To Tender or Not To Tender

[Seth Stohs]

MLB Trade Rumors (specifically Matt Schwarz) developed a mathematical system for projecting arbitration deals.

 

Seven Twins players will be arbitration-eligible this winter. How many do you protect given the projection, and everything else we know.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-2017.html

 

Twins (7)

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – $8.2MM
Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
Tommy Milone (4.113) – $4.9MM
Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM 

[Seth Stohs]

For me, Tommy Milone is the only one I would non-tender. 

[Thrylos]

I'd trade them all, if there are any takers, otherwise I'd non-tender them with maybe the exception of Gibson.   They all are too old for a rebuilding team, at best mediocre, and blocking others.   I'd take the $30 million in savings and put half towards the Sano/Buxton extension fund and the other half towards signing the two best IFA arms out there

[laloesch]

I'd probably employ a wait and see approach.  The one obvious choice as Seth said would be Tommy Milone.  The others could go as well depending on what is done this winter.

[Doomtints]

Milone.

[Vanimal46]

I would not tender Milone or Plouffe. 

[Loosey]

I would non-tender Plouffe, Milone and possibly Santiago if they were able to identify someone (or two) better to use the ~$20M on.

 

 

[mazeville]

Nontender Plouffe and Milone.

 

I mean, unless you can find a trade partner for Plouffe, it's hard to imagine spending $8 million on Plouffe after his performance last year. The Twins should have traded him when they had the chance. 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would tender Gibson, Kintzler, Escobar, and Pressley.  I would try (and probably fail) to trade Plouffe, Milone, and Santiago.

[TheLeviathan]

If I can't trade Plouffe, I definitely non-tender him.

[Rosterman]

I doubt you could trade Plouffe. Teams would rather wait to see if you non-tender and they try to get the guy at a reduced rate.

 

I would clearly ask myself, as general manager, what value ANY of these players have in the open market. Would that justify my possible purchase of a year of their service as a trading chip. My next question would be, who among this group will be a contributor, still, in 2018...and at what cost.

 

Especially when dealing with Escobar (now a reserve infielder) as well as Kintzler and Pressley (bullpen arms that didn't excel)...I would consider what I could get that would be equal, yet different and serving the needs of the team.

 

And when you throw in all the guys that are basically minor league free agents: Schafer, Grossman, Centeno, Boshers, Albers, Dean, Beresford with those that are on the bubble like Wimmers, Light, Duffey, Tonkin and O'Rourke...and throw-in Park and Danny Santana...it may be time to just clean house, period.

 

Tell me the TRUE VALUE of any of the above players, to the Twins or in the marketplace as a whole. Do they give us a fighting chance to compete? Will they get better in 2017 and make us want to keep them around for 2018 or longer? 

 

Plus not bring back Santiago would make the Nolasco trade even out. We would get $8 million combined with some other savings that a new front office might be able to spend more wisely.

 

The pain is that the next batch of guys in the minors aren't redy to open the season, or possibly even shine in September 2017 callups yet. So the Twins will be filling the roster with inbetweeners again. You don't want to invest heavily in any starters, otherwise their good work (see Ervin Santana) is basically wasted. The future is still with the guys on the cusp, and they will still need a season or two to figure things out. And by some date in the future, everyone will pull together and hopefully you have enough money and fans-in-the-stands to keep your own potential free agents to go with those guys that you draft and produce thru the system to become Twins.

 

[nicksaviking]

If I'm a new GM/POBO who doesn't have authority to hire a new manager, there is no chance I tender Plouffe knowing the incumbent manager can't help himself when it comes to finding starting roles for vets.

[Doomtints]

 

If I'm a new GM/POBO who doesn't have authority to hire a new manager, there is no chance I tender Plouffe knowing the incumbent manager can't help himself when it comes to finding starting roles for vets.

 

Your first move as GM would be to try to sink the manager which would in turn sink the team?

 

How would you fix the relationships with the people who happen to like the manager, which would include your boss, many in the front office, and many players?

[Mr. Brooks]

Your first move as GM would be to try to sink the manager which would in turn sink the team?

 

How would you fix the relationships with the people who happen to like the manager, which would include your boss, many in the front office, and many players?

Where did he say anything about "sinking" the manager.

He's talking about saving the manager from himself.

Do you really think Trevor Plouffe is a difference maker?

I would hope that when our new POBO has a philosophical difference with field management their default isn't to just bite their tongue and give in, lest they irritate the teachers pet.

I mean, if they only brought Falvey in to be a yes man to Mollie and Pohlad, they might as well close up shop now.

[70charger]

 

Your first move as GM would be to try to sink the manager which would in turn sink the team?

 

How would you fix the relationships with the people who happen to like the manager, which would include your boss, many in the front office, and many players?

 

I think his point was that the lineup is actually better without Plouffe in it. Which I agree with. If you don't agree, that may seem like "trying to sink the manager," but to me it looked like the thrust of his post was that Plouffe is no longer a viable option, not that Molitor needs to go at all costs. 

 

Removing the temptation for a manager to play a player who makes the team worse sounds like the opposite of sinking him. It sounds like saving him from himself.

[Willihammer]

Up til September I was defending Plouffe's spot on the roster. Reasonable contract, best defensive option by a mile, professional PAs with acceptable pop. But, the 2nd DL stint with the intercostal / oblique is troubling. Will this be a *thing* from now on? I don't know anymore.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins (7)
Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – trade, or no tender
Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM---tender
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM--meh, I don't care
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM--tender
Tommy Milone (4.113) – $4.9MM--non-tender
Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM--tender
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM---meh, i don't care

[Willihammer]

Pressly for sure. Molitor ran him into the ground a bit last season, but he's a solid 4/5th option on a bullpen depth chart.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Pressly for sure. Molitor ran him into the ground a bit last season, but he's a solid 4/5th option on a bullpen depth chart.

