Park or Polka... Pick your Poison... Vargas should be DFAd... asaP

[yarnivek1972]

I'm not saying off with his head for this decision alone, but- but Gawd Awmightie, it's just another in the long, long, line of 'WTF can Molly possibly be thinking' kind of decisions. I've been tired of those kinds of things for 2 years now.

This

 

 

Let's start with: batting third, Byron Buxton; Batting fourth, Joe Mauer.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm in London, so missed these game, what did Vargas do to earn a DFA!?!?

As far as I can tell, he simply got removed from the game for a pinch hitter.....

[The Wise One]

 

I'm in London, so missed these game, what did Vargas do to earn a DFA!?!?

http://calltothepen.com/2017/05/21/new-york-yankees-aaron-hicks-play-first-base/

 

As long as this is a supposed tongue in cheek thread, I thought I would add some more information that the Twins missed out on a golden chance to not only have a backup outfielder with an OPS of 6000000 but also a backup first baseman/DH/God as well thus making an Escobar pinch hit a non issue

[Platoon]

I would have far preferred if Molly had let Vargas hit, and then pinch ran for him if he got to first base. I turned on the game just before EE hit the next time through the order when Danno was explains the lack of Vargas in that spot. I sort of figured the pitchforks and torches would be out. Actually the move was so Molitorish that it shouldn't raise an eyebrow anymore. Baseball players are pros, and paid to play. But they are also human. I would bet that having a utility IF hit for your DH type in that situation will go a long way towards building confidence and rapport with said player.

[bighat]

 

Better idea: fire Paul Molitor. I'm pretty sure Falvey didn't put Vargas on the roster for Paulie to pinch hit his utility infielder for him.

 

I think Molitor has a huge impact on slowing the development of this young team.  He's a detriment to the squad overall.  A box of crackers has more personality and brains.  He's received a free pass from ownership and I am disappointed he's the manager during this development window.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Objects in post may be closer (or farther) apart than you think...

 

Vargas OPS+ 108 (2017) 103 (career) 68 (as PH)

Escobar OPS+ 94 (2017) 87 (career) 43 (as PH)

Santana OPS+ 60 (2017) 87 (career) 55 (as PH)

Escobar had an OPS+ north of 100 (just barely, but still) in two of the past three seasons. Last season was a disaster but he must have been injured because he was so bad at everything.

 

Vargas is likely the better hitter but going from recent numbers, maybe not by a lot.

 

I don't really care what Escobar did in his age 22-24 seasons when he accumulated fewer than 200 plate appearances a season. It's not relevant to who he is today as a 28 year old any more than Brian Dozier's 2012 is relevant to who he is in 2017.

 

Still, Vargas deserves a legit shot at playing every day for a couple of months. This organization hasn't done the guy any favors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What is Escobar's OPS+ split?

Severe LHP bias. And he was brought in to face a lefty, IIRC.

 

Escobar career splits (these include Escobar's horrible 22-24 age seasons):

RHP: .640 OPS

LHP: .766 OPS

 

Vargas career splits:

RHP: .733 OPS

LHP:  .771 OPS

 

I would have let Vargas hit in that situation but once you dig into the numbers, the decision becomes defensible. It's certainly not idiotic by any means. Against LHP pitching in their careers, Escobar and Vargas have nearly identical splits in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging; within a few points of each other on all three slashes.

 

Difference of opinion should not be conflated with right/wrong, especially when the numbers don't back up your argument and are deep into a grey area.

[mikelink45]

I am getting the feeling that the Park discussions are going the way of the second string QB.  There is a reason that Park is not up.  His record - both batting and health - is not screaming call up.  Only his contract says that and like Hughes, the Twins need to learn to ignore contracts in their decisions.  Park is nearing 31, he is not the future, and Palka has not cured his impatience yet - The TD minor league report this week covered that.  Vargas and Grossman are the DHs and we are fine.  What is not fine is a .219 utility player pinch hitting for either one.  

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

When Molly pinch hit for Vargas in the 7th, I immediately spoke up and noted that although he was Playing the Percentages vs. the lefty- the skiPPer had now forfeited a potential chance for Vargas vs. Hererra in the 9th.

 

I like Escobar, but certainly not as a pinch hitter or designated hitter- in what world does a utility player double as the team's catch-all strategic pinch hitter and part-time DH? Especially considering what Vargas had just done in the previous game.

 

Seriously, since it seems that the manager doesn't think much of Vargas's potential to contribute to the team, they may as well move on from Kennys and bring up Park or Polka on Monday.

I appreciate the point, but if we were to do that with all the players that Molitor has treated with no respect we would have lost Berrios and Kepler along with Vargas last year.

