Time to shuffle the deck

[howeda7]

This could be a very bad week. I'd like to see them shuffle the roster/batting order and bullpen.

 

Release Grossman. DFA Kinley and Rogers. Call up Curtiss and Duffey. Sign an OFer (Melkey Cabrera?) or call up Granite.

 

RH batting order

 

Buxton

Mauer

Rosario

Dozier

Kepler

Sano

LoMo

Escobar

Castro

 

 

Bullpen:

Pressly and Reed closer/8th depending on situation.

Rodney

Duke as Loogy only

Hildy

Duffy

Curtiss

 

Give Hughes a couple more starts until hopefully Santana is back.

[Danchat]

DFA Rogers? Really? If we give up on guys this fast, we're not going to have anyone decent by the time the season ends. If you're going to sign Cabrera, fine, but he'd need time to get his bat into shape. We've seen plenty of examples of thrusting batters into roles mid-season and they usually don't hit very well right off the bat (pun intended). So because of this, I wouldn't DFA Grossman yet.

 

If the bullpen is disappointing you, Duffey isn't going to improve the situation. He was not part of the solution last year, and it's more likely he's going to be a part of it this year. I also think Curtiss needs more time at AAA before he's ready.

[yarnivek1972]

Since 2016 (when Rogers came in to the league) Rogers has a lower OPS vs LHB than Duke. Rogers career mark is .556. Duke over the last two plus seasons has posted over .600 vs LHB. And Rogers is 8 years younger.

[Mr. Brooks]

Molitor has made it very clear he won't use a lefty as a LOOGY only.

 

And if you could convince him that he should, you'd be much better off using Rogers (.556 OPS vs. LH) in that role, and cutting Duke (.704 OPS vs. LH).

 

Also, Rogers has options remaining, so they aren't going to DFA him.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, lost me at "DFA Rogers"

[launchingthrees]

Yeah. Rogers has 125 innings with a 3.5 era/3.7 fip. DFAing him would be odd... to put it mildly.

[yarnivek1972]

Also, Granite is injured. So, calling him up wouldn’t accomplish much.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I like the sentiment but also disagree with a couple of the suggestions

 

Paulie's thinking does get stuck in some ruts. I'd try batting Esco in the middle of the order. Sano owns the higher OPS but the strikeouts are wearing me down. Also, this team cannot carry both Kinley and Hughes. The front office gets this, right?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This could be a very bad week. I'd like to see them shuffle the roster/batting order and bullpen.

 

Release Grossman. DFA Kinley and Rogers. Call up Curtiss and Duffey. Sign an OFer (Melkey Cabrera?) or call up Granite.

 

RH batting order

 

Buxton

Mauer

Rosario

Dozier

Kepler

Sano

LoMo

Escobar

Castro

 

 

Bullpen:

Pressly and Reed closer/8th depending on situation.

Rodney

Duke as Loogy only

Hildy

Duffy

Curtiss

 

Give Hughes a couple more starts until hopefully Santana is back.

i believe Rogers has an option yet and has value. I’d exercise his option.

[Rosterman]

I think Reed is also injured.

 

Yes, you can shuffle some bodies in and out, if you like. Enns (not doing well) does need another look at some point. You could always grab Slegers or Mejia as bullpen strength, too. Hildenberger is an asset but should go and work somethings out in the minors.

 

If the Twins get Bard back, that could be a plus, although he's not on the 40-man. 

 

Jorge is injured. Romero needs to stay in reserve for pitching on a double-header day, or if the Twins do give up on, say, Gibson at some point.

 

Still early.

 

I still think something has to be said for letting pitchers start innings that they shouldn't, overall bullpen usage, and something has to jumpstart the offense. Line-up construction is out of whack!

 

 

[howeda7]

 

DFA Rogers? Really? If we give up on guys this fast, we're not going to have anyone decent by the time the season ends. If you're going to sign Cabrera, fine, but he'd need time to get his bat into shape. We've seen plenty of examples of thrusting batters into roles mid-season and they usually don't hit very well right off the bat (pun intended). So because of this, I wouldn't DFA Grossman yet.

