What does Arizona take for Greinke?

[ashbury]

If that's the case, I withdraw my objection but I still think it's good for next year, and probably not so good past next year.

MLR, on an unrelated note, you seem to be unable to receive messages via the PM system - is your mailbox full?

[nicksaviking]

Exactly right.  He is much closer to a salary dump than many posters here seem to think.  I think if Gonsalves and another guy like Blankenthorn are on the table, you could probably get them to kick in cash and take Castro.  (Castro serves something of a purpose for them too.  Their catching was ridiculously awful)

I agree that Greinke fits the salary dump profile. But does AZ fit that profile? If they’re rebuilding and not chasing free agents do they NEED that money off of the books? It’s not like they are a Pittsburgh or Kansas City market. Here in the much more thrifty Minnesota we’d be screaming bloody murder if the Twins choose not to eat the salary at the expense of prospects.

[Winston Smith]

 

The very nature of free agency is to pay more than the other teams are willing to pay to acquire the baseball player. 

 

Once this process takes place. The Players already costs in salary more than the other teams are willing to pay. 

 

If Arizona is truly thinking about a rebuild. They want the money back so they have the financial flexibility to add different pieces in the future. 

 

Sure they would like a team to give them Royce Lewis in exchange plus take on the financial responsibility for that contract in addition but that isn't going to happen. 

 

What would take to get Greinke? Take the contract and throw in a 40th round draft pick to get the deal done. Now the Twins have the contract that is already higher than any other team was willing to pay for a pitcher that is much older than when the contract was originally signed. The Twins are not going to do that. 

 

So... The Twins are going to talk to Arizona about taking on some of that financial responsibility.

 

That's when I can't answer the question anymore because the answer will be dependent on the dollar value of Royce Lewis and the Dollar Value of Lewis Thorpe and the Dollar Value of Jake Odorizzi and the Dollar Value of Travis Blankenhorn for examples. 

 

If the Twins threw in Blankenhorn for example... how much would Arizona eat in Greinke salary for Blankenhorn? If the Twins threw in Lewis Thorpe how much now? If the Twins threw in Odrizzi with his one year contract and factor in the value of that one year before FA... How much value is that worth to Arizona will become a number that they will contribute to the Twins to pay off the rest of Greinke's contract. 

 

And of course... this same game is going to played with the Yankees and Astros or any team that is looking for a sensible solution to upgrading the rotation. 

 

And then you factor in James Paxton being available with a much better contract and Kluber possibly being available and DeGrom or whoever, plus the FA's and now supply and demand works against Arizona. You can couple that with the fact that he is already making more than anybody was comfortable paying and then you start reaching the point where the return is so low that Arizona doesn't trade him because the numbers he might produce might be more than the return. 

 

I guess... I'm saying... I don't think it would take much at all. Just a willingness to take on more of the salary than other teams are. 

The Twins are well known for taking on salary that others won't so you are saying it's a done deal?

[Shaitan]

 

Arizona is rebuilding.  And down here, in AZ, they are talking about having to attach Grienke to a Goldschmidt deal just so someone will take him.

 

It won't cost Graterol.  Gonsalves could headline a package and still have the D-backs kick in cash.

 

Gonsalves is the kind of return a team gets in a fire sale, not a rebuild.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I agree that Greinke fits the salary dump profile. But does AZ fit that profile? If they’re rebuilding and not chasing free agents do they NEED that money off of the books? It’s not like they are a Pittsburgh or Kansas City market. Here in the much more thrifty Minnesota we’d be screaming bloody murder if the Twins choose not to eat the salary at the expense of prospects.

 

All reports down here is that they are treating it as a need.  I agree with your logic, but their owner also has a Pohladian reputation down here.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Gonsalves is the kind of return a team gets in a fire sale, not a rebuild.

 

I believe they see dumping Grienke as a fire sale.  Goldschmidt is step one of the rebuild.

 

I think you can do both in the same offseason.  When Grienke is dealt, I think we'll agree it's a shockingly low return.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Twins are well known for taking on salary that others won't so you are saying it's a done deal?

 

The Twins were chosen for the nickname in the end. But, the Drunken Sailors was a real close 2nd as a reflection of their spending habits. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Depends on how much salary the Twins take on. They wouldn't have to offer much if they take on Grienke's entire salary... i.e. the Yankees trade for Stanton last year.

 

Probably not realistic for our Twins though. The more money Arizona eats, the better the prospects the Twins have to give up.

if the Twins take on Grienke’s full salary, the snakes need to throw in a prospect or two, decent ones

[Blackjack]

Too old, too expensive, move on.

[ashbury]

The Twins were chosen for the nickname in the end. But, the Drunken Sailors was a real close 2nd as a reflection of their spending habits. 

With John Beresford Tipton, Jr. for an owner, who hired Michael Anthony as his GM to hand out those large paychecks, those were golden years.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Millionaire_(TV_series)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Too old, too expensive, move on.

i disagree, Greinke only has 3 years left, free agency tends to be 4 years + for high end starters, no matter the age.

 

According to mlb trade rumors, Twins are favored to sign JA Happ, who’s 36 and is projected to get a 3 year deal.

 

I’d definitely prefer Greinki. Low prospect cost or bringing in additional prospects depending on how much salary the Twins take on.

