Reusse: Fire Molitor

[gocgo]

 

Systems that estimate W/L records by how well a team hits, pitches and fields say that the Twins were about 10 games lucky last year and about 10 games unlucky this year. That means, by taking luck out, the Twins would have been 73-89 last year and should be about 71-91 this year. If the manager is responsible for performance, but not luck, those records are, well, the type that usually leads to replacement.

Maybe the Twins and Twins fans have gotten so used to poor performance that we don't realize how much of an outlier these results are. I believe TK and Gardy are the only managers in history other than Connie Mack, who owned his team, to have four straight 90-loss seasons with the same club. I guess in comparison, Molitor's work doesn't seem so bad.

Yeah, I get that, but as I pointed out in another post, guys coming up from the minors who don't know the basics aren't the fault of the manager.  Guys coming up from the minors who suddenly can't throw strikes or hit their spots aren't the fault of the manager.  We can replace Molitor with anyone and I doubt it will make a difference.  We've got issues that go deep into the organization.

[Doomtints]

 

Systems that estimate W/L records by how well a team hits, pitches and fields say that the Twins were about 10 games lucky last year and about 10 games unlucky this year. That means, by taking luck out, the Twins would have been 73-89 last year and should be about 71-91 this year. If the manager is responsible for performance, but not luck, those records are, well, the type that usually leads to replacement.

Maybe the Twins and Twins fans have gotten so used to poor performance that we don't realize how much of an outlier these results are. I believe TK and Gardy are the only managers in history other than Connie Mack, who owned his team, to have four straight 90-loss seasons with the same club. I guess in comparison, Molitor's work doesn't seem so bad.

 

 

The problem with luck is that it can't account for general streakiness that exists with most teams as the idea of "luck" looks at a rollup of stats.  The 2015 Twins had a very nice good streak (though really so did the 2016 Twins).  The 2016 Twins also had a few legendarily bad streaks.  I'm not sure you can say 2016 was bad luck with a straight face -- their record seems pretty accurate to me -- but I think it's fair that the 2015 Twins exceeded what anyone expected.

 

To cite Bill James:  "When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next."  I knew about this theory before the 2016 Twins season, but I still held out hope that it would be wrong.

[mazeville]

 

Only three players played more than 100 games in 2011 and no team has enough depth to cover that.  Looking at that roster isn't quite fair because some of those players would have never played in the majors if not for what was going on, or if they would have played it would have been years later. 

 

The problem is the Twins then got rid of people who they should have kept while continuing to march out players who should not have been in the majors.  They could have solved this problem in 1-2 years if they had made better decisions.

 

There are a lot of things that could have happened to cause Smith's dismissal.  There were injuries on that team, but there were also "injuries" which suggests there was a lot of griping in the clubhouse.  Likely there were meetings with players and higher ups.  It's possible Smith was approached with some of this and didn't handle the criticism very well.  

 

You didn't watch the same team I did that year. They were awful and it wasn't just injuries. Everything about that year suggested they were in for a very long rebuilding process. And simply blowing $$$ on free agents was not going to fix that.

 

In any event, that's not proof. It's mindless speculation. There was plenty -- PLENTY -- of reason to give Bill Smith the boot. The Nishioka signing. The JJ Hardy trade. The Delmon Young trade. 

[mlhouse]

While most of the mistakes on the field cannot be laid at the feet of the manager because those things are expceted, some things can. The team has shown very little patience with its young prospects.  A player, like Buxton, Berrios, or Chargois has problems at the MLB level and they send him back down quick.  They do not seem to be able to help these young players at the MLB level.

 

On the other hand, the entire organization bears much of the problem.  Twins players come up from the minors and they display an almost frightening lack of fundamentals.  Yet, the Twins have a very conservative approach to moving players through the minors.

 

 ​Consider Miguel Sano. Sure, he is 23 and came up from AA, but look at his path:  Age 17:  Rookie -  Age 18:  Rookie +  Age 19:  A-  Age 20:  A+/AA  Age 21:  IR  Age 22:  AA/MLB.  He was a high level prospect that mostly performed at a 900 OPS level, but the Twins methodically moved him up year by year, and the fact is 22 years of age is not that out of the ordinary for making a MLB debut.  The same story is true on just about all of their prospects. 

 

It has been clear we have a rebuilding process ahead of us for the past five years.  They need to finally acknowledge that fact, commit to the young prospects and not the worn out has beens, take their lumps and develop their talent. 

 

If the team was right in scouting then in the near term we should have a pretty good team.  But if we keep pushing off the commitment we might never have one.

[USAFChief]

 

The same opinion has been shared on this site hundreds of times before Reusse published it.

 

I don't generally like Reusse's knee-jerk ranting, but that one was well written and absent of fire and brimstone.

