Are we done with Gibson? Once and for all

[KirbyDome89]

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that he hasn't hit his ceiling but his ceiling is pretty decent, around 2.5-3.0 fWAR.

 

I'll take that for $6-8m on a one-year deal.

He's hit that target twice in six seasons and only once in the last 4. If they get him back for one year in that price range it's acceptable, if for no other reason than they're going to have a hard time filling out the rotation, but I'd bet the under on his WAR.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He's hit that target twice in six seasons and only once in the last 4. If they get him back for one year in that price range it's acceptable, if for no other reason than they're going to have a hard time filling out the rotation, but I'd bet the under on his WAR.

He has hit that number in four of the past six seasons. Read my post again.

[KirbyDome89]

 

He has hit that number in four of the past six seasons. Read my post again.

Well Baseball Reference doesn't agree. He's been worth less than 1 bWAR 3 of the last 4 seasons....

[KirbyDome89]

 

Agreed.... Do people expect to find three better than mid? Not one, not two, three? People are tired of him, but look at the actual alternatives.

Again, if they decide to move on, fine. But good luck acquiring three better starters in one off season.

No, they should aim for 2 better plus Gibson or a similar pitcher if they're going to seriously try to make a deep postseason run but given the lack of spending last offseason and their unwillingness to this point to deal top prospects I wouldn't say it's likely. 

 

My point was that if he's brought back it should be framed in the context of my previous post rather than as a buy low type of deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well Baseball Reference doesn't agree. He's been worth less than 1 bWAR 3 of the last 4 seasons....

And that's fine, but that's not what I said.

[jimbo92107]

 

Maybe you are seeing something I’m not. I haven’t been wowed by Graterol, Thorpe or Smeltzer. And if the Twins don’t retain Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda or Perez, all three are likely penciled into 2020 rotation.

I could see a 2020 starting rotation of Odorizzi, Graterol, Pineda, Dobnak, Smeltzer, with Balazovic in the pen as a long reliever. If Thorpe and Romero learn to keep their drive foot on the rubber longer, they might get starter consideration again. Stay back, stay tall, work out front. Trevor May is finally getting it, and Tyler Duffey has definitely got it. Perez had it, lost it, and now should go to the pen until he gets it again. 

 

Point is, for the time being the Twins do not have a 9-inning horse, but they have lots of guys that can go 2 or three innings. That might be the model going forward. 

[jkcarew]

 

I could see a 2020 starting rotation of Odorizzi, Graterol, Pineda, Dobnak, Smeltzer, with Balazovic in the pen as a long reliever.

I still think Berrios has a shot

 

But don't see how the Twins can count on Graterol as a starter, and not sure they will even try. He was shut down this year...so he might get to 80 innings overall, and has been shut down at some point every season as a professional for one reason or another. If they try to make him a starter in 2020, it's likely that his schedule would amount to that of a #5. For context, his professional season max innings pitched of 102 in 2018 is significantly less than Pineda pitched for the Twins this year.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

I could see a 2020 starting rotation of Odorizzi, Graterol, Pineda, Dobnak, Smeltzer, with Balazovic in the pen as a long reliever. If Thorpe and Romero learn to keep their drive foot on the rubber longer, they might get starter consideration again. Stay back, stay tall, work out front. Trevor May is finally getting it, and Tyler Duffey has definitely got it. Perez had it, lost it, and now should go to the pen until he gets it again. 

 

Point is, for the time being the Twins do not have a 9-inning horse, but they have lots of guys that can go 2 or three innings. That might be the model going forward. 

 

If that is your opening day rotation in 2020, yikes.

[Trov]

It is hard to project Gibson contract in FA.  With his current medical and career meh numbers.  He is at replacement level, but for most part you know what you getting 5 innings of decent pitching and 1 bad one, just which ones.  

 

Teams are really reevaluating aging starting pitching and their value.  The pitchers have not changed their believed value.  I doubt Gibson gets anything more than 2 years with option for 3rd at around 10M a year.  I am not sure on his spin rates and all those stats, but when teams are willing to do bullpen games over having traditional starter things are sure changing for pitchers and contracts.  

 

If Twins bring him back I am not mad, nor excited, just like his performances I am meh' 

[beckmt]

 

This is why I think Gibson might actually be a really good buy low candidate on a one year deal.

 

If you can get him for $6-7m with the sickness cloud over his head, I roll the dice on that every time.

NO! NO! NO!  Do you understand this disease, our daughter has it and it is not good.  The milder forms can somewhat be controlled.  The worse forms are a struggle, stress affects it greatly.  I am not a doctor and do not know what form Gibson has, but it is not worth the risk at any price to see it work out.  Moving on

[beckmt]

I am in the boat of QO Oderizzi, try and reach a deal with Pineda (he seems to want to return, maybe like 2/24 or 3/36, he could have gotten more before the suspension, so take advantage of this).  Then you make a decision on Perez. Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, and Ober seem to be close, plus 2 - 3 others in the next year or two.  Figure on Gaterol being a bullpen piece or a closer, with Rodgers, Dyson (maybe), May, Duffy, and others working in the pen.  This should work. 

