Another article on Joe and the HoF

[alexlegge]

There’s an author who works for MLB.com - that’s right, he actually represents the sport itself - who annually publishes a list of active players who seem possibly destined for Cooperstown: https://www.mlb.com/news/potential-hall-of-famers-who-will-play-in-2018/c-264650420

 

His list includes Yadier Molina but not Mauer. I’ve seen this on other similar types of lists too. Here’s the issue...Yadier Molina is older than Mauer and, remarkably, has *less* bWAR for his entire career than Mauer has for only his peak-7 years as a catcher. Don’t let anyone try to convince you that Molina is more worthy. It’s just silly.

[yarnivek1972]

They are both more worthy than Hall of Famer Rick Ferrell.

[dgwills]

Obviously without the concussions Mauer gets in no problem. With the late resurgence and the increased value of OBP in baseball I think he has a small chance to get in. The killer is that the Joe never had any post season success. That's what keeps him off of these lists.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt that the writer simply forgot about Mauer, as he clearly should have been in that third tier.

[KGB]

 

I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt that the writer simply forgot about Mauer, as he clearly should have been in that third tier.

That maybe one of Mauer biggest problem - national people simply forgetting about him.  With no postseason memories/success and 10 -15 years from his batting titles when he eligible for the Hall, it will be hard to get 75% of the votes.

[gunnarthor]

 

That maybe one of Mauer biggest problem - national people simply forgetting about him.  With no postseason memories/success and 10 -15 years from his batting titles when he eligible for the Hall, it will be hard to get 75% of the votes.

I disagree. I don't think he'll go in first ballot but he'll get in in three or four vote cycles. The "stupid old voter" will vote for Mauer b/c of the batting titles and MVP that had never been done before while the "smart new voter" will vote for him based on JAWS or something. Since there is something for each voter, the main issue they will all tackle would be "was his peak long enough". It'll take a few years, but he'll get in.

[gunnarthor]

 

And if he misses on those then the Veterans Committee will get their say when the Modern Era panel of HOFers get to make their choices. A panal that is eligible to be voted upon and argued for by men like Paul Molitor, Jack Morris, Dave Winfield, Jim Thome and Bert Blyleven.

This if off topic and  your post was clearly cheeky but I do hope the Vets Committee does a decent job of examining the long list of pitchers that the BBWAA have ignored since about 1992. It wasn't just Jack Morris. The BBWAA have held incredibly high standards for starting pitchers for the last 25 years and that's hurt Johan but it also hurt guys like Cone, Brown, Appier, Saberhagen, Radke, El Presidente, Moyer etc. They don't all deserve to be HOFers of course, but they probably deserved longer looks than they got. 

[Danchat]

 

That maybe one of Mauer biggest problem - national people simply forgetting about him.  With no postseason memories/success and 10 -15 years from his batting titles when he eligible for the Hall, it will be hard to get 75% of the votes.

Reminds of how Joe Mauer was shown on the big screen during the Super Bowl... and there was no fan reaction because few know who he even is.

 

Yeah, Joe's OPS of .641 during the playoffs is pretty disappointing for a Hall of Fame candidate. Just 1 RBI and 1 run in 44 PAs.

[ewen21]

I have never seen so many "is he a HOFer" discussions about an active player. 

[old nurse]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-mauer-and-the-rule-of-2000/

 

[70charger]

 

I have never seen so many "is he a HOFer" discussions about an active player. 

 

Think maybe it's because so few players, active or otherwise, deserve the conversation?

[alexlegge]

I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt that the writer simply forgot about Mauer, as he clearly should have been in that third tier.

 

I was also assuming/hoping this, but I checked the same author’s rendition of the article from last year and he actually mentions Mauer as someone who has fallen off the list since his position change.

 

I understand why playoff performance and championships factor into the argument against Mauer, but the Molina-over-Mauer thing seems as crazy as a HoF that inducts Jack Morris but not Mike Mussina...

...

 

oh...wait...

