Yahoo Sports Says Both Twins and Cardinals Pursuing Trade with Rays for Chris Archer

[mudcat14]

Gordon & Romero plus another lower-level, higher ceiling prospect like Lachlan Wells would be about my limit for Archer.  Granted, Darvish may be decidedly better.  But the $100mil payroll savings could come in handy for filling other holes or to help lock up some of our current budding talent in arbitration cancelling deals.

[rghrbek]

I would absolutely want Archer over Darvish.  I flat out think he's a better pitcher who has been on a bad team recently .  Gordon is a big prospect for many on this site, and I get that.  If it was him and number of other players I would be fine with that.  I think Gordon is a border line MLB starter, but a legit prospect.  If we could get Archer, who is younger with a cheap contract, relatively speaking, I would trade multiple decent prospect for him over Yu. 

 

I just think that makes more sense for our team.  

 

However, if we signed Darvish I would be happy if it was 4 or 5 years.  I think it will require more, and I think he will decline in years 3, 4 and 5.

 

I prefer to not lose Lewis but even with him we don't know he's just too young.  If he's part of the package I would be find with that.  I guess it all depends on how much is too much?

 

At this point who knows?  I just am glad the Twins are actually in the running or in the hot stove for both

 

Skol

[Monkeypaws]

 

And let the prospects go away in a Rule 5 draft or as minor league free agents...

The kind of prospects being bandied about here aren't going to be rule-5 fodder. They'll be MLB players. 

[beckmt]

Tampa Bay needs middle infield help now and not later.  I would guess that Gordon could be a piece along with either Gonsalves or Romero, plus another decent prospect or two.  Still doubt without Lewis we will be able to top St. Louis offer.  

Depends on Twins level of pain, but would not be happy if we traded Lewis. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I mean, they absolutely are. 

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/10/24/16537288/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2018

 

A- vs. A-/B+. #1 vs. #2. Floor vs. Ceiling. Yeah, they're comparable, especially when you consider immediate needs. In fact, I'll bet I could find you some teams that would want Gordon even when their evaluations lead them to believe that Lewis is better, simply because they can plug Gordon into the lineup pretty much now.

 

Fine if you like Lewis better; I mean, I guess I do too, but it's close. But "not even remotely comparable"? That's hyperbolic.

No, it really isn't. You are wrong. Gordon cannot be plugged into a lineup "right now" without getting pretty bad results on both offense and defense. There are probably less than a handful of teams that need a SS so bad they would consider starting Gordon this coming season, and none of them are anywhere near making the playoffs, so all of them might as well sign a replacement level or slightly better SS and wait a year or two more for Lewis to reach his much higher ceiling. Yes, nothing is for certain, but any GM that values Gordon higher than Lewisat this point is suspect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Tampa Bay needs middle infield help now and not later.

Actually, the Rays seem to have quite a few young pieces in the middle infield already -- their own top prospect Adames, Arroyo just acquired from the Giants, Robertson... not necessarily future stars but guys who are ready to get long looks in MLB. Gordon has value and could still be a part of a package, but I doubt they would insist on him.

 

A team like Tampa clearly can't afford guys like Darvish or JD Martinez on the open market, so I feel like if they choose to deal him, they would need to use the Archer chip to acquire ace potential or elite position player potential, rather than just more modest upside prospect depth. And Lewis is probably the closest thing the ace/elite status that Twins have in their minor league system.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Actually, the Rays seem to have quite a few young pieces in the middle infield already -- their own top prospect Adames, Arroyo just acquired from the Giants, Robertson... not necessarily future stars but guys who are ready to get long looks in MLB. Gordon has value and could still be a part of a package, but I doubt they would insist on him.

