Jose Berrios Extension: Who Says No?

[MMMordabito]

Which Twins fan doesn't want Jose Berrios wearing our favorite team's uniform for a long time?  I'm guessing it's somewhere around Tom Steyer's current polling rate.

 

What would it take to keep him for several years? I tend to look at the Aaron Nola contract, but I'm feeling it will take a little more.  Jose isn't stupid.  He knows we love him.  He also knows his services would be in high demand come FA time.

 

My proposal:

 

4 years/$49 mill + Option 1 of 2024 @ $20 mill w/ $2 mill buyout + Option 2 of 2025 @ $23 mill w/ $5 mill buyout

 

There could also be bonuses in there for All-Star appearances, Gold Gloves, Cy Youngs and Series MVP awards.

 

2020: $7 mill

2021: $12 mill

2022: $14 mill

2023: $16 mill

2024: $2 mill/$20 mill

2025: $5 mill/$23 mill

 

So it's really 4/$51 mill with a potential for 6/$92 mill

 

Who says no?

 

Berrios would be sitting right between the current ages of Bumgarner and Ryu at the end of the max, so he would still have a chance for another big deal barring health or downturn.

 

I would honestly rather make a deal like this than sign any of the remaining Free Agents.  I know it doesn't move the needle immediately, but it sure as hell keeps the window open longer.

[Mike Sixel]

Berrios.

 

And, why can't you do this and sign free agents?

[MMMordabito]

 

Berrios.

And, why can't you do this and sign free agents?

 

You can, but if I had to choose ....

 

What do you think it would take? More in the Arb years? More in the FA Buyout year? Only one option year?  

[Mike Sixel]

You can, but if I had to choose ....

 

What do you think it would take? More in the Arb years? More in the FA Buyout year? Only one option year?

Somewhere between five and ten million more in the first four years, I'd guess, but it's a guess.

[Mike Sixel]

Also, if I have to choose, I add a major league pitcher. They are a legit playoff team, this year. They need one more good starter this year.

[howeda7]

I'd be more generous upfront since we have lots of $ and no one to spend it on, and only try to get 2 years of FA.

 

2020: $12 million

2021: $12 million

2022: $12 million

2023: $14 million

2024: $16 million

 

Total: 5 years/$66 million. If he plays out arbitration, he would make ~$22 million in those years, so he would have to get $22 million/year in FA to match this.

[amjgt]

Depending on what happens on the FA market the rest of this offseason (if we still have extra budget in February), I’d “front load” it more. Same salary all 4 years

[Vanimal46]

He’s turned down extensions the last 2 offseasons IIRC. Doesn’t appear at this point Berrios wants to lock himself in long term.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Berrios is now at the same service time level as Nola and Severino when they signed extensions last offseason. There was an article here comparing Berrios to them at the time:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32297-article-what-might-a-jose-berrios-contract-extension-look-like/

 

Nola got 4/45 with one option year (at $11.75 mil net after subtracting the buyout), and Severino got 4/40 with one option year too (at $12.25 mil net after buyout).

 

Note those figures both include the option buyout in the guararantee. So your Berrios proposal could similarly be listed as 4/51 with two option years (I guess $23 mil net for the first one including the 2nd year buyout, then $18 mil net for the second one after buyout).

 

The extra money might be enough to get the second option, but on the other hand, those guys might have taken a little less to get their freedom sooner, and Berrios could choose that too. He's not old, but signing over control of your first 3 free agent seasons is not something players take lightly either!

 

Edit to add: Severino was almost a year younger than Berrios is now. Nola was only a month a half older, which I found surprising as he was a college draftee.

[Vanimal46]

Berrios is now at the same service time level as Nola and Severino when they signed extensions last offseason. There was an article here comparing Berrios to them at the time:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32297-article-what-might-a-jose-berrios-contract-extension-look-like/

 

Nola got 4/45 with one option year (at $11.75 mil net after subtracting the buyout), and Severino got 4/40 with one option year too (at $12.25 mil net after buyout).

 

Note those figures both include the option buyout in the guararantee. So your Berrios proposal could similarly be listed as 4/51 with two option years (I guess $23 mil net for the first one including the 2nd year buyout, then $18 mil net for the second one after buyout).

 

The extra money might be enough to get the second option, but on the other hand, those guys might have taken a little less to get their freedom sooner, and Berrios could choose that too. He's not old, but signing over control of your first 3 free agent seasons is not something players take lightly either!

Aaron Gleeman also mentioned Nola’s contract and Carlos Martinez as potential comps for Berrios earlier this offseason.

 

https://theathletic.com/1368529/2019/11/11/twins-jose-berrios-byron-buxton-contract-potential-extensions/

 

I also wonder if the lingering CBA issue is affecting extension discussions...

[Mike Sixel]

I do think the CBA issues might be an issue, but hard to say.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Aaron Gleeman also mentioned Nola’s contract and Carlos Martinez as potential comps for Berrios earlier this offseason.

https://theathletic.com/1368529/2019/11/11/twins-jose-berrios-byron-buxton-contract-potential-extensions/

I also wonder if the lingering CBA issue is affecting extension discussions...

One figures that the CBA (and "collusion" market) would have been affecting them last offseason too...

 

Martinez would be a great example for the Twins -- he had 3 years service time then just like Berrios now, and he signed for 5/51 plus 2 option years. So he signed away control of 4 free agent seasons! Roughly same age as Berrios too.

 

I feel like if Berrios was willing to sign something like that, they could have come to an agreement earlier, like last offseason.

[cmoss84]

Absolutely lock him up ASAP. 