At some point you have to keep some players. Molitor has issues with way too many people. He should be trying to get excellence out of his players, but how he can be so impatient with young players and continue to bat Mauer in the top 4 of the batting order against LH pitchers has got to be demoralizing to some of the players.

[Jham]

Sometimes managers play hunches also. Or look at matchups beyond left vs right. On this thread he's been called out for pinch hitting for Bux with one of our hottest hitters, Grossman, even though he did it the other night with Varg, and it saved us. Hey wait, he pinch hit Varg in a big spot? Maybe Molly trusts him a bit afterall and this isn't really a deal. I've been critical of Molly the last couple years. But he's pushing the right buttons right now.

[drjim]

It was a one run game with 2 outs, runner on third when Escobar pinch hit. It didn't work out this way, but beyond the close OPS splits against LH, I think Molitor was playing a hunch that Escobar was more likely to put the ball in play, playing for contact and a hit and the run scoring over a more two outcome we're seeing from Vargas.

 

I probably would have let Vargas hit myself.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It was a one run game with 2 outs, runner on third when Escobar pinch hit. It didn't work out this way, but beyond the close OPS splits against LH, I think Molitor was playing a hunch that Escobar was more likely to put the ball in play, playing for contact and a hit and the run scoring over a more two outcome we're seeing from Vargas.

 

I probably would have let Vargas hit myself.

Yep. I also would have let Vargas hit simply because I don't believe in shuffling deck chairs when the outcomes are likely to be similar.

 

But Escobar had a better chance of putting the ball in play. Both Vargas and Escobar have almost identical batting averages versus LHP but here are their K rates versus lefties:

 

Escobar: once every 5.19 PAs

Vargas: once every 3.79 PAs

 

Again, the decision was defensible. I wouldn't have gone that route but I don't have to agree with everything the manager does, I only want his moves to make sense on some level.

[Mike Sixel]

One or two bad decisions? No issue. He did recently also pinch run for Sano when there was a runner ahead of him, right? Has that EVER worked for Molly? He seems to love to take his big boppers out of the game late, either for a PR or a PH that can "make contact". 

[Shaitan]

It's off the Palka/Park topic, but I think pinch hitting or pinch running in the 7th is always questionable, as you end up with a lesser bench bat coming back to the plate against the closer two innings later. Shades of Gardy's replacing Thome with young Plouffe all over again.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

One or two bad decisions? No issue. He did recently also pinch run for Sano when there was a runner ahead of him, right? Has that EVER worked for Molly? He seems to love to take his big boppers out of the game late, either for a PR or a PH that can "make contact". 

 

Yeah, this is my biggest problem with Molitor. Even if the hypothetical options were Buxton or Sano standing on 1B, I'd bet at minimum, 95% of the time they'd be standing on the same base when the inning is over. Speed helps on the bases, but there are only a few plays a week that are determined by it. And even so, late in the game the managers and coaches almost always are conservative so as not to have the team run into the last out. If the play is going to be close, Buxton's almost certainly getting the stop sign anyway.

 

The odds that the big bopper will come up again in extra innings is greater than the odds that the speed on the base path will pay off.

[Riverbrian]

I have had plenty of issues with the treatment of Vargas but this is not one of them. Vargas started both games of the doubleheader. Molly thought Escobar had a better chance and I'm ok with Molly using his instincts.

 

My problem will continue to be centered around Vargas being given a chance to earn a MLB job.

[Doomtints]

As of this time:

 

Vargas > Park > Palka.

 

There.

 

Now let's move on.

 

 

As for Molitor, he'll be around. There's no point in calling for his head when the Twins are playing over their heads. Any change like that now results in another 100 loss season.

[howieramone2]

 

Exactly. I'm right with you- the Twins are in a most unenviable position of picking their poison.

 

They clearly have little interest in increasing Vargas's role, Escobar, although occasionally streaky hot, is just above Futility level at the plate overall, and it's highly likely that Park or Palka would fall flat on their face given 200+ PAs.

 

Curious that everyone is ragging on Vargas's lack of production from the right side of the plate as THE REASON for his limited PAs, and yet, over his career here're his splits:

 

Rt-handed- OPS+ 110

Lf-handed- OPS+ 94

 

Regardless of that fact and the clear ML evidence that Vargas is the superior hitter, the Twins still can't even come to the conclusion that Vargas is the best of 4 less than optimal options.

Actually, since he came up from rehab, he's gotten more at bats than any other DH type. That's conclusive enough for me at this point in time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know the rules on doubleheader "democracy". How often do the players have veto power on split doubleheaders?

The players get to vote on doubleheaders when there are something like 3-4 already on the schedule, I believe. I read it awhile back but don't recall the specifics.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It was a one run game with 2 outs, runner on third when Escobar pinch hit. It didn't work out this way, but beyond the close OPS splits against LH, I think Molitor was playing a hunch that Escobar was more likely to put the ball in play, playing for contact and a hit and the run scoring over a more two outcome we're seeing from Vargas.