 

A team like Tampa clearly can't afford guys like Darvish or JD Martinez on the open market, so I feel like if they choose to deal him, they would need to use the Archer chip to acquire ace potential or elite position player potential, rather than just more modest upside prospect depth. And Lewis is probably the closest thing the ace/elite status that Twins have in their minor league system.

if Lewis is a part of my package for Archer, I don’t think the package would consist of more than 2-3 players. I don’f really want to give up Lewis, but would. Can’t give up Lewis and too much depth

[Otto von Ballpark]

if Lewis is a part of my package for Archer, I don’t think the package would consist of more than 2-3 players

I wouldn't worry about the quantity right now. If a 4th piece was involved, it could be someone relatively marginal -- it wouldn't be, say, Thorpe or Javier.

 

Seems like a lot of big deals have come together in recent years with 1 elite prospect, 1 good prospect from the next tier (maybe potentially elite but with some obvious concerns), and then a couple filler pieces. I don't see the Rays pursuing something else with Archer (like a non-elite depth deal) or he would have been dealt already.

 

The question for the Twins is, do we have those top 2 pieces, are we willing to give them up, and will the Rays share that evaluation of them? If those 3 things come together, then the rest should work itself out.

[Platoon]

I would prefer Archer over Darvish, and keeping the prospects over the money. But those two preferences clash. So would Sano, with his warts, mitigate the prospect cost? I know this is harsh, and I don't know if other GM'S would feel the same way, but if I am the Twins trading Sano to get an Archer level pitcher would be a plus/plus. While I still expect Sano to be an elite level hitter when on the field, I just cannot see that happening. I highly doubt he wants to be a full time DH, and it doesn't seem an unhappy Sano makes a contribution to the roster. As for our glut of MI, I would not worry. There is plenty room for defensive improvement in the MI.

[gunnarthor]

 

So what are we looking at as far as prospects? I'm bad at evaluating these kind of things

Probably one top 50 prospect and another top 100 prospect + two solid pieces to go with it. Rays 40 man is full and per BA, they have a solid system but lack pitching "on the immediate horizon." They also lack catching depth. So if you assume they want pitching but don't want to clog up their 40 man roster with all of these guys, maybe they'd want Romero and Gonsalves (both top 100 arms, both on 40 man) + Graterol (biggest upside pitcher we have, not on 40 man yet, good lottery pick) and Enlow (first round talent in last draft, huge upside, not on 40 man)? Would probably depend on how Rays view Gonsalves and Romero. We've seen some pretty wide opinions on those two so far in early prospect rankings this year but both are probably top 100 as opposed to top 50 types. Do the other higher end pieces move the needle enough?

 

I think Lewis is the Twins only consensus top 50 prospect and he's probably top 25, bordering on elite. Twins won't trade him. But they have arguably another 6 or 7 guys that will make someone's top 100 list this offseason.

[bird]

 

Tampa Bay needs middle infield help now and not later.  I would guess that Gordon could be a piece along with either Gonsalves or Romero, plus another decent prospect or two.  Still doubt without Lewis we will be able to top St. Louis offer.  

Depends on Twins level of pain, but would not be happy if we traded Lewis. 

 

I'm not sure the Cards have a better MI prospect than Lewis, Gordon, and Javier, and if TBR needs immediate help, even Gordon needs another full year to increase his stamina and polish some things.

 

Still hoping for Darvish.

[laloesch]

Tampa Bay needs middle infield help now and not later.  I would guess that Gordon could be a piece along with either Gonsalves or Romero, plus another decent prospect or two.  Still doubt without Lewis we will be able to top St. Louis offer.  

Depends on Twins level of pain, but would not be happy if we traded Lewis.

 

They could also really use a left fielder as well. Rosario anyone?

[TheLeviathan]

Do both. Especially if they inexplicably take Gordon as the centerpiece.

[Mike Sixel]

I prefer the expensive agent to giving up prospects. I most prefer doing both, but if I only do one, I sign Darvish.

