To Tender or Not To Tender

[howieramone2]

Plouffe is by far our best option at 3B. Santiago and Gibson have decent track records, and with Santana give us 3 major league starters. Berrios will be buried at Rochester, and most likely will end up a reliever in the not too distance future. 

[twinsnorth49]

 

Plouffe is by far our best option at 3B. Santiago and Gibson have decent track records, and with Santana give us 3 major league starters. Berrios will be buried at Rochester, and most likely will end up a reliever in the not too distance future. 

What is decent about Kyle Gibson's track record? It screams terrible. Statistically speaking Santiago might be his doppleganger with a slightly higher K/9.

 

Plouffe is who he is, his fielding will never be good enough to make up for his bat vs Miguel. If Sano can make incremental improvements in the field (which I expect to happen), his bat will always make him the better option at 3rd, particularly if he can cut his K rate.

 

Berrios buried in Rochester? Huh? At 22 years old and 14 MLB games? I don't think many people anywhere in baseball would agree with that assessment. Pretty small sample to be basing it on, especially when you consider his sterling minor league success. Weird.

[howieramone2]

What is decent about Kyle Gibson's track record? It screams terrible. Statistically speaking Santiago might be his doppleganger with a slightly higher K/9.

 

Plouffe is who he is, his fielding will never be good enough to make up for his bat vs Miguel. If Sano can make incremental improvements in the field (which I expect to happen), his bat will always make him the better option at 3rd, particularly if he can cut his K rate.

 

Berrios buried in Rochester? Huh? At 22 years old and 14 MLB games? I don't think many people anywhere in baseball would agree with that assessment. Pretty small sample to be basing it on, especially when you consider his sterling minor league success. Weird.

Not so weird if you read the article stating his rookie starting pitching debut was the worst since some Cubbie named Micah Bowe in 1999. The worst since 1999 is not a SSS.

[twinsnorth49]

 

No so weird if you read the article stating his rookie starting piching debut was the worst since some Cubbie named Micah Bowe in 1999. The worst since 1999 is not a SSS.

14 games is a small sample to base things on, that's what is relevant. Not Micah Bowie, at least get his name right.

 

If that's your only comparable, you might want to keep looking.

[gocgo]

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – $8.2MM
Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
Tommy Milone (4.113) – $4.9MM
Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

 

Curious what the formula is based one.  Pitching is always in demand, but what makes Plouffe worth 8.2 mill?  We saw that there wasn't much demand for him in the offseason and I doubt that this season has increased that demand.

 

Personally, I don't see taking on Plouffe at that price.  Santiago...maybe, but probably not.  The rest of them, sure.

[HitInAPinch]

Twins (7)

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – $8.2MM
Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
Tommy Milone (4.113) – $4.9MM
Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM 

 

Sano is the full-timer at 3rd, backup inf are easy to find.  There will be no trade, Plouffe is a non-tender.

Santiago came on at the end of the year.  IDK, but I wouldn't cry myself to sleep over him.

Kintzler:  the jump to MLB seems tougher for Twins prospects.  At that price, I'm keeping Kintzler.

Escobar:  If Dozier is traded [i have my doubts on that] Polanco at 2B, Escobar at SS.  If Dozier is not traded, competition is always good thing.

Milone, Gibson & Pressly:  Gibson may be tradeable, non-tender all 3. 

 

If you're rebuilding, rebuild. 

[Mike Sixel]

If Gibson isn't a SP for the Twins next year, and Santiago isn't....who are the starters?

 

Santana (hopefully traded)

Berrios

???May???

???Duffey???

???

???

???

 

I don't get this stuff about Gibson at all.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

When are the relevant dates?

[Linus]

If Gibson isn't a SP for the Twins next year, and Santiago isn't....who are the starters?

 

Santana (hopefully traded)

Berrios

???May???

???Duffey???

???

???

???

 

I don't get this stuff about Gibson at all.

This. He's cheap and still has a chance.

[Rosterman]

 

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – $8.2MM
Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
Tommy Milone (4.113) – $4.9MM
Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

 

Curious what the formula is based one.  Pitching is always in demand, but what makes Plouffe worth 8.2 mill?  We saw that there wasn't much demand for him in the offseason and I doubt that this season has increased that demand.

