Fun With Numbers 2019

[Mike Frasier Law]

 

Jake Odorizzi is the 19th best SP in baseball by WAR. 12th best by ERA despite posting a 26.2% GB.

 

He's successful so far b/c of a miniscule HR/FB ratio... 6th best in the majors.

According to Fangraphs rankings (WAR), Twins have 3 SP in the top 25. Odorizzi, Berrios, aaaaaand.... Martin Perez.

[Whammy]

 

Update, 1 week later...

 

OPS by position, MLB Ranking (last week)

 

C - 1st (2)

1B - 21st (18)

2B - 8th (7)

3B - 26th (27)

SS - 6th (1)

LF - 12th (12)

CF - 11th (3)

RF - 6th (21)

DH - 6th (3)

 

Overall - 1st

 

Interesting that in general, our positional rankings dropped, but our overall ranking moved up to 1st.

 

If it's a Tuesday, it's OPS Ranks!

 

Position - Rank (last week, previous week,....)

 

C - 2nd (1,2)

1B - 26th (21,18)

2B - 7th (8,7)

3B - 26th (26,27)

SS - 3rd (6,1)

LF - 20th (12,12)

CF - 8th (11,3)

RF - 13th (6,21)

DH - 6th (6,3)

 

Overall - 3rd (1)

 

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins could have 11 players with at least 10 HR in 2019. Although, Marwin and Byron have to pick up the pace and Miguel has to get on the field.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cleveland, despite already being 4.0 games behind the Twins, is actually worse than their pythag (+3 games) and BaseRuns (+4 games).

 

Depending on your metric of choice, Cleveland should be 6.0 or 7.0 games behind the Twins if all things were equal (the Twins are +1 in both metrics).

 

And that will likely change after tonight, given how the Twins are just pounding the Blue Jays right now.

[USAFChief]

Jorge Polanco was 3-3 last night before the Toronto 9 hole hitter had a plate appearance.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Last night, the Twins had 4 home runs. They've now had as many 4 homer games as they had in all of 2018.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

Jorge Polanco was 3-3 last night before the Toronto 9 hole hitter had a plate appearance.

Amazing

[USAFChief]

Joey Gallo is the first player in MLB history to reach 100 HRs for his career...before reaching 100 singles for his career.

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/05/08/joey-gallo-becomes-first-player-to-reach-100-career-homers-before-100-singles/

 

**** "TTO"

[MMMordabito]

Twins current home run paces:

 

I used 162/35 to get a 4.63 multiplier (probably not the most scientific approach given PA disparity)

 

Kepler - 32

Polanco - 32

Cruz - 32

Rosario - 60

Cron - 32

Gonzalez - 9

Garver - 32

Schoop - 28

Buxton - 5 (69 doubles though)

 

Bench:

 

Castro - 19

Astudillo - 9

Adrianza - 5

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Joey Gallo is the first player in MLB history to reach 100 HRs for his career...before reaching 100 singles for his career.

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/05/08/joey-gallo-becomes-first-player-to-reach-100-career-homers-before-100-singles/

 

**** "TTO"

He's the prototype for 3 true outcomes... Gross.

[Whammy]

The Twins could have 11 players with at least 10 HR in 2019. Although, Marwin and Byron have to pick up the pace and Miguel has to get on the field.

Astudillo would make 12, right. I mean, he’s on pace for 9, so certainly not a stretch.

[MMMordabito]

How is Mike Minor worth 1 whole win more than Jose Berrios right now?  Is a complete game shutout that heavily weighted or something? Is it because he pitches in the Ranger crackerbox?

[dbminn]

Twins are still leading ISO at .235 (SLG-AVG). What's surprising is they are ranked 27th in K% - or 4th best. The MLB average K% is 23.2%. Seven Twins hitters are at or below 20.2%. 

[cardsfan]

Twins current home run paces:

 

I used 162/35 to get a 4.63 multiplier (probably not the most scientific approach given PA disparity)

 

Kepler - 32

Polanco - 32

Cruz - 32

Rosario - 60

Cron - 32

Gonzalez - 9

Garver - 32

Schoop - 28

Buxton - 5 (69 doubles though)

 

Bench:

 

Castro - 19

Astudillo - 9

Adrianza - 5

Will be interesting the next 20% of the season. Why the power surge? Stadium? Launch angle?

[Platoon]

There is only one question remaining this season: MN Twins. Great team? Or Greatest team ever?

[yarnivek1972]

Astudillo would make 12, right. I mean, he’s on pace for 9, so certainly not a stretch.

I personally am not convinced his HR power is real and I think it is doubtful that he gets even 300 at bats.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There is only one question remaining this season: MN Twins. Great team? Or Greatest team ever?

Ask that one again in November.  Second one requires a WS win in my opinion.

[MMMordabito]

Eddie Rosario's career BABIP = .313

 

Eddie Rosario's 2019 BABIP = .177

 

There's sacrificing some average for power, and then there is apparently the voodoo version of sacrificing average for power.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Eddie Rosario's career BABIP = .313

 

Eddie Rosario's 2019 BABIP = .177

 

There's sacrificing some average for power, and then there is apparently the voodoo version of sacrificing average for power.

 

Cannot wait until that 2019 number normalizes.

[yarnivek1972]

Eddie Rosario's career BABIP = .313

 

Eddie Rosario's 2019 BABIP = .177

 

There's sacrificing some average for power, and then there is apparently the voodoo version of sacrificing average for power.

It should be noted that his 13 HR don’t count as “balls in play”. That accounts for almost half of his hits. That’s going to impact his BABIP significantly.

[MMMordabito]

 

It should be noted that his 13 HR don’t count as “balls in play”. That accounts for almost half of his hits. That’s going to impact his BABIP significantly.

 

I was aware of that.  Actually, his BABIP is .180 now.  Exactly 18/100.

 

Last year's top 5 home run hitters had BABIP ranging from .249 - .375, so Rosario is still significantly outside that range.  

[Mr. Brooks]

How is Mike Minor worth 1 whole win more than Jose Berrios right now? Is a complete game shutout that heavily weighted or something? Is it because he pitches in the Ranger crackerbox?

It is indeed the stadium. Minor has a 204 ERA+.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not exactly fun with numbers but I just realized that Rocco Baldelli is younger than Nelson Cruz.

[yarnivek1972]

Twins have 8 hitters with an ISO over .200. Four are over .300. One is over .400.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins have outscored their opponents 26-1 in their last 4 games.

[ashbury]

The Twins have outscored their opponents 26-1 in their last 4 games.

They had opponents?

[USAFChief]

At .667, Rocco Baldelli has the highest career winning percentage* of any manager in MLB history.

 

*minimum 36 games.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

They had opponents?

I could further add that those 4 games amount to half of their season run differential. 

[USAFChief]

Byron Buxton has a higher OPS than both Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In that vein...

 

Who has the higher OPS: Jorge Polanco, or Jason Castro?