Are we done with Gibson? Once and for all

[Shaitan]

 

Free agents have to want to come to Minnesota. The Twins have not had much success luring top FA starters. Their best success story in the last ten (twenty?) years might be Ervin Santana who was suspended for the first half of his first season and missed big chunks of two others.

Also, how many teams are likely to trade away good, controllable starters for the pieces the Twins are willing to offer?

I agree that the player has to want to come here.

 

Hopefully winning the division, making the postseason, and having a positive culture this year helps reshape that narrative from the past decade.

[Shaitan]

I've been done with Gibson for 3 years. I just don't like watching him pitch.

 

But he is league average, at least. I'd consider a prove-yourself deal like Perez got...but not much more. And I won't miss him if they choose otherwise.

[bighat]

Twins will sign a Kevin Correia/Carl Pavano/Mike Pelfry/Lance Lynn/Martin Perez-type of pitcher and try and catch lightning in a bottle. It never works, but they'll definitely give it a shot. Michael Wacha seems to fit that mold, as someone else mentioned.

 

With that in mind, I still can't see any reason to keep Gibson. He's a cool dude, his work in Haiti is commendable, it's unfortunate that he's sick, and we all hope he gets better. But as a pitcher, I don't want to see him anywhere near this rotation next year or, frankly, the rest of this season. I'd rather roll the dice and take our chances on a re-tread. Gibson's been living off 'potential' for a long time now, let's face it, he won't get any better.

[Mike Sixel]

He's a league average pitcher.... What are people expecting that they think he's bad?

[jkcarew]

 

He's a league average pitcher.... What are people expecting that they think he's bad?

I agree, pitchers like this have value in the back half of rotations. I guess the question is, can he be average for another couple of years given the health issues and late 2019 results. I don't know. I'd expect the Twins to do due diligence into that question and proceed accordingly. If that means they end up re-signing him to a role in the back-half of the rotation, I'd be ok with that. If not, I wish him well. Always has come across as a positive, professional, and good teammate...even before his 'good works' were widely known.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, pitchers like this have value in the back half of rotations. I guess the question is, can he be average for another couple of years given the health issues and late 2019 results. I don't know. I'd expect the Twins to do due diligence into that question and proceed accordingly. If that means they end up re-signing him to a role in the back-half of the rotation, I'd be ok with that. If not, I wish him well. Always has come across as a positive, professional, and good teammate...even before his 'good works' were widely known.

I agree, the future is hard to predict because of the health. And because of that,I won't begrudge them letting him leave. But posters in this thread don't seem to understand how good he is compared to other pitchers in the AL. Not great. Average, even this year, when not healthy.

 

People want Pineda back, who has one healthy year on his resume....

[rdehring]

I don't know what the future holds for Gibby, especially for the remaining weeks/months of this season.

 

I do know that he is a quality human being who has been loyal to the Twins since drafted.  I understood that he was open to an extension this spring, however, also understand the FO not engaging with his futue health an unknown.

 

I would hope that he and the Twins can sit down at the end of the season and work out an extension, probably a one year extension.  Something similar to what he was paid this year with some type of buyout should he be unable to perform in 2020 similar to what he did prior to 2019.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

He's a league average pitcher.... What are people expecting that they think he's bad?

 

Right but then why not role with someone from your system? Thorpe will give you league average over the course of a season. Pay your 4th and 5th guys peanuts and go spend real money on a single stud, rather than try to get 2-3 mid-tier guys who will likely only perform about the same as you would get from guys in your own system already that are cheap and under control. 

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins are paying north of $18M to players who don't play for the Twins this year. Coupled with $7.5M club option for Perez next year that should not be picked up, you can get to $25M for Cole without it impacting Odorizzi and Pineda's money.

 

Additionally, Gibson received $8.125M this year, an increase of almost $4M from 2018. No way he signs anywhere for less than what he got this season. I think Gibson would consider 3/30 from the Twins. However, if I am Gibson, signing a 1 year deal somewhere else and betting on himself might be the way to go.

