Twins make offer for Chris Archer

[Nine of twelve]

Archer for Sano. Straight up.

As I said in another thread, I'd do this in a heartbeat. If I were Tampa Bay.

[FormerMinnasotan]

As I said in another thread, I'd do this in a heartbeat. If I were Tampa Bay.

Given Sano’s situation I would do it too.

[Tomj14]

Here is why I am ALL for trading.

Here is list of our top 10 or so pitching prospects since 2006 (from BA)

We basically could have traded anybody on this list and not been hurt. Sure Berrios would be a tough one to swallow but he might have gotten us a huge return, Gibson is probably next. Most never made the majors and the ones that did weren't very good.

One thing I see is damn the twins were bad a drafting and trading for pitchers.

The other thing is Gonsalves has been a top prospect since 2014 and Romero since 2015, what would those two have returned and maybe with a good FA signing we would have been way better the last couple of years?

2017
Gonsalves,Romero,Jorge,Jay,Stewart,Graterol,Enlow,Thorpe,Littell,Watson

2016
Jay,Gonsalves,Stewart,Romero,Chargois,Mejia,Burdi,Thorpe,Reed,Hildenberger

2015
Berrios,Jay,Stewart,Meyer,Gonsalves,Chargois,Burdi,Rogers,Thorpe,Reed,Romero

2014
Stewart,Meyer,Berrios,Thorpe,May,Tonkin,Jorge,Jones,Gonsalves,Eades

2013
Gibson,Meyer,Berrios,May,Melotakis,Bard,Chargois,Jones,Tonkin,Baxendale

2012
Hendriks,Boer,Boyd,Salcedo,Wimmers,Gibson,Soliman,Summers,Guerra,Oliveros

2011
Gibson,Wimmers,Hendriks,Bullock,Salcedo,Bromberg,Gutierrez,Soliman,Holbrooks,Hermsen

2010
Gibson,Salcedo,Bullock,Gutierrez,Bromberg,Hermsen,Tottle,Slama,Bashore,Stuifbergen

2009
Hunt,Mijares,Mulvey,Gutierrez,Delaney,Broberg,Robertson,Slama,Manship,Nolte

2008
Robertson,Swarzak,Morlan,Manship,Duensing,Sosa,Mijares,McCardell,Mullins,Rainville

2007
Garza,Slowey,Swarzak,Perkins,Neshek,Smith,Morlan,Manship,Waldrop,Duensing

2006
Liriano,Perkins,Swarkzak,Garza,Rainville,Waldrop

[FormerMinnasotan]

I could live with a trade deal where our centerpieces are Kepler and Gonsalves/Romero. Now I wouldn’t want to give up someone like Lewis Thorpe (as he’ll more than likely be in Chattanooga and will be the most legit pitching prospect there), but instead would float Felix Jorge and Tyler Wells instead. So it would look like this:

Chris Archer and Denard Span for Max Kepler, Fernando Romero (or Stephen Gonsalves), and Felix Jorge (or Tyler Wells).

[Mike Sixel]

If I am the Rays, I want Kepler, Gordon, the AA,AAA, pitcher they like the best, and a low level guy in the Twins top fifteen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If we land Archer in a trade with the Rays, does that mean the Twins have 2 "archers" on the roster? (See Fernando R.'s "game over" motion).

Need to specify which "Fernando R." now.

[Doomtints]

 

Getting Archer would be better than signing Darvish!

 

How so? Archer is a #3.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Keep in mind, Archer is so cheap, even the Dodgers, Yankees, and other teams near the luxury tax threshold could potentially be in the mix. Clearing ~$25 mil for Darvish, with the likes of Ellsbury and Kemp, is darn near impossible. Clearing ~$8 mil to add Archer is a lot easier. And the Dodgers have been rumored in Archer discussions previously.

 

If the Rays insist on including Span, that changes things a bit, but I'm not sure that's necessarily a given.

[spanman2]

I like the contract he would bring over for certain. Great value for the quality of pitcher he is.  Would  be a great addition to the staff.  Obviously they will want a haul for him.  Question is how much does the FO value how much he would add to the rotation vs. what we would have to give up in the prospect/current player pool?  Personally I wouldn't mind seeing if we could get Span back in a Twins uniform (if Kepler is part of deal) while we are at it.  I bet the Rays wouldn't mind shedding additional payroll. 

https://www.draysbay.com/2018/2/5/16973310/tampa-bay-rays-opening-day-payroll-2018-projection-cots-roster-resource  Span was a good ballplayer while he was here.  He turns 34 this year and would be a great veteran in the clubhouse and on the field.  Have a good one all.

