Twins make offer for Chris Archer

[Danchat]

Hmmmm... yeah, I guess this is path they have to take next. Archer is going to be really expensive, but if the Twins are serious about competing, they're gonna have to pony up. 

 

So, roughly, something like:

Archer and Span for Kepler, Gordon, Romero, and Baddoo? I'm just throwing names out there. 

 

Then the Twins sign Jaime Garcia to a one year deal and they're probably at $130M+... probably not enough to sign Gomez. Then you start Span/Grossman and hope the ball doesn't get hit to RF?

 

That's a tough situation IMO. It might be worth it to salvage the starting rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

It seems odd this comes out now.. ... Just a weird coincidence.

[howeda7]

 

If they deal Kepler and don't sign a good OF,I will be confused. Getting Archer and not really replacing Kepler doesn't move the needle.

We can play Grossman in RF and DH Vargas/Napoli. Ugh. 

[howeda7]

Is he under control through 20 or 21? 

[DaveW]

I’d be shocked if Kepler is the ‘centerpiece’

 

Quite confident they would have to include a couple prospects as well that we would hate to lose.

 

Fact is if Archer is truly being shopped aggressively there will be about 15 teams competing with us, many of which will have more org depth to outbid us.

 

Basically this being ‘leaked’ today is an obvious move by the Twins FO and prob indicates the Twins are more or less done in the market for any “real big moves”

 

If the deal wasn’t good two weeks ago, doubt it’s gonna get the job today, also the rays have zero reason to need to trade him now anyways.

 

Should have signed Yu and we could have kept Kepler and a bunch of prospects to boot!

[howeda7]

Lol. The Twins aren't "leaking" this to save face. 90% of their ticket buyers aren't following the off-season intently enough to notice and the other 10% are on sites like this $%^ing about it regardless. 

[Danchat]

 

I’d be shocked if Kepler is the ‘centerpiece’

Quite confident they would have to include a couple prospects as well that we would hate to lose.

Fact is if Archer is truly being shopped aggressively there will be about 15 teams competing with us, many of which will have more org depth to outbid us.

Basically this being ‘leaked’ today is an obvious move by the Twins FO and prob indicates the Twins are more or less done in the market for any “real big moves”

If the deal wasn’t good two weeks ago, doubt it’s gonna get the job today, also the rays have zero reason to need to trade him now anyways.

Should have signed Yu and we could have kept Kepler and a bunch of prospects to boot!

Or, you know, maybe it means the Twins are upping their efforts to trade for Archer because they didn't get Darvish. I highly doubt the Twins are just pretending to have interest in the best pitchers just to get fans' hopes up... just to let them down later. That makes no sense to me.

[DaveW]

Or, you know, maybe it means the Twins are upping their efforts to trade for Archer because they didn't get Darvish. I highly doubt the Twins are just pretending to have interest in the best pitchers just to get fans' hopes up... just to let them down later. That makes no sense to me.

Well I hope they put more effort into getting Archer then they did for Darvish if that’s the case!

[Tom Froemming]

I really hate to do this, but ..

 

Player A: .272/.329/.427, .329 wOBA, 102 wRC+
Player B: .243/.312/.425, .315 wOBA, 92 wRC+

Both had 1.2 fWAR, tied for 59th among 83 outfielders with at least 400 PAs.

 

A is Denard Span
B is Max Kepler

 

Obviously two guys moving in opposite directions, but still. Also, among the 197 hitters with at least 200 PAs in the second half, Kepler ranked 181st in OPS (.668). I still believe the best is yet to come from Max, but it's pretty difficult for me to imagine that he could be the centerpiece of a trade that nets four affordable years of Archer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Let me rephrase.  We'd be getting a better pitcher.  But yeah, what it would cost in prospects probably doesn't make it the better than just spending the money.

The Twins would be getting a better pitcher for four years but I'm not sure they'd be getting the better pitcher right now.

 

I'm not bashing Archer, just saying that Darvish is kinda underrated by some folks here. He's also going on 32 and will decline so getting Archer improves the team for longer in all likelihood.

[twinsfanstreif]

I would do:

Max Kepler

Fernando Romero

Nick Gordon

Felix Jorge

That would be more than fair.

That's too much for me, I honestly think that proposal minus Romero is fair value. That's one controllable and talented MLB ready player who could be a star, one top 50 prospect by most publications, and another MLB ready back of the rotation type of player. That is a fair haul for a guy who had a 4 ERA last year

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I really hate to do this, but ..

