This Ain't Over

[ewen21]

When the playoffs begin. Everything that happened prior... happened prior.

 

It’s a brand new day... everyday.

Ever seen the movie Groundhog's Day?

[howeda7]

 

I think you have to flip Sano and Rosario otherwise you are making it pretty easy to manage the bullpen late.

That would be OK. But both Rosario and Kepler hit lefties OK, so I think it's fine. 

[howeda7]

 

Ever seen the movie Groundhog's Day?

In Minnesota Sports, every season feels like Groundhog Day.

[Platoon]

personally I'd be fine with Puig wearing one in the ribs. He can wave on his way to first, like he did twice on the base paths this weekend.

Never above the belt! That said, someone in the booth mentioned pitching in off the plate. Dick asked, "a couple inches"? The other guy was talking 6-8", so Dick said you mean "move his feet". This reminded me that in the new baseball hitters are allowed to swing out of there a** at a pitch with no fear of being moved off the plate. Honest to god, they swing like its slo-pitch softball. I never ever would throw above a belt, that's where mistakes happen. But bouncing one past an ankle would lighten foot steps considerably.

[Nine of twelve]

 

That jockey dusted himself off and walked away...

It didn't look like that to me. In saying this I'm not drawing any analogy with the current Twins' season. I didn't like this video because I don't enjoy watching a fellow human being incurring what appears to be a serious injury.

[Nine of twelve]

Past postseason performance should probably not be factored in to this discussion. How the Twins did in 2010 and before is 100% irrelevant because there is no player on the 2019 team that was on the team in 2010 and before. The one game in 2017 was a very small sample size and this year, if we qualify for the postseason, the most important player on game day, namely the starting pitcher, will not be Ervin Santana.

I think the Twins have a very good chance of qualifying for this year's postseason. And even though I doubt we will win the World Series this year the franchise is taking significant steps to being in a position to contend for the postseason every year. That's the goal.

[rv78]

The series with the Braves and Indians this past week proved 1 thing. The pitching on this team isn't very good. At least not good enough to make a serious run in the playoffs, if they even get there. When Clevelands back end of the rotation can out pitch your teams Ace it doesn't bode well for you. Baldelli claims he's not worried about the rotation, thinking they will return to form of earlier in the year. Maybe they pitched out of their butts earlier and now they have returned to normal. The normal won't get it done.

[twinsnorth49]

It didn't look like that to me. In saying this I'm not drawing any analogy with the current Twins' season. I didn't like this video because I don't enjoy watching a fellow human being incurring what appears to be a serious injury.

He walked away, trust me. He was incredibly lucky but he didn’t suffer any serious injuries.

[twinsguy45]

Hopefully I dont get the ban hammer again for asking this, but how do you really believe we can make the playoffs when we are getting thumped by teams with a winning record on a consistent basis?

Make the playoffs? Yes. Advance in the playoffs? Not so much.

[Number3]

A while ago I posted "Pencil in Aug. 12" . Well, its Aug. 12 and Twins are tied for first with Cleveland and either team is a leg up for the home wild card. Would anyone not have taken that back in March? No one is really happy, it seems, unless their team wins the World Series and the Twins are not going to win the World Series. So we should simply enjoy the next 44 games and see what happens. Having meaningful September baseball, to me, is what it is all about.

Go Twins! With the remaining schedule they have, 25-19 over the next 44 is very doable. If Cleveland beats that more power to 'em. 6 more against Indians if my count is correct.

[Vanimal46]

Would anyone not have taken that back in March?

This appears to be the fallback question now... To, I don't know, protect themselves from getting upset or something?

 

If I posted on June 1 that the Twins will blow their 11.5 game lead by early August people would have said I'm being way too negative and it wouldn't happen. Well it did.

[bighat]

 

Those must be Vikings fans because that's what we hear about the Vikings every year... at least until the team bubbles up to the top, gets the tough schedule, and collapses early on.

 

...and then Buffalo beats you at home in the 3rd week of the season (remember that!?!?!)

