Jose Berrios Extension: Who Says No?

[tvagle]

 

That's massively overpaying him for his arbitration years and paying him to dollar for FA years. Pass.

If you believe Berrios becomes a #1 then you're going to have to pay to lock him up

 

He hasn't signed a supposed extension attempt the last two years so up the ante to sign your homegrown dude

 

As for overpaying for Arb years I present one Kyle Gibson as a baseline:

 

Gibson Arb2 - $4.2M

Gibson Arb3 - $8.125M

 

So if Berrios (we'd all agree has had a better start to his career and has better stuff than the Gibbler) sticks with Arbitration he should Double his Arb1 to Arb2

and Arb3 at $15M seems to fall inline

 

How does this seem to be a massive overpay for Arb years?

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

That's massively overpaying him for his arbitration years and paying him to dollar for FA years. Pass.

I don't think so. He's projected to get the 5.4 this season. He's on par with Noah who's projected to get 10mil this season. 15mil in year 3 would not be unexpected. I'd guess tvagle has that allocated about right.

[akmanak]

Lol, again most seem not to realize he mentioned not being happy with this team and we are talking about the Twins here.

 

Berrios is as good as gone.

[SwainZag]

 

Lol, again most seem not to realize he mentioned not being happy with this team and we are talking about the Twins here.

Berrios is as good as gone.

 

Do you mean the comment on Twitter when Morin was traded?  Is there anything else that's ever been out there that Berrios isn't happy in Minnesota?  Here is here for AT LEAST 3 more years, they have a solid core, a contending team and an organization he has been with nearly 8 years.  Saying he is good as gone is complete and pure speculation.

[prouster]

Horses I've talked to here in AZ dont even know Minneapolis is in the US.

 

Anecdotally.

So maybe that's why you get so bent out of shape when humans make decisions you don't like—talking to too many horses.

[drivlikejehu]

I keep reading on here that Berrios isn't good enough to lead the rotation anyway, so why should I be that worried about whether he's pitching for the Twins in (checks calendar) 2023?

 

In any case, his declining fastball velocity is concerning. Three more years of his services, with no long-term risk, sounds fine to me. 

[Monkeypaws]

Selling Berrios short is in style now.

 

I think we forget how young this guy is. He is 25 until next May. He is 2 months older than Gonsalves, 5 months older than Stewart. He’s only half a year older than Griffin Jax, and 7 months older than Romero.

 

Yet he has been out pitching them all at the major league level, and for years.

 

Last season Berrios was in the top ten for AL pitchers in the following categories:
ERA, WHIP/9, BB/9,K/9, IP, CG, K/BB, HR/9, ERA+, FIP.

 

11th in Ks, 12th in wins. He also placed top 10 in multiple categories in 2018.

 

Given his devotion to his physical conditioning, and the likelihood that there is still room for improvement, investing in him is smart money. I sure think he has another level given his age and work ethic.

 

Granted he has a down period now and then, but he is just entering his prime. I'm hoping Falvine throw mad money his way.

[USAFChief]

Seems like if there was mutual interest in an extension, there would already be one in place.

[PDX Twin]

 

Horses I've talked to here in AZ dont even know Minneapolis is in the US.

Anecdotally.

 

Straight from the horse's mouth, I presume.

[Thrylos]

 

Horses I've talked to here in AZ dont even know Minneapolis is in the US.

Anecdotally.

 

Did you hear it from the horses' mouths?

[Rosterman]

Yopu can agmble that Berrios might have a bad season this or next season, thus a lower arbitration. But at some point, once he reaches free agency at his current level of play, he would easily be in the $15 million (today) range. Chances are he will be approaching the $20 a season range. 

 

The question is what does it take to keep the guy for four mroe seasons with an OPTION for a fifth. Or do you go and try and get him for 7 years and, say, $100 milion which is a lot of security. But is not a great deal if Jose Berrios escapes injury and pitches for a team that gives him on-field support.

 

There is, sadly, no loyalty in baseball. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Granted he has a down period now and then, but he is just entering his prime. I'm hoping Falvine throw mad money his way.

