Byron Buxton and the Twins Batting Order

[TwinsFan23]

Molitor said today that Buxton won't be hitting in the lead off spot to start the year because "his bat is too valuable". He also said Buxton won't be in the 9 hole. They've been experimenting with him hitting third in the order.

 

What do you guys think about this? Also, what are your predictions for the opening day batting order? What would YOU like the order to look like? 

 

 

[TNTwinsFan]

The kid has some gap and hr power...elite speed...i could see it...just didnt expect it this soon.

[Brandon Warne]

Have said on Twitter multiple times that I just don't see him ever leading off.

 

There's almost no chance that his eye develops alone without him also being a power threat. 

 

Basically, he's more likely to be a .320/.480 guy (OBP/SLG) than a .380/.420 guy. 

 

Or maybe more accurately, he's way more likely to be .340/.460 than .360/.440. If he develops on-base skills, he's a middle of the order stud. 

[Old Twins Cap]

Bring it.

 

People say, he shouldn't hit lead-off because it puts too much pressure on him.

 

I say, hit him third so he understands that the Twins have confidence in his abilities.

 

This makes too much sense.

[TwinsFan23]

 

Have said on Twitter multiple times that I just don't see him ever leading off.

 

There's almost no chance that his eye develops alone without him also being a power threat. 

 

Basically, he's more likely to be a .320/.480 guy (OBP/SLG) than a .380/.420 guy. 

 

Or maybe more accurately, he's way more likely to be .340/.460 than .360/.440. If he develops on-base skills, he's a middle of the order stud. 

 

I've got no problem with him hitting third. I just didn't think there was any way it would happen until he'd had more success at the MLB level. Last September was great, don't get me wrong, but he still K'd like 33% of the time during that time. I know it's only spring training, but he's cut back on the strikeouts quite a bit so far. I'm hoping that can continue.

 

My hopes for Buxton are still very high. I agree with your take on his OBP and SLG. If the bat continues to develop and he can stay HEALTHY, he should be a lot of fun to watch for a long time. As far as the batting order goes, I wouldn't be opposed to something like this (if Buxton truly is going to hit third):

 

1- Mauer (not your prototypical leadoff hitter, but his OBP should look good here)

2- Dozier

3- Buxton

4- Sano

5- Kepler

6- Park (Still hoping he gets back on the 40 man and is the opening day DH)

7- Rosario

8- Castro

9- Polanco

 

Thoughts?

[Brandon Warne]

I'd probably bat Buxton fifth or sixth to start the season. That way he can still be a big part of the offense, but can also run wild with bottom of the order hitters behind him. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still believe Buxton should be at or near the bottom of the order until he shows he can handle MLB pitching for more than a few weeks at a time.

 

If he exits April with a strong showing, begin inching him up the order.

[Respy]

Agree 100% with both Brandon and Brock.  If we have thought that putting him at leadoff was too much pressure, imagine putting him right in the heart of the order!  I'd bat him around 7th and let him work his way up.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I am ok with Buxton third in the order. I would keep Dozier at leadoff and Joe Mauer second. Dozier is comfortable and is highly productive in the leadoff spot and has expressed an interest to stay there.

[USAFChief]

I don't know if this is the year, but I always had hopes of Buxton hitting in the middle of the order rather than the top. I'd much rather he be an extra base hit machine than an on base only guy.

[sthpstm]

 

I'd probably bat Buxton fifth or sixth to start the season. That way he can still be a big part of the offense, but can also run wild with bottom of the order hitters behind him. 

There are a lot of factors to consider. One potential issue with having him hit behind your slow sluggers is if they are on they clog the bases and take away a major tool of his - speed.

But how great a factor is that?

[mikelink45]

I love speed on a team - there is a reason everyone wanted Rickey Henderson on their team despite his hotdog antics.  Speed disrupts the other team - both pitching and defense so wherever Buxton hits I hope he is not faced with a slow runner on base in front of him any more than is necessary.  This lineup is fine except that Mauer does not do well in leading off despite the fact that his OBP would put him there.  I think he has to see the pitcher for a couple batters before he is comfortable stepping in the box. 