 

:^@

[Doctor Wu]

I don't have a crystal ball, but I believe that Mauer will eventually make the HOF. A great first decade as an all-star catcher. plus the past couple of years have shown that he's still capable of putting up impressive numbers and adapting very well to a new position. I hope he makes it. Molina? I understand the love but I've always thought he was overrated.

[ewen21]

Is this thread meant to confront people who don't feel Mauer has earned his plaque in Cooperstown, or is about an article that compares Joe to Molina?  I am actually being serious.  I will try to address that and a little bit more.

 

 

Think maybe it's because so few players, active or otherwise, deserve the conversation?

If he were a sure thing these kinds of threads would not pop up every couple of weeks.  I think we all know in our heart of hearts the reason behind all these "Mauer for the HOF" threads is because the hometown fans want Joe to be enshrined.  The lobbying process has been in force for several years already.  It is as simple as that and it is understandable, but I do not think it is "silly" if he doesn't get in to the HOF.  Not if you know about the process and consider that your Twins fan bias might cloud your vision.  It doesn't for me.  In my opinion, based off what the criteria has been since about the 1950s, Joe isn't there.  The HOF requires players to reach career milestones.  Think back to a month ago when Joe collected his 2,000 hit and what a big deal that was for the fans and our board.  Was that silly? 

 

He isn't going to make it for a number of obvious reasons.  First is because he is not going to be viewed as a catcher.  I keep seeing articles that lump him in with catchers and you can't do that.  The Baseball Writer's Association of America isn't going to do that and they do the voting.  The fact is, he played 897 games at catcher and 887 elsewhere.  If he can manage to stay healthy within the next three weeks he will have played more games away from catcher than he did as a catcher.  People like to throw Mickey Cochrane out there because his power isn't there, but bear in mind he caught almost 600 more games as a catcher and retired with a .320 batting average.  That is pretty significant.  He was also from a totally different era and lifetime, to the point where his numbers are irrelevant by today's standard.  YOu would have to be one looking to change (read lower) standards and I am not in that camp.  To me, the "he's a catcher" argument isn't going to work.  The numbers do not back up that claim.  Not when more than half of the games he played were at other positions.

 

As far as Molina is concerned, I could not care less about him, or what these sportswriter's or media outlets say about him.  They don't move me at all.  I don't think he is quite a HOFer, but what Molina has been his entire career is a CATCHER.  He can say that, Joe cannot (concussion or whatever the reason).  Joe will not be viewed solely as a catcher.  Bench, Carter, Piazza, Pudge, Berra, etc,.....those are CATCHERS as in they played catcher their ENTIRE CAREER.  Joe does not at this point and has not for years.   If the Baseball Writer's Association of America doesn't vote him in it is most certainly not a travesty and it certainly wouldn't be "silly".  A travesty (or "silly") would be LeVelle E Neal III not giving Pedro Martinez a vote in his first year of eligibility.

 

 

What is wrong with saying he did some great things for a period of time, but these last eight years will be a big reason why he won't make it?  In his seasons since that contract kicked in (coincidence or not) he had this for a slash line: .291-8-56.  Before that gets dismissed that because I don't mention any analytics, consider who is voting.  Then also consider there are a number of offensive metrics that make Joe look bad.   It is a double edged sword.  For starters, his ISO has been absolutely horrid for years.   He has set near the bottom in hitting extra base hits for years now.  Like 140th out of 150something qualifiers awful.  That is beside the point, but if you want to beat the analytics drum then EVERYTHING is in play (not just the ones where walks enhance the numbers). 

 

In the end, Mauer is a fringe guy, kind of like Don Mattingly. If Mauer doesn't get in, I will not be because some conspiracy is afoot, or some pernicious anti- Minnesota bias is being applied to him.  JOe is not getting in won't be because of the market he played in or that he has a bland personality.  It will be for what he did (and didn't do) on the baseball field.  One big strike against him besides his lack of longevity at catcher (which Molina has) is the lack of power.  If he had beefier home run and RBI totals then he would have a better chance, but he is a singles hitter.  If your calling card is your bat and you are going to be a singles hitter you darn well better hit the 3,000 milestone.  If not you just aren't making the HOF.