What do you consider "mad money"? I think most everyone here would take him on a Severino or Nola deal (4 years, $40-45 mil, plus a team option).

[FormerMinnasotan]

While I’m not sold on Berrios teaching true ace status I still see him as one of the pieces the Twins need to lock up long term as he still is a quality asset for the Twins. Problem is, each year he pitches well or improves drives up his asking price. If the Twins are serious of keeping him they need this extension this year or he will be too expensive to keep. Honestly they should have extended him last year when they could have done something like 6 yrs/$66 million. Right now Berrios can command between $15-$18 mil per season, after this year provided more success he’ll want over $20 mil/season.

[wabene]

Selling Berrios short is in style now.

 

I think we forget how young this guy is. He is 25 until next May. He is 2 months older than Gonsalves, 5 months older than Stewart. He’s only half a year older than Griffin Jax, and 7 months older than Romero.

 

Yet he has been out pitching them all at the major league level, and for years.

 

Last season Berrios was in the top ten for AL pitchers in the following categories:

ERA, WHIP/9, BB/9,K/9, IP, CG, K/BB, HR/9, ERA+, FIP.

 

11th in Ks, 12th in wins. He also placed top 10 in multiple categories in 2018.

 

Given his devotion to his physical conditioning, and the likelihood that there is still room for improvement, investing in him is smart money. I sure think he has another level given his age and work ethic.

 

Granted he has a down period now and then, but he is just entering his prime. I'm hoping Falvine throw mad money his way.

Check please!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yopu can agmble that Berrios might have a bad season this or next season, thus a lower arbitration. But at some point, once he reaches free agency at his current level of play, he would easily be in the $15 million (today) range. Chances are he will be approaching the $20 a season range. 

 

The question is what does it take to keep the guy for four mroe seasons with an OPTION for a fifth. Or do you go and try and get him for 7 years and, say, $100 milion which is a lot of security. But is not a great deal if Jose Berrios escapes injury and pitches for a team that gives him on-field support.

 

There is, sadly, no loyalty in baseball. 

 

There is no loyalty in business at all....why should baseball be different?

[ewen21]

 

There is no loyalty in business at all....why should baseball be different?

No one has a guaranteed salary in the real world.  Why should baseball be any different?

[ewen21]

Mike, you seem to be on a mission to aggressively defend the lofty status of major league baseball players.  They have agents.  They have the most powerful union in the world.  They get guaranteed money and yet you've assigned yourself as an advocate for them in your spare time.

 

You have been rather intense in this area this offseason.  No offense, man.  I am entertained by it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No one has a guaranteed salary in the real world.  Why should baseball be any different?

 

because that's what they've collectively bargained and agreed to, and yes, there are plenty of contracts in the "real world".

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, you seem to be on a mission to aggressively defend the lofty status of major league baseball players.  They have agents.  They have the most powerful union in the world.  They get guaranteed money and yet you've assigned yourself as an advocate for them in your spare time.

 

You have been rather intense in this area this offseason.  No offense, man.  I am entertained by it.

 

I'd rather they get the money than owners, since those are the only two real choices. And, that they have more freedom to choose their employers. Yes. For sure. 

[wabene]

Lol, again most seem not to realize he mentioned not being happy with this team and we are talking about the Twins here.

Berrios is as good as gone.

Huh?

I keep reading on here that Berrios isn't good enough to lead the rotation anyway, so why should I be that worried about whether he's pitching for the Twins in (checks calendar) 2023?

 

In any case, his declining fastball velocity is concerning. Three more years of his services, with no long-term risk, sounds fine to me.

 

Berrios seems to like it here. We had some success last year so the timing could be right to talk him into signing a deal that gives us 2 of his free agent years. That would keep him here until he is about 30. Perfect. You are only risking 2 years.His lack of ideal size along with his yearly fades do give me pause but you know the guy will work for it. I did like the way he bounced back at the end of the year. I'd bet on him. I wouldn't be surprised if he wanted to play out the string so I think we would have to pay retail unlike the extensions we signed last year.