[Dman]

After we started the year with an 11 game lead I really thought we would be hard to catch.  Having been caught it seems easy to see who the better team is.  Clevelands pitching has been outstanding.  They turned over almost their entire pitching staff and they are still pitching better than we are.  While I like our linup better Cleveland has a pretty good offense themselves right now.

 

It is frustrating to be 24 games over 500 and about to be fighting for a wild card spot.  I mean what is it going to take to beat Cleveland even next year? The Twins are a flawed team.  They are a really good offensive team but starting pitching and relief pitching, although improved, just isn't good enough IMO.

 

On the positive side it has been a joy watching this team this year.  They have played extremely well and competed well in the majority of their games this year.  They are still my favorite team but based on what I have seen this year I just don't think they are going to win the division and will now have to fight for a wild card spot.

 

I know, I know this is baseball and anything can happen but the realist in me just doesn't see it happening.  The way this season started I really thought this was our magical year.  The year everything works out and maybe we win the whole thing.  Being a Minnesota fan I knew in the back of my mind that the other shoe might drop at any moment and yet I kept refusing to believe that would happen this year.  It took a long time but the shoe has finally showed up and I can't say I am happy to see it.

[Doomtints]

 

I know, I know this is baseball and anything can happen but the realist in me just doesn't see it happening.  The way this season started I really thought this was our magical year. 

 

I'm sure you noticed over the years that I am one of the most critical people around here. I'm also right more often than not. I think the Twins will outpace Cleveland.

 

However, I don't think the Twins can beat the Yankees in the playoffs, for this to happen they needed to put together an elite bullpen.

[Vanimal46]

Feels like it's over.

 

Hope not.

 

But it feels like it's over.

 

I started to get worried when everyone pointed to "our scheule is easier" as the reason we'd hold on. That's never a good reason.

In 2003 all the Vikings had to do was beat a lowly Arizona Cardinals who had nothing to play for...

 

McCown, takes the snap, looking around, fires it into the end zone...

 

CAUGHT. TOUCH DOWN! NOOO!!! NOOO!!! The Cardinals have knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs!

[Doomtints]

 

 

This appears to be the fallback question now... To, I don't know, protect themselves from getting upset or something?

If I posted on June 1 that the Twins will blow their 11.5 game lead by early August people would have said I'm being way too negative and it wouldn't happen. Well it did.

 

A few of us were saying to be cautious. As I said back then, this team reminds me of the 2001 Twins who had the exact same start as this team but did not make the playoffs.

 

I think this team can pull it off, but we will see. It does not surprise me that the lead evaporated, but there is more baseball left to play.

 

Worst case, we got to see the most prolific home run hitting team in Twins history, potentially baseball history. That's special too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

and this year, if we qualify for the postseason, the most important player on game day, namely the starting pitcher, will not be Ervin Santana.

Hey -- it's still technically possible! We just have to get Ervin back in the organization by August 31st, and the Syracuse Mets are just about eliminated from the IL playoff picture...

[lukeduke1980]

 

For me we just can't have that without massive changes in the approach. 

I agree with this sentiment even though we've won 70 games with the current approach of 'crush mistakes, get up 7-0 and let the starters comfortably throw the ball over the plate'.  Good teams' starters aren't making those mistakes and we're getting behind by being unable to throw quality strikes ourselves.  Back to the basics I guess - patience at the plate, fastball command on the mound.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With the remaining schedule they have, 25-19 over the next 44 is very doable. If Cleveland beats that more power to 'em. 6 more against Indians if my count is correct.

Your count is correct.

 

25-19 seems pretty doable for Cleveland though too. Fangraphs takes into account strength of schedule, and that's basically what they project for Cleveland the rest of the way (technically 24.7-19.3 ). They project the Twins as 1 game better, at 26-18.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Your count is correct.

 

25-19 seems pretty doable for Cleveland though too. Fangraphs takes into account strength of schedule, and that's basically what they project for Cleveland the rest of the way (technically 24.7-19.3 ). They project the Twins as 1 game better, at 26-18.