[Brandon]

Kepler, Hildenberger, Romero or Gonzales, the 4 million dollar SS in A ball or Gordon, and low level prospect such as Poppin, Blankenship, or Beeker or... and some cash (2 million) and 250k for international signing bonus space for Span and Archer.

 

Is this a more creative frame work?

 

Could we trade 500k cap space in international bonus money for next 4 years? That might be better than a prospect. Just a thought.

[Vanimal46]

Any trade that doesn't include Lewis is a non-starter for Tampa IMO. We're fooling ourselves if we think Tampa isn't going to immediately ask for the top prospect of any team interested in trading for him.

[GP830]

 

Any trade that doesn't include Lewis is a non-starter for Tampa IMO. We're fooling ourselves if we think Tampa isn't going to immediately ask for the top prospect of any team interested in trading for him.

I'd be open to including Lewis, but TB would have to sweeten the pot with Colome. 

Archer and Colome

for

Kepler, Lewis, and Romero

 

Thoughts?

[Vanimal46]

I'd be open to including Lewis, but TB would have to sweeten the pot with Colome.

Archer and Colome

for

Kepler, Lewis, and Romero

 

Thoughts?

I doubt Tampa sweetens the pot. They could get a top 100 prospect for Colome in July. So they're probably hanging up the phone first here.

[Riverbrian]

 

Keep in mind, Archer is so cheap, even the Dodgers, Yankees, and other teams near the luxury tax threshold could potentially be in the mix. Clearing ~$25 mil for Darvish, with the likes of Ellsbury and Kemp, is darn near impossible. Clearing ~$8 mil to add Archer is a lot easier. And the Dodgers have been rumored in Archer discussions previously.

 

If the Rays insist on including Span, that changes things a bit, but I'm not sure that's necessarily a given.

 

I believe I read somewhere that the TB Owner Stuart Sternberg has given them a directive to cut payroll. If so... An Archer trade will give them the chance to tuck span into any trade and if that knocks LA and NY out... i'm ok with that. Might even lessen the prospects necessary to complete the trade. 

 

It doesn't seem like many teams are willing to take on salary. 

[GP830]

 

I doubt Tampa sweetens the pot. They could get a top 100 prospect for Colome in July. So they're probably hanging up the phone first here.

Couldn't the same be said for Archer though? 

[big dog]

 

Apples to oranges a bit, but if the Timberwolves, Wild And Vikings can be aggressive on the trade and free agent markets, there is no reason why the Twins can’t, right?

Yes, none of those teams have won a title, but all have multiple playoff wins (t pups will shortly) since the last Twins playoff win.

In those other leagues, payroll is capped.  If one team outbids another, they have less money available to spend on others.  That lets the smaller market teams have a chance, and also basically requires them to take it.

[ChrisKnutson]

Do whatever it takes to get Archer, without having to give up Lewis, Rooker, Romero, Gonsalves, and especially Kepler.

 

Any, if not all, of these guys would be worth Archer imo:

 

Kirilloff, Gordon, Littel, Palacios, Jorge, Stewart, Lachlan Wells, Thorpedo, and recently acquired Jacob Pearson and David Banuelos (the Rays system lacks catchers). 

 

Or we could just swap Sano for Archer, which would be ok with me.

[twinssouth]

If this is true and we're just hearing about it now, my guess is Tampa is saying Archer is an Ace, if we trade him, we need a young, everyday impact, cost controllable player, a MLB ready reliever and a future Ace to offset Archer, that we can plug into the rotation in a year or two. By then, Tampa should be out of their ridiculous lease with St Pete and have a location locked up closer to Tampa or a move to say, Charlotte.

 

So my guess is Sano or Kepler, a Chargois or Reed and Thorpe or Graterol.

Or, simply Kepler, Chargois and Thorpe. That's quite a haul and still may not be enough.

[Oxtung]

 

Do whatever it takes to get Archer, without having to give up Lewis, Rooker, Romero, Gonsalves, and especially Kepler.

 

Any, if not all, of these guys would be worth Archer imo:

 

Kirilloff, Gordon, Littel, Palacios, Jorge, Stewart, Lachlan Wells, Thorpedo, and recently acquired Jacob Pearson and David Banuelos (the Rays system lacks catchers). 

 

Or we could just swap Sano for Archer, which would be ok with me.

Elite players require both quality and quantity in return. Your scenario eliminates all of the quality options. In short, you could offer all of the Kiriloff, Gordon, et al. package and probably not receive so much as a phone call in return.

 

IMO, I'm not even sure a deal headlined by Lewis gets it done at this point. While he is a good prospect he is not considered an elite one at this point. He is just too big an unknown and too far away at this point to command a big return like Archer (and his contract).