[Doomtints]

I think people are misreading Buxton again. The Twins and the rest of us keep doing that with this kid.

 

His SLG might look nice, but it's due to his speed. His 9HR to end the season probably won't happen in a single month again for the rest of his career.

 

His OBP might not look so nice, but that's because he's still a bit lost. As his OBP rises, so will his SLG. Be careful to not read that the wrong way. He's the fastest runner in baseball, not a power bat.

 

Molitor putting him in a power spot in the lineup is more proof that Molitor is unqualified, just as keeping Dozier in the leadoff spot for so long has proved it.

[drjim]

I think people are misreading Buxton again. The Twins and the rest of us keep doing that with this kid.

 

His SLG might look nice, but it's due to his speed. His 9HR to end the season probably won't happen in a single month again for the rest of his career.

 

His OBP might not look so nice, but that's because he's still a bit lost. As his OBP rises, so will his SLG. Be careful to not read that the wrong way. He's the fastest runner in baseball, not a power bat.

 

Molitor putting him in a power spot in the lineup is more proof that Molitor is unqualified, just as keeping Dozier in the leadoff spot for so long has proved it.

I think there's a decent chance everything you said in this post is backwards.

 

I guess we'll see.

[DocBauer]

I like that Monitor has been trying different lineups instead of being rigid in his thinking. And I agree with experimenting with Buxton a bit. Just don't confuse the kid or put too much pressure on him. I agree with lower in the lineup at first. Get him settled and comfortable and then move him up.

[jay]

L Mauer

S Polanco

R Dozier

R Sano

L Kepler

R Buxton

L Rosario

R Park

R Castro

 

Man oh man is there a lot of upside in that lineup, but...

I'm not sure how much the order will really matter this year.

 

Sano, Mauer, Dozier towards the top...

Castro towards the bottom...

and the rest you can make a case to fill in just about anywhere.

[drjim]

FWIW I would go:

Dozier

Mauer

Buxton

Sano

Kepler

Vargas/Park

Rosario

Castro

Polanco

[Kelly Vance]

The fastest guy on the team should bat lead off. Period. Bux batting third and Dozier leading off when he is a power hitter is dumb.  And the idea that lead off puts too much pressure on Bux is nonsense. Batting third is the pressure RBI slot. If the kid can't handle lead off, he sure as hell can't handle batting third.

 

Ancient relic Mauer leading off?  Nope. That means we are not a running team. It is ridiculous

 

Bux 

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Park

Keps

Rosario 

Polanco

Castro

 

This way, Dozier drives in over 100 RBIs and hits fewer solo shots

[jimbo92107]

 

FWIW I would go:

Dozier

Mauer

Buxton

Sano

Kepler

Vargas/Park

Rosario

Castro

Polanco

Agree with drjim. All indications now are that Buxton's minor league power is back, and that is potentially huge. A guy like that belongs somewhere in the first three batters so he gets max at-bats. At #3, he's just ahead of Sano, encouraging the team's primo masher to continue swinging flat to get fat contact as much as possible. Anything Sano hits to the wall has the potential to drive Buxton home, even from first base. This is an explosive batting order. 

[HitInAPinch]

Are we surprised?  Buxton has been swinging for the fences since he was a kid.  Molitor is just facing the facts:  go with a power package and get some OBP with speed in-front of him.

 

My only concern is speed.  Not Buxton's but the guys that may endup in front of him.  I have these images in my head of the firstbase coach holding Buxton at 1st because Grossman hadn't rounded 2nd yet   

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

The fastest guy on the team should bat lead off. Period. Bux batting third and Dozier leading off when he is a power hitter is dumb.  And the idea that lead off puts too much pressure on Bux is nonsense. Batting third is the pressure RBI slot. If the kid can't handle lead off, he sure as hell can't handle batting third.

 

Ancient relic Mauer leading off?  Nope. That means we are not a running team. It is ridiculous

 

Bux 

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Park

Keps

Rosario 

Polanco

Castro

 

This way, Dozier drives in over 100 RBIs and hits fewer solo shots

However, after the 1st inning, you potentially have Buxton coming to bat with Castro on base.  A catcher.  In his career:  5 SB 2 CS.  You'd have a better chance moving Castor up the order behind Park and set up a potential run of Kepler, Rosario and Polanco ahead of Buxton.