Is this the same program that previously projected the Twins have a 96% chance of winning the division?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is this the same program that previously projected the Twins have a 96% chance of winning the division?

Yup!

 

But since then, we've lowered our projection by 2 wins -- and Cleveland has improved theirs by 10. I would hope a streak like Cleveland's would change those odds considerably!

 

We're still favored for the division, about 60% to 40%, probably due to the schedule -- but if we don't want this to be a photo-finish, we've got to play like Cleveland has since June 2nd, and/or hope that Cleveland plays like we have since then.

[Mike Sixel]

personally, I think hitting a batter because he is successful makes you a loser. And liking it makes you one too,

Agreed.

[Mike Sixel]

Never above the belt! That said, someone in the booth mentioned pitching in off the plate. Dick asked, "a couple inches"? The other guy was talking 6-8", so Dick said you mean "move his feet". This reminded me that in the new baseball hitters are allowed to swing out of there a** at a pitch with no fear of being moved off the plate. Honest to god, they swing like its slo-pitch softball. I never ever would throw above a belt, that's where mistakes happen. But bouncing one past an ankle would lighten foot steps considerably.

You really think this? They won't stand in and still seeing the same way? Based on what?

[jkcarew]

I think the Twins are pretty close to being what an optimistic (but reasonable) person would have thought they'd be heading into the season. An inconsistent, but dangerous, offense...with mediocre starters and a questionable bullpen....plus outfield defense, and minus infield defense. In short, a team that is better than most teams, but not that close to being on the level of the top teams. In the meantime, I think Cleveland is better than they were last year...while most were assuming they would take a step back this year.

 

I still think the Twins win more than they lose heading down the stretch, and probably make the playoffs. But I think what we've seen in the last 6 weeks is who they are. For the most part, competing against all teams, but not good enough to consistently win games against quality teams.

[Battle ur tail off]

Didn't you feel it yesterday though?

 

When Santana hit that grand slam, that was pretty much telling the Twins "YOU WILL NOT WIN THIS DIVISION" if we have anything to say about it. That was a door slammed in the face of our team and fans. There is alot of confidence over there right now in anything and everything they do. 

 

I don't feel it right now. Our best reliever had a chance to get us to the 10th with the top of our lineup up, and Cleveland abused him to win the game. 

 

Sucks, but they are on fire and we literally can't get anybody out from the mound. I do think it will be close though and if the Indians go into a slump we have a chance. Right now though, I don't see them doing anything but losing games to the Indians anytime we play them. That is the problem right there, even if the Twins build up a lead against them, it can be erased with head to head matchups.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When Santana hit that grand slam, that was pretty much telling the Twins "YOU WILL NOT WIN THIS DIVISION" if we have anything to say about it

Isn't that what we said to them in the 9th inning, though? Our third base coach just got a little too excited about saying it, I suppose!

[SpicyGarvSauce]

This is 100% on the front office/ownership and their inability/unwillingness to help this team.

 

 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Although Santana is a better player than Eric Fox ever was, yesterday's game will be this year's Eric Fox game from 1992.

 

Coincidentally, the Twins were tied for the division lead following that game and it happened in late July.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seriously, silver lining for that game (and series) -- we hit Brad Hand really well, both times we faced him.

 

Cleveland has a good pen, but I don't think they're going to feel too comfortable about it in any close games with us.

[Platoon]

You really think this? They won't stand in and still seeing the same way? Based on what?

For the same reason you pitch in and out and up and down and slow and fast. It won't change an entire batting order for an entire game. But it will move a hitter off the plate, or move his feet if you will? You pitch inside all the time so guys don't cover the outside corner comfortably. You pitch up and in so you can slip in a low outside slider. (See Sano, Miguel) If a hitter doesn't have it in the back of his mind that you are not afraid to move him a little, he will use you for BP. I did not advocate hitting anyone in retaliation for their success. Bu I would have no qualms about making him uncomfortable to ensure mine!