 

If the bullpen is disappointing you, Duffey isn't going to improve the situation. He was not part of the solution last year, and it's more likely he's going to be a part of it this year. I also think Curtiss needs more time at AAA before he's ready.

Who's giving up on him? He has options. He needs some time in the minors. He gives up 2-3 base-runners in every outing. The only reason his ERA wasn't 7 the second half last year like it is now is how often Hildy and others bailed him out. He's been terrible for 2/3 of a season now. 

[howeda7]

 

Yeah, lost me at "DFA Rogers"

OK. My bad. I simply mean send him to AAA. 

[USAFChief]

On the other hand, I agree LaMarre/Grossman as spare parts needs improvement, stat.

 

The lineup started the season as pretty adequate on paper, but without reasonable backups.  (And without much room for more than 1 guy, 2 at most, to be "scuffling" at any given time.")

 

 

[lukeduke1980]

I predict by the end of the series the conversation will not be about Giancarlo slumping

[nicksaviking]

I'd like to think the front office won't wait until a more traditional date in July to start calling Miami, Cincinnati, Baltimore, KC and the Southsiders about a right handed bench/OF bat and high strikeout BP arms.

 

There's no rule that says you can't make a trade in April. And there's no rule that says you can't overpay now for something seeing as it will pay dividends prior to August 1st.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd like to think the front office won't wait until a more traditional date in July to start calling Miami, Cincinnati, Baltimore, KC and the Southsiders about a right handed bench/OF bat and high strikeout BP arms.

 

There's no rule that says you can't make a trade in April. And there's no rule that says you can't overpay now for something seeing as it will pay dividends prior to August 1st.

Agreed, but it never really happens.

 

JT Realmoto is my first choice.... Not sure I spelled that correctly....

[yarnivek1972]

I'd like to think the front office won't wait until a more traditional date in July to start calling Miami, Cincinnati, Baltimore, KC and the Southsiders about a right handed bench/OF bat and high strikeout BP arms.

 

There's no rule that says you can't make a trade in April. And there's no rule that says you can't overpay now for something seeing as it will pay dividends prior to August 1st.

That would be fine if the Twins only needed one piece.

 

The problem is there are a lot of pieces struggling right now. Other than Berrios, no starter is doing that great. Other than Reed and Pressly, the pen is pretty bad.

 

The lineup has been inconsistent, which is not unexpected given that the core is still relatively inexperienced.

 

The Twins can’t acquire 2 starters, 3 relievers, and at least one bat during the season. They lack the assets.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure why we are so quick to discard Grossman.  He's been a pretty good player for us the last two years, he's just off to an awful start.

 

I'd like us to better use our 25 man roster though, but that appears to be something even analytics people fail to grasp.  We've been wasting 2-3 roster spots every year as long as I've been a Twins fan.  (And it's not just the Twins)

[Number3]

More and more obvious that Polanco's suspension really hurt because Twins' offense has no mainstays. It is totally dependent on who is hot for any given game and Polanco filled that role many times. That coupled with Buxton's headaches took a lot away. Still amazing how Mauer can walk 3 times in a game and no runs or rbi's but great for that obp. Way to go Joe...you need to provide some spark. If they can survive the Yankee series they better put some Ws on the board against Cincy who has already fired the manager (hint hint).

All in all getting out of April around the .500 mark isn't awful, just doesn't really say anything either plus they have those 4 make up games so who knows how April will turn out?

So the question remains...who are these Minnesota Twins? Verdict still out.

[Mike Sixel]

That would be fine if the Twins only needed one piece.

 

The problem is there are a lot of pieces struggling right now. Other than Berrios, no starter is doing that great. Other than Reed and Pressly, the pen is pretty bad.