I don’t think a pitcher about to turn 32 is likely to pursue a one year deal.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Right but then why not role with someone from your system? Thorpe will give you league average over the course of a season. Pay your 4th and 5th guys peanuts and go spend real money on a single stud, rather than try to get 2-3 mid-tier guys who will likely only perform about the same as you would get from guys in your own system already that are cheap and under control. 

 

Because none of those guys are likely to be league average to start the year.....and you need 4 pitchers, one of whom is already going to be from the minors/rookie pool.

 

One stud and Berrios and three number 5 pitchers is not going to carry this team thru 162 games. 

 

They have enough money to get Cole and a decent next guy. They won't, but they have enough. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Because none of those guys are likely to be league average to start the year.....and you need 4 pitchers, one of whom is already going to be from the minors/rookie pool.

 

One stud and Berrios and three number 5 pitchers is not going to carry this team thru 162 games. 

 

They have enough money to get Cole and a decent next guy. They won't, but they have enough. 

 

Berrios, 2 of Pineda/Odo/Gibson, system guy, Stud FA. That is how I would approach it if it were me. 

 

 

[In My La Z boy]

 

He's a league average pitcher.... What are people expecting that they think he's bad?

I think it is those games he has every once in a while where he looks like a #1 stud. He has shown, every once in a while, he can just be unbeatable. Then he'll stink it up for 2-3 weeks - then come out of nowhere and throw a world class gem again. Then stink it up again. Flashes of brilliance. No sustained brilliance. I think that is your answer. 

[JW24]

 

I don’t think a pitcher about to turn 32 is likely to pursue a one year deal.

Every athlete would prefer the stability of a long-term deal, of course. However, lets not pretend like 32 is way past peak here. If Gibson shows he can stay healthy and be productive, he could get a multi-year extension yet in his career.

 

If Gibson feels like the Twins are asking him to sign below market value, and he has an offer elsewhere for one year at a high dollar amount, why not bet on himself?

[nicksaviking]

 

Right but then why not role with someone from your system? Thorpe will give you league average over the course of a season. Pay your 4th and 5th guys peanuts and go spend real money on a single stud, rather than try to get 2-3 mid-tier guys who will likely only perform about the same as you would get from guys in your own system already that are cheap and under control. 

 

I like Thorpe, but I've yet to see anything from him to indicate he'll be fine in the rotation. Same with Gonsalves and Stewart and as much as I appreciate them stepping up, I don't think many people would believe Dobnik or Smeltzer and their soft-tossing, strikeout-resistant skill sets have much of a long-term future in the rotation.

[laloesch]

 

Berrios
Odorizzi
Pineda
Smeltzer, Graterol, Dobnak
TBD

 

That's a good lineup. Unless were going to open the wallet

 

Man i miss the days when starters could go 7 innings on a consistent basis.

[yarnivek1972]

Every athlete would prefer the stability of a long-term deal, of course. However, lets not pretend like 32 is way past peak here. If Gibson shows he can stay healthy and be productive, he could get a multi-year extension yet in his career.

 

If Gibson feels like the Twins are asking him to sign below market value, and he has an offer elsewhere for one year at a high dollar amount, why not bet on himself?

At age 33? What do you figure the market will be for a career league average pitcher?

[JW24]

 

At age 33? What do you figure the market will be for a career league average pitcher?

I don't know what the market will be. I don't know how well Gibson will pitch next year. But if he is productive, someone will offer him another deal. Maybe he has to play it year by year. Or maybe someone sees something in his numbers they think they can correct and capitalize on. I can't look into the future to give you an answer.

 

The most value I see a guy like Gibson having is to a team like the White Sox, who have minimal money committed to next season, could offer Gibson a relatively sizable 1-year deal, and either ride out the season with him (if he pitches really well/the White Sox are in the playoff hunt) or try to use him as a trade chip near the deadline. The Pittsburgh Pirates are another team who might see value in bringing Gibson in to help shore up a rotation in need of a guy who can eat innings, and also a trade piece.