 

Player A: .272/.329/.427, .329 wOBA, 102 wRC+
Player B: .243/.312/.425, .315 wOBA, 92 wRC+

Both had 1.2 fWAR, tied for 59th among 83 outfielders with at least 400 PAs.

 

A is Denard Span
B is Max Kepler

 

Obviously two guys moving in opposite directions, but still. Also, among the 197 hitters with at least 200 PAs in the second half, Kepler ranked 181st in OPS (.668). I still believe the best is yet to come from Max, but it's pretty difficult for me to imagine that he could be the centerpiece of a trade that nets four affordable years of Archer.

If I was Falvey, I'd be lobbying hard to take on Span to decrease the prospect haul required to get Archer.

 

Given Tampa's apparent (perpetual) payroll woes, that might get the deal done.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If they could pull this off, sign another starter, and add an OFer I'll put my pitchfork in the hay mow.

Seriously, man, I know you're old but you're not going to die tomorrow. Asking for a team to add two good starting pitchers, revamp an entire bullpen, and add a RH bat in the same offseason is like asking for Trump to delete the Twitter app.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If they deal Kepler and don't sign a good OF,I will be confused. Getting Archer and not really replacing Kepler doesn't move the needle.

Yeah, it does. Kepler wasn't very good last season. The rest of the offense was quite good and also very young. Many of them posted good half seasons, which lends some weight to them posting good full seasons in 2018.

 

I love Kepler but if he brings back Archer, I won't even hold up a lighter for him, much less a candlelight vigil. Max had a 1.2 fWAR and a 2.1 rWAR last season. That's easily replaceable.

[The Wise One]

 

I’d be shocked if Kepler is the ‘centerpiece’

Quite confident they would have to include a couple prospects as well that we would hate to lose.

Fact is if Archer is truly being shopped aggressively there will be about 15 teams competing with us, many of which will have more org depth to outbid us.

Basically this being ‘leaked’ today is an obvious move by the Twins FO and prob indicates the Twins are more or less done in the market for any “real big moves”

If the deal wasn’t good two weeks ago, doubt it’s gonna get the job today, also the rays have zero reason to need to trade him now anyways.

Should have signed Yu and we could have kept Kepler and a bunch of prospects to boot!

Other than someone drafted last year, what prospect would anyone hate to lose?

[USAFChief]

Seriously, man, I know you're old but you're not going to die tomorrow. Asking for a team to add two good starting pitchers, revamp an entire bullpen, and add a RH bat in the same offseason is like asking for Trump to delete the Twitter app.

A). I might, and

 

2). This is satire, right?

[twinssporto]

 

If they could pull this off, sign another starter, and add an OFer I'll put my pitchfork in the hay mow.

I'm starting to sharpen mine...

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah, it does. Kepler wasn't very good last season. The rest of the offense was quite good and also very young. Many of them posted good half seasons, which lends some weight to them posting good full seasons in 2018.

 

I love Kepler but if he brings back Archer, I won't even hold up a lighter for him, much less a candlelight vigil. Max had a 1.2 fWAR and a 2.1 rWAR last season. That's easily replaceable.

 

Kepler was a league average player last year at the plate with above average defense. I'm not sure I'd call him "not very good". He was definitely one of the weaker links on offense last year. I can see why TB would be interested, and I'd have no problems trading him. But I'm just as down on bashing him as I am on those saying don't trade him at any cost.

 

On to the topic, I'd have rather spent cash for Darvish, but I do like that they are clearly targeting top of the rotation guys. It does concern me though if they are unable to pull a deal... will they get Lynn/Cobb? I don't think the market will wait out on an Archer trade... they may have to put some cash into one of those guys quickly. Players report on Tuesday...

 

As for an offer:

 

I'd love to go Archer/Span for Kepler, Jorge, and Gordon. I'm guessing that's light. Might happen if Romero was added. Not sure I want to give up on Romero, but I could live with it. His innings limit will likely pose issues this year and quite possibly next.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's too much for me, I honestly think that proposal minus Romero is fair value. That's one controllable and talented MLB ready player who could be a star, one top 50 prospect by most publications, and another MLB ready back of the rotation type of player. That is a fair haul for a guy who had a 4 ERA last year

If you are going to value him like a "4 ERA guy" then Tampa isn't going to trade him.

 

FWIW, I am not sure of Kepler's star potential. He was never really an elite prospect, and he has been a thoroughly average corner OF in MLB so far, with a serious platoon weakness.

 

Kepler is controlled for only 1 more year than Archer, and he is eligible for arbitration next winter -- his salary could be equal to Archer's in just 2-3 years (depending on if and how much he improves, of course).