 

Also, being wrong about Danny Santana shouldn't disqualify anyone from having a meaningful take on baseball.

IMO, like him or hate him, Reusse loves baseball, more so than any other local writer,  and what's more, KNOWS a lot of baseball.

 

He might sometimes be a jerk, but he's a smart one.

 

 

[Craig Arko]

IMO, like him or hate him, Reusse loves baseball, more so than any other local writer,  and what's more, KNOWS a lot of baseball.

 

He might sometimes be a jerk, but he's a smart one.

Especially when he agrees with people here, I expect.

[nicksaviking]

 

Especially when he agrees with people here, I expect.

 

I completely disagree with his Picollo over McLeod take.

 

It was still a good article.

[clone52]

I didn't read through the entire thread, but I got thinking about how Molitor has been managing later in this season.  He's made some mind boggling decisions, but the more I thought about it, the more I thought that he might be managing for the future.

 

I've thought it was odd a few times that he used Suzuki as a pinch hitter.  Didn't seem to make sense.  But, what if the Twins think about signing Suzuki to a 1 year/low money contract to be the backup catcher next year.  Might make sense to see how he handles pinch hitter things.

 

It seems like he's let pitchers go too long in some games, especially Gibson.  He seems to fall apart.  However, if Gibson is part of the rotation, you need to know what you have from him.  If you are fighting for a playoff spot, you probably pull Gibson in the 5th inning when he walks the first 2 hitters.  When you are out of the playoff, you might let him battle through it to see if he can.

 

Could his bullpen usage also be looking to the future?  Can Brandon Kintzler be a multi-inning closer?  You'll never know until you try.  What a better time to try than when you have nothing to lose.  Why not also see how effective relievers are on back to back nights.

 

Certainly doesn't excuse April/May, but might excuse the rest of the season.

 

Personally, I would demand the new GM keep Molitor on, but I would suggest it and I would have no problem if the new GM did want to keep Molitor for one more year.

[mikelink45]

This is the siren call of most of us frustrated fans.  I hold Molitor responsible for not dumping his coaches - especially the pitching coaches.  We get Santiago, we mess him up, then he resurges when he forgets everything the Twins coaches tell him.  What a mess.  I feel really bad that Molitor messed up, but what is a boss?  They are in charge of all those who function under his authority.

[USAFChief]

 

Especially when he agrees with people here, I expect.

That's pretty unfair, Craig.

 

That's been my opinion of Reusse for a long time.  And largely unrelated to this article, where, like Nick, I don't even agree with the last part of the article.

 

 

[bird]

Danny Santana's gonna be good.

[Jerr]

I read this whole thread ........   ....Twins need a cleaning of ALL Coaches and MANAGER!!!!

 

Hire the guy to do it with NOOOOOO restrictions!!!!!

 

Fan since 1961 and I have lost interest in them, no concessions or atmosphere of the experience of out door baseball will bring me back.....first year since 1961 that I have not gone to watch MY team!!!!!

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I do think the game is starting to pass Reusse by.  Remember, this is the same brilliant baseball mind that basically declared this team a contender in the spring.  He's also repeatedly blamed Sano for everything he can stretch to pin on him.

 

I'm waiting for him to blame Mauer's latest injury on Sano even.

[DocBauer]

If Molitor helped captain a team that overachieved in wins and losses last year, is that not a factor in dismissing him?

 

I feel like a Molitor apologist with how many of you want an effigy burned every other day, but this is the same coach that helped us out-win our performance by a decent margin last year.  For many of you, the wins and losses are a bottom line, so why is that so quickly dismissed?

 

The organization's fundamentals have been on the downhill for a long time now.  It was a criticism of Gardy the last year he was here too.  Perhaps Molitor is being swallowed by the much larger issues he has no control over.

 

Just a thought.  If he's retained I find it defensible.  If he's fired i find that defensible as well.

I think this is a very smart post. Not only because I think Levi usually has smart things to say, but because we usually agree. And I'll always think someone is smart when they mostly share my similar opinions. LOL

 

But seriously, there are a couple of factors regarding Molitor, and his staff that confuse and frustrate me in regard to this whole keep/fire process. First, while I will forever vehemently disagree with moving May to the pen in 2015 over Pelfrey, for multiple reasons, he did help guide an over achieving team last season to a winning record. Second, an absolutely horrid start to the season by several players, and quite a few injuries over the course of the season as well, plus an influx of a LOT of young players in a losing season is hard to pin on the manager and his coaching staff.

 

I simply can't and won't give credit for last season and then turn around and blast Molitor and his staff for this season. BUT, where I do have a problem... mention by others...is some of the decision making I've witnessed this year. There have been several instances, especially earlier in the season, when it seemed the young guys who were brought up truly were "jerked around" in regard to usage and opportunity. But honestly, I don't think any of us know for sure how much of that was Molitor, or if there was pressure and direction from Ryan and his vision. So I'm forced to give Molitor a bit of a pass in this area without knowing more of what might have been going on behind the scene.

