Are Fans Focusing on the Wrong Pitching Unit to Improve?

[Vanimal46]

 

Perhaps we should consider adding a starting pitcher if the splits tell us anything over the last 28 games. There's room to improve both areas on the pitching staff... To my surprise, the bullpen continues to hold their own, including a couple of gutty outings in the 17/18 inning games.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

The Twins should actively be looking to improve both - for both the short term (this season) and beyond.

[USAFChief]

Focus on improving the pitching.

 

But it will be a lot easier to improve the bullpen. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think it depends on what is available. If there's an ace/#1 type out there, yeah, go do it. Not sure I want to pay exorbitant price though for a starter that's a marginal upgrade.

 

I do think we should be focusing hard on the pen. Lots of good options available, and I'd like at least 2 late inning types.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

adding a starter and moving Perez or Pineda to the pen could improve both

 

Agreed with others. Improve the pitching. If there’s an Ace with control available do it.

[TopGunn#22]

I've been thinking for a LONG time the Twins need a STUD starter at the top of their rotation.  Moving Perez/Pineda to the bullpen would strengthen the bullpen as well.  I'm writing this thinking more in terms of a playoff series, but this would also benefit the regular season as well.  For as much as Grenike is owed, he should come pretty cheap.  Bauer would also be a great pickup.  I just don't want the Twins to go for some middle of the road SP.  If you're going to make a deal, make it a BIG ONE.

[Danchat]

The stats do look funny, but bad starts are much worse for a team than a bad night from the bullpen. Having Perez and Odorizzi come down to earth with Gibson and Pineda being middling have hurt this team pretty badly. The pen has done a fantastic job with the late inning games, and since Hildy was demoted, the number of "implosion" innings from the pen have been low.

 

But unfortunately it's just as Chief said; getting a good reliever will be much easier than getting a good starter. I would still like at least one high leverage guy to spell Rogers... but I'm not sure what to do about finding another starter.

[notoriousgod71]

 

adding a starter and moving Perez or Pineda to the pen could improve both

Agreed with others. Improve the pitching. If there’s an Ace with control available do it.

 

Moving Perez does nothing. He is awful whether he starts or relieves.

 

I've said it a hundred times- the fact that Falvine went into a season with this pitching staff is criminal.

[Thrylos]

They need to improve both the rotation and the pen.  They need a starter better than Berrios/Odorizzi and a couple of relievers better than Rogers to be relevant in the postseason.

 

I look at all these starters, including the 2 All Stars, and I jut don't trust them to win a game against any opponent the same way I would trust Johan, Morris, Viola, or even Radke.   They need someone at that level.  Berrios could be that in few seasons, but I am kinda sick and tired of saying that season after season...

 

If they get another starter, likely one of the current starters will go to the pen and that will help them.  Still they need shut down people at 7, 8, and 9 and Rogers are 3/4 the way there and May may be close.  The rest are a disaster waiting to happen.   So they need an 8 and a 9 inning guy as well.

(and, no, Cody Allen  is neither)

 

[yarnivek1972]

Moving Perez does nothing. He is awful whether he starts or relieves.

 

I've said it a hundred times- the fact that Falvine went into a season with this pitching staff is criminal.

Amazing. Everything in this post is incorrect. Perez has a better than league average ERA and a pretty solid 3.78 FIP.

 

 

The overall team ERA is 3rd best in the AL. Yeah, criminal that this pitching staff is that bad. I’m not sure it has ranked better than that in 20 years.

[Riverbrian]

I've said this often and I'll keep saying it. 

 

We need bullpen... but we will really really really really need the bullpen if we lose a starter or two so we better find a starter and make that the top priority. 

 

If you can't find that starter... then you gotta make multiple bullpen moves to strengthen in preparation of needing the bullpen much much more based on the possibility of losing a starter or two. 

 

A top of the line starter is a much more critical need but either way... we are going to need pitching. Our pitching health is probably less sustainable than anything else we would like to sustain.  

[akmanak]

Good info, but the problem is that the Twins are not going to do anything. Year after year we talk about the same exact thing before the deadline and year after year they stand idle. The owners simply dont care. The one thing I will enjoy is when they do nothing and the Twins fall out of first place which they will without pitching help the fans hopefully will again realize that this team needs to be sold to owners that actually want to see it succeed.

[DocBauer]

The statistics offered are interesting. But are they telling? A 14-14 game stretch comes on the heels of the rotation and lineup "slumping" for lack of a better term.

 

But the record of success is over twice as long. The season is a long marathon filled with ebbs and flow, peaks and valleys. Not just for players, but for teams in general.

 

To have a .500 stretch is worth examining, but not panicking over. The pitching should be improved, absolutely. The pen has not been the dumpster fire some would make it out to be. But it does need another arm, or two, for playoff baseball. And the pen would absolutely, be easier to improve than the rotation.

 

But unless there is a true rotation difference maker available, how do you really improve by bringing in another #3 type SP? If you can truly bring in someone special, I say go for it. But the rotation is good, deep, and pretty darn good as is.

