Fun With Numbers 2019

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I didn't check every team in baseball, I checked enough to be confident to say that the 2019 Twins are the only team in MLB without a three game losing streak.

 

That's... amazing. This team is approaching the halfway mark of the season and they haven't dropped three games in a row yet.

 

Another fun fact: the 2001 Mariners (116-46) didn't drop three in a row until September 22nd.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Here is some serious fun with numbers:

 

Player—Average—HR—OPS

 

Bryce Harper: 243/12/817

 

Garver: 301/11/1028

Kepler: 277/19/930

Cruz: 278/13/927

Polanco: 326/10/930

Cron: 276/15/867

Rosario: 269/19/820

Buxton: 266/9/851

 

Schoop: 258/12/783

Castro: 239/8/844

Sano: 217/7/833

[USAFChief]

Eddie Rosario, last 28 days: .223/.263/.426

 

last 365 days: .261/.292/.447

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

While I didn't check every team in baseball, I checked enough to be confident to say that the 2019 Twins are the only team in MLB without a three game losing streak.

 

That's... amazing. This team is approaching the halfway mark of the season and they haven't dropped three games in a row yet.

 

Another fun fact: the 2001 Mariners (116-46) didn't drop three in a row until September 22nd.

 

we now sit on our second 2 game losing streak this week... hopefully your posted trend continues tonight, but stop jinxing us.  

[jkcarew]

 

Eddie Rosario, last 28 days: .223/.263/.426

 

last 365 days: .261/.292/.447

Hey, Arsinio...this is supposed to be FUN with numbers. Not, "things that make you go hmmmm".

 

(But yes...probably does more bad stuff at the plate than anyone...anyone. But those freakish hands bail him out...often. His ability to make contact with almost any pitch is working against him...time for some adjustments.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cincinnati is 36-39 with a +50 run differential.

 

That's a 43-31 pythag record.

[Brandon]

Eddie Rosario, last 28 days: .223/.263/.426

 

last 365 days: .261/.292/.447

That's not fun with numbers...

[Brandon]

Duffey has given up more unearned runs than earned runs.

 

5 earned and 7 unearned = 12 total.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Cincinnati is 36-39 with a +50 run differential.

 

That's a 43-31 pythag record.

When there is a small difference between the actual and the pythag I attribute it to the manager, for better or worse. When there's a big difference it's more likely to be just a fluke, being on the winning side of games decided by a large margin and being on the losing side of games decided by a small margin.

[Mr. Brooks]

When there is a small difference between the actual and the pythag I attribute it to the manager, for better or worse. When there's a big difference it's more likely to be just a fluke, being on the winning side of games decided by a large margin and being on the losing side of games decided by a small margin.

I think you have that backwards, at least where probability theory is typically concerned.

In general, the more standard deviations you get away from the expected result, the more likely it is that there is a direct cause, and the less likely that it's just randomness. It's the first thing that casinos look for to spot possible cheating.

[Nine of twelve]

 

I think you have that backwards, at least where probability theory is typically concerned.
In general, the more standard deviations you get away from the expected result, the more likely it is that there is a direct cause, and the less likely that it's just randomness. It's the first thing that casinos look for to spot possible cheating.

But this isn't a casino. This is baseball. A manager certainly can affect the outcome of a game, but it's rarely by more than a run a game. It's only in close games where a manager is likely to change a loss to a win or vice versa. I'd have to look at Cincinnati's game-by-game performance, but I suspect it's what I had said before, that they have many lopsided wins. Managing doesn't really matter in those games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But this isn't a casino. This is baseball. A manager certainly can affect the outcome of a game, but it's rarely by more than a run a game. It's only in close games where a manager is likely to change a loss to a win or vice versa. I'd have to look at Cincinnati's game-by-game performance, but I suspect it's what I had said before, that they have many lopsided wins. Managing doesn't really matter in those games.

BaseRuns standings take into account that games are separate entities and pay attention to sequencing, good or bad (to remove the lop-sided win thing you just talked about).

 

The Reds are -7 in pythag and -5 in BaseRuns. That's not much of a difference. The Reds are playing better than their record indicates by a significant margin.

[Mr. Brooks]

But this isn't a casino. This is baseball. A manager certainly can affect the outcome of a game, but it's rarely by more than a run a game. It's only in close games where a manager is likely to change a loss to a win or vice versa. I'd have to look at Cincinnati's game-by-game performance, but I suspect it's what I had said before, that they have many lopsided wins. Managing doesn't really matter in those games.

I didn't suggest that it was the managers fault. There are many more direct causes than just randomness.

Typically in sports, teams, even great ones, should roughly split the close games. The great teams are great because they beat teams convincingly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I didn't suggest that it was the managers fault. There are many more direct causes than just randomness.
Typically in sports, teams, even great ones, should roughly split the close games. The great teams are great because they beat teams convincingly.

