Collapse?

[MMMordabito]

 

Cleveland is off tonight so they would have an advantage outright if Twins have an all nighter and then have to go to Cleveland.

 

Appears that at least a one hour delay is going to happen ... Odorizzi should just head to Cleveland as scheduled.

[BrianTrottier]

 

Terrible luck that everyone is hurt for the stretch. What's the point of making the playoffs if you're not healthy anyway? 

 

To try and win the World Series.Every team has injuries. Hopefully the players don't go in with that same fatalistic attitude.

[SomeGuy]

 

I strongly disagree with "we'll win because of the schedule" arguments. Always have.

 

And for the record, the lineup we've put out the past couple nights is barely better than Detroit's, probably not better than KC's, and unquestionably worse than Chicago's.

Here are the runs allowed rankings over the last 14 days.  I think our offense will compete with them...

 

30th place White Sox - 84

29th Tigers - 75

28th Royals - 69

[Mike Sixel]

Twins are fortunate to be in such a terrible division.

[mikelink45]

I am an all out fan - bring in Kiriloff, we need a bat and someone fresh.

[denarded]

 

Odds of winning the division are still at 95%, postseason odds are at 98.9%. A collapse is highly unlikely.

 

Gibson and Cruz are back, Kepler and Cave are listed as "any day."

 

13 of 17 games are against the awful Tigers, Royals, and White Sox.

 

Cleveland has series against Twins, Phillies, and Nationals left (9 of 15 games are against contenders compared to our 4 of 17).

Phillies are toast and are going to have the same effort Anaheim is showing

[Halsey Hall]

Garver should get at least 11 more starts the rest of the way. 

[JW24]

 

Twins are fortunate to be in such a terrible division.

Yet unfortunate that this season, where the Twins have maintained position as one of the 5 best teams in the MLB, they have to deal with a division rival who is one of the 6 (or so) best teams in all of baseball.

 

This thread would be non-existent if it wasn't for the fact two of the best teams in baseball reside in the AL Central. The only other division that does not have a pretty clear winner is the NL Central, which is the most aggressively average division in the MLB.

[JW24]

 

Garver should get at least 11 more starts the rest of the way. 

17 games remaining, he should get 17 starts.

[MMMordabito]

 

17 games remaining, he should get 17 starts.

 

Too bad he's a catcher and doesn't play for Brian Snitker .... Baldelli is probably stressing about how he won't get him enough time off (you know employees these days are demanding that) .... Baldelli is completely relieved and happy with himself for leaving Garver on the bench while Rosario, Astudillo and Adrianza popped their way to futility against the shadow of Fernando Rodney --- If I recall correctly, there was a certain power-hitting catcher that had his way with Rodney in a big situation about 16.5 months ago.  Garver is a better hitter, and Rodney is even worse now.  Nevermind that option.  Gotta have that day off.

[stringer bell]

Two questions in my mind--while outwardly projecting calm and business as usual, are the Twins feeling the pressure provided by onrushing Cleveland and the spate of injuries?

 

Secondly, who is really hurt and who is being held out to be as close to 100% as they can be for later? It seems to be the case with Cron, for sure, that he can play. I don't know about any of the others, but Gonzalez has now been out for two weeks. He definitely will need some time to be sharp for crucial games, whether they are the last weeks of the regular season or postseason. Same for Dyson, he's been out since the 3rd of September. Kepler and Cave have sat out two games and Sanó three. 

[stringer bell]

While I'm not sure it's the right answer, the usage of Garver for the balance of this season isn't likely to change much. He's hit for Castro a few times, and he's played first base once and that was an injury situation in an extra-inning game if I remember correctly. He's easily been the #1 power source since Cruz was injured last and I would hope he gets 80% of the starts for meaningful regular season games from this point. 

[jkcarew]

 

Twins are fortunate to be in such a terrible division.

It's really relevant and meaningful perspective. The schedule has been historically weak. I'd venture that it's unprecedented for a team to win 100 (or almost 100) games...and have a losing record against +.500 teams. And that's were the Twins were headed as recently as a week ago. Just so many games played against bad and REALLY bad teams...and so few against solid and really good. Even when the Twins were healthy and 'hot', they've been less than break even against teams better than .500. The only playoff contender with as bad a record against +.500 teams is...predictably...Cleveland. The Twins were never in a position to look particularly 'good' in the post-season. But, looked like they had a punchers chance, once there. Now, not so much. Two weeks from now it could look different again...for better or for worse. It's baseball.

[Number3]

Speaking of Garver, if the Turtle can catch and play first why can't Garver?

When will Baldelli decide that the playoffs are not guaranteed and resting players for the playoffs is pointless if you don't make the playoffs?

If tonight's game is washed out it could result in an effective wild card game makeup whereby which ever team, Twins or Nats, wins that game becomes a wild card and the other is out of the playoffs.

[JW24]

 

Too bad he's a catcher and doesn't play for Brian Snitker .... Baldelli is probably stressing about how he won't get him enough time off (you know employees these days are demanding that) .... Baldelli is completely relieved and happy with himself for leaving Garver on the bench while Rosario, Astudillo and Adrianza popped their way to futility against the shadow of Fernando Rodney --- If I recall correctly, there was a certain power-hitting catcher that had his way with Rodney in a big situation about 16.5 months ago.  Garver is a better hitter, and Rodney is even worse now.  Nevermind that option.  Gotta have that day off.

With Cruz in a bit of a slump, the games Garver doesn't catch he should be in the lineup at DH. Should Cruz pick it up again, Garver should be in the lineup at 1B. If Rosario (and Wade and Arraez) get hurt, throw him into the OF. His bat has to get in the lineup every single night at this point until the division is wrapped up.