[howieramone2]

I would take Greinke over last off season's Darvish 10 times out of 10. Any team doing a full rebuild would drool looking at our farm system.

[MABB1959]

Why can't they ever go Evoldi big?  From everything I have read they aren't going for anything big this year either.  I don't think they ever will.  This was to be the year with Mauer gone that they would go big.  Now it is next year next year it will be next year.  I wish they would bring Santana back but that won't happen and I am sure that is good for Santana!

[nytwinsfan]

I wouldn't do it unless it is for only B level prospects or lower (i.e., no Graterol or Larnach or higher) and they eat a decent amount (at least 1/3) of salary. Since that is unlikely, I probably wouldn't do it.

[ahart10]

Kohl Stewart and Zach Littel for Greinke and 10 mil per year. Going forward you can expect #4 production from Greinke I think and that’s worth ~ 10-15 on the open market. So I expect more of a salary dump type trade. I’m not willing to give up any of Gonzo, Jay, Thorpe group for that contract.

[ashbury]

Kohl Stewart and Zach Littel for Greinke and 10 mil per year. Going forward you can expect #4 production from Greinke I think and that’s worth ~ 10-15 on the open market. So I expect more of a salary dump type trade. I’m not willing to give up any of Gonzo, Jay, Thorpe group for that contract.

They apparently will give Greinke and his contract to the team that offers the nicest supply of pitcher's rosin or sunflower seeds. They won't, however, pay $30M for Stewart and Littel, methinks.

[ahart10]

Maybe $30 mil is too much but it’s not for Stewart and Little it’s for getting rid of the other $60 left on the books.

[ashbury]

Maybe $30 mil is too much but it’s not for Stewart and Little it’s for getting rid of the other $60 left on the books.

If they find no takers for the straight transfer I suggested, then yep, that might be where they turn next. I'm guessing it will stop well short of that.

[Dr. Evil]

Not worth dreaming about imho.

[jorgenswest]

Why not take on the whole contract? The Twins are in better position to do this than most other teams. The Twins can start by expecting a prospect exchange in their favor to take on the whole contract.

[Kelly Vance]

I'd rather have Pax. My eagle spirit guide says he is Big Medicine.

 

 

[Twins33]

I'd rather have Pax. My eagle spirit guide says he is Big Medicine.

Yanks decided they wanted him.

[Jacksson]

What would it take to get: Madbum, Belt & Panik from the Giants?

[Riverbrian]

 

What would it take to get: Madbum, Belt & Panik from the Giants?

 

If I was the Giants... I wouldn't be as concerned about moving money off the books as I would be about tearing it down and rebuilding a pretty crappy farm system. In other words... I wouldn't want anything to lessen the decent prospects I would get back in a Madison Bumgarner deal. 

 

Madbum is a bargain at 12M. He has 1 year left and will probably cost some prospects that we'd hate to give up. 

 

Brandon Belt has 3 years left on his deal at 17.2 million a year and the Giants would love to move his contract to anyone who would take it. 

 

Panik... He's alright... He has two years of control and just might fetch a prospect in return. 

 

Basically... If I'm Farhan Zaidi... I'm keeping Belt as far away from a Bumgarner trade as possible.

 

I would absolutely start tearing it down and I'd be moving any player that brought back a decent prospect because I think they are in a bad place at the moment. The problem is that they don't have a lot of players who will bring back decent prospects. They are old, expensive, injured or under-performing primarily. 

 

I'm trading Bumgarner in a deal all by himself for maximum return of prospects.

 

The Giants have always had high payroll so I'm eating the Belt deal and taking whatever production he gives me for the duration because no GM is going to call asking for him. 

 

Any team, that calls for Bumgarner, will hear Zaidi on the other end asking for whoever their top prospect and he probably won't move from that position. 

[Vanimal46]

If I knew Mad Bum will commit to a long term deal with the Twins after this year I'd part with Lewis with no hesitation. That guy is the definition of a work horse ace. He's a unicorn in today's MLB.

[Brandon]

I think most teams view Greinke as a 3 year 25 million per season as solid. So Arizona would only need to kick in 20 million in a trade that should net decent talent back. We clearly have the prospects to make that work. I don't think Arizona would take Odorizzi and throw in 20 million. But maybe we could include him and get 15 million and include a few mlb ready prospects. Arizona could use the savings to resign Goldschmidt.

So I think Odorizzi, May (an inexpensive bullpen arm) and Mejia for Greinke and at least 15 million to as close to 20 million as possible could work for both sides.

 

As much as I would like Greinke, I don't think the Twins are up for that expense. And if payroll is at most 110 million then neither am I.

[notoriousgod71]

 

If I knew Mad Bum will commit to a long term deal with the Twins after this year I'd part with Lewis with no hesitation. That guy is the definition of a work horse ace. He's a unicorn in today's MLB.

 

 

I think he'd be an excellent opener.

[TheLeviathan]

If the red flags with Pax were enough to drive his price down that far....imagine the offers AZ is getting for Grienke and his red flags.

[Mike Sixel]

Does anyone really think the Twins will trade for Greinke? Based on all the years of history, and two off seasons of basically doing nothing?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Does anyone really think the Twins will trade for Greinke? Based on all the years of history, and two off seasons of basically doing nothing?

 

No, but if we used that rationale before posting we could all but shut this thing down.