Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[jorgenswest]

Santana and May will be ready early in the season. The young pitchers will be in AAA. They will be ready soon.

 

With the addition of Odorizzi, the Twins have depth in the rotation. They all need to get off to a solid start because Santana and May will be taking or pushing for a spot upon return. If Duffey doesn’t make the rotation out of camp, I would have him stretched out in AAA and ready to jump into the major league rotation also.

 

There are a lot of question marks with Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia and Sanchez but they will need to perform with Santana, May, Duffey, Romero and Gonsalves in the wings. All of this and there is a possibility Hughes is healthy and his velocity has returned.

 

It’s on the Twins staff now to get the most out the talents of their starters.

[bcs4]

 

The Cubs gave Darvish his 6th year and opt out, in a year in which the other 3 big spenders were sitting it out to reset their luxury tax.
How is that comparable to trading an organizational fringe top 20 prospect?
If other teams think Odorizzi is really valuable, there aren't really any constraints on beating that offer.

 

Just saying that every transaction could be degraded for the same reason that you gave. Why didn't some other team give more for Darvish? If some other team beat their offer, wouldn't they question his value simply because no other team beat their offer?

Edited February 18, 2018 by bcs4

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I don’t pay attention to prospects as much, could someone inform me which prospect at SP is most “pro ready” and could see some inning pitched this year? Gonsalves? Tia

[Mr. Brooks]

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder!

And I suppose that if Palacios is in fact exactly what everyone thinks he is (roughly 20th org prospect), and the Rays settled on him because nobody was really that interested in Odorizzi, they'd tell their fans what? Yeah we traded for this prospect that is just, meh?

Of course not, they're going to pump up how much they love him to their ticket buyers, regardless.

[Mr. Brooks]

That doesn't explain the BA or WHIP. My big concern with Odorizzi is innings. I know he was on the DL with a back strain, but I don't think it was very long. I wonder why he didn't have more innings?

Actually, his insanely lucky babip would explain WHIP and opposing batting average.

[Mr. Brooks]

Just saying that every transaction could be degraded for the same reason that you gave. Why didn't some other team give more for Darvish? If some other team beat their offer, wouldn't they question his value simply because no other team beat their offer?

Because there are significant limitations preventing teams who would like to have Darvish, from actually topping the Cubs offer.

 

Only so many teams are actually competitive enough that it makes sense to spend that kind of money on a 31 year old pitcher.

Of those teams, only so many have an owner who would sign off on a $130+ million dollar contract for a pitcher.

And of those few remaining teams, 3 of them are sitting out to reset their luxury tax.

 

What limitations apply to trading for Odorizzi? None. Any team that really wants him isn't sweating a 10-20 organisational prospect or two.

By far the most likely reason, is that not many teams find him as a very attractive option.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don’t pay attention to prospects as much, could someone inform me which prospect at SP is most “pro ready” and could see some inning pitched this year? Gonsalves? Tia

Slegers is probably the most mlb ready, though I don't really consider him a "prospect".

Then probably Jorge, then Gonsalves, then some combo of Enns/Littel/Romero.

[bluechipper]

 

Odorizzi actually has a higher FIP and xFIP the last two years than Gibson. So Odorizzi also has big problems the last 2 years.

I didn't selectively choose anything. I gave career metrics that show the results of things the pitcher controls. A pitcher can only control so much of what goes into ERA and WHIP.

Over the last 2 years, Gibson has an ERA over 5. Odorizzi's is under 4. At some point, actual results matter.

[Mr. Brooks]

Over the last 2 years, Gibson has an ERA over 5. Odorizzi's is under 4. At some point, actual results matter.

FIP and xFIP are actual results. Just a different way of measuring them.

[bcs4]

 

Actually, his insanely lucky babip would explain WHIP and opposing batting average.

 

BAPIP assumes that every struck ball is equally fieldable. I don't think there is a good basis for that in BAPIP.

[Vanimal46]

Is it possible to absolutely love a trade while at the same being underwhelmed by the level of improvement it brings your team?

 

If so... that might be where I am.

It looks that way on the surface... Though I'm intrigued to find out what ideas Falvey has to tweak his game.

[laloesch]

Its not the level of arm we need, but its great value.

I disagree i think the Twins VERY MUCH needed a middle of the rotation arm after Santana went down. I know everyone wants an ace including me but this is a good acquisition. I don't want all of the weight on Berrio's shoulders right away and Gibson is far too erractic to count on for an entire season yet. Yes, this is a good acquisition in my eyes.

