How high and long would you go for Ryu?

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think it's as simple as "do they want the guy or not." I think they would love to have him in the rotation for 2020, that's the simple part. Do they want to commit ~20M a year to a guy with his fragility for 4 years?

But if 4 years is what it's going to take to get him to Minnesota, and you aren't willing to go 4 years, then you aren't actually interested, for practical purposes.

 

Just like when Darvish makes it known that he's not signing without a player opt out. Making an offer that doesn't include one is just for show.

[Vanimal46]

I don't think it's as simple as "do they want the guy or not." I think they would love to have him in the rotation for 2020, that's the simple part. Do they want to commit ~20M a year to a guy with his fragility for 4 years?

That’s what insurance is for. Do you think he’s going to be so damaged it will be impossible to trade him in the future? Do you think the Twins are so cash strapped they can’t eat whatever is left on year 4 of the contract?

 

As we’re seeing, the FO can’t approach free agency looking at a spreadsheet and never adjusting their valuation. They’re going to lose 99% of the time.

 

This FO is reliving my dating days in high school. Lots of interest, targeting an impact girlfriend. And striking out every time.

[Mr. Brooks]

That’s what insurance is for. Do you think he’s going to be so damaged it will be impossible to trade him in the future? Do you think the Twins are so cash strapped they can’t eat whatever is left on year 4 of the contract?

 

As we’re seeing, the FO can’t approach free agency looking at a spreadsheet and never adjusting their valuation. They’re going to lose 99% of the time.

 

This FO is reliving my dating days in high school. Lots of interest, targeting an impact girlfriend. And striking out every time.

Insurance only covers an entire missed season, not partial.

There is plenty that can go wrong that won't be covered by insurance.

 

Like all insurance, baseball insurance is a scam.

[laloesch]

 

I don't think it's as simple as "do they want the guy or not."  I think they would love to have him in the rotation for 2020, that's the simple part.  Do they want to commit ~20M a year to a guy with his fragility for 4 years?     

Sure it is. If you think he's the guy for you and you have a REAL HARD time signing free agents then you overpay and bring him in to change that. They should have REALLY gone in on Wheeler and topped everyone else. 

[howeda7]

It's going to take like 4/$80 to get him. They don't have any better options. I don't have a $%^ about the payroll situation in 2023 right now. They should do it, but they won't. And Kuechel's going to require close to the same.

[howeda7]

 

 

Sure it is.  If you think he's the guy for you and you have a REAL HARD time signing free agents then you overpay and bring him in to change that.  They should have REALLY gone in on Wheeler and topped everyone else. 

If they had offered Wheeler 5/$125 or MadBaum $5/100 on day 1 of FA, I think they both would have taken it. You can't slow play everything, waiting for a "deal", especially when you're the Twins.

[laloesch]

 

If they had offered Wheeler 5/$125 or MadBaum $5/100 on day 1 of FA, I think they both would have taken it. You can't slow play everything, waiting for a "deal", especially when you're the Twins.

 

I would have certainly have made the Wheeler offer. The MadBum offer you have to think about a bit, but if that's what it would have taken it, well it is what it is.  

[cmoss84]

 

I don't think it's as simple as "do they want the guy or not."  I think they would love to have him in the rotation for 2020, that's the simple part.  Do they want to commit ~20M a year to a guy with his fragility for 4 years?     

 

It's pronounced Fra-Gi-Lay.

[ewen21]

With his injury history, documented odd training habits and build.....I am not sure how people are confident he can maintain the high level of effectiveness WHEN HE PITCHES. At age 33 no less.

[dex8425]

 

Is Ryu at 4 years really a dumb idea?   If we lose out on a year or two of injury yes, or his stuff isnt as good as it has been the last year.  I am really thinking Wes Johnson could be great for Ryu.  Making him pitch in a better "kinetic or ergonomical way"  limiting injuries, maintaining current velocity and possibly slightly increasing velocity.  All this while his current pitch velocity and current pitches really shouldn't be putting as much stress on the body for injuries as what he has historically had.  If Wes signs off, I think he could easily be a steal pitching well into his late years such as Rich Hill. 

 

He's a much different pitcher than Rich Hill though, plus Hill pitched out of the pen early in his career. There's a reason why steamer, and rotoworld project Ryu pitching 170 innings in 2020 with an era in the high 3's. That's not worth 20 million dollars a year. I'd rather have Kuechel or Teheran, because at least you know they're going to eat innings.

