Article: Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier

[Seth Stohs]

This afternoon, KSTP and 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson provided a very interesting update on the Brian Dozier trade discussions. The Dodgers are still in, but now we hear that the St. Louis Cardinals are 'very much in' on Dozier too. What could it mean?

 

While it's no surprise that the Dodgers are still in it heavily, the Cardinals being 'very in it" is new information.

 

So immediately the thoughts jump to... Who do the Cardinals have that might entice the Twins?

 

A quick look at the Baseball America Top 100 Midseason Prospects list provides some insight.

 

For a little background information, in that midseason ranking, Jose Berrios ranked #20 and Jose De Leon ranked #25. Here are the Cardinals prospects who are among the Top 100:

 

#2 - RHP Anthony Reyes

#75 - RHP Luke Weaver

#88 - RHP Jack Flaherty

#89 - OF Harrison Bader

 

 

Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver were called up to the Cardinals on the same day. Reyes went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 games (including five starts). In 46 innings, he walked 23 and struck out 52. In 14 starts at AAA Memphis, he went 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA (ah the joys of the International League). In 65.1 innings, he walked 32, but he struck out a remarkable 93! (Note - my assumption is that Reyes is in about the same category as Julio Urias, likely unavailable.)

 

Luke Weaver came up and made nine appearances (8 starts). He went 1-4 with a 5.70 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. In 36 innings, he walked 12 and struck out 45. He went 6-3 with a 1.70 ERA in 12 starts in AA before making just one start at AAA before his big league promotion.

 

Reyes is 22-years-old and signed with St. Louis in 2012 as an 17-year-old. Reyes throws really, really hard (upper-90s) and has a sharp slider.

 

The 23-year-old Weaver was the Cardinals' first-round pick in 2014 (27th overall) out of Florida State. Weaver is the more polished pitcher, which means he has more control. His upside obviously isn't quite as high but he will almost certainly be a mid-rotation starter with a chance to be something more.

 

Jack Flaherty was the Cardinals' supplemental first-round pick in 2014 (34th overall) out of high school in California. He went 5-9 for Palm Beach as a 20-year-old this past year. Obviously he's a little further out, but the upside is there.

 

Harrison Bader is a right-handed hitting outfielder who was the Cardinals' third-round pick in 2015 out of Florida. He split the 2016 season between AA and AAA. In 82 AA games, he hit .283/.354/.497 (.851) with 12 doubles, four triples and 16 home runs. He moved up to AAA and played in 49 games. He hit .231/.298/.354 (.652) with seven doubles, a triple and three home runs. He's likely a year away, but there is some power potential there.

 

There would certainly be more to any such deal that just one (or maybe two?) of the above, but these would be the headliners.

 

The Cardinals have second baseman Kolton Wong - who the Twins drafted in the 16th round in 2008 out of high school - signed for four years and $24.25 million with an option for 2021). Maybe he is part of the return as well.

 

The Cardinals acquired Jedd Gyorko from the Padres a year ago. He had been pretty much awful for a couple of years. He went to St. Louis and hit 30 home runs. He's signed for the next three years at $29 million. He played in 128 games, but no more than 46 games at any one of the four infield positions. So, they could still have both on a roster.

 

The Giants have Joe Panik (a 2015 All-Star) as their second baseman, so either Panik or Dozier would likely move to third base. Eduardo Nunez is probably the incumbent at third base.

 

The Nationals have Daniel Murphy at second base. Now, he could move to first base, but Ryan Zimmerman still has a lot of money owed and that's about the only position he can play.

 

It is certainly good to hear some more specifics on teams that might have interest in Dozier. Hearing that the Cardinals might be one of those teams is very intriguing because they have Reyes and Weaver, two very good pitching prospects, which would push the Dodgers - possibly - to offer more.

 

What are your thoughts on the rumors?

 

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[bluechipper]

Luke Weaver would be a nice headliner in a deal, especially if Alex Reyes is considered untouchable. It's definitely good to hear there's competition for the Dodgers to get Dozier.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, at this point, I don't really care about the specifics... I just know that there is at least a second team to drive up the asking price. The Twins are going to get a huge haul!!

[bluechipper]

I don't really see the match with the Giants. Their minor league system looks pretty bare, and I don't see anyone on the MLB roster that would make sense in a trade either. And Joe Panik doesn't look like his bat would profile well at third. 

[nytwinsfan]

Hell yeah!  As Seth says, a second team driving up the price is fantastic. Merry Christmas!

