Free Agent Pitching

[goulik]

Gleeman on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast pointed out that a qualifying offer to Pineda would be on a prorated salary because of the suspension meaning it would actually only be in the $13 million range so the Twins really should give 2 QO’s today. If they keep both guys in house for $31 million, they have plenty to throw at a top free agent with some left over. Now we’re replacing Gibson with a free agent and Perez with young guns? I’m in on that formula!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Gleeman on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast pointed out that a qualifying offer to Pineda would be on a prorated salary because of the suspension meaning it would actually only be in the $13 million range so the Twins really should give 2 QO’s today. If they keep both guys in house for $31 million, they have plenty to throw at a top free agent with some left over. Now we’re replacing Gibson with a free agent and Perez with young guns? I’m in on that formula!

I think it would be about $13.5 mil (39 games left on his suspension would cover the first 45 days of the 2020 season, out of a total 186 days, with $17.8 mil qualifying offer).

 

But we'd also be without his services until May 10th. Is that worth a guaranteed $13.5 mil? He couldn't play for anyone else until May 10th either, so that's going to depress his market this offseason. Maybe we'd be better off skipping the QO and just negotiating with him while his value is depressed -- we could get a lower rate, incentive structure, 2nd year/option, etc.

 

I have a feeling Pineda would readily accept the QO which suggests that maybe it isn't the best move for the team. But not making it would involve some risk too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, in the MLB qualifying offer preview, they lump Pineda in with Gibson and others as unlikely to receive one:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-qualifying-offer-candidates-and-updates

 

 

 

There is also a pool of free agents who are technically eligible to receive qualifying offers, but are unlikely to get them for various reasons. Those include:

Astros: Will Harris (RHP), Wade Miley (LHP)
Blue Jays: Justin Smoak (1B)
Braves: Nick Markakis (OF), Julio Teheran (RHP) (club option)
Cubs: Cole Hamels (LHP), Ben Zobrist (2B)
Cardinals: Michael Wacha (RHP), Adam Wainwright (RHP)
Dodgers: Rich Hill (LHP)
Mets: Todd Frazier (3B)
Nationals: Brian Dozier (2B)
Pirates: Melky Cabrera (OF)
Rays: Avisaíl García (OF)
Red Sox: Rick Porcello (RHP)
Reds: José Iglesias (SS), Alex Wood (LHP)
Twins: Kyle Gibson (RHP), Michael Pineda (RHP)

Yankees: Dellin Betances (RHP), Brett Gardner (OF)
White Sox: Ivan Nova (RHP)

 

[HawksNest]

Here's what I'd try and do:

• Wheeler for 4/84 ($21 AAV).  I'd want to make sure his shoulder checks out before putting pen to paper but assuming everything is good, I'd be ecstatic to sign him. Think he has phenomenal stuff and has really improved each year. Get Wes Johnson and Derek Falvey's hands on him and I think he becomes a borderline ace.
• Re-sign Odo for 3/45 ($15 AAV)
• Call Texas and see what it would take to acquire Mike Minor. I'd be willing to put together a package of prospects excluding Lewis or Kiriloff. Minor is on the last year of his deal and set to make $9.5 million this coming season.

1. Berrios

2. Wheeler

3. Minor

4. Odo

5. Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe

 

That's a very, very, solid rotation with legitimate upside and room for growth with Berrios and Wheeler at the top. 

[Tomj14]

 

They pay taxes based on where games are played, so we are looking at around 1.5MM, give or take, in tax differences between MN and TX, for a 30MM contract. That's not money to be ignored, but it's probably not the deciding factor. Given the number of players in MLB and the NBA that sign in NY and CA, I'm guessing taxes are not the main factor.

 

*those are SUPER ROUGH estimates......but I took the highest MN rate, divided by 2, and multiplied by 30MM.....

that is 1.5 a year, so the real cost of is closer to 10 over the contract, which means MN has to be at least 10 million higher than Texas.

[DocBauer]

I don't think the dual QO will happen, but it makes a lot of sense. You overpay slightly for each guy this season, but keep even more flexibility for extensions, FA, trades and internal development/promotion.

 

However, you also end up going in to 2021 with 2 potential holes again vs more of a sure thing under contract. But I think it's a very interesting idea with merit.