 

 

[Thrylos]

Ryu will be 33 by the beginning of the season, is not fit, has never pitched more than 182 innings or made more than 30 starts a season, has only 3 pitches (FB, CB, CH), and comes from a career season.

 

I would not offer more than 1 year plus an option; I'd rather let the WSux overpay.  He is a year older than Keuchel who even has been more durable.   At this point I'd rather give Keuchel a 2+1, but I think that the way forward for the Twins should be a trade.

[prouster]

1. Ryu at four years is a dumb idea.

2. We cannot begin 2020 with Berrios, Odo, and three rookies in the rotation.

 

This seems spot on to me. The question they have to answer is which alternative is worse. We can probably my guess how most people on Twins Daily would answer that question, but there’s merit to both sides.

 

The other way they could approach this is to see if they can solve number 2 without having to resort to number 1.

[RaoulDuke]

I would do 4/80.  They need someone to start game 1 or 2 of a playoff series for the next couple years, gotta pay for that pitcher via risk in years/$ or pay for him in prospects.

 

Ryu is a big gamble with his injury history but has also been a very good pitcher when healthy.  They don't necessarily need him to throw a ton of innings and be a workhorse, and 4 years isn't going to cripple the franchise should he implode.

[bunsen82]

 

He's a much different pitcher than Rich Hill though, plus Hill pitched out of the pen early in his career. There's a reason why steamer, and rotoworld project Ryu pitching 170 innings in 2020 with an era in the high 3's. That's not worth 20 million dollars a year. I'd rather have Kuechel or Teheran, because at least you know they're going to eat innings.

Exactly how?  Both Hill and Ryu top out in the low 90s upper 80's on the fastball and are control pitchers looking for groundouts.  Pretty similar to me.   We would need to improve our defense to maximize Ryu.  The last 2 years Ryu has greatly out performed his projected stats.  If he is healthy don't you think he can do it again?  Ryu has benefitted from 2 things, hitters trying to jack the ball out of the park on early pitches and getting ahead in the count and creating weak contact. He was top 3 in being ahead in counts last year.  It changes slightly coming to the American League but more and more I think he could be our best hope at finding a true ace and at a relatively reasonable rate. 

[RaoulDuke]

His stuff should age well, he is a pitcher not a thrower.  Easy consistent delivery, has deception to it, great control, varies speed, works in/ out.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hyun-jin-ryu-has-stepped-up-his-game/

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Just looked over Ryu’s stats again. Damn. 6 K/BB the last two years! The problem is age. Like Ervin Santana before, the question is not if, but when the end will come. And it is almost inevitably about 35 or 36. That’s why I think they should avoid four years.

[adjacent]

Why not going 4 yrs. front-loaded?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ryu will be 33 by the beginning of the season, is not fit, has never pitched more than 182 innings or made more than 30 starts a season, has only 3 pitches (FB, CB, CH), and comes from a career season.

 

I would not offer more than 1 year plus an option; I'd rather let the WSux overpay.  He is a year older than Keuchel who even has been more durable.   At this point I'd rather give Keuchel a 2+1, but I think that the way forward for the Twins should be a trade.

 

Who is available that is close to the ERA leader? Or, as you insist they get, an ace?

[FormerMinnasotan]

I would go as high as 4 yrs/$80 mil. I know the injury risk, but we have decent depth in the minors at starting pitching so we shouldn’t be worried when (not if) he gets hurt.

 

Of course though...the Twins will never pull the string on this deal. The FO is just as risk adverse as the Terry Ryan FO from years past. So the likelihood the Twins sign Ryu is IMO less than 1%.

[Thrylos]

 

Who is available that is close to the ERA leader? Or, as you insist they get, an ace?

ERA? Really?

 

Sale.

[Mike Sixel]

 

ERA? Really?

 

Sale.

 

Is Sale available? And, that ERA comment was shorthand for very good to great. Pick another if you want.

 

What would you trade for Sale, who I don't think is available?

[howeda7]

If it's 4/$80 for Ryu or 3/$60 for Keuchel, give me Keuchel.

[Thrylos]

 

 

What would you trade for Sale, who I don't think is available?

I'd letter them pick 2 from group a  or 1 from group a and 2 from group b:

 

a. Buxton or Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Cavaco, Javier

 

b. Balazovic, Gordon, Enlow, Calderino, Severino, Celestino, etc...