[ewen21]

 

because that's what they've collectively bargained and agreed to, and yes, there are plenty of contracts in the "real world".

Mike, please.  This is a classic deflection and it is pretty weak.  Tell me where someone can work someplace and get guaranteed money for years without any concern for performance.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, please.  This is a classic deflection and it is pretty weak.  Tell me where someone can work someplace and get guaranteed money for years without any concern for performance.  

 

any place they sign a multi year contract. Which is what players sign.

 

The other option is that they are free agents every day, like everyone else.

 

 

[ewen21]

 

I'd rather they get the money than owners, since those are the only two real choices. And, that they have more freedom to choose their employers. Yes. For sure. 

 

I don't give the owners a moment's thought.  YOu seem to have a deep resentment for them.

And no.....players should not have guaranteed money.  Owners should be able to exercise an option like players do.  An owner should be able to hit the eject button a contract within 600 days of signing a player.

 

 

[ewen21]

 

any place they sign a multi year contract. Which is what players sign.

 

The other option is that they are free agents every day, like everyone else.

Wrong sir!  Wrong.

 

You are dreaming if you think this kind of setup exists anywhere else but in baseball.  We don't actually NEED baseball. I love it and I am somewhat addicted to it, but when the players went on strike in 1994 that was it for me for about 5 years.  If they think they can throw their weight around they are sorely mistaken.  The bubble will burst soon if they aren't careful.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't give the owners a moment's thought.  YOu seem to have a deep resentment for them.

And no.....players should not have guaranteed money.  Owners should be able to exercise an option like players do.  An owner should be able to hit the eject button a contract within 600 days of signing a player.

 

I don't care about the owners one way or the other. I want workers to get the money they create more than owners. Nothing more or less.

 

Players don't have that freedom. No business can cancel an employment contract just because they want to (where there is a signed contract). 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wrong sir!  Wrong.

 

You are dreaming if you think this kind of setup exists anywhere else but in baseball.  We don't actually NEED baseball. I love it and I am somewhat addicted to it, but when the players went on strike in 1994 that was it for me for about 5 years.  If they think they can throw their weight around they are sorely mistaken.  The bubble will burst soon if they aren't careful.

 

What does the bubble have to do with how the revenue is divided?

 

 

[Shaitan]

 

Berrios.

 

Why would he accept any deal from Minnesota, given that this state stinks, the taxes are outrageous, and his wife has a job elsewhere?

I know this is a joke, but this is exactly the difference between being a free agent and being under team control.

[bighat]

 

I’d offer him the contract they were going to give Wheeler.

 

Yep. His numbers blow guys like BumG and Wheeler out of the water, frankly. He knows it and his agent sure as heck knows it too.

[Mike Sixel]

He has multiple years of not being a FA, you don't pay full price for those years.....

[tony&rodney]

 

Mike, please.  This is a classic deflection and it is pretty weak.  Tell me where someone can work someplace and get guaranteed money for years without any concern for performance.  

Try government, large corporations, banking, ... whatever ... this is a baseball site and business comparisons are not very entertaining. I will not complain about the Pohlads because I do not know them that well and they are supporters in many areas of Minnesota causes. Nevertheless, professional sports teams rake in the dough playing in facilities paid for by the public. I'm happy the team turns a profit every year because it means a robust team. Nevertheless, athletes have a very minute success rate and even those who make it perform at bargain rates for years. Joe Mauer has been the object of some ridiculous comments, yet how many bobble-head days were there last year along with the retirement day, etc. These were precisely to draw paying customers through the gates. Have you ever met anyone who paid to watch an owner or writer play baseball? A few have played amateur weekend baseball. I have no idea, but perhaps Mike gets tired of fans who dish on the players and keep alive the ideal that the owners take all the risks. 

The topic is Berrios though and he absolutely should be offered a generous long term contract to keep a good pitcher around Target Field and help the Twins maintain as a competitive team. However, if Berrios is not open to an extension the Twins should also consider all of their other options including trades.