 

Personally, I don't see taking on Plouffe at that price.  Santiago...maybe, but probably not.  The rest of them, sure.

The pain about arbitration is that it is a series of stats and years of service that works into the price of the player. Similar to when the Twins let David Ortiz walk rather than pay him his supposed arbitration salary for the year. A team can cut a player 20% at most, but arbitration is never about cuts, it's about a compriomise. The Twins might be able to pull off a $13-15 million two-year deal with Ploufee, but that won't be paying him any less than $8. If they do cut him, then he free to sign for whatever, and chances are he won't reach $8, but at this point the Twins probably couldn't resign him until a certain date. Of course, they can arbitrate his salary and sign him and trade him. But all signs point to him being a player that should be making less (and you could Danny Valencia, for example, for less).

 

Same could be said for Santiago.

 

And last season, the Twins went to arbitration with Fien, whom they shouldn't have. The year before Duensing and Swarzak. Arbitration tends to work against a team, especially in the free agent walk year.

[BK432]

Trevor Plouffe (5.162) – non-tender
Hector Santiago (5.016) I lean tender but just barely. Free roll for a year for a team with plenty of money to spend.
Brandon Kintzler (5.003) –  tender, same as above I guess. But don't feel strongly.
Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – clear tender here
Tommy Milone (4.113) – clear non-tender
Kyle Gibson (3.056) –  tender, still time to see what's there.
Ryan Pressly (3.053) – anonymous bullpen arm - non-tender

 

Good thread!

[Thrylos]

 

If Gibson isn't a SP for the Twins next year, and Santiago isn't....who are the starters?

 

Santana (hopefully traded)

Berrios

???May???

???Duffey???

???

???

???

 

I don't get this stuff about Gibson at all.

 

The best 5 of:

 

Berrios

Mejia

Gonsalves

Jay

Felix

Romero

and the 2 good young close to MLB-ready arms the Twins will get in trading Dozier, Santana, +++

 

Simple.  If you don't throw them in the water, you don't know whether they can swim.  Or not.

[sftwinsfan]

If it was me:

Plouffe-no.  Would have no position now, assuming Sano at 3rd.  Don't need another logjam.

 

Milone-no.  Hasn't been able to keep a rotation spot the last 2 years and that's really saying something on this team.

 

Santiago-yes.  Has an alright track record, hope he gets hot and you can find a team to overpay for him at the all-star break in 2017.  There's next to nobody on the free agent market and the young guys have barely pitched above A ball and are unlikely to be ready in April.

 

Kintzler-yes.  He pitched ok and is cheap, wouldn't really care one way or the other on this one.  

 

Gibson-yes.  He's a guy I could see putting it together after moving to a team like the Cardinals or something.  He's still cheap, isn't far removed from being a decent starter, so hope that he's healthy and give him another shot.  

 

Escobar-yes.  He's cheap and a solid utility guy.  Can play all over the field and gets hot with the bat at times.

 

Pressly-yes.  Good velocity, looked nasty at times.  Very cheap, could be a nice payoff with some patience and the right instruction.  

[Shaitan]

 

The best 5 of:

 

Berrios

Mejia

Gonsalves

Jay

Felix

Romero

and the 2 good young close to MLB-ready arms the Twins will get in trading Dozier, Santana, +++

 

Simple.  If you don't throw them in the water, you don't know whether they can swim.  Or not.

I don't know enough about Felix or Romero, but I'd assume Gonsalves is pitching 170 IP next year tops, with Jay below that in the gradual buildup the Twins use in through the minors. Maybe they can contribute, but not 30 starts.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't know enough about Felix or Romero, but I'd assume Gonsalves is pitching 170 IP next year tops, with Jay below that in the gradual buildup the Twins use in through the minors. Maybe they can contribute, but not 30 starts.

Gonsalves will have pitched 155+ innings this year after AFL.

He won't be on any kind of innings restriction next year.

 

And, for the sake of argument, even if he were on a 170 limit, that is still good for 30 starts.

Ervin Santana was our best starter by far, and even he only pitched 181 innings in 30 starts.

