Article: A (Twins) Territory Divided

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

FYI:

 

Anthony

1:59 What makes Dan Straily sort of good? Can he keep doing this?

 

 

Eno Sarris

2:00 1) Has the biggest or second biggest difference between the fastball and changeup vertically, meaning he's combining a rising fastball (popups) with a great change (whiffs and grounders).

2) Throws anything in any count.

3) Has decent command and three legit pitches.

I think he can be league average, slightly better, for a while, yes.

Looks like Rob Anthony is asking around about Straily. This is good news!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Looks like Rob Anthony is asking around about Straily. This is good news!

 

funny, didn't even notice that!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looks like Rob Anthony is asking around about Straily. This is good news!

And to disguise his public inquiries, he has cleverly added a letter "h" in his last name!

[Thrylos]

 

Looks like Rob Anthony is asking around about Straily. This is good news!

 

One h too many for that guy

[simsypoo]

Twins have a -61 run differential. Their expected win/loss record should be 41-53 at this point. It's a miracle they have a winning record. The Astros have absolutely slaughtered them in regular season play so far, I don't see them beating a team of that caliber in the playoffs.

 

I would NOT be betting the farm on this team. If they play closer to what their run differential is implying.. all buying is going to do is allow them to tread a little longer before eventually sputtering out. They've got young arms with innings limits, put those guys in the bullpen in August/September and keep giving players like Turley chances until they can figure it out.

 

I'd hate to see the Twins empty the cupboards only to see the Team get swept in the first round, and then play losing baseball the following year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

It seems like a lot of people are interpreting "buy" as in all-out go for it mode. I don't think the team needs to shoot for the moon and sell off the farm.

 

If they could just get a seventh inning guy better than Duffey (who has a 7.59 ERA over the last four weeks) and a fourth starter better than then guys they've been rolling out there (Twins starters not named Santana, Berrios or Mejia have a 6.68 ERA this season), that would dramatically improve this team. Does it make them favorites? Good golly no, but it gives them a great shot to catch Cleveland.

 

One thing about the postseason is it shortens your roster. More off days means you can rely on fewer starting pitchers and fewer guys in your bullpen. You could go with a three-man rotation. Kintzler and Rogers could be available nearly every night.

 

Last year, Cleveland made it to Game 7 of the World Series with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin in their rotation. Ryan Merrit made a start for them, for cripes sakes! They were able to use Allen and Miller in 10 of their 15 postseason games.

 

This Twins team is nowhere near as good as the 2016 Clevelanders, but I do think they deserve a shot. A seventh-inning guy and a fourth starter would give them that shot, and I don't think it would cripple the system.

 

At playoff time the Twins could be better than the 2016 Clevelanders. 

 

I agree with your second to the last paragraph. The Indians had Kluber start 6 games and then 9 games were started by Tomlin 4, Bauer 4 and Ryan Merritt 1. That incredible Indian rotation was injured and Tomlin and Bauer was all they had left. 

 

At the plate... it wasn't like Cleveland was loaded in the playoffs either. 

 

Rajai Davis

Coco Crisp

Lonnie Chisenhall in the OF

Roberto Perez was the Catcher

 

Even the so called Elite Indians were not that elite

Napoli

Santana

Kipnis

 

Those are decent players but they are not elite talents IMO. 

 

The Indians looked pretty average on paper but look what happened. They almost did it. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

The Twins could lose by 250 runs, it still counts as 1 loss in the record book. 

They spent 45 days (not including off-days) in first place

They have not been under .500 since late April

The most amount of games they've been under .500 all year? 2. On April 25th. 

 

These are more important than run differential. 

Edited July 20, 2017 by Vanimal46

[mikelink45]

Buy only if we get a front line piece like Gray, Sell only if we have the plan to replace and the talent level is too good to walk away from.  Do not deal in mediocrity, we have seen that moving van come through too often this season.  Stand pat rather than making a worthless splash.  So I am for all three it just depends... 

[Craig Arko]

 

The Twins could lose by 250 runs, it still counts as 1 loss in the record book. 

They spent 45 days (not including off-days) in first place

They have not been under .500 since late April

The most amount of games they've been under .500 all year? 2. On April 25th. 

 

These are more important than run differential. 

That's feeding Pythagoras some beans.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And to disguise his public inquiries, he has cleverly added a letter "h" in his last name!