[lukeduke1980]

I'll be pleasantly surprised for an add of Rick Porcello, along with Odorizzi, Pineda.  

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs predicts Odo for three years, thirteen to fifteen million per....I predict a one year QO deal

[Musk21]

I know he turned down an extension last Feb/Mar, but a top priority for Twins should be to find a way to sign Berrios to a long-term deal.

 

[amjgt]

 

They pay taxes based on where games are played, so we are looking at around 1.5MM, give or take, in tax differences between MN and TX, for a 30MM contract. That's not money to be ignored, but it's probably not the deciding factor. Given the number of players in MLB and the NBA that sign in NY and CA, I'm guessing taxes are not the main factor.

 

*those are SUPER ROUGH estimates......but I took the highest MN rate, divided by 2, and multiplied by 30MM.....

 

This is off topic, but I'll ask because why not....

 

What if a player goes on the IL? So let's say I'm making $30M per year.

 

Scenario 1) If I'm healthy all year I pay taxes in all the states my team played games (regardless of if I play, or I'm on the bench).

 

Scenario 2) I get hurt, but not too bad. I'm on the 10day IL for a stint and I rehab for a week at AAA. For the days I'm on the IL where do I pay taxes? Home? Where my team is playing? How about that stint at AAA? I assume I pay taxes where those games are played.

 

Scenario 3) I blow out my arm. Out for the season. 60day IL. Now where do I pay taxes? Is it different than the 15 day IL?

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is off topic, but I'll ask because why not....

 

What if a player goes on the IL? So let's say I'm making $30M per year.

 

Scenario 1) If I'm healthy all year I pay taxes in all the states my team played games (regardless of if I play, or I'm on the bench).

 

Scenario 2) I get hurt, but not too bad. I'm on the 10day IL for a stint and I rehab for a week at AAA. For the days I'm on the IL where do I pay taxes? Home? Where my team is playing? How about that stint at AAA? I assume I pay taxes where those games are played.

 

Scenario 3) I blow out my arm. Out for the season. 60day IL. Now where do I pay taxes? Is it different than the 15 day IL?

 

No idea! 

[amjgt]

 

No idea! 

 

It was mostly rhetorical because it was unlikely anyone would know, but I thought I'd take a shot

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is off topic, but I'll ask because why not....

 

What if a player goes on the IL? So let's say I'm making $30M per year.

 

Scenario 1) If I'm healthy all year I pay taxes in all the states my team played games (regardless of if I play, or I'm on the bench).

 

Scenario 2) I get hurt, but not too bad. I'm on the 10day IL for a stint and I rehab for a week at AAA. For the days I'm on the IL where do I pay taxes? Home? Where my team is playing? How about that stint at AAA? I assume I pay taxes where those games are played.

 

Scenario 3) I blow out my arm. Out for the season. 60day IL. Now where do I pay taxes? Is it different than the 15 day IL?

You're still on the MLB roster (and collecting MLB service time) when you are on the IL or rehab, so I suspect your tax liability just follows where the MLB team is playing, as usual.

 

More interesting would be the tax liability after a player is released while on a guaranteed contract (or outrighted, like Rusney Castillo in Boston).

[nicksaviking]

 

Here's what I'd try and do:

• Wheeler for 4/84 ($21 AAV).  I'd want to make sure his shoulder checks out before putting pen to paper but assuming everything is good, I'd be ecstatic to sign him. Think he has phenomenal stuff and has really improved each year. Get Wes Johnson and Derek Falvey's hands on him and I think he becomes a borderline ace.
• Re-sign Odo for 3/45 ($15 AAV)
• Call Texas and see what it would take to acquire Mike Minor. I'd be willing to put together a package of prospects excluding Lewis or Kiriloff. Minor is on the last year of his deal and set to make $9.5 million this coming season.

1. Berrios

2. Wheeler

3. Minor

4. Odo

5. Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe

 

That's a very, very, solid rotation with legitimate upside and room for growth with Berrios and Wheeler at the top. 

 

I like the idea of trading for a pitcher, but I'd rather give up more for a pitcher with more upside than Minor. He's good, but I think they need someone who holds the possibility of becoming elite. I still wouldn't feel good about the above rotation come the playoffs.