Great teams are "great" largely because of sequencing and luck.

Or do you think the 91 Twins were great out of sheer determination? Because that's not actual reality. Literally one lucky bounce and a deke determined that entire championship.

[Mr. Brooks]

Great teams are "great" largely because of sequencing and luck.

 

Or do you think the 91 Twins were great out of sheer determination? Because that's not actual reality. Literally one lucky bounce and a deke determined that entire championship.

I meant great over large sample sizes.

If you were to look at Golden State's last 5 regular seasons, for example, I'd wager that you'd find a team that's more or less a .500 team in close games. They win 65 to 70 games a year because they blow out teams far more often than they get blown out.

 

Of course, it is possible to have something that gives you an advantage in close games- a great bullpen in baseball, a clutch kicker in football, etc. But in general, I think being exceptional in close games in more often than not a fluke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I meant great over large sample sizes.
If you were to look at Golden State's last 5 regular seasons, for example, I'd wager that you'd find a team that's more or less a .500 team in close games. They win 65 to 70 games a year because they blow out teams far more often than they get blown out.

Of course, it is possible to have something that gives you an advantage in close games- a great bullpen in baseball, a clutch kicker in football, etc. But in general, I think being exceptional in close games in more often than not a fluke.

I fully agree, at least certainly in baseball, which has much more variance game-over-game (for example, on any given night it would not be surprising to see the Orioles beat the Astros).

[70charger]

 

I meant great over large sample sizes.
If you were to look at Golden State's last 5 regular seasons, for example, I'd wager that you'd find a team that's more or less a .500 team in close games. They win 65 to 70 games a year because they blow out teams far more often than they get blown out.

Of course, it is possible to have something that gives you an advantage in close games- a great bullpen in baseball, a clutch kicker in football, etc. But in general, I think being exceptional in close games in more often than not a fluke.

 

I really enjoy your takes on stats. I think your skeptical interpretation is closer to the truth than most.

[Vanimal46]

NOT Fun with Numbers:

 

In Cleveland's next 35 games, only 3 games (against the Twins) are against teams with a record above .500. This will be their time to make a run if it's in the cards this season.

Since I posted this, Cleveland have a record 10-3, and the Twins have gone 7-6. Cleveland's easy schedule continues... They play 5 games against teams over .500 until the trade deadline. Minnesota plays 19 (!!) games against teams over .500 in that same stretch.

 

This is concerning...

Edited June 25, 2019 by Vanimal46

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Since I posted this, Cleveland have a record 10-3, and the Twins have gone 7-6. Cleveland's easy schedule continues... They play 5 games against teams over .500 until the trade deadline. Minnesota plays 19 (!!) games against teams over .500 in that same stretch.

This is concerning...

Fortunately for the front office, the season ends before the trade deadline, on or around July 27th every year Edited June 25, 2019 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Brock Beauchamp]

The 2019 Twins are now tracking slightly above their 2018 attendance numbers (24,569 to 24,489).

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins have 3 players with 50 or more RBI (Rosario, Kepler, Cron). The Yankees, Phillies and Nationals are the only other teams with more than one.

Edited June 27, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Nine of twelve]

Going into today's games Detroit was in fifth place in the AL Central, a half game ahead of the fourth place Royals.

[Vanimal46]

Fun with graphs!

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

First NFL football game in London: New York Giants 13, Miami Dolphins 10

 

First MLB baseball game in London: New York Yankees 17, Boston Red Sox 13

 

 

h/t ash

Edited June 30, 2019 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[SirLoin]

The Twins are 7-9 since retiring Joe Mauer's number.  Somewhere Jim Souhan is laughing maniacally.  

[Vanimal46]

 

*Whisper voice*

 

The Twins developed their own fireman for the bullpen.

[Nine of twelve]

The Twins have 60 games remaining against teams other than Cleveland; Cleveland has 61 games remaining against teams other than the Twins. If the two teams wind up with the same number of wins in those games then Cleveland would have to win 10 of the remaining 12 games between the two teams in order to finish ahead of the Twins.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The Twins have 60 games remaining against teams other than Cleveland; Cleveland has 61 games remaining against teams other than the Twins. If the two teams wind up with the same number of wins in those games then Cleveland would have to win 10 of the remaining 12 games between the two teams in order to finish ahead of the Twins.

Numbers: check

Fun: check

[Vanimal46]

 

Perspective... It was a hell of a run.

[Whammy]

Positional OPS Tuesday is back

 

Overall - 1st

 

C - 1st

1B - 15th

2B - 2nd

3B - 17th

SS - 4th

LF - 19th

CF - 9th

RF - 17th

DH - 6th (2nd in the AL)