 

And for a while, after Ryan was dismissed, the lineup seemed more set, kids got to play consistently, and the team actually looked like a bona-fide ML team for about 2 months. Hell, he's even played Polanco almost every day, and where we all want to see him get a shot at playing, and we've been rewarded by seeing another top prospect actually look good.

 

But where I really struggle with keeping Molitor is his decision making process the last month to month and a half. Maybe the FO and Molitor felt they were in a real roster bind...not my opinion...and had to send Vargas down. But when brought back up, he's had a hard time seeing the field. Why? Because Mauer had to be appeased over playing a prospect? Schafer comes up and he has to play so we can see what we have for next season? Huh? You need to see your potential 5th or 6th OF play vs Rosario or Kepler getting every opportunity to play, learn and grow against ML pitching, including lefties? Still starting FA to be Suzuki instead of Murphy and some of Centeno? Santiago is a solid, decent ML LHRP who walks way too many but still has some solid overall numbers, was an all star in 2015, and pitching pretty well at the time of the trade for the Angels, but was completely messed up and horrible when we tried to "tweak" him. Suddenly, he was apparently told to pitch HIS game and he's been pretty solid. Berrios, NOW, is told he's in the rotation, just relax, have fun, and pitch like you want and feel you should. Shouldn't that have been said several starts ago?

 

Look, I'm not bashing Molitor, or his staff. And I'm not blaming them for this season. But at best, there are some questionable moves in regard to the handling of players, their roles, and lineup construction. I don't usually advocate change merely for the sake of change, but, with such an influx of young talent, more on the way, and a new FO coming in, if I HAD to make the call, I'd say make the change, move on, and keep the changes coming for the sake of a new order and new way of doing things from top to bottom.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think this is a very smart post. Not only because I think Levi usually has smart things to say, but because we usually agree. And I'll always think someone is smart when they mostly share my similar opinions. LOL

 

I'm used to your posts being much longer than this.  I really like your post I'm just confused by the brevity....

 

Or did I miss something?

[Old Twins Cap]

It could be, it is possible, that Pohlad said that Molitor was going to manage in 2017 in order to protect Molitor through this season.

 

If he doesn't say that, and everyone, including the young players on the Twins, know that a new GM is coming in, what happens to the discipline in the clubhouse (if there is any) under Molitor late in the season?

 

Every Twins' player will think and believe that Molitor is a lame duck and not to be listened to.

 

So, as dumb a statement as it is from the owner of a baseball franchise, in Pohlad's defense, he may have been trying to protect his manager.

 

The acid test will be to see what happens when they hire a GM, who must be given latitude to bring in his own manager.  How can you possibly evaluate new leadership if you burden him with the old manager?  That makes no sense.

[Platoon]

IMO, like him or hate him, Reusse loves baseball, more so than any other local writer,  and what's more, KNOWS a lot of baseball.

 

He might sometimes be a jerk, but he's a smart one.

Reusse has a deep history in baseball, from his youth on. He is likely the only writer that enjoys the game enough to follow it on all levels, not just with his Twins press pass as a job. Is he correct on every evaluation? Probably at about the same rate as the teams scouts, FO, and posters here are. You could fault him for being old school, and others could be faulted for being too analytically attached. But no matter, he has likely saw more baseball games live, than any two of the other TC pundits combined.

[Doomtints]

 

You didn't watch the same team I did that year. They were awful and it wasn't just injuries. Everything about that year suggested they were in for a very long rebuilding process. And simply blowing $$$ on free agents was not going to fix that.

 

In any event, that's not proof. It's mindless speculation. There was plenty -- PLENTY -- of reason to give Bill Smith the boot. The Nishioka signing. The JJ Hardy trade. The Delmon Young trade. 

 

I don't disagree with how bad they were.  As I said, there were a lot of "injuries" on the team as well as injuries.  

 

Nevertheless, they had to dig into the minors more than they could handle.  

[Eris]

 

While most of the mistakes on the field cannot be laid at the feet of the manager because those things are expceted, some things can. The team has shown very little patience with its young prospects.  A player, like Buxton, Berrios, or Chargois has problems at the MLB level and they send him back down quick.  They do not seem to be able to help these young players at the MLB level.

 

 

 

The main problem was that neither Buxton or Berrios should have been on the 40 man roster, much less the 25 man roster.  When they were called up, neither seemed ready to play in the Majors.  Buxton accumulated over 400 PA and almost 1 year of service time while hitting near the Mendoza line.  Five years from now, people may look back at this year of service time as being one to the stupidest things the Twins management has done.  But it has been a common problem for the Twins. Arcia, Buxton, Berrios,  Hicks all were activated before they need to be and well before they were ready.