 

The lineup has been inconsistent, which is not unexpected given that the core is still relatively inexperienced.

 

The Twins can’t acquire 2 starters, 3 relievers, and at least one bat during the season. They lack the assets.

Why do they have fix everything? How about one thing? Or two?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure why we are so quick to discard Grossman. He's been a pretty good player for us the last two years, he's just off to an awful start.

 

I'd like us to better use our 25 man roster though, but that appears to be something even analytics people fail to grasp. We've been wasting 2-3 roster spots every year as long as I've been a Twins fan. (And it's not just the Twins)

Maybe Falvine really don't think this is a playoff team, and are willing to test out these RPs? But I agree, it's odd.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure why we are so quick to discard Grossman.  He's been a pretty good player for us the last two years, he's just off to an awful start.

Was he a "pretty good player" in 2017? I can see the argument for 2016 -- his bat was a definite plus that year, and maybe the defensive metrics were off (or he should be a DH more often) -- but in 2017, that wasn't the case. He was just a league average bat with negative defensive/positional value. 0.8 bWAR and 0.5 fWAR, but in 456 PA, that's only marginally better than replacement level. Solidly below average.

 

FWIW, with Grossman's $2 mil salary, he'd probably clear waivers and could be outrighted to AAA (he doesn't have enough service time to refuse without forfeiting his salary), so we wouldn't necessarily be discarding him. We could swap him back in later, if we so desired.

 

Not sure if there's a better use for the roster spot at the moment, although once Buxton is healthy, and if we're willing to use Garver to pinch-hit for Castro, Grossman's role isn't that important either. An extra pitcher could be more valuable. Or maybe even getting a look at Jake Cave?

[nicksaviking]

 

That would be fine if the Twins only needed one piece.

The problem is there are a lot of pieces struggling right now. Other than Berrios, no starter is doing that great. Other than Reed and Pressly, the pen is pretty bad.

The lineup has been inconsistent, which is not unexpected given that the core is still relatively inexperienced.

The Twins can’t acquire 2 starters, 3 relievers, and at least one bat during the season. They lack the assets.

 

Top end starting pitching is always a unique beast, but the Twins have plenty of assets if they wanted a righ-handed OF bat or a reliever.

 

And if they're willing to take on salary, they might not even have to give up much in the way of assets. Baltimore surely would at least listen if the Twins started talking about taking on some or all of Adam Jones' or Darren O'Day's salary. *

 

*Two players used for the purpose of examples only.

[jkcarew]

Just need to survive until the schedule softens and reinforcements (Polanco, Santana) arrive.  There are a number of ways the twins can survive until then...smarter roster/bullpen, Sano/Buxton/Morrison playing and hitting better, trade for right-handed outfielder (or LaMarre continuing to surprise), Granite turning back into 2017 Granite.  Not all of these need to happen...but some of them will have to.

[Tomj14]

 

More and more obvious that Polanco's suspension really hurt because Twins' offense has no mainstays. It is totally dependent on who is hot for any given game and Polanco filled that role many times. That coupled with Buxton's headaches took a lot away. Still amazing how Mauer can walk 3 times in a game and no runs or rbi's but great for that obp. Way to go Joe...you need to provide some spark. If they can survive the Yankee series they better put some Ws on the board against Cincy who has already fired the manager (hint hint).

All in all getting out of April around the .500 mark isn't awful, just doesn't really say anything either plus they have those 4 make up games so who knows how April will turn out?

So the question remains...who are these Minnesota Twins? Verdict still out.

The problem with the Twins offense is K rate

Escobar 51 14 27.45%
Adrianza 20 6 30.00%
Rosario 61 12 19.67%
Sano 61 30 49.18%
Buxton 41 11 26.83%
Castro 42 17 40.48%
Garver 15 6 40.00%
Grossman 33 14 42.42%
Morrison 52 14 26.92%
Dozier 71 12 16.90%
Mauer 54 8 14.81%

 

Those numbers are terrible.  They only have 4 guys with an SLG % over .475, and 4 guys with an OBP over .316.