But with 2 outs, who really cares about contact?  They are more or less equally likely to get a hit, no?  Both have a .250-.251 career AVG.  And with a man on third, any hit scores the run.  Roughly the same OBP too, if you are thinking about prolonging the inning.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But with 2 outs, who really cares about contact?  They are more or less equally likely to get a hit, no?  Both have a .250-.251 career AVG.  And with a man on third, any hit scores the run.  Roughly the same OBP too, if you are thinking about prolonging the inning.

Yeah, this is why I wouldn't have made the move but given that Escobar strikes out slightly less, there's a slightly higher chance he'll put the ball in play and something good will happen.

 

Again, it seemed a bit like shuffling deck chairs but the move wasn't stupid, as some have suggested. It's not the move I would have made but that doesn't automatically make it wrong.

[Linus]

It's not that complicated. Vargas is struggling against lefties right now and Esco is hitting them well. For one AB Molitor figured he had a better chance of getting a base hit with Esco. Vargas played both games so I don't think Molly hates him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another thing worth pointing out is this:

 

In 2017, Escobar has three of his four home runs against LHP.

 

In 2017, Vargas has zero of his five home runs against LHP.

 

In a SSSS, Escobar literally has a .800 OPS advantage over Vargas against LHP (.216 to 1.025).

[yarnivek1972]

Those calling the move defensible seem to be ignoring the fact that the Vargas/Escobar spot came up again in the game and Escobar struck out. Again This time against a RHP. Perhaps Vargas provides a big hit in that spot. Thanks to Molitor's short sightedness, we'll never know.

 

And, just to be clear, it isn't this move specifically that has me calling for Molitor's head. It's one of dozens. Obviously, you wouldn't fire him with the team in first. But I seriously doubt he survives the season based on my consistent belief that this team will go downhill when they start playing better teams. Like the AL East and the GOOD teams in the West.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Those calling the move defensible seem to be ignoring the fact that the Vargas/Escobar spot came up again in the game and Escobar struck out. Again This time against a RHP. Perhaps Vargas provides a big hit in that spot. Thanks to Molitor's short sightedness, we'll never know.

It's hard to call it short-sightedness when the original plate appearance in question had the chance of extending an inning and giving the Twins a lead.

 

This is a situation where I would have done things differently but it's not as if this move was wrong unless you're purely looking at results. And baseball strategy should rarely operate solely on hindsight results.

 

Vargas has 24 plate appearances against lefties this season. He has two singles and one walk. Going with the hotter hand is pretty standard practice when a guy has looked that bad against LHP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's not that complicated. Vargas is struggling against lefties right now and Esco is hitting them well. For one AB Molitor figured he had a better chance of getting a base hit with Esco. Vargas played both games so I don't think Molly hates him.

I agree that I don't think Molitor hates Vargas, but that doesn't make it a good move.

 

And it wasn't just "one AB".  It was only the 7th inning, and there was a fair chance that spot would come up again, and the Royals had already used all of their lefty relievers (other than Travis Wood -- and I would trust any batter against Travis Wood right now ).  Not to mention other substitution opportunities that would be more difficult in the last 2 innings after using a utility hitter to pinch hit for your DH.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Vargas has 24 plate appearances against lefties this season. He has two singles and one walk. Going with the hotter hand is pretty standard practice when a guy has looked that bad against LHP.

It's a .118 BABIP.  Is that real, or just a function of a tiny sample size?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's a .118 BABIP.  Is that real, or just a function of a tiny sample size?

Probably a function of SSS.

 

My point isn't even that the move was "right", only that it was defensible. I've said multiple times that I wouldn't have pinch-hit in that situation.

 

My problem comes from people conflating an opinion with correctness. This was a defensible move. It didn't work out. That's baseball.

 

Inversely, had Escobar hit a homer in that situation, I wouldn't be back-slapping Molitor for the move. It would have been a risk that panned out. That's also baseball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, this is why I wouldn't have made the move but given that Escobar strikes out slightly less, there's a slightly higher chance he'll put the ball in play and something good will happen.

Interesting that Vargas had 3 PA with zero strikeouts in the game already (8 PA without a strikeout overall), and Escobar wound up striking out in both of his PA.  Their 2017 K rates are pretty close thus far.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting that Vargas had 3 PA with zero strikeouts in the game already, and Escobar wound up striking out in both of his PA.  Their 2017 K rates are pretty close thus far.

That's baseball. It's a silly game.

 

At the end of the day, what I care about is whether Molitor played the percentages on any single move. And this move was pretty percentage-neutral. That means I wouldn't have done it myself but can't criticize it too much, either.