 

My primary point is that if the Twins try to low-ball him, I would expect Gibson to look elsewhere, even if that means having to play it year by year. Trying to predict the market for him is not possible, so this is the best answer I can give you.

[JW24]

 

At age 33? What do you figure the market will be for a career league average pitcher?

Also, for what it is worth, here are a couple contracts signed by guys I would consider to be of Gibson's ability level this past off-season:

 

JA Happ - 36 Years Old - 2 years, $34M

Lance Lynn - 32 years Old - 3 years, $30M

Anibal Sanchez - 35 Years Old - 2 years, $19M

Garrett Richards - 31 Years Old - 2 years, $15.5M

 

Dallas Keuchel, who has a better track record than Gibson, signed a deal that could be pro-rated to 1 year, $21.21M

 

So, I would say there is a market, but not an overly lucrative one. I could see some team offering him Lance Lynn's contract if they are confident in Gibson's health. I wouldn't be upset if that is what the Twins did.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I like Thorpe, but I've yet to see anything from him to indicate he'll be fine in the rotation. Same with Gonsalves and Stewart and as much as I appreciate them stepping up, I don't think many people would believe Dobnik or Smeltzer and their soft-tossing, strikeout-resistant skill sets have much of a long-term future in the rotation.

 

You might be right on Thorpe, but I'm definitely not talking about Gonsalves, Stewart, Dobnak, or Smeltzer. Gonsalves and Stewart should be DFAed to make room on the 40-man, Smetzer and Dobnak run the AAA-Majors train until their options are up.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

Twins will sign a Kevin Correia/Carl Pavano/Mike Pelfry/Lance Lynn/Martin Perez-type of pitcher and try and catch lightning in a bottle. It never works, but they'll definitely give it a shot. Michael Wacha seems to fit that mold, as someone else mentioned.

 

With that in mind, I still can't see any reason to keep Gibson. He's a cool dude, his work in Haiti is commendable, it's unfortunate that he's sick, and we all hope he gets better. But as a pitcher, I don't want to see him anywhere near this rotation next year or, frankly, the rest of this season. I'd rather roll the dice and take our chances on a re-tread. Gibson's been living off 'potential' for a long time now, let's face it, he won't get any better.

I have made the case on a different thread that Gibson and Perez shouldn't be on the postseason roster but I would not be opposed to Gibson coming back next year.    He started out the year horribly and I don't think he was every really at top strength.   I don't think he is going to get top dollar in free agency because of the way he has finished this year.    So bring him back and evaluate if he can help the team at ST time.    If he gets a great multi year deal somewhere else then goodbye and good luck.    I don't know why people have no faith in rookies and 2nd year guys.   Very few rosters have 30 year veterans with all star appearance up and down their rotations.    New guys have to come from somewhere.    Of course I don't want Berrios and 4 rookies but I would be ok with Berrios and bring back Odorizzi and Pineda, see what the market has and otherwise rely on two of the system guys to fill out the rotation.    As far as the 1st paragraph goes, you can put E Santana in there as a success story.   Certainly Odorizzi was successful, Phil Hughes was pretty good for a while,   Lynn was a great signing as we have seen from him this year but for whatever reason didn't succeed for us.    Correia was ok and Pavano was quite good so when you say never work out I think you meant sometimes works out and sometimes doesn't .

[KirbyDome89]

 

I won't begrudge them letting him leave.

 

But posters in this thread don't seem to understand how good he is compared to other pitchers in the AL. 

I think you're conflating the latter with the former, at least in my read through the thread. Given that nearly half the AL will lose 90+ games, it's probably not the best measuring stick. I'm in the same boat as you; I won't shed any tears if he isn't brought back. If others have reached a level of fatigue with Gibson's inconsistency that they'd rather see change, if for nothing other than the sake of making a change, I get it.