[Major League Ready]

 

Here's what I'd try and do:

• Wheeler for 4/84 ($21 AAV).  I'd want to make sure his shoulder checks out before putting pen to paper but assuming everything is good, I'd be ecstatic to sign him. Think he has phenomenal stuff and has really improved each year. Get Wes Johnson and Derek Falvey's hands on him and I think he becomes a borderline ace.
• Re-sign Odo for 3/45 ($15 AAV)
• Call Texas and see what it would take to acquire Mike Minor. I'd be willing to put together a package of prospects excluding Lewis or Kiriloff. Minor is on the last year of his deal and set to make $9.5 million this coming season.

1. Berrios

2. Wheeler

3. Minor

4. Odo

5. Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe

 

That's a very, very, solid rotation with legitimate upside and room for growth with Berrios and Wheeler at the top. 

 

Nice plan! Its a good bridge to Graterol / Balazovic. I think Odorizzi costs a little more than 3/45 but that's fine. Anyone care to predict what 1 year of Minor cost in prospects?

[Thrylos]

 

1. Berrios

2. Wheeler

3. Minor

4. Odo

5. Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe

 

That's a very, very, solid rotation with legitimate upside and room for growth with Berrios and Wheeler at the top. 

 

I have no problem with this rotation, but in this instance Berrios is the number 3 or number 4 pitcher...

[AlwaysinModeration]

How about:

 

Wheeler 4/88

Hamels 1/20 + mutual option for 1/15

 

And explore the trade market. I’d be fine with having them fill out the final two roster spots internally:

 

Brusdar

Thorpe

Balazovic

 

And I wouldn’t write off these guys as rotation possibilities:

Romero

Gonsalves

 

And then finally, maybe Smeltzer or Dobnak, but not as high on their prospects.

[old nurse]

 

How about:

Wheeler 4/88
Hamels 1/20 + mutual option for 1/15

And explore the trade market. I’d be fine with having them fill out the final two roster spots internally:

Brusdar
Thorpe
Balazovic

And I wouldn’t write off these guys as rotation possibilities:
Romero
Gonsalves

And then finally, maybe Smeltzer or Dobnak, but not as high on their prospects.

Gonsalves is Wheeler's replacement with the Mets.  Sort of.

 

[Twodogs]

How about:

 

Wheeler 4/88

Hamels 1/20 + mutual option for 1/15

 

And explore the trade market. I’d be fine with having them fill out the final two roster spots internally:

 

Brusdar

Thorpe

Balazovic

 

And I wouldn’t write off these guys as rotation possibilities:

Romero

Gonsalves

 

And then finally, maybe Smeltzer or Dobnak, but not as high on their prospects.

Hamels has said he'd go to a win now team on a one year type of deal, so that is a good one. If you bring in both Wheeler and Hamels then you still have Berrios and probably a decent shot at Odorizzi. Then you could go with the 5th spot with one of the guys from the system Grateral, Balazovic, Romero, Smeltzer etc... Or go back and try to re-sign Pineda for the 5th spot? If you can't get him and you still don't trust the young guys bring in a guy like Homer Bailey, he should be relatively inexpensive on a 1 year deal and he did pretty well with Oakland? Or just go with one of the younger guys?

[Physics Guy]

 

Given the way the market played out the last few years, I wouldn't assume he gets a 7 year deal. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he only gets 5 or 6.

I will absolutely be surprised if Cole signs for 6 years or less, unless it's a 6yrs/$240M contract.  The past two years these were the top pitching FA contracts:

2018 - Yu Darvish 6yrs/$126M

2019 - Patrick Corbin 6 yrs/$140M

 

Neither of those pitchers is Gerritt Cole.  With Boras as his agent, I would be surprised if anything under 7yrs/$224 even gets you a conversation.  He is going to set the record.  Guys like him just don't make it to FA very often.

 

I also believe Strasburg will do better than both Darvish and Corbin.  My guess is 6yrs/$150-180M.  He is opting out 4yrs/$100M left on his contract.  I doubt he does so if he and his agent (is it Boras?) don't think he can at least get two more years at the same AAV.