[Number3]

Kyle Gibson seems like a real good guy and the eColi illness from his work in the Dominican Republic speaks for itself. I just hope in his next outing that he challenges hitters and if every pitch he throws ends up in the outfield bleachers so be it. Something tells me they won't. No more 3 straight sliders in the dirt.

[Tomj14]

 

I am in the boat of QO Oderizzi, try and reach a deal with Pineda (he seems to want to return, maybe like 2/24 or 3/36, he could have gotten more before the suspension, so take advantage of this).  Then you make a decision on Perez. Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, and Ober seem to be close, plus 2 - 3 others in the next year or two.  Figure on Gaterol being a bullpen piece or a closer, with Rodgers, Dyson (maybe), May, Duffy, and others working in the pen.  This should work. 

How about taking the 30+ million you have for Ordo and Pineda and start the offer for Cole?

[Mike Sixel]

I am in the boat of QO Oderizzi, try and reach a deal with Pineda (he seems to want to return, maybe like 2/24 or 3/36, he could have gotten more before the suspension, so take advantage of this). Then you make a decision on Perez. Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, and Ober seem to be close, plus 2 - 3 others in the next year or two. Figure on Gaterol being a bullpen piece or a closer, with Rodgers, Dyson (maybe), May, Duffy, and others working in the pen. This should work.

A three year deal for Pineda? Has he ever pitched a full season? He'll miss at least forty games next year.... Then he'll get hurt one year.

[Road trip]

 

Need three. Has any team ever added three good, new, starting pitchers in one off season?

 

My guess is that adding three pitchers new to the organization is quite rare.  However two new pitchers isn't that uncommon.  As recently as winter 2018 the Twins traded for Odorizzi and signed Lance Lynn.  Now neither performed particularly well in 2018, but both are doing well now, albeit Lynn is now pitching for Texas.  They also had Anibal Sanchez signed and kicked the tires during March 2018.  They cut him loose (resulting in much applause on this forum), and he has performed pretty well in the NL ever since.

 

I think it is very likely that the Twins are planning on at least one of Smeltzer, Graterol, Dobnak, and Thorpe to get a starting spot next year.  Hopefully it is just one.  I'd rather they not perform extreme dumpster diving, but getting two guys that have the potential to perform like the names above (2019 versions) is a realistic target.  And I'd sign Odorizzi to a long term deal as step 1.

[howeda7]

 

Maybe you are seeing something I’m not. I haven’t been wowed by Graterol, Thorpe or Smeltzer. And if the Twins don’t retain Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda or Perez, all three are likely penciled into 2020 rotation.

I agree. I'm fine with the youngsters filling one spot, but not 2-3. The Twins rotation next year IMO is:

 

1. Berrios

2. TBD

3. TBD

4. TBD

5. Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak/Graterol

 

I would trade one of Rosario/Sano/Buxton for a starter and probably bring back Pineda as the #4. They will still need at least one FA to fill the #3 spot. Could be Odorizzi, could be someone else. The only way I want Gibson back, is if it's one a cheap one-year make good deal. I would decline the option on Perez. He's not worth $7.5 million.

[beckmt]

 

A three year deal for Pineda? Has he ever pitched a full season? He'll miss at least forty games next year.... Then he'll get hurt one year.

I am more in the 2/24 which I feel is about what he would be offered (and he wants to stay here). Oderizzi for one year is fine and he will probably accept the QO unless another club blows him away with a three year offer (think it will take 3/45+.  Too dangerous for me even at that level.

[beckmt]

 

A three year deal for Pineda? Has he ever pitched a full season? He'll miss at least forty games next year.... Then he'll get hurt one year.

 

There is risk in every deal.  I feel better about this risk (higher upside than some of the rest.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am more in the 2/24 which I feel is about what he would be offered (and he wants to stay here). Oderizzi for one year is fine and he will probably accept the QO unless another club blows him away with a three year offer (think it will take 3/45+.  Too dangerous for me even at that level.

 

Doesn't he have to accept or reject it before getting offers? If I'm him, I take it for sure. That's not much less than he'd get in a two year deal.

[magiklair]

Berrios
Odorizzi
Pineda
Smeltzer, Graterol, Dobnak
TBD

 

That's a good lineup. Unless were going to open the wallet

[KirbyDome89]

 

And that's fine, but that's not what I said.

So he's been essentially at or near replacement level for three of the last four seasons, which was the point of the OP, i.e. you're not buying low, you're just buying. What's the quibble here?