[Twinfan & Dad]

And I suppose that if Palacios is in fact exactly what everyone thinks he is (roughly 20th org prospect), and the Rays settled on him because nobody was really that interested in Odorizzi, they'd tell their fans what? Yeah we traded for this prospect that is just, meh?

Of course not, they're going to pump up how much they love him to their ticket buyers, regardless.

Or just maybe in this case you have a pitcher that is top 3 in salary on a team that also designated another top 3 salary the same day. Salary dump! Odorizzi trended down last year but finished strong and Tampa believes they can replace him with a young cheaper arm since the team is going nowhere. I dont have Tampa GM on speed dial so don't know what other offers they had. From the Twins perspective, only a glass half empty view can look at this trade and not feel optomistic. This trade buys us time for the young guys and improves our rotation vs. 2017.

[Brock Beauchamp]

FIP and xFIP are actual results. Just a different way of measuring them.

Yes and no. The input is results but they use those results to estimate an entirely different number.

[bcs4]

 

Because there are significant limitations preventing teams who would like to have Darvish, from actually topping the Cubs offer.

Only so many teams are actually competitive enough that it makes sense to spend that kind of money on a 31 year old pitcher.
Of those teams, only so many have an owner who would sign off on a $130+ million dollar contract for a pitcher.
And of those few remaining teams, 3 of them are sitting out to reset their luxury tax.

What limitations apply to trading for Odorizzi? None. Any team that really wants him isn't sweating a 10-20 organisational prospect or two.
By far the most likely reason, is that not many teams find him as a very attractive option.

 

There are many teams that could have paid more. I think you were even saying that the Twins could have gone higher.

[notoriousgod71]

Why do people keep mentioning May?

 

He's coming off an injury, he gives up a ton of hits, throws a lot of pitches, hasn't started in three years.

 

What are we hoping for out of him? 5 IP 3 ER seems to be about the best case scenario.

 

Our rotation is obviously still terrible but I would be in no rush to see May as a starter.

[Mr. Brooks]

BAPIP assumes that every struck ball is equally fieldable. I don't think there is a good basis for that in BAPIP.

Not necessarily. I think everyone would agree that different hitters are going to be able to sustain a higher babip, due to how hard they hit the ball, and hitting more line drives.

Conversely, some pitchers should be able to sustain a lower babip, if they have movement or deception that gives up less hard contact, and/or less line drives.

 

The key is comparing each player to themselves. (for the most part, some outliers are not sustainable by anyone. ) When a pitcher suddenly sees a 50 point drop in babip one year, compared to his career babip, it's almost certainly luck based.

And,.227 isn't sustainable by any pitcher. Greg Maddux had a career babip of .281.

Pedro Martinez, .279.

Tell me a pitcher that you think limited hard contact the best, and I'll bet his career babip is in that same range.

[bluechipper]

 

Why do people keep mentioning May?

 

He's coming off an injury, he gives up a ton of hits, throws a lot of pitches, hasn't started in three years.

 

What are we hoping for out of him? 5 IP 3 ER seems to be about the best case scenario.

 

Our rotation is obviously still terrible but I would be in no rush to see May as a starter.

I think some people view May's FIP as the only stat that matters, even though his actual results haven't matched that.

 

I still like the potential in May, and I hope he can be an option deeper into the season.

[TheLeviathan]

I disagree i think the Twins VERY MUCH needed a middle of the rotation arm after Santana went down. I know everyone wants an ace including me but this is a good acquisition. I don't want all of the weight on Berrio's shoulders right away and Gibson is far too erractic to count on for an entire season yet. Yes, this is a good acquisition in my eyes.

Absolutely we needed this, but without the other level of arm the rotation is still a major weakness.

 

I'm not even asking for an ace, just a more natural 2/3. This deal is great, but more is still needed.

Edited February 18, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Mr. Brooks]

Or just maybe in this case you have a pitcher that is top 3 in salary on a team that also designated another top 3 salary the same day. Salary dump! Odorizzi trended down last year but finished strong and Tampa believes they can replace him with a young cheaper arm since the team is going nowhere. I dont have Tampa GM on speed dial so don't know what other offers they had. From the Twins perspective, only a glass half empty view can look at this trade and not feel optomistic. This trade buys us time for the young guys and improves our rotation vs. 2017.

Even in the case of a "salary dump", you still try to get the best prospect you can.

Is it more likely that other teams were offering more, but the Rays said, "nah, it's just a salary dump, and the Twins called first, so..."? Or that the Twins offer was the best?