 

or if they preferred

 

I'd trade them Berrios and 1 from group a or 2 from group b if they add Eovaldi and eat $10-15M of the total contracts

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd letter them pick 2 from group a  or 1 from group a and 2 from group b:

 

a. Buxton or Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Cavaco, Javier

 

b. Balazovic, Gordon, Enlow, Calderino, Severino, Celestino, etc...

 

or if they preferred

 

I'd trade them Berrios and 1 from group a or 2 from group b if they add Eovaldi and eat $10-15M of the total contracts

 

No chance I do two of Buxton and Lewis (or Lanarch/Kiriloff). 

 

And no way I trade them Berrios, who is about the same, and cheaper and more likely to stay healthy. No way.

 

But, you answered, and we just disagree, so that's cool of you!

[Thrylos]

 

No chance I do two of Buxton and Lewis (or Lanarch/Kiriloff). 

 

And no way I trade them Berrios, who is about the same, and cheaper and more likely to stay healthy. No way.

 

But, you answered, and we just disagree, so that's cool of you!

My take is that the Twins window is open just that much and that Sale (and Eovaldi) will help them win it all more than any non-ready prospects or an oft-injured guy without whom (pretty much) they won 101 games last season (plus I am disappointed with Berrios's 3 year flatline of non progression pretty much.)

 

 

[dex8425]

 

No chance I do two of Buxton and Lewis (or Lanarch/Kiriloff). 

 

And no way I trade them Berrios, who is about the same, and cheaper and more likely to stay healthy. No way.

 

But, you answered, and we just disagree, so that's cool of you!

For Chris Sale?! I would trade Buxton and Royce in a heartbeat for Chris Sale. The contract would hurt a bit. I wouldn't trade Berrios just because we're creating another huge hole there, plus like you said Berrios is cheap, has been durable and eats innings. Sale has finished in the top five of CY young voting what, five times? Seven time all star and he's only 30. On a HOF trajectory. 

 

Larnach and Kiriloff would sting, just because we're going to need Larnach in the outfield before we need Royce up here, and I think Larnach looks like a pretty good bet to be Rosario-esque, at least. But they're still prospects. Even first round picks turn out a small percentage of the time. 

[Brandon]

Here is how I would structure my offer so I can win the bid.

3 year 66 million with 1 million incentives for 160 innings and 2 or 3 million at 180 innings. 5 million buyout of an option 4 season that becomes guaranteed with either 185 innings pitched year 3 or 350 innings over years 2 & 3. Year four has a salary of 23 million with same incentives. Total guarantee is 71 million with the potential to be 101 million over 4 years.

 

I mean go ahead and play with the numbers but that I how I would structure my offer to give him maximum dollars while minimizing my risk.

 

You still have to structure it so the guarantee is high compared to others and the incentives are reachable and reasonable. I may be willing to make the 5 million buyout a 10 million buyout. That guarantees Ryu practically 25.33 a year for 3 and makes it a smaller choice to accept/ reject the option.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd letter them pick 2 from group a  or 1 from group a and 2 from group b:

 

a. Buxton or Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Cavaco, Javier

 

b. Balazovic, Gordon, Enlow, Calderino, Severino, Celestino, etc...

 

or if they preferred

 

I'd trade them Berrios and 1 from group a or 2 from group b if they add Eovaldi and eat $10-15M of the total contracts

 

I'm not against bringing Sale in... but he was a league average starter last season (albeit his peripherals were still very good)... think about that. He's also getting older. 

 

I have zero problems if the team thinks they can fix him and get the old Sale back. He should not cost this much to get though given his contract, nor would it make sense to trade Berrios for him, who is both 5 years younger and out performed in him 2019. 

 

[USAFChief]

They've pretty much backed themselves into a corner at this point. Ryu is a must, damn the cost.

[Riverbrian]

 

They've pretty much backed themselves into a corner at this point. Ryu is a must, damn the cost.

 

He's a Free Agency must (or Kuechel)... that can't be denied. 

 

They can also trade for pitchers but that will only perpetuate the cycle of needing to over pay for a Ryu type in the future because they will lose the guys who can become the people who make the future Ryu type unnecessary. 

 

Either way... you gotta pay with something to get something and we need something. 

 

We got cash to spend right now... I'd spend it.