Trevor May will be a Starter

[Loosey]

 

I don't want him back in AAA but if the new front office believes Neil Allen's --**alleged**-- assessment that there was some kind of organizational negligence in pitching development, I could see lots of young pitchers repeating or going back a level to adjust to what the new guys want them to do.

 

And frankly, if someone DOES happen to have an idea as to why so many of the pitchers are struggling, I'm more than willing to give them a shot to fix it, even if it's not the via the method I'd like; that is learning at the MLB level.

You would assume the best coaches are in the big leagues.  So I personally want anyone that is about ready and has the potential to be a difference maker to take their lumps in the big leagues, especially at the time the team isn't likely going to be contending for anything.  By the time they might have a shot at post season play the "young" guys might be over their learning curves and make a positive difference.  Which is why I would say if they need to, have Berrios start a month or two in the bullpen for the Twins.  He gets Major League coaching, the team can pick its spots to pitch him and he gets real major league experience.  Additionally, if he goes out and pitches 1.2 innings and gives up three runs they can run him back out there 2 days later to give him another shot so he doesn't need to sit there for 5 days thinking about his short start.  

 

Or alternatively he dominates during the spring and shows the command he used to have and makes the rotation.  Either way don't "force" him into the rotation.

[Tomj14]

A few positive spins on the projected rotation?

1] a pair of young arms in Berrios and May.
2] I don't care what Nolasco does going forward. He was a bad fit. I'don't rather have Santiago, and his numbers, and the way he finished his 2016.
3] I've seen the Twins put out worse rotations, lacking any growth potential, than this one.

 

Ages: May (27), Santiago (29), Hughes (30), Gibson(29)

Career Starts/Games: May (102/25), Santiago (174/116), Hughes (253/200), Gibson(98/98)

 

I am not saying May shouldn't be our 4th starter, just pointing out that he isn't exactly young or proven yet.  I think that Santiago and Gibson have proven they are legit 4/5 starters. So Santana pitchers like a 2, Berrios and/somebody else pitches like a 2, and May pitches like a 3 we should be OK in the starter roles.

I also agree with other it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring up Gonzo or Meija to pitch a game now and then to get some seasoning instead of calling them up just when somebody gets hurt. (less pressure)

[mazeville]

<--- Not holding his breath that Trevor May will be a starter.

[laloesch]

 

Personally I don't care if Berrios starts with the big club or in AAA. 

 

I also don't have a strong opinion on which 5 should make up our rotation on opening day. I'd like to see everybody considered for the rotation and this includes not only May but Rogers and Duffey along with the prospects and pick your best and let's see what happens with the ole' short leash. 

 

Because... I do feel very strongly that there should be extreme intolerance for poor pitching performances. If we go through another year with Plus 5 ERA's in the rotation while the decision makers wait for them to straighten out.... That's when I will become very disappointed.

 

We did that last year.

 

This year... it's time to perform or get tossed into the bullpen or out the door. 

 

The starting pitchers have their framing catcher.... We have an emerging offense... It's time to show you belong in the bigs. I know it can be tricky roster management but it has to happen... the entire rotation besides Santana put in a full season of "I don't belong here numbers"... There shouldn't be another season of that. 

 

Pitch Well or Be Re-Assigned Elsewhere. That should be the 2017 team slogan. Who wants to make up T-Shirts? 

 

Tyler Duffey and Kyle Gibson each had 25-26 starts (8 "quality starts"). Ricky Nolasco had another atrocious season.  In 21 starts (10 quality) he had a 5+ era.  Hector Santiago and Tommy Milone COMBINED for 23 starts (6 "quality) and a 5+ era.  Phil Hughes was injured for most of the season and only made 11 starts, (6 quality).

 

In summary the Twins had a HORRENDOUS starting rotation last year.  Pretty much everything that could go wrong did go wrong with the exception of Ervin Santana's season.  Scary thing is we essentially have the same rotation minus Nolasco and Milone.  May, Berrios and Mejia are the wild cards.  Everyone should be on a short leash with the exception of Santana. 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

You would assume the best coaches are in the big leagues.  So I personally want anyone that is about ready and has the potential to be a difference maker to take their lumps in the big leagues, especially at the time the team isn't likely going to be contending for anything.  

 

That had(s) always been my position, but the assumption I am currently going to make is that the new leadership has a solid game plan for developing young pitching. Perhaps they don't but they're getting the benefit of the doubt from me since I long ago gave up on the idea that the old leadership had strong vision when it came to pitchers and I desperately wanted a change. Now that I got the change I'll give some slack before I start making judgments.