 

Maybe I am silly?  Or am I just being honest?

[Squirrel]

 

 

 

Maybe I am silly?  Or am I just being honest?

No one is being silly for expressing an opinion one way or another. I changed the title to not suggest anyone is being silly.

 

For all other posters ... let's just agree or disagree without putting these silly characteristics on posters who may not see things as you do or as you believe they are.

[ewen21]

 

No one is being silly for expressing an opinion one way or another. I changed the title to not suggest anyone is being silly.

 

For all other posters ... let's just agree or disagree without putting these silly characteristics on posters who may not see things as you do or as you believe they are.

Thanks Carol.  This isn't actually important to me although I have my opinion on the matter.

 

I feel that if he was able to catch the whole time it would be different, but he has now spent a lot of time at first base.  So much so this disqualifies him from being grouped with HOF catchers who spent their whole careers playing catcher.  Saying he IS a catcher is not right if we are trying to maintain integrity (that is what I think at least).  He was a catcher for half his career.  

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mauer has more fWAR than Pedrioa and is basically the same age.

 

Pedrioa was mediocre in 2017 and hasn't played this year.

 

Yet he's on the list and Mauer isn't.

 

Lazzzzzzyyyyyyyyyyyy.

[Nine of twelve]

HOF voting is so subjective. So, so subjective. It's very easy for one borderline candidate to get in and for another equally borderline candidate never to come close. In Mauer's case, it's obviously about longevity. In 2009 he was the best baseball player in the world, and it wasn't a fluke. That deserves some sort of consideration.

[mickeymental]

 

The killer is that the Joe never had any post season success. That's what keeps him off of these lists.

he'll always have the cuzzy double of '09.

[Sssuperdave]

 

Is this thread meant to confront people who don't feel Mauer has earned his plaque in Cooperstown, or is about an article that compares Joe to Molina?  I am actually being serious.  I will try to address that and a little bit more.

 

 

If he were a sure thing these kinds of threads would not pop up every couple of weeks.  I think we all know in our heart of hearts the reason behind all these "Mauer for the HOF" threads is because the hometown fans want Joe to be enshrined.  The lobbying process has been in force for several years already.  It is as simple as that and it is understandable, but I do not think it is "silly" if he doesn't get in to the HOF.  Not if you know about the process and consider that your Twins fan bias might cloud your vision.  It doesn't for me.  In my opinion, based off what the criteria has been since about the 1950s, Joe isn't there.  The HOF requires players to reach career milestones.  Think back to a month ago when Joe collected his 2,000 hit and what a big deal that was for the fans and our board.  Was that silly? 

 

He isn't going to make it for a number of obvious reasons.  First is because he is not going to be viewed as a catcher.  I keep seeing articles that lump him in with catchers and you can't do that.  The Baseball Writer's Association of America isn't going to do that and they do the voting.  The fact is, he played 897 games at catcher and 887 elsewhere.  If he can manage to stay healthy within the next three weeks he will have played more games away from catcher than he did as a catcher.  People like to throw Mickey Cochrane out there because his power isn't there, but bear in mind he caught almost 600 more games as a catcher and retired with a .320 batting average.  That is pretty significant.  He was also from a totally different era and lifetime, to the point where his numbers are irrelevant by today's standard.  YOu would have to be one looking to change (read lower) standards and I am not in that camp.  To me, the "he's a catcher" argument isn't going to work.  The numbers do not back up that claim.  Not when more than half of the games he played were at other positions.

 

As far as Molina is concerned, I could not care less about him, or what these sportswriter's or media outlets say about him.  They don't move me at all.  I don't think he is quite a HOFer, but what Molina has been his entire career is a CATCHER.  He can say that, Joe cannot (concussion or whatever the reason).  Joe will not be viewed solely as a catcher.  Bench, Carter, Piazza, Pudge, Berra, etc,.....those are CATCHERS as in they played catcher their ENTIRE CAREER.  Joe does not at this point and has not for years.   If the Baseball Writer's Association of America doesn't vote him in it is most certainly not a travesty and it certainly wouldn't be "silly".  A travesty (or "silly") would be LeVelle E Neal III not giving Pedro Martinez a vote in his first year of eligibility.