You are correct we don't know what was offered, in which case we should probably consider the more likely of the two.

[Mr. Brooks]

There are many teams that could have paid more. I think you were even saying that the Twins could have gone higher.

If you don't think there are certain limitations to offering $130+ million dollars to a 31 year old pitcher, that don't apply to trading a borderline top 20 organizational prospect, then we should probably just agree to disagree.

 

I have no idea if the Twins could have offered more for Darvish. I have no doubt that Pohlad has a say in a contract that big, and I have no idea how high he's willing to go.

I doubt Pohlad cares much if they want to trade Jermaine Palacios.

[Bob Sacamento]

Tampa Bay Times had this to say about the trade, found that they value Palacios higher than most:

 

 

It wasn’t at all surprising that the Rays dealt Odorizzi, who had been in trade rumors for months, but it was unexpected that they only received a borderline top 30 Twins prospect (Single-A shortstop Jermaine Palacios) in return. General manager Erik Neander addressed that the Rays “probably have him valued quite a bit higher than some of the public publications.”

[Mr. Brooks]

Why do people keep mentioning May?

 

He's coming off an injury, he gives up a ton of hits, throws a lot of pitches, hasn't started in three years.

 

What are we hoping for out of him? 5 IP 3 ER seems to be about the best case scenario.

 

Our rotation is obviously still terrible but I would be in no rush to see May as a starter.

Mentioning May as being in the mix isn't really saying much.

Nearly all of the options for the rotation are flawed in some way.

Are you seeing people inking him into the rotation?

[laloesch]

Absolutely we needed this, but without the other level of arm the rotation is still a major weakness.

I'm not even asking for an ace, just a more natural 2/3. This deal is great, but more is still needed.

I agree the missing piece is an ace. Acquiring Odorizzi is a nice step, but I still hope they get Archer at some point. I really think the Twins have the pieces to get such a deal done and they can also offer to take on Span's contract which is even more incentive to the Rays. This could still happen. I guess the question is how motivated are the Rays to dropping payroll?

[ashbury]

Tampa Bay Times had this to say about the trade, found that they value Palacios higher than most:

What else would you expect a team to say after a trade, though?

[Oxtung]

 

I don’t pay attention to prospects as much, could someone inform me which prospect at SP is most “pro ready” and could see some inning pitched this year? Gonsalves? Tia

 

Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers are the two most ready to start the year. They each got a cup of coffee last year but should start in AAA again this year. They are mostly seen as back of the rotation "innings eaters".

 

Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves should also start the year at AAA but are seen as having much higher ceilings. Gonsalves has always had great results but his scouting reports aren't stellar. Romero has always had fantastic scouting reports and results but has been hurt a bunch. It will be interesting to see who gets called up 1st amongst these two. That should give us some insight into the Twins outlooks for them.

[Oxtung]

 

BAPIP assumes that every struck ball is equally fieldable. I don't think there is a good basis for that in BAPIP.

What? BABIP doesn't assume anything, it simply measures how many batted balls dropped in for hits. There is no math involved really; no manipulation of the data.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think some people view May's FIP as the only stat that matters, even though his actual results haven't matched that.

 

I still like the potential in May, and I hope he can be an option deeper into the season.

I don't believe anyone thinks that FIP is the only stat that matters.

Some do believe that it does a better job than ERA at encapsulating the things a pitcher has more direct control over, though. Especially in smaller sample sizes, like we are dealing with with Trevor May, he only has 200 career innings.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers are the two most ready to start the year. They each got a cup of coffee last year but should start in AAA again this year. They are mostly seen as back of the rotation "innings eaters".

 

Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves should also start the year at AAA but are seen as having much higher ceilings. Gonsalves has always had great results but his scouting reports aren't stellar. Romero has always had fantastic scouting reports and results but has been hurt a bunch. It will be interesting to see who gets called up 1st amongst these two. That should give us some insight into the Twins outlooks for them.

I remember Jorge playing. Wasn’t too bad, what kind of stuff does Slegers possess?

[Monkeypaws]

One simple metric that I've found a reliable indicator of how well some is pitching over the years:

 

Innings Pitched vs. Hits allowed. 

 

in 2017:

 

Gibson gave up 182 hits in 158 innings.

 

Santana gave up 177 hits in 211 innings.

 

Odorizzi gave up 117 hits in 143 innings. 

 

More like Santana or Berrios than Gibson. He must have some decent stuff.