[Vanimal46]

 

My biggest concern in all of this is the manager. This is clearly a rebuilding season. The smart move would be to take the younger guys and give them a chance so you can see what you have going forward. That would mean that Gibson,May and Berrios are in the rotation. I personally think Duffy belongs in the bullpen  so that is where I would put him. 

 

This may not give us the best chance to win, however, particularly early in the season. Given that this is Molitor's last year on his contract,  I'm afraid that he is going to want to use veterans  to try to squeeze out a few more wins and keep his job. That is his tendency anyway and it may be exacerbated by his contract situation. I certainly would not want to give him an extension to guard against this, so that puts the organization in a quandary. Can you trust Molitor to go with a young team and endure  the pain and losing when he has to worry so much about his own job? My thought is perhaps the organization should tell him that even if he's not back as the manager next year (or fired during this year) that there is another job for him in the organization that pays comparably so his focus on what's good for the organization in the long run. I'm afraid that if you don't do that  the rotation will include Santana, Hughes, Santiago, Vogelsong and Gibson.

This is a very real and legitimate concern. I hope they go with your idea and give Molitor some reassurance that he could remain with the organization in another role. Otherwise he very well could chase a few more wins to add to his resume. 

As we've seen time and time again, once you're deemed a good guy in the organization, you have a golden ticket for positions in the front office. Hell, give us a year to grieve and the thought of bringing back TR in some role will look appealing. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

 the thought of bringing back TR in some role will look appealing. 

You spelled 'appalling' wrong. Stop sucking up to North with your extra vowels. 

[USAFChief]

 

You spelled 'appalling' wrong. Stop currying favour with North with your extra vowels. 

ftfy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Do you? Pitchers blow out arms all the time.  Would you rather him use up his live bullets in AAA than MLB?

 

To me, this is a flawed argument. While I certainly agree that the risk of injury for pitchers is much higher, that shouldn't be an reason in my opinion to bring a guy up before he's ready. What's the point in bringing him up early to see him struggle only to blow said arm out.  Now he wasted a bunch of his service time on the getting shelled and then followed on the DL. 

 

I'd add that confidence (or a lack of it) can certainly contribute to those injuries as well, particularly if the kid thinks he needs to throw every pitch at 120 MPH, and you start losing lots of it when you get shelled repeatedly. I'm not pretending these kids are fragile as flowers, but I think you have to recognize the possibility. I suspect most of us have been overwhelmed at our jobs at one point or another, and in the process we've made mistakes. It's really not that much different.

 

I don't have a problem bringing Jose up if the FO thinks he's ready for another try.  I know this... Last year, he was NOT ready. I'm not convinced that an offseason is all he needs. If it is, great.  But one of the big reasons I suspect Santiago was tendered was b/c the front office is not planning on going north with Berrios this spring.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I do think the value of a starter over a reliever is overstated in the short term, such as half a season or less. This is especially true when he was not a clear upgrade over a handful of starts. Certainly massively more upside, but not clear he would have outperformed the rest of the year. Development is nice, but winning is even better.

 

The blunder, as stated, was putting him back in the bullpen in 2016, or at the very least not moving him to rotation soon after it was evident it was a lost season (so, week 2).

 

If I remember right (and I could be wrong), May had the most WAR in the rotation when he was demoted. You may be right that the value is overstated in the short term, but I don't think he was the 5th best starter on that team when he got banished to the pen.

 

Now you could definitely argue that some time in the pen would be beneficial to his development (St. Louis loves to do this with their pitchers if I remember correctly), and perhaps that came into play here.... but May was pitching quite well at the time, and I'm not sure that helped us win more. From here, it sure looked like he got moved b/c he was the low man.

[Mr. Brooks]

You're right I was talking about Berrios. My bad, didn't think he reached 1 year service time yet.

1 year service time isn't the threshold for rookie status in the MLB.

50 innings pitched or 45 days of service time, whichever comes first.

 

If they set the bar at 1 year service time, then every player would get 2 shots at ROY, since it's rare for a rookie to come up on opening day.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't want him back in AAA but if the new front office believes Neil Allen's --**alleged**-- assessment that there was some kind of organizational negligence in pitching development, I could see lots of young pitchers repeating or going back a level to adjust to what the new guys want them to do.

 

And frankly, if someone DOES happen to have an idea as to why so many of the pitchers are struggling, I'm more than willing to give them a shot to fix it, even if it's not the via the method I'd like; that is learning at the MLB level.

has there been sweeping Twins affiliate pitching coach changes that I missed?