 

I feel this team, as built right now, is similar to the KC model of recent memory. A good, probably even better rotation than the Royals had. Barring that stud SP you could maybe haul in, deepen and strengthen the pen.

[DocBauer]

Just a quick follow-up. Not arguing with Gleeman, or anyone else, just trying to look at the bigger picture.

 

The top 8 records in the AL with just a couple games to go before the break, essentially, the mid point of the season:

 

Yankees 56-29

Twins 54-32

Astros 54-32

Rays 50-38

Indians 48-38

A's 48-40

Rangers 47-40

Red Sox 46-41

 

So here we are, more or less, at the half way point in the season and tied for the second best record in the AL. I did a cursory search for a month by month win total for all teams listed. When I didn't find an easy reference, I admit it, I bailed! Lol. Just don't have the time right now, or the desire, to break down each time individually and do MATH. I'm sure there is someone out there who could click the right link and find said breakdown. But that's not even really the point.

 

So what is the point?

 

Hot or cold for 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, the next month, etc, you still have SCOREBOARD! And the Twins are tied for the 2nd best record in the AL right now. Period. Forgive my cluttered memory, but was it last season...or the season before...where the Dodgers were trouncing everyone before a prolonged bad stretch, and then righting themselves at the end of the season?

 

This IS a very good team. A team with a window now, and one that should be open for more than a few years. A team that could and should make some moves to be even better and enhance their chances. But I find Gleeman's analysis to be interesting, but a bit flawed and somewhat disingenuous compared to the Twins positioning, as well as all teams, each riding various streaks.

[jud6312]

I think those of us questioning the staff are doing so not because of what starters like Odorizzi and Perez, and pen guys like Magill, Harper, and Morin have done so far this year, but because of what they've done in the past.

 

Those guys have had career first halves, but they really have no extensive track record to prove it's anything but an anomaly. 

 

Perez MIGHT be the guy we saw a few weeks ago, but then again he might be the guy that was in Texas last year.

 

Odo MIGHT be the guy we saw through mid-June, but he could also be the guy we saw last year and in his last four starts.

 

Magill, Morin, Harper, etc. might all be diamonds in the rough, or we could very easily see why they were all readily available.

 

The point is, the team stats have been greatly affected by guys that nobody expected this kind of production from. If/when they regress to their career norms, the team numbers will surely follow.

 

Right now, I trust Berrios and every-other-game Gibson in the rotation. I don't necessarily trust Pineda, but I think you pretty much know what you're getting. I don't trust Perez and Odorizzi to continue doing what they have, and what would be necessary for them to win.

 

In the pen, I trust Rogers, and May and Duffey most of the time.

 

I want arms, and I really don't care where they are. If pens arms are easier to get, go get them. If starters are the way, go get them and hopefully whoever gets shifted takes to their new role.

 

I want this team to win, and I really don't care how they go about doing it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it depends on what is available. If there's an ace/#1 type out there, yeah, go do it. Not sure I want to pay exorbitant price though for a starter that's a marginal upgrade.

 

I do think we should be focusing hard on the pen. Lots of good options available, and I'd like at least 2 late inning types.

Yeah, I think this is true.

 

Also, there’s reason to believe the rotation is underperforming a bit right now while the bullpen is almost certainly overperforming.

 

Anyway, fix what you can and try to get the maximum gain from those pickups. I don’t really care how or where it comes from.

[IndianaTwin]

I've said this often and I'll keep saying it. 

 

We need bullpen... but we will really really really really need the bullpen if we lose a starter or two so we better find a starter and make that the top priority. 

 

If you can't find that starter... then you gotta make multiple bullpen moves to strengthen in preparation of needing the bullpen much much more based on the possibility of losing a starter or two. 

 

A top of the line starter is a much more critical need but either way... we are going to need pitching. Our pitching health is probably less sustainable than anything else we would like to sustain.

 

Yep, your last sentence is perhaps the most significant in this entire thread. So far, we have had only five starts outside of Berrios, Odo, Gibson, Perez, Pineda, and two of those were doubleheader. We’ve only lost three starts to the IL. The bullpen has also been generally healthy.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Amazing. Everything in this post is incorrect. Perez has a better than league average ERA and a pretty solid 3.78 FIP.


The overall team ERA is 3rd best in the AL. Yeah, criminal that this pitching staff is that bad. I’m not sure it has ranked better than that in 20 years.

 

They won't be by season's end.

 

The implosion has already begun in case you're not paying attention.

[Doomtints]

Bullpen pitchers get the luxury of hiding some of the runs that happen while they are on the mound in the previous pitcher's ERA.

 

Flip all of the inherited runners to the relievers to see if the Twins truly have a shut-down (or even competent) bullpen.

[FlauerPauer]

I wonder if making a trade with a team that for both a SP and RP would make it easier to acquire both. I guess I just don't know where to acquire a starter better than Berrios that a team is going to want to give up. I wonder if making a push for a rental that has postseason experience is the way to go. Zack Wheeler also poses an interesting option. Maybe a move to the bullpen makes his 98+ mph fastball that much better. 