[Riverbrian]

 

I would prefer Archer over Darvish, and keeping the prospects over the money. But those two preferences clash. So would Sano, with his warts, mitigate the prospect cost? I know this is harsh, and I don't know if other GM'S would feel the same way, but if I am the Twins trading Sano to get an Archer level pitcher would be a plus/plus. While I still expect Sano to be an elite level hitter when on the field, I just cannot see that happening. I highly doubt he wants to be a full time DH, and it doesn't seem an unhappy Sano makes a contribution to the roster. As for our glut of MI, I would not worry. There is plenty room for defensive improvement in the MI. 

 

IMO... Sano is at perhaps his lowest possible value right now with his combination of a steel rod in his leg and off field issues. 

 

If his true talent level is anywhere near what experts have projected. Trading Sano at his lowest possible value would be tough to explain in future job interviews.

 

If he can hit... let him hit and repair his value.

 

Then you consider trading him. 

 

If Sano's value never recovers... if this is the beginning of a downward spiral. We never had a chance because I think we are at the point where nobody rolls the dice until he re-demonstrates he is still Sano... the budding superstar. 

 

 

 

[The Wise One]

 

The kind of prospects being bandied about here aren't going to be rule-5 fodder. They'll be MLB players. 

Many thought that Burdi would be the closer by now.   Anything is possible until proven success

[Riverbrian]

 

 

I'm all for trading for Archer... although... I would be reluctant to give up any starting pitching prospects in return and Tampa seems to always ask for pitching in return. I'd also make Royce Lewis untouchable. 

 

I have never seen any of the farm kids play so I don't have any strong opinions on anyone. But... I assume being the 1st pick overall suggests potentially amazing so i'm keeping him and everybody needs pitching and pitching depth so the pitchers would be off limits. 

 

Gordon and Kirilloff. I'll trade those guys. 

[nicksaviking]

In TB's case I think 'MLB Ready' is going to carry quite a bit of value. Overall that typically seems to be the case in trades; players with some MLB experience carry more weight than what prospect wonks tend to give them. TB in particular has always been resistant to rebuilding, I'd bet guys like Garver, Kepler, Mejia, Polanco and the various relievers actually have more value than we'd normally give them credit for.

[Doomtints]

 

Why is Archer's cost so high?  I get that he strikes out a lot of guys but look at that ERA.  Seems like a 3 or 4 at best.

 

$$$. He is under contract through 2021 for peanuts. And, if he drops off a cliff, the team can walk away from the contract after 2019. I believe he fired his agency after realizing he got screwed.

 

I agree, he is no ace. His career numbers are largely based on a very good 2015 and a decent 2013-2014. With two years of poor performance since he's a high risk in my book, so the Twins should only do this if they want to get rid of somebody like Sano.

[Doomtints]

 

IMO... Sano is at perhaps his lowest possible value right now with his combination of a steel rod in his leg and off field issues. 

 

If his true talent level is anywhere near what experts have projected. Trading Sano at his lowest possible value would be tough to explain in future job interviews.

 

If he can hit... let him hit and repair his value.

 

Then you consider trading him. 

 

If Sano's value never recovers... if this is the beginning of a downward spiral. We never had a chance because I think we are at the point where nobody rolls the dice until he re-demonstrates he is still Sano... the budding superstar. 

 

I agree. The Twins are paying him nearly nothing. He would have to drop to Aaron Hicks levels for 'value' questions to even come up.

 

The Twins know what he can do. They should let him do it, and stop dinking around with trying to change him. If this is too hard for the Twins to do, then they need to let him go.

[Twinfan & Dad]

I sure am enjoying the offseason. Fortified the bullpen and having a discussion on adding a top end starting pitcher. In years past it was signing a Pelfrey, Ponsen, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia or some other reclamation project. Ive said it before and I'll say it again, THIS FRONT OFFICE HAS THEIR **** TOGETHER!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd bet guys like Garver, Kepler, Mejia, Polanco and the various relievers actually have more value than we'd normally give them credit for.

