The Twins need Nelson

[IndianaTwin]

Nelson Cruz needs to be a Twin.

 

Okay, now that you know where I’m coming from, let me explain how I got there. I understand the argument about using the DH spot to keep guys fresh, etc. But let’s look at how that breaks down in reality.

 

As of now, if the Twins were starting the season with 13 position players, it would seem to be Garver and Jeffers as the catchers; Sano, Polanco, Simmons, and Donaldson as infield starters; and Buxton and Kepler as starters in the outfield. That leaves a primary left fielder to fill defensively. Because I’ll treat Arraez as a utility player, I’m going to put Kirilloff in left, leaving three position players. I’ll go with Cave as the fourth outfielder, along with Rooker for his bat. Blankenhorn or Astudillo would probably be the options for the final spot, but with rookies in Jeffers, Kirilloff and Rooker, I don’t think they’ll want to start the season with that much inexperience, so I think they’ll sign a cheap veteran who can back up first and third. For purposes of this exercise, I’ll use Marwin Gonzalez as our placeholder.

 

So let’s look at an ideal situation, including a sharing of the DH spot.

• C: We’ll split the time with 81 games each for Garver and Jeffers, giving them each another 5 games at DH.
• 1B: Let’s plug in Sano for 130 games on defense, with another 20 at DH, and with Gonzalez starting the remaining 32 at 1B.
• 2B: Polanco gets 140 starts and Arraez 22.
• SS: Simmons starts 150 because of his outstanding defense, with Arraez getting the remaining 12. They could move Polanco there for the extra 12 and give Arraez an additional 12 at 2B, but I think they’ll want to leave Polanco in one spot. In practical terms, I’m assuming the three of them get all the starts at 2B and SS.
• 3B: They’ve named that they want to DH Donaldson some more to protect his legs, so I slotted him for 120 games at 3B and another 30 at DH. For the remaining games at 3B, I put in Arraez for 27 to use his bat, with 15 going to Gonzalez to keep him involved.
• RF: Kepler for 150 and Cave for 12.
• CF: Buxton for 140 and Cave for 22.
• LF: Kirilloff with 140 starts and Cave the remaining 22. For this exercise, I didn’t use Arraez out here, but I will in the next round.
• DH: If you’ve followed along, we’ve got 5 for Jeffers, 5 for Garver, 20 for Sano, and 30 for Donaldson. It would be possible to use some of the remainder for Arraez and Polanco in particular, but for simplicity, I gave them to Rooker. He’s not going to be in the majors if he isn’t playing with some regularity. (I’m also assuming only 153 DH starts because of interleague play.)

So, that gives the following number of starts: Simmons (150), Sano (150), Donaldson (150), Kepler (150), Polanco (140), Kirilloff (140), Buxton (140), Rooker (93), Garver (86), Jeffers (86), Arraez (61), Cave (56), Gonzalez (47). Probably the most egregious problem is only getting 61 for Arraez, but he could easily be apportioned some from Polanco, Kirilloff, and Donaldson.

 

Get real. That breakdown doesn’t make sense on two levels. First, it doesn’t take into account any injuries, and second, it doesn’t take into account Rocco’s roster patterns.

 

To the first, the only place to pick up starts in case of injury with this roster is with Arraez and Rooker, if the positions line up. Starting 56 and 47 games is already plenty Cave and Gonzalez, so we don’t want to go there. The other option is more rookies, but between Jeffers, Kirilloff and Rooker, rookies are already getting 22 percent of the starts, with 14 percent to very inexperienced guys in Garver, Arraez, and Cave. Contenders don’t plan for more than a third of their starts from that much youth, knowing that injuries would push that number even higher.

 

Second, when you look at the actual players and Rocco’s patterns, do we really expect four guys to play 150 games each and another three 140 each? Ain’t happening.

 

In 2019, we think of the Twins as having a lot of injuries, but I think the math showed it was a pretty average number for MLB. And on that team, Polanco was the only player who had more than 132 starts. Rocco gives guys lots of days off. Even last year, when the season was only two months long, Rosario was the only player who started more than 90 percent of games (more than 54 of 60). He started 55. Polanco (53), Sano (53) and Cruz (52) were close. Starting 90 percent of games in a regular is 145 or 146, so it’s best to think of something like 140 as being full time. In addition, that list doesn’t take into account the specifics of the people involved.