[jimmer]

 

You're right I was talking about Berrios. My bad, didn't think he reached 1 year service time yet. 

.074 (but I think it counts as 1 year :-)

[jimmer]

 

<--- Not holding his breath that Trevor May will be a starter.

yeah, me neither. but hopeful.

[h2oface]

Hughes as horrible pitcher. He has been in mlb since 2007. 63 out of 806 starters in accumulated WAR over that time period. To avoid the cherry picking name he is ranked 257 out of 806 starters in fip. In 52 place in wins as a starter. If you think he has given up more home runs than any good pitcher shoud, Shields, Hammel, Hamels,, Cain, King Felix, Verlander as well as a few more notable Cy Young winners have given up more HR than Hughes over that time period. So if Hughes is horrible, what does that make over 400 other starters

How horrible in April becomes a horrible pitcher is also beyond me. Yikes.

[Riverbrian]

 

 So if  Hughes is horrible, what does that make over 400 other starters

 

Ghastly? 

Atrocious? 

Horrible-er? 

 

Tough question and I do better with Multiple choice

 

[Loosey]

 

That had(s) always been my position, but the assumption I am currently going to make is that the new leadership has a solid game plan for developing young pitching. Perhaps they don't but they're getting the benefit of the doubt from me since I long ago gave up on the idea that the old leadership had strong vision when it came to pitchers and I desperately wanted a change. Now that I got the change I'll give some slack before I start making judgments.

I am in the same boat as you with hoping their is a game plan for pitching.  However, I don't envision that happening over night.  Maybe with someone like Tyler Jay or Kohl Stewart I can see taking the time to "re-develop" them into quality major league starters, but with Berrios they don't have time to fix the process.  They started his clock and it is now ticking.

[alarp33]

 

To me, this is a flawed argument. While I certainly agree that the risk of injury for pitchers is much higher, that shouldn't be an reason in my opinion to bring a guy up before he's ready. What's the point in bringing him up early to see him struggle only to blow said arm out.  Now he wasted a bunch of his service time on the getting shelled and then followed on the DL. 

 

I'd add that confidence (or a lack of it) can certainly contribute to those injuries as well, particularly if the kid thinks he needs to throw every pitch at 120 MPH, and you start losing lots of it when you get shelled repeatedly. I'm not pretending these kids are fragile as flowers, but I think you have to recognize the possibility. I suspect most of us have been overwhelmed at our jobs at one point or another, and in the process we've made mistakes. It's really not that much different.

 

I don't have a problem bringing Jose up if the FO thinks he's ready for another try.  I know this... Last year, he was NOT ready. I'm not convinced that an offseason is all he needs. If it is, great.  But one of the big reasons I suspect Santiago was tendered was b/c the front office is not planning on going north with Berrios this spring.

 

Well he's thrown nearly 200 innings in AAA... if he's not ready now, its possible he might never be.  I have honestly no idea, but how many pitchers that throw say, 300+ innings (if you leave him down there until June) in AAA ever end up having much big league success?

[Aaron Cross]

Another player article from the Star Tribune:  Trevor May will be a Twins starter.  So saith new Twins Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-trevor-may-both-hope-his-relief-days-behind-him/412065543/

 

Really hope so.  May's body just can't handle RP work.

Best news i heard all day. Never agreed with it from day one. Erv came back from suspension, Pelfrey was the logical choice to go to bullpen or get traded. If they needed bullpen help at the time, ryan should have gone out and acquired it! Not by stunting the career of May. Terrible, awful decision by Ryan.

[Aaron Cross]

I didn't love the decision to put May in the pen in 2015 but I understood the reasoning. The Twins were contending and they badly needed bullpen arms.

 

But there was no excuse for 2016 to happen. I'm glad to see May going into Spring Training as a starter.

I honestly could not even understand it. Not considering Pelfrey was the one who got to stay. Regardless of how well Pelfrey had pitched to that point, he had no business taking a spot from May. One of the worst decisions of Ryan's tenure. Needed bullpen help? Acquire it. Don't stunt a young flame thrower's career.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I honestly could not even understand it. Not considering Pelfrey was the one who got to stay. Regardless of how well Pelfrey had pitched to that point, he had no business taking a spot from May. One of the worst decisions of Ryan's tenure. Needed bullpen help? Acquire it. Don't stunt a young flame thrower's career.