But, plenty of clubs have talent of that level and are willing to deal it. So even if Tampa wants that (and I am not yet convinced that they do, at least not enough to have a meaningful effect on the top piece or two), it does not offer a unique advantage for the Twins.

 

Also, I'd drop Kepler from your list as he's just a year away from arbitration. Polanco has used up a full year of service time too. Tampa needs to maximize pre-arb contributions.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd prefer they spend the cash and keep the prospects. Those prospects will be needed to fill a hole when someone invariably gets hurt, either by getting called up or traded at the deadline...

 

Now that said, I'd love Archer in MN... I'd just prefer they get Darvish (even though I'm probably higher on Archer long term)...

 

If they are going to go after Archer, I'd expect them to part with at least one of Gonsalves/Romero, and hope that they'd be sending a guy like Jorge out too. If Tampa needs near ML ready pitching, we actually do have some of that, so sending an upside guy like Gonsalves plus a high floor guy like Jorge would be a nice start, but TB is going to want much more than that. I have to think Lewis would be going to. I personally wouldn't be as upset as some about that, but that's a hefty price... hence I'd prefer the cash.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It doesn't make sense that the FO would want to trade Lewis as he's on the verge of becoming an elite prospect. Yet the Twins have been in continuing discussions about Archer. So something is off, either with one of those players or with the reporting of it or with us who are discussing it.

[nicksaviking]

But, plenty of clubs have talent of that level and are willing to deal it. So even if Tampa wants that (and I am not yet convinced that they do, at least not enough to have a meaningful effect on the top piece or two), it does not offer a unique advantage for the Twins.

Also, I'd drop Kepler from your list as he's just a year away from arbitration. Polanco has used up a full year of service time too. Tampa needs to maximize pre-arb contributions.

I don't think most buyers want to or can afford to deal from their MLB Ready talent. The Twins have more expendable players like this then they usually do.

[Doomtints]

 

I sure am enjoying the offseason. Fortified the bullpen and having a discussion on adding a top end starting pitcher. In years past it was signing a Pelfrey, Ponsen, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia or some other reclamation project. Ive said it before and I'll say it again, THIS FRONT OFFICE HAS THEIR **** TOGETHER!

 

Nolasco was a highly regarded free agent at the time, and there were VERY few Twins fans ringing the alarm bells. I only know of a couple of us.

 

Archer looks similar to Nolasco to me. A good year in the past with a misleading FIP.

 

In my opinion, the Twins moving assets to land Archer would be nearly as dumb as the Milone trade. The classic con. Hopefully the Twins give up something crappy in return, if this happens, as they did with Milone.

[jimmer]

Archer is a very, very good pitcher.  Been that was since 2013.  Getting him would be great.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think most buyers want to or can afford to deal from their MLB Ready talent. The Twins have more expendable players like this then they usually do.

For 4 affordable years of Archer, I am guessing a few teams could part with a corner OF (Kepler), or a backup catcher (Garver), or a back of the rotation option (Mejia), or relievers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It doesn't make sense that the FO would want to trade Lewis as he's on the verge of becoming an elite prospect. Yet the Twins have been in continuing discussions about Archer. So something is off, either with one of those players or with the reporting of it or with us who are discussing it.

I am sure my assessment of the situation is 100% accurate.

 

But seriously, could be that Lewis has already moved into elite territory in the eyes of the Rays.

[jkcarew]

Why would a cash-strapped, struggling franchise like the Rays want to trade a young (let's say at least 'above average') starter with a great contract?  To whom is that asset more valuable than it already is for a franchise like the Rays?  They don't.  And, nobody.  BTW...My house is perfect for us and our teen-aged kids.  But I'm accepting offers this spring for $200k more than it's worth.  If you're interested, I'll let you know how to contact me.

 

It seems to me that we are rapidly getting to a point where it's possible that acquiring Archer in 2018 is going to be a 'buy-high' proposition, while acquiring Darvish is going to be a 'buy-low' proposition.  Well, low-ish.  With regard to Darvish, I didn't see that coming.