Never pass an opportunity for a good* joke

 

*debatable

[Blake]

 

The Twins could lose by 250 runs, it still counts as 1 loss in the record book. 

They spent 45 days (not including off-days) in first place

They have not been under .500 since late April

The most amount of games they've been under .500 all year? 2. On April 25th. 

 

These are more important than run differential. 

I believe run differential is also skewed, greatly, by the number of games the Twins have absolutely been slaughtered in.

 

When a team loses several games by 7 or more runs, it doesn't take long for the run differential to get ugly, yet be somewhat meaningless when it comes to how the team is actually doing.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I believe run differential is also skewed, greatly, by the number of games the Twins have absolutely been slaughtered in.

 

When a team loses several games by 7 or more runs, it doesn't take long for the run differential to get ugly, yet be somewhat meaningless when it comes to how the team is actually doing.

 

One of our members pointed out that if you remove both ends (slaughterer, and slaughterie), they still have a huge issue with run differential. You can't just ignore one of the tails. 

[Vanimal46]

 

To your point: in 2013 Nick Punto batted .333 in the post season for the Dodgers.

 

Jeff Weaver pitched extremely well for the Cardinals during their post season run to a World Series win in 2006.

 

Both are answers to trivia questions when it comes to MLB.

 

And furthermore, Rajai Davis came to the plate in the 8th inning of game 7 batting .121. Hasn't hit a HR since August 30th. Then hit one of the most dramatic game-tying HRs off of the game's best closing pitchers. 

Playoff baseball is awesome. 

[gman]

 

First and foremost I'd like to see some promotions.

Twins:

I'd like to see Breslow and potentially Belisle be DFA'd or waived whichever it is. In their place I would promote one of Busenitz or Curtiss and then also bring up Garver, Park or Varges.

 

Minors:

I'd like to see Gonsalves and potentially Romero and Jorge moved up to AAA and I'd like to see Thorpe moved up to AA.

 

As for trades I wouldn't blow the farm on a move unless it's for Archer, which I don't see happening. I would however like to see someone added to the bullpen and potentially a back end of the rotation starter. A rotation of Santana, Berrios, Mejia, Trade and Gibson is pretty solid overall. It's not going to compete against the top few teams but should be good enough to allow them to compete the rest of the season. I also would like to see a veteran RH bench bat added as well.

FYI - TB actually has 3 more wins than the Twins at this point and are in the top wild card spot. I don't see them trading a pitcher at this point.

[Blake]

 

One of our members pointed out that if you remove both ends (slaughterer, and slaughterie), they still have a huge issue with run differential. You can't just ignore one of the tails. 

I believe the number of times the Twins have been slaughtered far outweigh the number of times they've pounded the opponent.

 

Either that, or the Houston pounding really skewed my memory.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Blake

[pbrezeasap]

 

One of our members pointed out that if you remove both ends (slaughterer, and slaughterie), they still have a huge issue with run differential. You can't just ignore one of the tails. 

According to BR Twins are 13-21 in blowouts (5+ runs) with 199 RS and 271 RA, so 35-25 and 229 RS vs 218 RA in all other games, so I guess they are outperforming a little in close games, but doesn't seem like a huge issue to me.

[Tom Froemming]

Twins have been really good in close games, and when the pitching staff can at least keep them in it they usually win.

 

Record in one-run games

Twins 10-5 (.667)

Astros 10-6 (.625)

Red Sox 13-10 (.565)

Mariners 13-10 (.565)

Royals 11-9 (.550)

Rays 13-11 (.542)

Cleveland 9-11 (.450)

Yankees 9-18 (.333)

 

Record when allowing five or fewer runs

Astros 53-12 (.815)

Twins 43-13 (.768)

Rays 47-17 (.734)

Royals 40-19 (.678)

Red Sox 50-24 (.676)

Yankees 43-23 (.652)

Mariners 41-23 (.641)

Cleveland 40-26 (.606)

[Thrylos]

 

That's feeding Pythagoras George William James   some beans.

 

FTFY

[Jham]

One of our members pointed out that if you remove both ends (slaughterer, and slaughterie), they still have a huge issue with run differential. You can't just ignore one of the tails.