[Doctor Wu]

I'd give up Kepler and Gordon for Archer in a heartbeat .But I would really not want the Twins to add one of their better minor league pitching prospects to such a deal. If you forced to do it in order to complete the deal, or if Tampa is adding Span, I'd add Gonsalves to the package, but Lewis Thorpe is one I would absolutely not want to part with. I see too much potential with him.

[jorgenswest]

That's too much for me, I honestly think that proposal minus Romero is fair value. That's one controllable and talented MLB ready player who could be a star, one top 50 prospect by most publications, and another MLB ready back of the rotation type of player. That is a fair haul for a guy who had a 4 ERA last year

I agree that it is fair value. Someone will overpay to get Archer. The Twins can’t win the deal unless it is too much. Look at the return for Quintana who is similar in performance age and years of control at the time of his trade.

[Oxtung]

The fact that just about everyone has been willing to trade Kepler+ for Archer should tell us all it isn’t going to happen. If it isn’t painful for both sides then it isn’t an even trade.

[puckstopper1]

If we land Archer in a trade with the Rays, does that mean the Twins have 2 "archers" on the roster? (See Fernando R.'s "game over" motion).

[Tomj14]

 

That's too much for me, I honestly think that proposal minus Romero is fair value. That's one controllable and talented MLB ready player who could be a star, one top 50 prospect by most publications, and another MLB ready back of the rotation type of player. That is a fair haul for a guy who had a 4 ERA last year

So a average corner outfielder with upside, and top prospect that probably isn't going to stay as a SS, a big time arm that has been injured and has a 50/50 shot at ending up in the bullpen, and a possible 4th starter is too much to give up for a 29 year old starter with a few more controllable years with 160 career starts and 3.63 ERA.

That is what I say if I am Tampa in response to you.

[laloesch]

 

I would do:

Max Kepler
Fernando Romero
Nick Gordon
Felix Jorge

That would be more than fair.

 

Not enough.  I think they would want Gonsalves, Romero, Kepler and Lewis.

[Shaitan]

I think a TB pitching trade right now is the same as a Dozier trade last winter. It will only happen if teams overpay.

 

TB will hold him until at least the break. What's the motivation to move Archer or Ordizzini (sp?) now? The only one I see is if they get an offer they can't refuse.

[TheLeviathan]

Again, just start resigning yourself to Tillman and Garcia.  (And even taht might be wishful thinking)

 

And then brace for a TD article about how much better they are then Darvish and Archer.  Probably featuring their charity work.  Or how their kids dress.  Or god knows what.

[laloesch]

 

I’d be shocked if Kepler is the ‘centerpiece’

Quite confident they would have to include a couple prospects as well that we would hate to lose.

Fact is if Archer is truly being shopped aggressively there will be about 15 teams competing with us, many of which will have more org depth to outbid us.

Basically this being ‘leaked’ today is an obvious move by the Twins FO and prob indicates the Twins are more or less done in the market for any “real big moves”

If the deal wasn’t good two weeks ago, doubt it’s gonna get the job today, also the rays have zero reason to need to trade him now anyways.

Should have signed Yu and we could have kept Kepler and a bunch of prospects to boot!

 

Yeah.  I honestly don't think Tampa would trade Archer unless we absolutely blew them away with a ridiculous offer such as Romero, Thorpe, Lewis, Kepler or Rosario (they need a LF as well). Even a trade for Odorizzi (whom i'm not as excited about) is going to be painful.  

 

This is a big failure on the new front office.  They really did put all their eggs in one basket on Darvish.  They had better come away with either Archer, Lynn, Cobb, Odorizzi, etc. or they might as well trade Sano and Buxton now and start all over again because by the time some of the pitchers in their farm system are major league ready the offensive core is a year or so from free agency.

[DaveW]

Again, just start resigning yourself to Tillman and Garcia. (And even taht might be wishful thinking)

 

And then brace for a TD article about how much better they are then Darvish and Archer. Probably featuring their charity work. Or how their kids dress. Or god knows what.

Apples to oranges a bit, but if the Timberwolves, Wild And Vikings can be aggressive on the trade and free agent markets, there is no reason why the Twins can’t, right?

 

Yes, none of those teams have won a title, but all have multiple playoff wins (t pups will shortly) since the last Twins playoff win.

[bird]

 

Again, just start resigning yourself to Tillman and Garcia.  (And even taht might be wishful thinking)

 

And then brace for a TD article about how much better they are then Darvish and Archer.  Probably featuring their charity work.  Or how their kids dress.  Or god knows what.

 

Oh. Okay. Thanks for the heads up.