[arm18]

Wacha, Wong, Reyes, Rosenthal for dozier, gibson.

[DaveW]

I'd take Nationals and Giants interest with a pound of salt.

 

Cards could help drive up the cost. Which is nice, this could get the Dodgers to give up the third piece the Twins want!

[nytwinsfan]

Can't imagine the Cardinals will deal Reyes. If they would, you'd have to consider doing that almost straight up, no?

 

Fwiw, Weaver's FIP was 4.33 and his xFIP was 3.34 during his 36.1 major-league innings last year. And that's after having only one start at AAA and basically jumping right from AA to the majors. There is no reason to be down on him because of his short stint in the majors last year.

 

Three other prospects I'd be interested in include Carson Kelly (a 22-yo catching prospect with very good defensive tools and the chance to be a good hitter as well), Sandy Alcantara, a 21-yo Dominican fireballer (96-101 mph fb), the signs of a decent changeup, but lagging breaking ball and control -- obviously high upside, although a long way off. He's the kind of project Falvey might love to try to mold into a future ace and Dakota Hudson - great stuff, and is a definite great reliever prospect, but with a chance to start - kind of like a Right-handed, slightly less heralded Tyler Jay.

 

I'd consider trading Dozier for

1. Weaver

2. Bader 

3. Kelly

4. Hudson

5. Alcantara

 

If the Cardinals offered only two of the last three, I'd consider it. 

Again, though, the main point is to drive up the price vis a vis the Dodgers.

[Thrylos]

I just hope that the Twins do the deal here.  C Carson Kelly would be a great return from the Cardinals.  If the Twins can get Weaver and Kelly plus a C prospect, like Sandy Alcantara, might be better than what the Dodgers can offer without Urias.

 

Interesting stuff...

[Trevor0333]

I think it means the Cardinals are very much intent on driving up the price on the Dodgers.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I am not convinced the Twins are going to deal Dozier this offseason. It seems Falvey & Levine LLC are content rolling with Dozier at the start of 2017 and maybe dealing him at the deadline depending on how the season is going. This is my gut feeling.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I am not convinced the Twins are going to deal Dozier this offseason. It seems Falvey & Levine LLC are content rolling with Dozier at the start of 2017 and maybe dealing him at the deadline depending on how the season is going. This is my gut feeling.

I hope you are wrong. He isn't going to be more valuable at the deadline than he is now.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think it means the Cardinals are very much intent on driving up the price on the Dodgers.

how long of a view does trade competition see? I mean to have a strategy that involves a competitor acquire a top end 30-40 home run second baseman so they can deplete their roster 2+ years in the future has to be a long roi.

[Taildragger8791]

how long of a view does trade competition see? I mean to have a strategy that involves a competitor acquire a top end 30-40 home run second baseman so they can deplete their roster 2+ years in the future has to be a long roi.

 

It doesn't cost the Cards anything to negotiate and drive up the price, so ROI isn't a factor. The point is to prevent the Dodgers from getting that 40 HR 2B on the cheap.

[pierre75275]

I don't understand why people think that the Twins would want Kolton Wong. With all the options the Twins have I can't understand why they would want Wong.

[KirbyHawk75]

No offense, but has Doogie ever been correct in his life?  

[Cory Engelhardt]

Weaver, Alcantara and Delvin Perez is a great offer. Is that crazy from the cardinals side?

[DaveW]

Wong is terrible. The more and more I think on this the more I think that this is 100% the Twins spinning things (not a bad thing)

 

I just don't see the Cards parting with an elite enough package to top DeLeon and Alvarez personally.

 

Cards Nats Mets Giants would all love to have dozier of course, none will give up the pieces though most likely.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I don't understand why people think that the Twins would want Kolton Wong. With all the options the Twins have I can't understand why they would want Wong.

 

Agreed, unless they think (1) they think they can flip him for value (I'm skeptical) or (2) they think Polanco can really play SS more long-term (aslo skeptical).

[nytwinsfan]

 

Wong is terrible. The more and more I think on this the more I think that this is 100% the Twins spinning things (not a bad thing)

I just don't see the Cards parting with an elite enough package to top DeLeon and Alvarez personally.

Cards Nats Mets Giants would all love to have dozier of course, none will give up the pieces though most likely.