I believe Falvey and Levine are attempting to address the 'burn out' issue.  They're looking for a couple veteran relievers, on 1 year contracts, to eat some innings.  Currently mentioned are Righthander Joe Blanton and lefthander Boone Logan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well he's thrown nearly 200 innings in AAA... if he's not ready now, its possible he might never be.  I have honestly no idea, but how many pitchers that throw say, 300+ innings (if you leave him down there until June) in AAA ever end up having much big league success?

 

I understand that.  The problem is that he clearly wasn't ready when he got the call. Perhaps his issues were mental, in which case he probably needs to be in MLB, but I'm guessing Berrios, like many others before him, was succeeding purely on talent and not necessarily on what was needed to get MLB hitters out.... working on some of those things would be beneficial.

 

I'd add that most pitchers his age aren't even in AAA yet, so I wouldn't put too much stock in the number of innings thrown there. He needs to work on some things.

 

That said, I'd prefer him in the rotation to Santiago any day of the week, but I think right now that Berrios is probably the first guy to get called up when someone gets hurt.

[DaveW]

Santiago shouldn't even be on this roster, what a waste of money and a roster spot.

[lukeduke1980]

 

I've heard him say that and it's certainly possible, but I'm a little skeptical it was from relieving and not just pitching. Pitchers get hurt.

And even if that is the cause, Twins wouldn't have known that in 2015.

I'm another not a doctor guy, but I believe the injuries were from throwing harder out of the pen, straining his back. He would throw harder when put in relief, and even harder when in a jam.  

 

To me that's another representation of total system failure - the pitcher not knowing his limits, and coaches/trainers not recognizing his strenuous delivery and working to correct it.

[drjim]

 

I'm another not a doctor guy, but I believe the injuries were from throwing harder out of the pen, straining his back. He would throw harder when put in relief, and even harder when in a jam.  

 

To me that's another representation of total system failure - the pitcher not knowing his limits, and coaches/trainers not recognizing his strenuous delivery and working to correct it.

 

Does this imply he wouldn't throw hard to get out of jams when he was a starter?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Santiago shouldn't even be on this roster, what a waste of money and a roster spot.

 

While I am hoping for great things for Gibson this year, it is merely hope.

Santiago is younger than Gibson and has had a more productive career. His 'change of scenery' last year was terrible, but we should look at his body of work.

I am not under the impression that the Twins would have spent the money on someone better.

 

So I'm also 'hoping' good things for Santiago as well.

[laloesch]

 

While I am hoping for great things for Gibson this year, it is merely hope.

Santiago is younger than Gibson and has had a more productive career. His 'change of scenery' last year was terrible, but we should look at his body of work.

I am not under the impression that the Twins would have spent the money on someone better.

 

So I'm also 'hoping' good things for Santiago as well.

 

I look at Gibson and Santiago as being in the same boat.  Santiago has had a better career so far while Gibson has had short spurts of competency followed by long stretches of mediocrity and utter futility such as 2016.  I for one would not miss either one if we had better options available.  Hopefully this season May and Berrios step up and make these guys surplus.  I'm not holding my breath that happens though.  

 

Minus Milone and Nolasco we have the same rotation this season that we ended last year with.  The wild card is Hughes and i'm not expecting much from him at this point.  

[Mr. Brooks]

While I am hoping for great things for Gibson this year, it is merely hope.

Santiago is younger than Gibson and has had a more productive career. His 'change of scenery' last year was terrible, but we should look at his body of work.

I am not under the impression that the Twins would have spent the money on someone better.

 

So I'm also 'hoping' good things for Santiago as well.

But it's looking like Santiago will get his starts at the expense of Berrios, not Gibson.

 

I don't care if they pocket the money if that means Berrios is pitching here.

[Willihammer]

 

But it's looking like Santiago will get his starts at the expense of Berrios, not Gibson.

I don't care if they pocket the money if that means Berrios is pitching here.

The proclamation that May will start, when we know the manager loves him in the pen, indicates that Falvine are taking these kinds of personnel decisions out of the hands of Molitor. (God, if Pohlad had just let them start with a clean slate at manager maybe we would see a stronger push for contention out the gate.) So maybe they won't let Berrios be blocked either, or at least, not for very long, assuming he crushes in AAA again.

[Willihammer]

With May slated to start, what does the pitching picture look like.

Maybe 

 

1. Santana

2. Santiago

3. Gibson

4. Hughes

5. May

 

Haley

Pressly

Rogers*

Chargois

Kintzler

Perkins*

Graham

 

?