Twins have left the second most runners on base and 3rd most in scoring position. Run differential should tighten up.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I'm all for making a push this year, but buyer be ware...watch out for those White Sox in a few years.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Pardon My Dinger

[Mr. Brooks]

You know, if I had a gun to my head I'd probably say this isn't a playoff team, even with help.

But, every time I've expected them to fold, they haven't.

Therefore, I wouldn't be able to sell. At least not right now. Still over a week until deadline, so that could change.

At the same time though, I'm just not giving up any legit prospects.

Definitely not giving up Gordon, Gonsalves, or Romero.

Would prefer not to give up Thorpe or Wade either.

Would consider buying undervalued pieces if I can get them for guys like Jorge, or Granite, or Rosario, etc.

[gman]

 

Twins have been really good in close games, and when the pitching staff can at least keep them in it they usually win.

 

Record in one-run games

Twins 10-5 (.667)

Astros 10-6 (.625)

Red Sox 13-10 (.565)

Mariners 13-10 (.565)

Royals 11-9 (.550)

Rays 13-11 (.542)

Cleveland 9-11 (.450)

Yankees 9-18 (.333)

 

Record when allowing five or fewer runs

Astros 53-12 (.815)

Twins 43-13 (.768)

Rays 47-17 (.734)

Royals 40-19 (.678)

Red Sox 50-24 (.676)

Yankees 43-23 (.652)

Mariners 41-23 (.641)

Cleveland 40-26 (.606)

Does that mean in more than 40% of their games they given up over 6 runs per?

[spinowner]

 

Neither. I want to scout well, draft well, and sign the right free agents at the right times so we don't have to worry about trading away a player we would rather keep.

 

 

Trades are part of how you acquire talent. Every winning team uses that path.

Please note the last four words of my post. Of course teams do and should make trades. If we happen to need a player at one position the goal would be to have a surplus of good players at another position so we would be able to make a trade without leaving ourselves with a weakness.

[spinowner]

 

I'm also pretty sure the stros can't keep up their level of play.

I'm pretty sure they can.

[spinowner]

 

They spent 45 days (not including off-days) in first place

Totally irrelevant. The only day being in first place that matters is the last day of the season.

[old nurse]

 

Seattle just traded 4 prospects, including their #6 (per mlb.com) for David Phelps. Phelps is a 7th-8th inning guy the Twins could use, but that price seems pretty high. This year's trade market has been all over the place. The Yankees got Robertson, Frazier and Kahnle for 1 legit top prospect and two mid level guys. If the price for Phelps sets the market, the Twins need to sit this one out. If the White Sox take is more realistic, I'm in. One more reason I don't understand the decision not to bring in legit relief arms this off-season.

For almost  the equivalent of Lamont Wade and 3 filler for Phelps. the rest of this year and next year. I do not see it as a bad trade for either side

[spinowner]

 

One thing about the postseason is it shortens your roster. More off days means you can rely on fewer starting pitchers and fewer guys in your bullpen. You could go with a three-man rotation.

The only way you could go with a 3-man rotation would be to be a division winner and sweep the DS and CS series. Otherwise there would be too many starts on 3 days' rest. Someone can research this, but I bet there have been very few teams to win the WS with only 3 starting pitchers since the format was changed to 4 postseason teams from each league.

[spinowner]

 

Does that mean in more than 40% of their games they given up over 6 runs per?

Almost. It means that in 40.4% of their games they have given up over 5 runs.

[whydidnt]

 

For almost  the equivalent of Lamont Wade and 3 filler for Phelps. the rest of this year and next year. I do not see it as a bad trade for either side

Well then, if it was that easy, I wish the Twins had made that deal. I wonder why they didn't? Is there any doubt they need pitching help?

[whydidnt]

 

I believe run differential is also skewed, greatly, by the number of games the Twins have absolutely been slaughtered in.

 

When a team loses several games by 7 or more runs, it doesn't take long for the run differential to get ugly, yet be somewhat meaningless when it comes to how the team is actually doing.

However, the counter argument is that good teams don't give up 6+ runs a game, or get beat by a large margin on a frequent basis. You are correct that a loss is a loss regardless of the margin, but run differential remains as as one of the tools you can use to help determine if a team's record is supported by the play on the field, and how good the team is. When's the last time a world series team had a run differential similar to what the Twins have this year? (I don't know, so it's a legitimate question I should try to research!)