[Kelly Vance]

Yeah, I understand having your second best leadoff hitter batting 9th. I sometimes do that on the teams I coach. So Polanco hitting 9th? Or Rosario?  I could see that.

[twinssporto]

Obviously Molitor/coaching staff/F.O. are seeing things from Buxton that excites them.  I wouldn't bat him third to start the season but he could do well in the 5 or 6 hole.  He might need just a little more confidence to step into that #3 hole.

 

I know Molitor/Falvey and TD members have all be waiting anxiously for me to make my recommendation so here it is:

 

Mauer - slap those singles and take those walks all day baby!

Polanco - could be Kepler here too

Dozier - RBI's now climbing

Sano - MASHER!

Buxton - Move up to #3 hole on June 1st

Kepler - Polanco could be plugged in here as well

Park - Big pushing power in the back of lineup

Rosario - Swing away...you're not walking anyway

Castro - Frame up a hit here occasionally

 

P.S.  Molly, I'm sorry I haven't returned your phone calls...got busy at work.  The lineup you wanted me to come up with is listed above.  Let me know a good time for you and Falvey and we can schedule a conference call to go through the rotation and pen options as well.  

 

Thanks!

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

The fastest guy on the team should bat lead off. Period. 

 

It's not 1987 anymore. The two teams that won flags last year have Carlos Santana and Kyle Schwarber leading off.

 

Get on base. That's your only job as a leadoff hitter.

 

There are two things I'd factor into who leads off for me:

 

1. who gets on base most

2. at the end of the year, who do I want getting the most plate appearances on the team

 

No. 2 is why I don't really have a problem with Dozier batting leadoff to end last year. Keep in mind, while we all seem to feel like he led off all year, he didn't really do so until Nunez was traded. Nunez actually led off like 65 times for the Twins last season. 

[Han Joelo]

The more I read about Buxton and his psyche, the more I think putting him third or fifth would actually help him.  Batting him 9th tells him we expect him to suck, and batting him 1st tells him we think he should bunt and run.

 

Bat him third, and let him be who he is supposed to be.

[Brandon Warne]

I think my ideal order right now might be:

 

1. Mauer 1B

2. Polanco SS

3. Dozier 2B

4. Sano 3B

5. Kepler LF

6. Buxton CF

7. Park DH

8. Castro C

9. Rosario RF

[Trov]

The only reason people even think Buxton should lead off is his speed.  Nothing else about him suggest lead off.  He was always going to end up in the third spot as his career progressed so why wait.

[twinssporto]

 

It's not 1987 anymore. The two teams that won flags last year have Carlos Santana and Kyle Schwarber leading off.

 

Get on base. That's your only job as a leadoff hitter.

 

There are two things I'd factor into who leads off for me:

 

1. who gets on base most

2. at the end of the year, who do I want getting the most plate appearances on the team

 

No. 2 is why I don't really have a problem with Dozier batting leadoff to end last year. Keep in mind, while we all seem to feel like he led off all year, he didn't really do so until Nunez was traded. Nunez actually led off like 65 times for the Twins last season. 

I totally agree.  Get on base and either manufacture a run (remember that term?) or get hit through the bags.  That guy the last few years is Mauer.  We should be utilizing that remaining talent to its max.

[spinowner]

I've posted this before but I'll do it again.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

For those who don't want to read the whole article (it's not very long), here's the takeaway:

 

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

 

The last sentence of the excerpt makes it sound like the author thinks that a batting order doesn't really make a lot of difference. I think I disagree, but it would be interesting to see a large sample size of this strategy, like an entire season. The thing to do would be to look at the ratio of runs scored to other measures of batting effectiveness in this type of lineup compared with the traditional approach. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Buxton has looked good this spring, and I have to think that Molly is going to let the 3 spot fly. I'm fine with that for now, but I'd probably have a hook if he struggles. I don't think he will. He's taking very good at bats right now and getting results. You cannot really argue with that, and as long as he continues doing that, the 3 spot makes sense.