 

 

What is wrong with saying he did some great things for a period of time, but these last eight years will be a big reason why he won't make it?  In his seasons since that contract kicked in (coincidence or not) he had this for a slash line: .291-8-56.  Before that gets dismissed that because I don't mention any analytics, consider who is voting.  Then also consider there are a number of offensive metrics that make Joe look bad.   It is a double edged sword.  For starters, his ISO has been absolutely horrid for years.   He has set near the bottom in hitting extra base hits for years now.  Like 140th out of 150something qualifiers awful.  That is beside the point, but if you want to beat the analytics drum then EVERYTHING is in play (not just the ones where walks enhance the numbers). 

 

In the end, Mauer is a fringe guy, kind of like Don Mattingly. If Mauer doesn't get in, I will not be because some conspiracy is afoot, or some pernicious anti- Minnesota bias is being applied to him.  JOe is not getting in won't be because of the market he played in or that he has a bland personality.  It will be for what he did (and didn't do) on the baseball field.  One big strike against him besides his lack of longevity at catcher (which Molina has) is the lack of power.  If he had beefier home run and RBI totals then he would have a better chance, but he is a singles hitter.  If your calling card is your bat and you are going to be a singles hitter you darn well better hit the 3,000 milestone.  If not you just aren't making the HOF.

 

Maybe I am silly?  Or am I just being honest?

 

I agree with most of this but land just on the other side of the in/out line. One thing I totally agree with is that Mauer's HoF case is fringey, as evidenced by the huge amount of debate it generates. Miguel Cabrera for example doesn't generate debate like this because his case is rock solid.

 

That said, even without using advanced analytics I think Joe has a pretty good case. One point you clearly made is that Joe was/is not really a catcher as most of his games will not be at the catching position. I agree with you overall, but he definitely was primarily a catcher from 2004 through 2013. It is fair to compare his 2004-2013 stats as a catcher to other catchers, and I think the BBWAA voters are savvy enough to do that. Here are some things he did as a catcher (i.e. through 2013), not including any advanced stats:

• 3 batting titles
• 6 All-Star appearances
• 3 Gold Gloves
• 5 Silver Sluggers
• 1 MVP
• .323 batting average, 10 HR and 63 RBI per season (I know, the HR and RBI total aren't that impressive)

That's a pretty impressive resume. Not a slam dunk, but good enough to nudge him over the threshold in my opinion, especially if you let the advanced analytics in just a little and look at his OBP, OPS, and WAR over that period.

 

Now, of course 2014 and forward hurts his resume. And, of course the next few years will really determine a lot. If he can have another 3-4 years like 2017 then he'll be up over 2500 hits (and maybe another gold glove?) making him pretty much a shoo-in. If he retires after this year then it would be totally reasonable for him to not make it. I would put him in but I won't think it's crazy if he doesn't make it.

 

 

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

What is most likely to occur the rest of this year?

# of Joe Hall of Fame Threads

# of Joe Home runs

# of Joe first pitch swings

# of Joe 3-0 swings

# of Buxton CS

# of Lynn complete games (ducks)

[Platoon]

Thanks Carol.  This isn't actually important to me although I have my opinion on the matter.

 

I feel that if he was able to catch the whole time it would be different, but he has now spent a lot of time at first base.  So much so this disqualifies him from being grouped with HOF catchers who spent their whole careers playing catcher.  Saying he IS a catcher is not right if we are trying to maintain integrity (that is what I think at least).  He was a catcher for half his career.

 

The problem with some of the "accumulated" catching stats for players who caught for say ten years v Mauers 7 years is it does not address how much better he was than most catchers. Not just offensively either. In the 7 years he caught, he sits near the top on a very short list of exceptional catchers. And for that matter, 7 years isn't really peanuts when behind the plate.

[Number3]

"If he can have another 3-4 years like 2017 then he'll be up over 2500 hits (and maybe another gold glove?) making him pretty much a shoo-in."