 

Maybe something like 6/90 and a club option for a 7th year for $20 mil.

 

But yes, we do need to add an additional pitcher or two right now. Please. 

[srlarson]

everyone here is assuming he wants to sign long term here.......the talk needs to start with what do you want?  What do you see the next 4, 5, 6 years looking like?  

 

Then see if there is common ground.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

imho if you up the 6 year offer by about 20mil total you'd have his attention. 6/115 I know that sounds a lot, and he's going to earn significant amount more in these next 3 years than the arb route. But you're buying out 3 years of his FA. Then you just have to look at what Wheeler just got....

 

His 3 arb years he's looking at around 32mil I would suspect. 3 years of Wheeler's type of deal is around 71mil. That puts us at 103 mil. I would have no issue of paying him an extra 12 mil for the security of having him for 6 years.

[prouster]

I’d offer him the contract they were going to give Wheeler.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I’d offer him the contract they were going to give Wheeler.

I wouldn't argue against that at all, and the Twins would be getting a great deal based on the present markets. And if I'm his agent he doesn't sign for less than that 20mil AAV. In looking at my offer again I'd be willing to do 6/120 too w/o batting an eye.

 

If he doesn't sign an extension he reaches FA at 28 y/o. If he pitches the next 3 seasons like the last 3 there is no doubt in my mind that he gets an 8 year deal for 300mil. Or more.

 

If we want to extend him we are going to have to be very generous.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I wouldn't argue against that at all, and the Twins would be getting a great deal based on the present markets. And if I'm his agent he doesn't sign for less than that 20mil AAV. In looking at my offer again I'd be willing to do 6/120 too w/o batting an eye.

 

If he doesn't sign an extension he reaches FA at 28 y/o. If he pitches the next 3 seasons like the last 3 there is no doubt in my mind that he gets an 8 year deal for 300mil. Or more.

 

If we want to extend him we are going to have to be very generous.

 

I agree. Plus you have to factor in the rest of what he is dealing with in this organization. You think he doesn't see whats going on here? Competitive guys are not going to want to stay here when the management structure doesn't feel they have to compete. Santana flew the coup as quick as he could once he figured out the real value he had. This is the same situation IMO. 

[MMMordabito]

 

everyone here is assuming he wants to sign long term here.......the talk needs to start with what do you want?  What do you see the next 4, 5, 6 years looking like?  

 

Then see if there is common ground.  

 

I would like to think that he would at least give the Twins a chance, but he may want to be in the spotlight or in a warmer part of the country.  I hope there is some common ground.  If Falvine can't figure out how to keep a career Twin in a Twins uniform, then maybe we don't have the right guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would like to think that he would at least give the Twins a chance, but he may want to be in the spotlight or in a warmer part of the country.  I hope there is some common ground.  If Falvine can't figure out how to keep a career Twin in a Twins uniform, then maybe we don't have the right guys.

They have already signed Kepler and Polanco long-term. Hopefully they can extend more soon.

[Tomj14]

 

They have already signed Kepler and Polanco long-term. Hopefully they can extend more soon.

I agree, but Berrios is going to cost more than what Kepler and Polanco got combined, at this point I don't get the feeling they front office is going to go that far, plus they don't seem willing to go 5 years or more on pitchers.

Sadly, I see them trying to get by on the cheap with him or maybe not cheap but maybe 4 years instead of 5, him not wanting to do that (he seems very confident in himself, in a good way) and the Twins doing a Viola/Santana type trade, the only good thing with this is they really do seem to evaluate other teams well.

Plus on a bitter sarcastic note, more payroll flexibility.:

[tvagle]

If you're gonna extend him and you think he's your guy...I'd play this year out and offer up $100M for 5 years

 

2020 $5.400M This years ARB $

2021 $10.000M

2022 $15.000M

2023 $20.000M

2024 $25.000M

2025 $30.000M

 

Jose gets this years going rate for 2nd Tier Tainted Ace

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Berrios.

 

Why would he accept any deal from Minnesota, given that this state stinks, the taxes are outrageous, and his wife has a job elsewhere?

[mikelink45]

I cannot do this kind of math, but if the Twins are going to continue to compete they cannot let their homegrown talent leave.  They know what is needed, so do it.  They might not be willing to sign the other teams aces, but damn it, sign ours. 

[scottz]

Where does Berrios keep his horses?

[cardsfan]

Those last two months for Berrios were pretty bad last season. 38 earned runs in 58.2 innings.

 

You don't know if he will miss time over the next 3 years with injuries and yet you want to dole out for 6 years. I say do arbitration. You have a few years to trade him if you come up with other starters.

 

This isn't an ace pitcher though he has the potential.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Where does Berrios keep his horses?

Minnesota, but the horse taxes here are too high.

[howeda7]

 

If you're gonna extend him and you think he's your guy...I'd play this year out and offer up $100M for 5 years

 

2020 $5.400M This years ARB $

2021 $10.000M

2022 $15.000M

2023 $20.000M

2024 $25.000M

2025 $30.000M

 

Jose gets this years going rate for 2nd Tier Tainted Ace

That's massively overpaying him for his arbitration years and paying him to dollar for FA years. Pass.

[howeda7]

 

 

Berrios.

 

Why would he accept any deal from Minnesota, given that this state stinks, the taxes are outrageous, and his wife has a job elsewhere?

It may stink but it doesn't smell. Smell doesn't travel well in -30. That's why we can have a garbage burner right next to the stadium.

[USAFChief]

Minnesota, but the horse taxes here are too high.

Horses I've talked to here in AZ dont even know Minneapolis is in the US.

 

Anecdotally.