 

So with that in mind, let’s look at the list again, including some other observations.

• C: We’ll still split the time at 81 games each for Garver and Jeffers. But in the past two years, Rocco has only DHed a catcher four times, and that appears to have always been when he had three catchers on the roster, which this roster does not have. So I’m going to delete the DH games for Garver and Jeffers.
• 1B: Before 2020, Sano has never played more than three-fourths of the team’s games. He played 53 of 60 in 2020, which extrapolates to 143. It would be great to assume 150 games, but more realistically, I’m going to shoot for 140. In taking away 10 games, I took 5 from 1B and 5 from DH, leaving him with 125 and 15. I gave the extra 5 games to Gonzalez, giving Marwin 37 starts at 1B.
• 2B: Polanco did play more than 150 in 2019 and played 53 of 60 in 2020. Playing 2B should also be easier than SS, so I left him at 150 total games. However, some of his games in 2019 were as the DH, so I changed him to 140 at 2B and 10 at DH. That gives Arraez an extra 10 starts at 2B.
• SS: Similarly, Simmons has played more than 140 games in five of his seven full seasons, but didn’t in 2019 and only played 30 in 2020. Giving him 140 starts rather than 150 makes sense, with Arraez getting the extra 10. Again, Polanco could move here, but the bottom line is Simmons, Polanco, and Arraez getting all the starts at SS and 2B.
• RF: Kepler has largely started about three games out of four in his career. Rather than 150 starts, I dropped that to 130, with Cave getting the remaining 32.
• CF: Wouldn’t 140 games from Buxton be awesome? Wouldn’t 130? I’m being optimistic in shooting for 120, with the remaining 42 for Cave.
• LF: I don’t see Rocco starting a rookie with no at bats in AAA in 140 games, so I dropped it to 130 games for Kirilloff. My previous scenario had LF starts for Cave, but he’s already got 74 starts in CF and RF, which is more than I really want for him, so I gave the remaining starts to Arraez. Alternatively, some could go to Rooker.
• DH: Again if you’ve been following along, you’ll see that I essentially gave Jeffers and Garver’s 10 starts to Polanco, but I’ve taken away a total of 15 from Sano and Donaldson. In this exercise, I’ve given those to Arraez, leaving us with Rooker (93), Donaldson (20), Arraez (15), Sano (15) and Polanco (10). If you’d prefer, Rooker could take the LF starts, swapping with Arraez. There’s a strategy loss there, however, given that you’re more likely to move Arraez to another position than Rooker, so there’s greater likelihood of needing to sacrifice the DH in case of injury or miss out on a strategic opportunity.

Now, our starts look like this: Polanco (150), Sano (140), Simmons (140), Arraez (133), Kepler (130), Kirilloff (130), Donaldson (120), Rooker (93), Garver (81), Jeffers (81), Cave (74), Gonzalez (57).

 

That looks a lot more realistic, but it creates several problems in my mind:

1. We’re now at over 40 percent of starts going to 1st, 2nd, and 3rd year players, including the more than 20 percent that go to rookies, two of whom have no AAA experience.
2. There’s still no margin for injury, meaning we would have to bring up still more inexperience.
3. We’re up to Cave starting nearly half of the games and Marwin starting more than a third of them.
4. Simmons is already an average hitter at best. If Jeffers regresses or Garver doesn’t bounce back, we’ve got another issue.

In summary, this roster would have most days when the bottom of the order is rookie-inexperienced catcher-rookie-Marwin/Cave-Simmons. Having only four out of five from among Polanco, Buxton, Sano, Donaldson and Kepler can’t carry that much dead weight.

 

The best way to address these issues is with another experienced, effective bat. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the free agent bats left are Yadier Molina (not a hitter and not a positional need), Kolton Wong (not a hitter and not a positional need), Jackie Bradley Jr. (not a hitter, though he’d be an interesting positional addition to provide outfield insurance) and three others.