 

Not only will he not have another 3-4 years, he will not have anything close this year. I predict .270 max, less than 5 home runs and, as usual, no ability to drive the baseball unless a fastball runs into the sweet spot so the pitcher has to hit the bat. His poor off season habits make a rebound impossible. Name any other team for which Mauer would start at 1b and hit in the top of the order. Basically splitting time with Morrison now as the only lead off DH in baseball.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

"If he can have another 3-4 years like 2017 then he'll be up over 2500 hits (and maybe another gold glove?) making him pretty much a shoo-in."

 

Not only will he not have another 3-4 years, he will not have anything close this year. I predict .270 max, less than 5 home runs and, as usual, no ability to drive the baseball unless a fastball runs into the sweet spot so the pitcher has to hit the bat. His poor off season habits make a rebound impossible. Name any other team for which Mauer would start at 1b and hit in the top of the order. Basically splitting time with Morrison now as the only lead off DH in baseball.

For a guy who never trains and is so out of shape, it's pretty weird how Mauer has an average exit velocity ~2mph faster than the MLB average (and IIRC, the gap was even larger last season).

 

The reason he doesn't hit for power is his launch angle - a direct result of his swing - not any lack of strength or conditioning.

 

His launch angle is 4.8 degrees while the MLB average is around 12.5 degrees.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 His poor off season habits make a rebound impossible. Name any other team for which Mauer would start at 1b and hit in the top of the order. Basically splitting time with Morrison now as the only lead off DH in baseball.

 

Do you have any evidence of bad offseason habits or are you just being Mr. Negative again? I have literally never heard this line and I thought we'd heard every way to rip joe.

 

Mauer is #7 in the AL in OBP. He would lead off for many teams he played with. It's not 1980 anymore, teams don't need to have a base stealing threat bat first.

[USAFChief]

 

For a guy who never trains and is so out of shape, it's pretty weird how Mauer has an average exit velocity ~2mph faster than the MLB average (and IIRC, the gap was even larger last season).

 

The reason he doesn't hit for power is his launch angle - a direct result of his swing - not any lack of strength or conditioning.

 

His launch angle is 4.8 degrees while the MLB average is around 12.5 degrees.

I'd say it's more his inability to pull the ball. It's very tough to hit for power as an opposite field hitter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd say it's more his inability to pull the ball. It's very tough to hit for power as an opposite field hitter.

Also that. A mix of the two, actually... When Mauer's launch angle is in the negative (aka. ground ball), he's a pull hitter.

[Doomtints]

 

His list includes Yadier Molina but not Mauer. I’ve seen this on other similar types of lists too. Here’s the issue...Yadier Molina is older than Mauer and, remarkably, has *less* bWAR for his entire career than Mauer has for only his peak-7 years as a catcher. Don’t let anyone try to convince you that Molina is more worthy. It’s just silly.

 

A New York based FanGraphs alum doesn't think about Joe Mauer? Shocking.

[Doomtints]

 

Name any other team for which Mauer would start at 1b and hit in the top of the order. 

 

You want players with high OBP batting at the top of the order.

 

The only teams with 1B with better OBP percentages are:  

Atlanta

San Fran

St. Louis

Cincinnati

Chicago (AL)

Boston

 

Mauer would be batting near the top of the order for most teams if you are looking at first basemen. If you include all positions, Mauer would still be hitting at the top of the order for over half of the league.

 

Now, if what you meant to say was, Mauer isn't hitting for power like the typical first baseman, so he should not be batting cleanup or in the middle of the order, sure. Good thing he isn't!

[KGB]

For a guy who never trains and is so out of shape, it's pretty weird how Mauer has an average exit velocity ~2mph faster than the MLB average (and IIRC, the gap was even larger last season).

 

The reason he doesn't hit for power is his launch angle - a direct result of his swing - not any lack of strength or conditioning.

 

His launch angle is 4.8 degrees while the MLB average is around 12.5 degrees.

How does that compare to our other physical wonder - Sano