A rookie is unlikely to pitch efficiently enough to average 6+ innings per start. That just doesn't happen anymore.

[howieramone2]

 

The best 5 of:

 

Berrios

Mejia

Gonsalves

Jay

Felix

Romero

and the 2 good young close to MLB-ready arms the Twins will get in trading Dozier, Santana, +++

 

Simple.  If you don't throw them in the water, you don't know whether they can swim.  Or not.

Berrios drown and now the fan board wants to give him a scholarship. 

[SweetOne69]

 

When are the relevant dates?

Dec. 2nd is the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players.

[adorduan]

 

I'd trade them all, if there are any takers, otherwise I'd non-tender them with maybe the exception of Gibson.   They all are too old for a rebuilding team, at best mediocre, and blocking others.   I'd take the $30 million in savings and put half towards the Sano/Buxton extension fund and the other half towards signing the two best IFA arms out there

There is no such thing as a Sano/Buxton extension fund.

[Thrylos]

 

I don't know enough about Felix or Romero, but I'd assume Gonsalves is pitching 170 IP next year tops, with Jay below that in the gradual buildup the Twins use in through the minors. Maybe they can contribute, but not 30 starts.

 

Here is the thing:  Teams like the Twins would do themselves a favor to have a pool of 7-8 starters, keep the 2-3 most successful of them in the majors, and rotate the rest with AAA every 2 weeks.  If someone gets hot in the majors he stays.  If someone cools off, he goes and gets replaced by the hottest AAA arm. 

 

Pretty radical thinking, but a rebuilding team would so benefit of doing something like this (and even a competing team would benefit from doing the same with their 5th starter...)

 

Anyways...  As I said, pretty radical thinking.

 

Re: Romero:  I would not be surprised if he makes the team out of Spring Training next season and is the second coming of Johan Santana...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'd probably employ a wait and see approach. The one obvious choice as Seth said would be Tommy Milone. The others could go as well depending on what is done this winter.

you can only wait til mid January. Being that Falvey won't start until late October and still need to hire a GM, not much time to wait things out.

[Shaitan]

 

Here is the thing:  Teams like the Twins would do themselves a favor to have a pool of 7-8 starters, keep the 2-3 most successful of them in the majors, and rotate the rest with AAA every 2 weeks.  If someone gets hot in the majors he stays.  If someone cools off, he goes and gets replaced by the hottest AAA arm. 

 

Pretty radical thinking, but a rebuilding team would so benefit of doing something like this (and even a competing team would benefit from doing the same with their 5th starter...)

 

Anyways...  As I said, pretty radical thinking.

 

Re: Romero:  I would not be surprised if he makes the team out of Spring Training next season and is the second coming of Johan Santana...

 

Would that require a 14 man pitching staff to cover all the short starts? It's an intriguing concept.

[Thrylos]

 

Would that require a 14 man pitching staff to cover all the short starts? It's an intriguing concept.

 

Between the majors, AAA, and AA you got 15 starters (and better do not get old MiLB FAs)  You will not need them all.  The Twins got 11 starters on their 40-man roster (so a roster can accommodate that many,) 

 

In an extreme case that nobody can stick around for more than 2 weeks, you will need 11 pitchers:

 

You can have a staff of:

 

1.Pitcher A rotates with pitcher B every 15 days,

2.Pitcher C rotates with pitcher D every 15 days,

3 Pitcher E rotates with pitcher F every 15 days,

4 Pitcher G rotates with pitcher H every 15 days,

5 Pitcher I rotates with pitcher J every 15 days,

And you will need another pitcher for parity, because if pitcher B is not the hottest when A need to go down, and J is, who however has not been in the minors long enough to come back, you bring K up and wait for J's eligibility window...

 

The trick is that all of then would need to have options left.  In a rebuilding team that should not be a problem.  And if they have a guy without any options, he better worth it to stick 100%....

[Mike Sixel]

My plan is a bit different then Thrylos'.....

 

I'd use about 8 RPs that rotate in and out of the "rotation" that go up and down from AAA to MLB. Probably you can find 2 good starters, but rather than send out SPs that should never be starters, you should use guys in a rotation for the other 3 starts.