 

Sano has a higher K rate then SLG.

 

So far 5 Relief pitchers have pitched in half the games, they have to get more innings our of their starters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And if they're willing to take on salary, they might not even have to give up much in the way of assets. Baltimore surely would at least listen if the Twins started talking about taking on some or all of Adam Jones' or Darren O'Day's salary. *

 

*Two players used for the purpose of examples only.

I don't know. Using the Orioles as an example, they have a lot invested in 2018 already -- $143 mil payroll. The remaining obligations to Jones and O'Day are barely a drop in that bucket, and both are still solid contributors on a team with some stars (Machado, Bundy) and some hope (Britton, Gausman/Cobb, maybe a prospect like Hunter Harvey). What do they really get out of dumping them early?

 

I think fans often overrate the willingness of teams to seek modest salary relief, especially early in a season. Even the fire-sale Marlins this winter were generally moving much larger salaries, and/or getting back some decent prospects. Teams don't just give away guys like Jones or O'Day in April. Probably the only guys available at this point, for little in return, are lost causes like Hughes, or fringe roster guys like Trayce Thompson.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know. Using the Orioles as an example, they have a lot invested in 2018 already -- $143 mil payroll. The remaining obligations to Jones and O'Day are barely a drop in that bucket, and both are still solid contributors on a team with some stars (Machado, Bundy) and some hope (Britton, Gausman/Cobb, maybe a prospect like Hunter Harvey). What do they really get out of dumping them early?

 

I think fans often overrate the willingness of teams to seek modest salary relief, especially early in a season. Even the fire-sale Marlins this winter were generally moving much larger salaries, and/or getting back some decent prospects. Teams don't just give away guys like Jones or O'Day in April. Probably the only guys available at this point, for little in return, are lost causes like Hughes, or fringe roster guys like Trayce Thompson.

 

The Orioles, to win 88 games, would need to play at a pace of....79-61 the rest of the way.

 

That is a 92 game pace....

 

that is not going to happen. 

 

That's the incentive. They get more return by trading early, because those players are playing more games for their new teams.

 

Why is "little in return" part of the requirements to add talent?

 

But yes, teams don't trade in April.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why is "little in return" part of the requirements to add talent?

The post I was responding to said (of the Twins) that "if they're willing to take on salary, they might not even have to give up much in the way of assets."

[Mike Sixel]

 

The post I was responding to said (of the Twins) that "if they're willing to take on salary, they might not even have to give up much in the way of assets."

 

Ah. got it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Was he a "pretty good player" in 2017? I can see the argument for 2016 -- his bat was a definite plus that year, and maybe the defensive metrics were off (or he should be a DH more often) -- but in 2017, that wasn't the case. He was just a league average bat with negative defensive/positional value. 0.8 bWAR and 0.5 fWAR, but in 456 PA, that's only marginally better than replacement level. Solidly below average.

 

FWIW, with Grossman's $2 mil salary, he'd probably clear waivers and could be outrighted to AAA (he doesn't have enough service time to refuse without forfeiting his salary), so we wouldn't necessarily be discarding him. We could swap him back in later, if we so desired.

 

Not sure if there's a better use for the roster spot at the moment, although once Buxton is healthy, and if we're willing to use Garver to pinch-hit for Castro, Grossman's role isn't that important either. An extra pitcher could be more valuable. Or maybe even getting a look at Jake Cave?

Thank you.

Grossman is in his 3rd season with the Twins, and thus far has accumulated a whopping 0.6 total bWAR.

He's not awful enough that I'm going to insist on replacing him.

But he's certainly not valuable enough that they shouldn't be looking to upgrade if they can.

He's ever so slightly above replacement level.

He can take a walk, and don't get me wrong, that's a useful skill. But, it's the only thing he provides.

I have zero problem with any argument for finding an upgrade over him.