 

Stroman and Giles from the Jays?

Bumgarner and Smith from the Giants?

Wheeler and Lugo from the Mets?

Grienke and Holland from the D'Backs?

 

I don't really see a team we get a starter from outside of these four teams. Maybe the Reds, but do they have anyone better than Berrios or anyone with playoff experience? Pirates? Seattle? Most teams in the NL are within striking distance of the wildcard game; don't see them trading good pitching away.

 

The prospects the Twins will need to give up will be costly, but that is why you have prospects; to improve the major league club. Sell high on those guys while you can!

[SpicyGarvSauce]

The only other season, IMO, that felt like this was 2006 - where the Twins have a legit chance to make a run at a World Series. That team and front office did very little to improve themselves and make that "put them over the top" move, and it obviously failed them. Swept by the Oakland A's in the ALDS.

 

You cannot assume these things are going to be long term - when you have an opportunity like this, you need to make a move(s). Go for it. I am not saying you need to mortgage the future, or sell all assets for a chance at one run, but there are ways to do it. I am sick of reading articles about how the Yankees and Astros and Dodgers are interested in certain guys - and the Twins are always middling, standing in the back, picking up Matt Capps or Jon Rauch.

 

If the Twins have as deep and good of farm system as people claim, there are ways to get deals done...for now, and the future.

[nicksaviking]

I’d take starters or relievers. But I’m doubtful any top of the rotation arms will be available, I’m more confident that late inning relievers will be.

[Vanimal46]

I’d take starters or relievers. But I’m doubtful any top of the rotation arms will be available, I’m more confident that late inning relievers will be.

I'd be curious to know the cost difference between a late inning reliever and a starter we could label as #3 or higher? It may not be that much more to go for the starter.

[ChrisKnutson]

For most of the 1st half I’ve been all in on the Stroman bandwagon, and still am to a degree because of his extra year of controllability. However, if you really want a starter with ace-like stuff, forget about Stroman and Bumgarner, the Mets have two flamethrowing starters that would fit nicely in between Berrios and Odorizzi.

 

And while I understand that most would instantly gravitate toward Syndergaard because of his controllability, I actually would prefer to pay less for similar performance in Wheeler so that we can also address our weak bullpen with a Vazquez and or Iglesias acquisition.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

For most of the 1st half I’ve been all in on the Stroman bandwagon, and still am to a degree because of his extra year of controllability. However, if you really want a starter with ace-like stuff, forget about Stroman and Bumgarner, the Mets have two flamethrowing starters that would fit nicely in between Berrios and Odorizzi.

And while I understand that most would instantly gravitate toward Syndergaard because of his controllability, I actually would prefer to pay less for similar performance in Wheeler so that we can also address our weak bullpen with a Vazquez and or Iglesias acquisition.

 

I am all in on Wheeler. That Mets team is a dumpster fire, and it is only a matter of time before they start selling.

[yarnivek1972]

The only other season, IMO, that felt like this was 2006 - where the Twins have a legit chance to make a run at a World Series. That team and front office did very little to improve themselves and make that "put them over the top" move, and it obviously failed them. Swept by the Oakland A's in the ALDS.

 

You cannot assume these things are going to be long term - when you have an opportunity like this, you need to make a move(s). Go for it. I am not saying you need to mortgage the future, or sell all assets for a chance at one run, but there are ways to do it. I am sick of reading articles about how the Yankees and Astros and Dodgers are interested in certain guys - and the Twins are always middling, standing in the back, picking up Matt Capps or Jon Rauch.

 

If the Twins have as deep and good of farm system as people claim, there are ways to get deals done...for now, and the future.

What???

 

They signed Quinton McCracken in July!!

 

Don’t hate on the Q!!

 

Also, if Liriano doesn’t blow out his elbow - something that happened just after the deadline, the Twins might not have needed much pitching help.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/5-potential-trade-packages-for-mets-right-hander-zack-wheeler/308763774

 

This article mentions the Twins as someone that could target Wheeler.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

 

What???

They signed Quinton McCracken in July!!

Don’t hate on the Q!!

Also, if Liriano doesn’t blow out his elbow - something that happened just after the deadline, the Twins might not have needed much pitching help.

 

LOL.

 

And yes, Liriano going down was a huge factor - but other than him and Johan, that rotation was pretty poor. And that lineup - meh. They started and gave Rondell White 12 AB's in the postseason, albeit he did go 5-for-12.

[ChrisKnutson]

I am all in on Wheeler. That Mets team is a dumpster fire, and it is only a matter of time before they start selling.

And if the FO likes him, we can always bring him back on an Eovaldi-like deal.

[Thegrin]

Relievers have always had a checkered history.  They are effective for a few years and then something happens and they lose their consistency.  There are very few consistent long-time relievers.  Therefore, the method the Twins are using to find relievers can work for us.   Littell, Duffy, Stewart etc. have had good outings and then are sent down to make room for a fresh arm. From this tactic, the Twins will find effective RP and replacements for the current RP should they become ineffective (Morin)