[kenbuddha]

 

It could be, it is possible, that Pohlad said that Molitor was going to manage in 2017 in order to protect Molitor through this season.

 

[...]

 

So, as dumb a statement as it is from the owner of a baseball franchise, in Pohlad's defense, he may have been trying to protect his manager.

 

This. Every owner backs his manager, publicly, for the life of his contract, until he doesn't.

 

[Darius]

I'm not sure how any of these are Molitor's fault. He doesn't sign players.

 

The only questionable thing on te list, that he may have had a hand in, was Sano to right. But, let's be honest, that was like Ryan's decision after accidentally winning the bid on Park.

 

I'll say again, and I'll continue to hold this belief for at least one more year, Molitor has very little to do with the team's poor performance. Managers in general have almost no real effect on a team's performance. They maybe swing a few game +\- over the course of a whole year. Joe Maddon, the consensus best manager on earth right now, would also lose 90+ with this group.

 

Also, Molitor nearly brought the club to the playoffs last year when the pitching wasn't a train-wreck, and after some guys broke out of slumps sometime around June they have been one of the best offense clubs in baseball.

 

Not sure how firing Molitor helps/changes anything. We don't really know what we have in Molitor until he's given a roster that's not a complete disgrace in terms of a rotation/bullpen.

 

All of you calling for his head....who do you propose they bring in that would win with the club? What do those managers do differently that will turn this roster into a winner? I won't hold my breath for answers.

[Darius]

That, plus the rest of the league thinks this is to-the-studs reconstruction, not just a redecoration. For example, I'd suggest to you that a new GM will want to replace at least the AAA and Hi A managers and give a close review to Dougie. Then, the coaching staffs need to be upgraded and all of the minor league development system needs to be overhauled. Trainers and medical staff need to be replaced. Analytics needs much stronger horsepower. Further, it wouldn't surprise me if St. Peter grates on candidates, who wonder how much time they'll be able to tolerate being in the same room as him. Then, throw on top of that an owner who keeps telling you how great everyone is and how important it is to get along with everyone. . .

All of those are Paul Molitor's fault though....

[Kwak]

I concur with the statement that Pohlad is supporting his manager in order to maintain discipline for the rest of this season. But Molitor should be replaced! Not because he is a bad manager, or a bad leader, but because replacing Molitor is another indicator that there will be change! There should be no attempt to duplicate '07 or '11. The fraternity must be disbanded (though a new one will be formed!) and everybody needs to embrace the "New Way", or be run over. All, players and coaches, management and support personnel, must be part of the solution. Because if they are not, they are part of the problem and will be terminated. Sorry Paul, you gotta go, to serve as the example for "times are a changin' ".

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins want a top third play off caliber team, they ought to seek a manager who is among the top third in baseball. Is there any evidence that Molitor is that manager? Is there evidence that he will grow into that manager?

 

The Twins probably can't hire that top tier manager. They need to find a manager that is going to grow to be among the better managers. A younger manager growing with a young team is a better fit. It was an argument some made two years ago and I don't think it has shifted much today. This is not the right place or time for Molitor. They should seek someone else.

[jokin]

 

It actually makes sense for Grossman to hit there against lefties. Like, that's actually an innovative, smart thing for a manager to do -- especially if Mauer is out.

 

 

 

Like, "Rex" Grossman (AKA- "The Innovator's Dilemma")

 

Who knew?

 

Better yet, what odds would you have gotten if last spring upon Grossman's acquisition you had told your Vegas bookie to put down a Benjamin on RG hitting in the Twins lineup in the 2- or 3-hole in 41 games this season?

 

If "Rex" is on the 25-manroster on opening day in 2017 I will be stunned.

[jokin]

 

The Twins probably can't hire that top tier manager.

 

Why not? Exactly who the manager hire will be strongly based on who the two preceding hires will be.

[jorgenswest]

Why not? Exactly who the manager hire will be strongly based on who the two preceding hires will be.

Simply because the established top tier managers are already employed. More likely, they will need to find someone who will join that their with some experience.

[jokin]

 

Simply because the established top tier managers are already employed. More likely, they will need to find someone who will join that their with some experience.

 

And there is nothing to stop said established top tier managers whose contracts are expiring from becoming the next Twins manager- if the new POBO/GM and the contract offer are a satisfactory alternative.

[terrydactyls]

I would like to just add some intelligent, positive, cognitive statements to this thread. But I got nothin'. Sorry. I guess I'll just wait to see what unfolds in real life this winter. Go Gophers/Vikings?

[jorgenswest]

And there is nothing to stop said established top tier managers whose contracts are expiring from becoming the next Twins manager- if the new POBO/GM and the contract offer are a satisfactory alternative.

Sorry. I wasn't aware that a top tier manager has a contract expiring.