 

Fair, but I'm all in on bringing up as many young RPs as possible.....

[gil4]

$8M sure doesn't go as far as it used to, but I'd still save it rather than spend it on Plouffe.  The Twins can afford the salary, but not the roster spot. Definitely non-tendering Milone as well, and thinking long and hard about Santiago (but probably keeping him.)

[nicksaviking]

I think his point was that the lineup is actually better without Plouffe in it. Which I agree with. If you don't agree, that may seem like "trying to sink the manager," but to me it looked like the thrust of his post was that Plouffe is no longer a viable option, not that Molitor needs to go at all costs. 

 

Removing the temptation for a manager to play a player who makes the team worse sounds like the opposite of sinking him. It sounds like saving him from himself.

Yes, I was thinking Billy Beane v Art Howe.

 

Beane knew what he wanted but he also knew that if Howe had options, he would choose the opposite. It's easier sometimes to just remove the option.

 

And frankly, a manager who loses 100 games and somehow keeps his job probably has little reason to second guess his new boss.

[Jham]

We're in kind of an awful spot regarding 3rd base.  Sano probably can't play there.  Escobar's bat probably doesn't play there, and Polanco seems to be the new shortstop.  But it's tough justify spending more on Plouffe.  I'd still consider doing a 2 year $12 or $13mil extension.  But I'm leaning toward starting Sano and rolling with Esco if Sano can't stick or gets hurt.  Mauer's lack of position flexibility is killing us.  Just seems like we're putting a dangerous amount of stock in a 25 HR .230 hitter with questionable defensive value.  

 

Escobar is a solid role player who can hit a bit, but doesn't run well.  If we retained Plouffe, I'd let Esco go, if not, I'd try to extend Escobar who we'll certainly find use for in one way or another over the next few seasons.

 

Gibson gets a tender.  So Santiago was pretty good when he did his own thing, picking and walking.   He got lit up while trying to limit his walks.  You wonder if Milone would have had a similar improvement if they didn't insist on him throwing his hittable pitches down the middle.  I'd non-tender both Santiago and Milone at this point.  

 

Kintzler has closing experience and was pretty effective when not overused.  I'd tender.  Ditto Pressley.  I've sort of seen enough of Tonkin.  O'Rourke was great against lefties again.  Tender.  

 

[Shaitan]

Milone is gone. I could go either way on Plouffe and Santiago.

[Shaitan]

 

My non-tender candidates are both Tommy Milone and Brandon Kintzler. Neither are worth the projected arbitration salaries they will command based on service time, and there are other organizational players available that can fill those roles.

I would DFA Danny Santana and Michael Tonkin, neither are players that should have 40 man spots on this team. Both have proven they are not successful major league baseball players.

 

$2.2 million for Kitzler is too much? That's barely even "real" major league money.

 

I'm not saying he's an all-star but players really don't come cheaper than that.

[Willihammer]

Hard pass on Kintzler. He has absolutely nothing to offer besides that 94 mph sinker. 15% k-rate? No that won't cut it in consecutive seasons. Milone could do better than that out of the pen, at least he has something resembling a major league repertoire. I'd sooner tender him as a reliever.

[Halsey Hall]

Start with Plouffe, he's gotta go.  And then move down the list.

[Shane Wahl]

Santiago, Escobar, and Gibson tendered. It is really something else that the Twins could never trade Plouffe over the past two seasons. Kintzler and Pressly are straight up mediocre arms and easily replacable with players like Chargois, Duffey, Baxendale, Burdi, Reed, etc.

[beckmt]

MLB Trade Rumors (specifically Matt Schwarz) developed a mathematical system for projecting arbitration deals.

 

Seven Twins players will be arbitration-eligible this winter. How many do you protect given the projection, and everything else we know.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-2017.html

 

Twins (7)

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – $8.2MM

Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM

Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM

Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM

Tommy Milone (4.113) – $4.9MM

Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM

Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

Plouffe, Kintzler, Milone, Gibson would all be non-tenders by me. That would give me the money to sign one of the proven closers on the market this year). I would then fill the rest of the pen with the youngsters we have pounding on the door and see who sticks and who does not.

One of the youngsters might(and I emphasize might) be a big end closer, but in that case you can flip the one you bought for another group of near ready major league prospects.

Santiago at least has the track record and the stuff to be a #3 or #4 major league starter. Gibson to me is a starter on a bad ballclub, but not on a contending one, why waste the money. Yes, I know I am giving players away, but I do not see any of these four being a part of a contending team and they are blocking spots for other players to develop.

This board has been in favor of cutting a starting pitcher to create room, my choice is Gibson.

[TheLeviathan]

If we non-tender Milone I'd like to try and bring him back as a cheap, not terrible option on the team.  But I doubt he does that.

 

Kintzler and Pressley were good enough and cheap enough tenders that I do it for depth.  But I'm still looking to drop some serious cash on a reliever this offseason.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

MLB Trade Rumors (specifically Matt Schwarz) developed a mathematical system for projecting arbitration deals.

 

Seven Twins players will be arbitration-eligible this winter. How many do you protect given the projection, and everything else we know.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-2017.html

 

Twins (7)

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – $8.2MM If he is close to 100% healthy in January I tender him. Someone will trade something for him, even if we cover some of the salary. If he is not close to healthy, I non tender.
Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM Tender, the prospects we hope will take over in the rotation by 2018 won't be ready opening day 2017.
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM Tender, why not, it's chump change in today's game.
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM If healthy, absolutely tender. If similar as last year, I non tender.
Tommy Milone (4.113) – $4.9MM Non tender, no question
Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM Tender, and absolutely look for the right deal.
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM Tender