[ChrisKnutson]

Would the Rays would take two possible "aces" in Brusdar Graterol and Blayne Enlow (to offset the loss of Archer)? Then all Twins' need to do is throw in Nick Gordon and Jake Reed and Archer's a Minnesota Twin, Right?

 

 

[ChrisKnutson]

Why can't a quantity of quality (not elite) be a good return? Because not every prospect is a sure thing and there is such thing as development (we are talking real people, not just numbers).

 

Also, I'd add Kirilloff to the group consisting of Enlow, Graterol, Gordon, and Reed for Archer.

[NewClearHarley]

 

Moving Kepler and adding Archer moves our payroll to 111m or so. I'm not sure how much Gomez would cost but Cobb is at least 12m/yr and probably a lot more. I don't think we're that kind of payroll. I would guess with Granite, Grossman and Wade the Twins would find someone to hold the fort over Gomez. Maybe we don't add Cobb and add a 4m OFer who can slug but not field? I dunno. I just think we're close to our payroll limit already.

Apparently people didn't read my post from yesterday stating that the Archer trade should involve us taking on Span's bloated contract (to save on the number of prospects we have to dole out) - he isn't the Span of five years ago, but he (along with Grossman and Granite) should be satisfactory for the RF slot.

[NewClearHarley]

 

Hmmmm... yeah, I guess this is path they have to take next. Archer is going to be really expensive, but if the Twins are serious about competing, they're gonna have to pony up. 

 

So, roughly, something like:

Archer and Span for Kepler, Gordon, Romero, and Baddoo? I'm just throwing names out there. 

 

Then the Twins sign Jaime Garcia to a one year deal and they're probably at $130M+... probably not enough to sign Gomez. Then you start Span/Grossman and hope the ball doesn't get hit to RF?

 

That's a tough situation IMO. It might be worth it to salvage the starting rotation.

actually that is just about right - even if we don't sign Go-Go, we should be ok with a lesser RF with Buxton able to cover 70% of the OF by himself.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why can't a quantity of quality (not elite) be a good return? Because not every prospect is a sure thing and there is such thing as development (we are talking real people, not just numbers).

Elite talent/potential is more scarce. Four B prospects may not equal one A prospect. Obviously this can vary a bit by player/team, but you will probably have a hard time finding past trade comps based on quantity over quality returns as you describe.

[Oxtung]

 

Why can't a quantity of quality (not elite) be a good return? Because not every prospect is a sure thing and there is such thing as development (we are talking real people, not just numbers).

 

Also, I'd add Kirilloff to the group consisting of Enlow, Graterol, Gordon, and Reed for Archer.

 

When teams give up elite players they want players with elite potential in return. The White Sox got a top 5 prospect in baseball in return for Quintana (who is a pretty good comp to Archer). The Twins don't have anybody near that level at this point. Unless Lewis starts at Cedar Rapids and has an OPS > .900 and solidifies his defense enough to stick at shortstop the Twins won't have that prospect next year either.

[adorduan]

Tampa Bay usually wins the trades with us.   Beware.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Tampa Bay usually wins the trades with us.   Beware.

They clearly won a trade against Smith when Friedman was running Tampa.

 

Both are gone.

 

The Jepsen trade was pretty meh. The Twins got one very good half season out of him and a very bad season that didn't matter because the entire team was terrible.

[Mike Sixel]

Elite players require both quality and quantity in return. Your scenario eliminates all of the quality options. In short, you could offer all of the Kiriloff, Gordon, et al. package and probably not receive so much as a phone call in return.

 

IMO, I'm not even sure a deal headlined by Lewis gets it done at this point. While he is a good prospect he is not considered an elite one at this point. He is just too big an unknown and too far away at this point to command a big return like Archer (and his contract).

Gordon is in the top fifty prospects for some.... And kiriloff in the to 100....

[Vanimal46]

Would the Rays would take two possible "aces" in Brusdar Graterol and Blayne Enlow (to offset the loss of Archer)? Then all Twins' need to do is throw in Nick Gordon and Jake Reed and Archer's a Minnesota Twin, Right?

Let's reverse roles. Would you trade Berrios for two 18 year olds?

[twinsfanstreif]

So a average corner outfielder with upside, and top prospect that probably isn't going to stay as a SS, a big time arm that has been injured and has a 50/50 shot at ending up in the bullpen, and a possible 4th starter is too much to give up for a 29 year old starter with a few more controllable years with 160 career starts and 3.63 ERA.

That is what I say if I am Tampa in response to you.

Well you are under valuing our guys and over valuing theirs. Archer is not without blemishes too