Article: Tyler Jay Shifting To The Bullpen (Minor League Notebook)

[Han Joelo]

Hmm. Lots of consternation. I like the decisiveness. I don't see why his ceiling can't be Andrew Miller, seems like that was his role in college. That's a darn valuable asset. I'm sure there were a lot of starting pitchers drafted ahead of Miller.

 

I could care less where he was drafted. It's all hindsight, and in this case we're hindsighting a different regime. Hopefully this is indicative of their scouting acumen, and indicates they will correctly utilize this upcoming draft.

[DaveW]

I can't fault the Twins when there wasn't anybody drafted right after him that did anything at all. It's just not that likely to find a high caliber starter there unless it's a deep draft.

Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier, Brett Cecil....to name a few.

 

Just because Revere has been around 9 years doesn't make him a good or even close to a good player.

 

Juan Castro somehow played 17 years for instance.

Edited March 19, 2017 by DaveW

[Guest]

Great scoop by Seth Stohs!

 

Also, good move by new team leadership to cut bait early on this issue. Previous regime developed an odd stubbornness on insisting players could do things they never did before and overvaluing players accordingly. Jay's draft position two years ago means nothing now. What matters is how to get the most value from him. Good job to not spend another year hoping for a Big Ten reliever to turn into a major league starter.

[Han Joelo]

Miller was the, wait for it, 6th pick. Taken after other starters like Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, and Brandon Morrow. And Longoria.

 

Kershaw, of course, was the very next pick. Man, drafting is tough.

 

Reading through Miller's career bio, it took a long time before he was put in the bullpen permanently. Maybe someone could have expedited that decision and hastened his ascendency to elitedom.

 

Anyway, looking at that draft, Lincecum and Scherzer were taken shortly after as well. So was Kasey Kiker. Jay isn't Miller yet, but he's not ever going to be Kershaw either. In conclusion, best of luck Tyler. I look forward to watching you put out hundreds of fires over the next few years.

[Guest]

Hmm. Lots of consternation. I like the decisiveness. I don't see why his ceiling can't be Andrew Miller, seems like that was his role in college. That's a darn valuable asset. I'm sure there were a lot of starting pitchers drafted ahead of Miller.

I could care less where he was drafted. It's all hindsight, and in this case we're hindsighting a different regime. Hopefully this is indicative of their scouting acumen, and indicates they will correctly utilize this upcoming draft.

Andrew Miller was a highly rated college starter in a power conference. Jay was a reliever in the Big Ten, which is not a premier conference. He's also one of the best at what he does, at least over the last few years. Comparing anyone to Miller is more hope than projection.

 

As an aside, all thirty teams would rather have the guy selected right after Miller.

[DaveW]

The problem is a lot of the old regime is still around. I was sitting behind home plate the other day for a Twins ST game against team USA, everyone surrounding us was a scout. The guy 4 seats down? Mike Radcliff, like honestly, I'm not sure he should be with the team at this stage, especially in an important facet. He had a really really really nice run, and is a legend for this club no doubt, but at some point you need fresh blood and fresh eyes IMO. Especially after so many down years.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Miller was the, wait for it, 6th pick. Taken after other starters like Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, and Brandon Morrow. And Longoria.

Kershaw, of course, was the very next pick. Man, drafting is tough.

Reading through Miller's career bio, it took a long time before he was put in the bullpen permanently. Maybe someone could have expedited that decision and hastened his ascendency to elitedom.

Anyway, looking at that draft, Lincecum and Scherzer were taken shortly after as well. So was Kasey Kiker. Jay isn't Miller yet, but he's not ever going to be Kershaw either. In conclusion, best of luck Tyler. I look forward to watching you put out hundreds of fires over the next few years.

 

The difference is Miller was a great starter in college and was expected to stay a starter. That he fell back to being an elite reliever is just a lucky break at salvaging value. If he'd been a college reliever that was expected to stay a reliever then I doubt he'd have gone at #6, and Detroit fans probably wouldn't have been too happy if he had.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Was he really that guy though? I honestly don't remember him being thought of as a steal at #6. I seem to recall him being rated in the mid-teens, behind a few guys that went after him.

 

Followup question: how often does a a college reliever become a frontline rotation piece? Common or a longshot?

i recall the hype was that I was a bit of a reach

[Taildragger8791]

 

i recall the hype was that I was a bit of a reach

 

Don't sell yourself short. I think you were appropriately valued all along.

[gunnarthor]

Wow. Disappointing news to come back to.

[zchrz]

His pick position is sunk cost at this point, I like the idea of fast tracking him in the role he knows if this front office deems that is the best move.  He has some nasty stuff that is going to play way up in the pen.

 

Falveyco was brought in to overhaul the pitching program, I am willing and excited to see the results of a new modern approach in this system.

 

TR thought he had an ace up his sleeve drafting big college bullpen arms minus the wear and tear of being a starter.  I don't think its going to be real shocking if that doesn't amount to mlb starters. 

[dougd]

Chris Sale's first 80 appearances in the major leagues were as a relief pitcher, tho he spent almost no time in the minors. It is not impossible that Jay will still be a starter at some point. 

[Kwak]

 

Well he's signed this year so he'll at least end up at 9 years in the majors. I think he'll get a few more as long as his speed holds up.

I can't fault the Twins when there wasn't anybody drafted right after him that did anything at all. It's just not that likely to find a high caliber starter there unless it's a deep draft.

Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton was very highly touted as an OF and possible slugger (which he became).  The Twins looks for "toolsy" (speed, defense, OBP) and draft that guy. 

[old nurse]

 

The point isn't that it's not a nice piece to have, but not with the 6th pick in the draft. That's where you should be finding your heart of the order and top of the rotation, not a new version of Norm Charlton.

In the last 10 drafts with picks 4-8  there were 27 pitchers taken. I guess NOBODY got your memo.

 

[old nurse]

 

Yeah, god forbid we criticize a team that has exactly one good first round pick in the last 10 or so years, and a team that has been the worst team in baseball overall the last six years. Especially when most people at the time pointed out that drafting a college reliever that high was a very very very questionable decision.

Twins were in the middle for drafting in the first round

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

[beckmt]

Hope Jay is up soon, and expect he will be.  This could be the start of a power bullpen(like Cleveland only maybe better/deeper).  Royals won with this combination, Twins might be much better with it also.  It only subtracts one pitcher from the starter pool, and the Twins have several in that pool now, along with the bullpen.

[Comrade Bork]

Id be very curious to hear how Terry Ryan is being graded in the minds of falvey and Levine.

[Otwins]

March is too early for negative energy.  I am thinking positive. He could be a very good left handed reliever.  Rather see him get the innings than Breslow.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Id be very curious to hear how Terry Ryan is being graded in the minds of falvey and Levine.

 

In a word....poorly.  As he should be by just about everyone.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Chris Sale's first 80 appearances in the major leagues were as a relief pitcher, tho he spent almost no time in the minors. It is not impossible that Jay will still be a starter at some point. 

 

I'm not sure this should make people feel good.  So he just has to be Chris Sale and we'll be alright?

 

We're setting some lofty standards for Tyler Jay to not bust here.

[Vanimal46]

Chris Sale's first 80 appearances in the major leagues were as a relief pitcher, tho he spent almost no time in the minors. It is not impossible that Jay will still be a starter at some point.

Sale was also a college starter and was expected to be a starter.

 

Didn't remember this until I just looked it up. They promoted him to the majors 2 months after drafting him... That's insane.

[jud6312]

 

In the last 10 drafts with picks 4-8  there were 27 pitchers taken. I guess NOBODY got your memo.

What are you even talking about? It appears you're either confused, or you didn't bother to read my post.

 

I mentioned that you should be trying to fill the top of your rotation when drafting that high. If you think those 27 pitchers were drafted that high with eyes toward solidifying the bullpen, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you.

[jud6312]

 

March is too early for negative energy.  I am thinking positive. He could be a very good left handed reliever.  Rather see him get the innings than Breslow.

The negative energy started after they kept bringing in washed up vets after inking the king of pitch framing.

[jud6312]

 

Sale was also a college starter and was expected to be a starter.
 

Stop, you're ruining their narrative for why this isn't a permanent move.

[old nurse]

 

I'm not sure this should make people feel good.  So he just has to be Chris Sale and we'll be alright?

 

We're setting some lofty standards for Tyler Jay to not bust here.

The guy on sangraphs stated  to average 1.5 WAR per year makes a pick successful  The bust rate was over 60% for top 10 picks.

[Han Joelo]

This is interesting to look at. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Major_League_Baseball_draft

 

In that draft, 27 of 44 first round picks were pitchers, presumably drafted with the intention of making the starters. Kershaw, lincecum, Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy are the only ones that panned out as starters. A few had/have decent relief careers, maybe half.

 

The Twins had at best a 50% chance of getting a MLB pitcher at all with the pick. I think Jay will be that. They can't all be Kershaw. What fun would that be?

[tobi0040]

I would want to understand why. I see three reasons:

 

They wanted him up quicker

 

They don't think he will ever be healthy as a starter

 

They think he would either be a good closer or a 4-5 starter (a more dominant reliever than starter).

 

If they made this decision so he could be up soon I think it is really foolish. We aren't a good reliever away from contention.

 

The other two, I guess I don't know if we have enough information to make this decision and I am not sure if we had to make this decision yet. In my novice opinion, a 3.10 ERA with a k per inning seems like a decent first year transition to starting. And a neck injury doesn't seem like one you would get starting vs relieving.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The guy on sangraphs stated  to average 1.5 WAR per year makes a pick successful  The bust rate was over 60% for top 10 picks.

Just because many picks flop doesnt mean criticism isnt warranted.

[twinsfanstreif]

This was my fear in drafting Jay at the time. I want to say I would've drafted Benintendi but I was only focused on pitchers (a bit of a warning in drafting for need) and was fully on board with Fulmer which has been a bit of a mixed bag so far. I guess the question is this, is it better to get a #3 or #4 starter or a shut down closer? Definitely disappointing for a #6 overall pick though

[HitInAPinch]

LEN3 posted an article about Jay this morning.  

 

What it's really all about is:

 

1.  Innings

2.  Fast Track to MLB

 

Not enough of the first, Fast Track = RP.

 

And, there's also this [from the article]:

 

"There's another lefthander in camp who is rehabbing from shoulder surgery, and the process has been meticulously slow. His last outing, he touched 78 mph on the gun. There is no telling when he will be able to help the Twins. He's in the last year of his contract, making 2017 possibly his swan song."

 

So, I guess it's really about 3 things.....

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/Twins_Insider/