Wong isn't terrible Dave. He's just incredibly average. Last year his power went down a bit, but he almost doubled his walk rate and his K% decreased slightly.  And his defense is above average. He's a perfectly reasonable 2 to 2.5 WAR Second Basemen. Although its not clear where he would fit for the Twins given Polanco. More likely, the Twins would try to flip him. And anyway, its not clear the Twins would get/want Wong back.

 

That being said, I agree that the Dodgers remain the most likely destination for Dozier. 

Edited December 27, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[shs_59]

Reyes is untouchable

 

make it Dozier + Pressley for De Leon De Jong, Cahoun and one other

 

or

 

Dozier + Tonkin for Weaver, Jack Flaherty , Kolten Wong and Magneirus sierra

[Old Twins Cap]

Falvey and Levine find a good help-mate in Woolfson.  Put that out on Twitter, up the heat on the Dodgers.

 

Likelihood that any of this is true?   Pretty low.

 

But, gotta like the new guys' moxie.  Use whatever you got to get the best deal, and journalists are certainly a willing and low-cost alternative.

[DJSim22]

 

Wong is terrible. The more and more I think on this the more I think that this is 100% the Twins spinning things (not a bad thing)

I just don't see the Cards parting with an elite enough package to top DeLeon and Alvarez personally.

Cards Nats Mets Giants would all love to have dozier of course, none will give up the pieces though most likely.

 

Wong is fine defensively and did not have his best year last year.  He's not Dozier, but I wouldn't call him terrible either.  If you want a better defense, he is an upgrade imo.  Not sure what the metrics say,.

[DJSim22]

 

Reyes is untouchable

 

make it Dozier + Pressley for De Leon De Jong, Cahoun and one other

 

or

 

Dozier + Tonkin for Weaver, Jack Flaherty , Kolten Wong and Magneirus sierra

 

 

Tonkin will need to fight to make the Twins roster, so how would the Cardinals would see him as a sweetner?  Maybe you are right, but I don't see it.

[Riverbrian]

The Cards have gotten creative like this many times. The Cards and Cubs are teams that don't worry about position log jams. Having a 2B doesn't stop them from picking up a better one and moving pieces around to accommodate

 

I certainly believe this could be legit. Bottom line... the Cards need more power.

 

Same report says the Giants are getting creative. Maybe working on a 3 team deal.

 

Love the leaking or whatever it is... I think Falvey and Levine should say Giants about 100 times a day to the media. . 

 

 

[mudcat14]

If the Twins could get Weaver + Perez or Kelly + Alcantara or Hudson, I think I'd jump all over it.  If they could get all three pitchers, I'd jump all over that too. 

Edited December 27, 2016 by mudcat14

[TheLeviathan]

If it's not Reyes, I'd need Weaver and Perez to put it above a DeLeon package.  

 

Kelly is good defensively, but he's probably not a big leaguer with his bat.

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't Doogie the one always saying they are in on Cubans? Ha.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It doesn't cost the Cards anything to negotiate and drive up the price, so ROI isn't a factor. The point is to prevent the Dodgers from getting that 40 HR 2B on the cheap.

so what do the Cards do if the Twins take their offer? "Oh Gee, Sorry, I was just trying to screw over the Dodgers"

[Baseball Bat]

Logical Centerpieces from each team rumored for me to pull the trigger on trading Dozier if I'm the Twins:

 

Dodgers: RHP Jose De Leon & RHP Yadier Alvarez

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: 2B/DH Willie Calhoun, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Jordan Sheffield, SS Gavin Lux, C Austin Barnes, RHP Brock Stewart

 

Cardinals: RHP Luke Weaver, OF Harrison Bader, & RHP Jack Flaherty

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: SS Delvin Perez, OF Magneuris Sierra, RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Dakota Hudson, C Carson Kelly

 

Nationals: OF Victor Robles & RHP Erick Fedde

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: SS Carter Kieboom, 3B Sheldon Nuese, LHP Jesus Luzardo, C Pedro Severino, 

 

Giants: SS/3B Christian Arroyo, RHP Tyler Beede, 1B Chris Shaw, & RHP Rodolfo Martinez

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: OF Bryan Reynolds, RHP Sam Coonrod, C Aramis Garcia, RHP Joan Gregorio, LHP Andrew Suarez, RHP Jordan Johnson

 

Yes, this is all prospects. I don't understand the people in these forums that want to emphasize major league ready talent. That makes zero sense. Why would we want Kolten Wong? The Twins are not winning the world series in 2017, 2018, or 2019. So it makes sense to get the best possible players with the most upside, not someone who will be in our rotation or play second base for us in 2017.