 

I also completely agree Garver should have gotten an AB last night. 

[SomeGuy]

 

Phillies are toast and are going to have the same effort Anaheim is showing

2 games back is toast?  Would you rather be playing the Phillies than the 4 games series we have against the Royals that weekend?

[howeda7]

 

In another thread recently, I speculated at what a collapse might look like.

 

With a 4 game lead and 17 and 15 games remaining, respectively, it could go something like this:

 

Twins (8-9):

0-1 vs WSN

1-2 vs CLE

1-2 vs CHW

4-3 vs KC

2-1 vs DET

 

Cleveland (11-4):

2-1 vs MIN

3-0 vs DET

2-1 vs PHI

2-1 vs CHW

2-1 vs WSN

 

That would put us into a tie after 162 games, forcing another game 163 tiebreaker.

 

Still unlikely -- Fangraphs gives us 95.2% odds of winning the division, and only 3.2% of a tie atop the AL Central -- but plausible, even without a Cleveland sweep this weekend.

 

As noted by others, a win tonight and a win this weekend -- so 2 of the next 4 -- would be big. It could essentially force Cleveland to get another sweep from their remaining schedule, in addition one vs Detroit.

As long as we don't get swept in Cleveland, we're probably fine. The problem is, I think there's a distinct possibility of that.

[ashbury]

Twins are fortunate to be in such a terrible division.

In contrast to Cleveland?

[IndianaTwin]

 

I strongly disagree with "we'll win because of the schedule" arguments. Always have.

 

And for the record, the lineup we've put out the past couple nights is barely better than Detroit's, probably not better than KC's, and unquestionably worse than Chicago's.

 

I think you are misunderestimating the ineptitude of the Battling Gardys. Tuesday night's Twins lineup had only two guys with an OPS less than Detroit's BEST player.

 

That same night, KC's lineup was okay through four (maybe five) but then had four guys under .600. Chicago had three guys under .700 and nobody over .900.

 

Without Kepler, Buxton, and Gonzalez, the current Twins lineup is not nearly as good as earlier in the season, but remember that you're remembering a record-setting lineup. If you take the average OPS last night (and not even weighting that Wade's pathetitude comes in many fewer at bats than the rest of the lineup), their .778 OPS would still be 8th in the majors.

 

That said, that horrible Detroit lineup scored 11 runs, which speaks to the unpredictability of baseball and how on any given night... So I agree with your premise that they can't count on easy wins because of the easy schedule, but it DOES benefit them to be playing teams with crappy lineups and crappy pitching, and I'd rather have the Twins remaining schedule than have Cleveland's.  

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

In contrast to Cleveland?

I never once said that. They are also fortunate. I never even implied it.

[ashbury]

I never once said that. They are also fortunate. I never even implied it.

The topic is collapse. The relevant competitor is Cleveland.

[Bomba2026]

Rocco is sneaky regarding players, which is a good thing. Other teams are not quit sure who on our team who has injury issues. If our A team was in every day, things would be better but they need to win every game in Sept in my world! Oh and once again...thanks Big Mike. Next time you want to lose weight go to your trainers and get a legit diet plan!

[blindeke]

 

To try and win the World Series.Every team has injuries. Hopefully the players don't go in with that same fatalistic attitude.

 

they're not gonna win a playoff series with that lineup they put out last night

[bighat]

 

In another thread recently, I speculated at what a collapse might look like.

 

With a 4 game lead and 17 and 15 games remaining, respectively, it could go something like this:

 

Twins (8-9):

0-1 vs WSN

1-2 vs CLE

1-2 vs CHW

4-3 vs KC

2-1 vs DET

 

Cleveland (11-4):

2-1 vs MIN

3-0 vs DET

2-1 vs PHI

2-1 vs CHW

2-1 vs WSN

 

That would put us into a tie after 162 games, forcing another game 163 tiebreaker.

 

Still unlikely -- Fangraphs gives us 95.2% odds of winning the division, and only 3.2% of a tie atop the AL Central -- but plausible, even without a Cleveland sweep this weekend.

 

As noted by others, a win tonight and a win this weekend -- so 2 of the next 4 -- would be big. It could essentially force Cleveland to get another sweep from their remaining schedule, in addition one vs Detroit.

 

Change the stats above and have Cleveland sweeping the Twins, and there isn't a game 163. I could very well see that happening if the Twins continue to score 2 runs per game.

[jkcarew]

The topic is collapse. The relevant competitor is Cleveland.

True...but the other relevant competitors (Tampa Bay and Oakland) would probably both be ahead...or at least much more likely to finish ahead of both the Twins and Cleveland, if not for the ultra-weak division and the unbalanced schedule.

[Don Walcott]

Well, we went from "historic collapse" a month ago to just "collapse." So I'd have to say we've made some progress.

[ashbury]

True...but the other relevant competitors (Tampa Bay and Oakland) would probably both be ahead...or at least much more likely to finish ahead of both the Twins and Cleveland, if not for the ultra-weak division and the unbalanced schedule.

The thread started out explicitly about getting passed by Cleveland, with a caveat of lack of interest in the wild card.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Change the stats above and have Cleveland sweeping the Twins, and there isn't a game 163.

Sure. Or, a Cleveland sweep could offset us going 5-2 vs KC. Or a Cleveland 1-2 letdown vs another club, etc.

[howeda7]

 

they're not gonna win a playoff game with that lineup they put out last night

FIFY

[Mike Sixel]

 

The topic is collapse. The relevant competitor is Cleveland.

 

And/Or the wild card.....but sure. Read something into the post that wasn't made.