[beckmt]

 

Doesn't he have to accept or reject it before getting offers? If I'm him, I take it for sure. That's not much less than he'd get in a two year deal.

Mike, I respect your opinion, but think you are way low on what pitching will command this offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike, I respect your opinion, but think you are way low on what pitching will command this offseason.

Ya, it was too late to edit it when I decided that was silly....

[stringer bell]

To me this Kyle Gibson discussion has two main branches. 1) Should he be trusted for any significant innings from this point in the season? 2) Should he be re-signed, if so, at what price? 

 

Personally, I want to worry about 2020 and beyond as soon as this season is over. As far as this season goes, if Gibson is healthy enough, he is one of the guys I want to see pitching in the postseason. Knowing that he's got a chronic illness that has been draining him means that the pitching coach and manager need to know how healthy he is. I think he'll get two starts to show if he's healthy enough and has enough stamina to start a playoff game.

 

We haven't seen much of 2018 Gibby in the last 6 weeks, so I'm not holding my breath. The team would be much better going forward if he can get back to that.

[Twodogs]

This is why I think Gibson might actually be a really good buy low candidate on a one year deal.

 

If you can get him for $6-7m with the sickness cloud over his head, I roll the dice on that every time.

I even think if you can get that 6 - 7 mill you do it for even two years, just to give him a little comfort knowing he is taken care of for a couple of years. The Twins will probably have to roll with him next year, but will have developed someone by the second year of that deal and 6 mill isn't a lot to walk away from if he stinks. But if he is average or even better than average then you got yourself a steal. I mean everyone was ohhing and aweing over Pineda in August, but he really struggled early on. He was not a sure thing until he became one?

[Puckett34]

Of the 3 pending FA's, I would rather they retain Odorizzi and Pineda. I wouldn't be upset if they tried to buy low on Gibson either. 

[Squirrel]

To me this Kyle Gibson discussion has two main branches. 1) Should he be trusted for any significant innings from this point in the season? 2) Should he be re-signed, if so, at what price?

 

Personally, I want to worry about 2020 and beyond as soon as this season is over. As far as this season goes, if Gibson is healthy enough, he is one of the guys I want to see pitching in the postseason. Knowing that he's got a chronic illness that has been draining him means that the pitching coach and manager need to know how healthy he is. I think he'll get two starts to show if he's healthy enough and has enough stamina to start a playoff game.

 

We haven't seen much of 2018 Gibby in the last 6 weeks, so I'm not holding my breath. The team would be much better going forward if he can get back to that.

This really says it all for me. ‘If he is healthy enough’. Both for this season and beyond. The rigors of an entire season may mean, if you re-sign him, you’ll have to do so thinking he may need a lot of rest or may not make it through the season healthy enough. As for this season, I’m not sure he’s healthy enough. I think that’s what that stint pitching the other night showed us, unfortunately.

[Twodogs]

Berrios

Odorizzi

Pineda

Smeltzer, Graterol, Dobnak

TBD

 

That's a good lineup. Unless were going to open the wallet

I think Dobnak has no chance to be an effective starter over the long haul, I mean he was pitching in town ball or something a couple of years ago. As a reliever he won't get seen quite as much and has a shot at doing ok for stretches ah la Hildenberger. Smeltzer is another one that if given 30 starts I feel will eventually get crushed, although he could sprinkle in a good start here and there throughout the course of a season. The only one on that list that has a shot beyond Berrios, Odorizzi, and Pineda is Grateral. And if he isn't ready? TBD isn't any sort of a sure thing, had we signed Darvish, how well would that have worked out in year 1? Even year 2 has been only a little above average. He sure hasn't eaten a ton of innings, still need a solid bullpen pitching behind him. Now to think that Grateral is no sure thing, and TBD is no sure thing not to mention if we bring back Pineda then there is another guy your going to need for 40 games?? Gibson if inexpensive fits in that rotation decently. Obviously is has to be at a reasonable price.

[JW24]

 

How about taking the 30+ million you have for Ordo and Pineda and start the offer for Cole?

The Twins are paying north of $18M to players who don't play for the Twins this year. Coupled with $7.5M club option for Perez next year that should not be picked up, you can get to $25M for Cole without it impacting Odorizzi and Pineda's money.

 

Additionally, Gibson received $8.125M this year, an increase of almost $4M from 2018. No way he signs anywhere for less than what he got this season. I think Gibson would consider 3/30 from the Twins. However, if I am Gibson, signing a 1 year deal somewhere else and betting on himself might be the way to go.

[Channing1964]

I dont think I've ever seen the Twins add more than one #1(and that number is highly debatable). I cant wait to see how much money we have to spend and all the excuses for not spending any of it.