 

Among the remaining three, Marcel Ozuna would be a thumper, but our perception is that neither the years nor the money makes sense for the Twins. Justin Turner would be a good bat, and would change the equation dramatically from signing Marwin. I’m not aware that the Twins have been linked to him, however, but it would be an interesting addition as insurance for Donaldson and as a DH. It doesn’t seem likely.

 

So, in other words:

 

Welcome back, Nelson.

[ashbury]

Interesting analysis. I come at it from the other direction. I want to have an advantage over the opponent in the DH slot, as many games as possible. Assuming the talent evaluators feel Cruz has another year in the tank, he's a better chance of being that advantage than anyone we currently have on the roster. Sign him. Then let Rocco work his lineup mojo as you describe.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Interesting analysis. I come at it from the other direction. I want to have an advantage over the opponent in the DH slot, as many games as possible. Assuming the talent evaluators feel Cruz has another year in the tank, he's a better chance of being that advantage than anyone we currently have on the roster. Sign him. Then let Rocco work his lineup mojo as you describe.

 

I could have approached it that way, but that would have been too short of a post. Brevity is not one of my gifts. 

 

But you’re right. According to https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2020.shtml#all_team_output, ChiSox first basemen were the only position where a team had a greater competitive advantage over the rest of the league than the Twins had at DH. Having a significant advantage in one spot covers minor deficits in other areas, and when you get those kinds of advantages, you want to retain them. 

 

[Rosterman]

If Cruz is in, Rooker may be out. I would hope we get at least 100 starts from Cruz at DH. More if he can stay healthy, but you can run for him and work someone else in the slot.

 

Rosters will be at 26. Do you keep a third catcher? No necessary, except Garver/Kirilloff/Rooker would be backup at first.

 

I would be happy with Polanco/Gordon/Arraez being the extra infielders rotating around second and subbing for Donaldson.

 

They have to decide against Cave or Wade as the backup. Willians or Rooker fight it out for the added bench spot.

 

I picture the Twins will go with 12 pitchers out-of-the-gate, one being Thorpe as the long-man in the pen. Three lefties in the pen!

 

Spring training will be wonderful. 

 

The need is to get x-amount of games out of Cruz in 2021. Not needed for 2022 at this point.

 

 

. 

[Nine of twelve]

If we get the 2019 and 2020 Nelson Cruz I'm on board. I just have doubts that the 2021 Nelson Cruz will be the same player. Plus, it's time for the young-uns to show what they've got. I think we should thank him profusely for his contributions and wish him the all the best in his future endeavors. Except when he plays against us.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you we need to bring back Cruz. Although it was hard to wrap my head around the your information you presented without an equation to plug it into. But I think I finally figured it out. Your saying we need his experienced bat. We need everything that he brings to the table!

IMO Cruz will come back, but if he doesn't, I'm fine with that too if they don't bring in an out bat. My point is we have a lot of in house bats we need to utilize. I'd like to give full-time DH duty to Arraez so he can get his ABs and plug in players like Donaldson, Garver and Jeffers. I like the idea of keeping the players fresh, to maximize their production. To add my 2 ¢ I'd perfer Sano transition back and forth to 3B from 1B. Because I don't know how much or how long Donaldson will play 3B and Sano is the best sub. Arraez could transition to 1B much like Carew did.

I disagree with you about us having dead weight. Even those who don't have power still can hit at least average. Most players in the line up at least have the potential of hitting the ball out of the park. I'm optimistic that those who were in a slump will come out of it. Besides we have the defense that will limit the number of runs scored.

I'm echoing again your call for Cruz and almost certain that they will bring him back.

[Darius]

I’m not so sure the FO sees it the same way.

 

After signing Simmons, I could see them using that DH spot to get guys like Polanco, Arraez, Rooker, Kirilloff, Sano, Garver, Jeffers etc. ABs without playing defense every day.

 

There are also may be more days where Donaldson DHs in an attempt to keep him healthy. There’s also Larnach and Lewis that might blow the doors open this year and demand ABs.

