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Fun With Numbers 2019

Vanimal46

By Vanimal46
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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Dantes929 FCL Twins

Dantes929

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Posted
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Fun with numbers: the guy hitting .333 is one wind-blown popup from batting .167.

I think at that time he had hit another popup that was caught so technically, he was also one wind blown popup from batting .500. :)

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ashbury GOAT

ashbury

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Posted
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Career BA:

 

Willians Astudillo .368

Ty Cobb .366

Doesn't look sustainable. Cobb's BA is built on a BABIP of .383. When that eventually normalizes to a league-average, look for the Georgia Peach's numbers to come crashing down.

 

Willians's BABIP is a more svelte .352. I like his chances.

 

The difference comes because Cobb was a veritable strikeout machine, K'ing a massive 680 times in just 24 years. That's why his BA is so much lower than his BABIP. Our guy has struck out just 3 times in his entire major league career.

 

Cobb also appeared to be nearly incapable of playing anywhere on the field except CF - he worked a little in RF, now and then, probably to great detriment to the team. Astudillo? Where CAN'T he play? Case closed.

Dantes929 FCL Twins

Dantes929

Verified Member
Posted
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Doesn't look sustainable. Cobb's BA is built on a BABIP of .383. When that eventually normalizes to a league-average, look for the Georgia Peach's numbers to come crashing down.

 

Willians's BABIP is a more svelte .352. I like his chances.

 

The difference comes because Cobb was a veritable strikeout machine, K'ing a massive 680 times in just 24 years. That's why his BA is so much lower than his BABIP. Our guy has struck out just 3 times in his entire major league career.

 

Cobb also appeared to be nearly incapable of playing anywhere on the field except CF - he worked a little in RF, now and then, probably to great detriment to the team. Astudillo? Where CAN'T he play? Case closed.

Forget Turtle.   What's Spanish for GOAT?

sampleSizeOfOne MVP

sampleSizeOfOne

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Posted
Posted

Doesn't look sustainable. Cobb's BA is built on a BABIP of .383. When that eventually normalizes to a league-average, look for the Georgia Peach's numbers to come crashing down.

 

Willians's BABIP is a more svelte .352. I like his chances.

 

The difference comes because Cobb was a veritable strikeout machine, K'ing a massive 680 times in just 24 years. That's why his BA is so much lower than his BABIP. Our guy has struck out just 3 times in his entire major league career.

 

Cobb also appeared to be nearly incapable of playing anywhere on the field except CF - he worked a little in RF, now and then, probably to great detriment to the team. Astudillo? Where CAN'T he play? Case closed.

Too lazy to look up the numbers, but i bet management agrees. This is why Willians commands the larger salary?

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

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Posted
Posted

With 4 Plate Appearances in 2019, versus 3 apiece for Castro and Garver, Willians Astudillo is listed by baseball-reference.com this morning as the starting catcher for the Minnesota Twins. Congratulations on the promotion!

jorgenswest St Paul Saints

jorgenswest

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Martin Perez highest average fastball velocity [in any given year] 2012-2018: 93.1mph.

Martin Perez average fastball velocity 2019: 95.2mph.

The increase in velocity is real. I would imagine the changes he has made to his delivery are causing some of the troubles with command. I think that will improve as the year progresses.

AlwaysinModeration Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

AlwaysinModeration

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Apparently the ability to hit the ball with exit velocity of 108mph or greater has been proven statistically to correlate with OPS. Two Twins have four such hits this year (placing them tied for seventh in MLB):

 

Nelson Cruz

Byron Buxton

 

Oh, and Schoop has three.

yarnivek1972 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

yarnivek1972

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Apparently the ability to hit the ball with exit velocity of 108mph or greater has been proven statistically to correlate with OPS. Two Twins have four such hits this year (placing them tied for seventh in MLB):

 

Nelson Cruz

Byron Buxton

 

Oh, and Schoop has three.

Yet Kepler is the one with 3 big flies...

Jham FCL Twins

Jham

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Apparently the ability to hit the ball with exit velocity of 108mph or greater has been proven statistically to correlate with OPS. Two Twins have four such hits this year (placing them tied for seventh in MLB):

 

Nelson Cruz

Byron Buxton

 

Oh, and Schoop has three.

4 such hits.. Schoop has 3... Cruz has 1... Buck has...? I guess we're having fun with numbers!

Vanimal46 Cooperstown

Vanimal46

Old-Timey Member
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Not Twins related...

 

Chris Davis on the Orioles is 2 ABs shy of the ML record for longest stretch of ABs without a hit. He's 0-44 currently dating back to September 2018.

yarnivek1972 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

yarnivek1972

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Not Twins related...

 

Chris Davis on the Orioles is 2 ABs shy of the ML record for longest stretch of ABs without a hit. He's 0-44 currently dating back to September 2018.

Is that including pitchers or not?

 

btw, the O’s still owe him almost $70,000,000.

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

btw, the O’s still owe him almost $70,000,000.

Actually more than that. $92 mil in salary for 2019-2022. That includes deferred money (they'll be paying him until 2037) -- with the deferral discount, MLB estimated the present-day value at about 92% when the contract was signed, or $84 mil remaining.

 

Plus they still own him deferred money from 2016-2018 too -- that's another $18 mil.

Puckett34 FCL Twins

Puckett34

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Not Twins related...

Chris Davis on the Orioles is 2 ABs shy of the ML record for longest stretch of ABs without a hit. He's 0-44 currently dating back to September 2018.

And 1 for his last 60. Thought Buxton's April of 2017 bad.

yarnivek1972 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

yarnivek1972

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Actually more than that. $92 mil in salary for 2019-2022. That includes deferred money (they'll be paying him until 2037) -- with the deferral discount, MLB estimated the present-day value at about 92% when the contract was signed, or $84 mil remaining.

 

Plus they still own him deferred money from 2016-2018 too -- that's another $18 mil.

Yeah, math. Somehow I only calculated 3 more years. He still has FOUR seasons remaining.

 

Unless something changes for him in a big way, he’s going to be the answer to “Worst pro Contract” forever.

yarnivek1972 Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

yarnivek1972

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

First time I have seen a negative OPS+. He is -53 through 8 games so is on pace for a -1073 for the year.

Davis already has 5 of the top 30 single season marks. 13 K in 27 PA. If he actually gets 500 PA, that pace would break the current record by more than 30.

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

First time I have seen a negative OPS+. He is -53 through 8 games so is on pace for a -1073 for the year.

Unfortunately OPS+ is a rate stat. :)

 

In terms of counting stats, Davis is at -0.5 fWAR already, so he's on pace for -9.

Dantes929 FCL Twins

Dantes929

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Unfortunately OPS+ is a rate stat. :)

In terms of counting stats, Davis is at -0.5 fWAR already, so he's on pace for -9.

Fun with numbers :).    I was considering using a pitcher for the absurd like if Gibson makes 35 starts he is on a pace for an ERA of 337.35 but Davis presented itself.

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