 

I don’t think it’s a question of whether he’ll still produce at DH, but preparing a roster that’s likely not good enough to win a title for the future. It’s hard to justify running a 43 year old out there every day on a multi year deal with three top 100 prospects knocking on the door.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

You convinced me.   Plus Nelson is a very positive influence on everyone...players,  coaches,  manager, FO and me.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think it is obvious that Cruz will be back. He will probably be worse than he has been the past two years, but still one of the best bats on the team, and one of the best DHs in the league.

 

One year, $10mm, with a $2mm option on an $8mm second year. Hopefully he gets 100 starts for the Twins this year, and is healthy in October when they make an extended run in the postseason.

[yeahyabetcha]

I go back and forth on bringing Cruz back. On one hand he was the Twins best hitter the last two years and based on that he definitely would be worth another reasonable, 1 year deal. On the other hand, maybe it is time to see if Rooker, who would likely be the odd man out, is ready for the bigs.

[AceWrigley]

Having Nelson Cruz in the lineup also takes some pressure off the other hitters and helps their production, not to mention his clubhouse and team influence. Cruz's presence on the roster is more than the sum of its parts.

[Dman]

All I know is that the Twins weren't quite good enough without Cruz to win the division and with Cruz they have.  When he is on there is no one on the Twins who has a bat close to as good as Nelson.  At 40 if injured he won't help much but I think they should sign him until he actually does decline.  We can always rotate players through that spot if Nelson is struggling, but if Nelson is gone we can't get him back.

[rdehring]

Loved what Cruz did for this team the past 1+ years. Doubt he would be the same hitter in 2021. Therefore, I am in the camp that wants to split the DH job between players needing rest and Rooker. When one of those isn't signed into DH, it goes to Arraez who's bat needs to be in the lineup at least 150 games this summer.

 

All your projections had Arraez playing less than he should be.

[mnfireman]

Looks like MLB wants 154 game season (starting a month later), expanded play-offs and universal DH. Sounds like its in the hands of MLBPA now.

[Boswell]

We received the gift of Cruz for two years at a discount rate due to an AL-only DH. The table will turn in 2021 with greener pastures in the NL once the terms are settled. So it goes.

[Dodecahedron]

The Twins let Rosario go; they should be using that extra cash to sign Cruz. It would be surprising if this was not their plan all along.

 

This is likely just another Brett Favre moment. Maybe we will get to see Dave St. Peter drive Cruz to Target Field in a black SUV right before the season starts.

[insagt1]

It seems not good to have one of baseball's pure hitters (Arraez) already relegated to utility. With a lineup full of k's as it is, how do you keep him on the bench? I worry a lot more about Sano than whether Cruz has lost a bit of his pop. Sano had a terrible year in 2020. 25 or so HR's over 154 games will not compensate for 200+ k's. IMHO. If Donaldson and Buxton continue their injury path and if Garver is not the hitter we thought, Twins lineup could be a mess. Cruz was the only Twin who didn't disappear in the playoffs. The only one. No HR's yes, but he did drive in runs, few as there were.

 

I think for one more season, Twins need him back. As much as they ALL say otherwise, it will come down to money.

[umterp23]

I read clubhouse, player influence for Cruz but what is that and how is it measured?  Not sure how it gets measured other than guys say it because they like him in the clubhouse.  Aging DH with bad legs and his bat was getting slower in the strike zone on fast balls as the short season progressed. $12-$14M + for one year, I don't like it but I'm not cutting the check either.  I think money could be well spent in other areas of need, RP is my thought.  

[mnfireman]

MLBPA rejected MLB's proposal, time to sign him or publicly move on. I think with a 26 man roster there is room for him, and if the numbers aren't there by the All-Star break or so, he could be traded or released (or asked to retire and become part of the coaching staff). 

[MABB1959]

I think the fans want a player like Cruz.  We haven't had anything like him since the Kirby/Hunter days.  A player that you can wait to come up to bat with all the anticipation of hitting a HR.  We have put up with not spending the money for many years now.  We deserve Cruz!

[The Wise One]

If healthy Cruz played. Baldelli rests position players, he doesn't rest bats. Pretty much it makes the OP's statement illogical The Twins needed to sign Crus because of his production. Somebody said he declined in the second half of last year. Well, even though Cruz declined last September and October, his OPS for that time was still higher than any other Twins player.