Santana trade rumors

[gunnarthor]

Apparently, the Rangers are looking at Santana. 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/pitching-notes-santana-cobb-felix-cards-red-sox-eovaldi.html

 

"Texas is in need of rotation depth, as its current depth chart shows, and that may well remain an area of interest even if the club is able to add a higher-end starter. While the veteran Santana doesn’t come with a ton of upside at 33 years of age, he has long been a solid pitcher and would deliver some much-needed dependability. He has averaged over 180 innings annually dating back to his rookie campaign in 2005, and is still working with the same velocity and generating about the same swinging strike rate that he has for much of his career. Santana is owed $13.5MM this year and the two to follow, though, so there’d be some financial negotiating to work through."

[Kwak]

A trade of Santana = Rebuild with a large cut in payroll.  I expect Plouffe will also be gone by April. This "DL" provides the perfect opportunity for Sano to play 3B w/o "hurting Plouffe's feelings". Who is next? There will need to be more!

[TNTwinsFan]

Get a SS or C from them.

[kab21]

 

Get a SS or C from them.

 

Let's start with some reasonable expectations. Santana is 33 with a 4.50 ERA and has two years remaining on his contract. He is decent but he isn't bringing back an asset.

[TNTwinsFan]

Maybe packaged with one of our Top 20 Prospects?

[Rosterman]

 

Maybe packaged with one of our Top 20 Prospects?

You could package him with, say, Arcia. Wait....... Maybe with Danny Santana! Yes, with a prospect for something better would be wonderful. 

 

And Santana is a powerful back-of-the-rotation starter if you provide adequate offense. And his extended contract isn't all that bad. And any receiving team can also gamble that he will stay the same or improve and still be a viable tradechip if need be.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Let's start with some reasonable expectations. Santana is 33 with a 4.50 ERA and has two years remaining on his contract. He is decent but he isn't bringing back an asset.

Butera brough back an asset - hrrrumph!

[kab21]

 

Maybe packaged with one of our Top 20 Prospects?

This is on often suggested idea but it doesn't happen often. The target for someone like Santana is at best a player like Hu (the Jepsen trade) while negotiating how much of the contract the Twins pay. These are the expectations.

 

The expectations in a Nolasco trade are even lower.

[DaveW]

Santana isn't bad, but has no real business being in a rebuilding club next year. Veteran #4's grow on trees anyways.

 

Take any halfway decent prospect you can get for him and call it a day.

 

Maybe use some of that money and sign an impact free agent for once.

[dbminn]

Bernadino tweets that the Orioles, Blue Jays, Mets, Marlins and A's have all had scouts at Target Field.

 

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino

 

 

 

 

[old nurse]

The Rays reportedly want Gallo for Odorizzi If true, the chance of a minor deals can be made goes up because the price  of front line is too high.

[shs_59]

Ervin Santana is a low end #2 starter in the NL

 

Should be viewed as a #3 starter in the AL.

 

Attach the current contract to him (& his age) and the offer of perceived value is as a #4 starter.

but an innings eating one, who still has value.

 

IN OTHER WORDS the Twins need to include Alex Meyer or (some top 30 prospect of their own)  Or Eat 1/4 or one third of the remaining salary in any such deal

If you're going to get back the proper pieces for the Right-Handed veteran arm.

 

I have great trade Ideas when it comes to Nunez, Alex Meyer and Trevor Plouffe (sadly before he went to DL)

 

but have no reciprocation or assessments of Ervin "un-magical" Santana.

*changing his name back to Johan Santana would be a nice start*

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I hope they can trade Santana.

 

It will be tough. He hasn't eaten innings with just 84 innings in 15 starts. That is less than 6 innings a start. He has performed as a back of the rotation starter with an ERA of 4.22 and FIP of 4.26 over his last 32 starts.

 

His performance is in line with expectations but not in line with his contract. The Twins should expect a little more decline over the next two years.

[Blackjack]

The Twins are looking for innings from their starters, no way he gets traded - unless some team sends a very good prospect. Not saying he shouldn't get traded -- he's 33, on the downhill slide without roids, big contract -- but the Twins won't be trading him.

[dbminn]

The Twins will have no problem trading Santana. It's only a matter of what they want for him. His contract is not out of line when compared to other pitchers in his price category. Several contenders have rotation problems and few competent veterans are available.

 

As others have said, the FO might also want to keep him until the pitching prospects fully develop. There is room for Berrios - he can take over Millone's spot in the rotation. Given TR's inability to pull off trades and the need for an innings eater this year, I expect Santana to stay in a Twins uniform.

 

 

[raindog]

If the Twins actually want value back from a guy like Santana, they need to be willing to eat a lot of salary. They haven't been willing to do that much in the past.

[REPETE]

 

Santana isn't bad, but has no real business being in a rebuilding club next year. Veteran #4's grow on trees anyways.

Take any halfway decent prospect you can get for him and call it a day.

Maybe use some of that money and sign an impact free agent for once.

#4 starters grow on trees?  The Twins have spent a lot of (widely discussed) money on mediocre starters.  In FA, that's the price (see Pelfrey/Correia).  Sadly, they were signed as hopefully #3 starters, and evolved into #4's, or just started looking like #2 (and no, I don't mean #2 starters).

 

Jettisoning all these starters means young guys getting call ups, which I'm in favor of.  But when they get shelled in the 3rd inning, that means we need even more guys in the bullpen, which has been far from a strong point of this team.  Berrios is ready (if he doesn't implode again), but what's behind him?

 

You need #3's & 4s on your team, and letting Santana go with a couple years of the contract, means adding FA starters in the offseason.  The cost for a #3-4 nets you the likes of:  E Santana/R Nolasco/P Hughes/M Pelfrey/K Correia.  So what did we save?

[Vanimal46]

I'd prefer to trade Nolasco over Santana, as I do think there's value in having a veteran who can be a mentor for the younger pitchers on staff. Personality wise Santana seems like a much better fit for the organization than Nolasco as well.

However, if I can only get a team on the hook to take on Santana instead of Nolasco, I'd still pull the trigger on a trade and make it happen. 

[DaveW]

 

I'd prefer to trade Nolasco over Santana, as I do think there's value in having a veteran who can be a mentor for the younger pitchers on staff. Personality wise Santana seems like a much better fit for the organization than Nolasco as well.

However, if I can only get a team on the hook to take on Santana instead of Nolasco, I'd still pull the trigger on a trade and make it happen. 

I think it goes without saying that nearly everyone would prefer to trade Nolasco over Santana.

Ditto with Danny Santana over Brian Doizer.

 

If they can find any team that will take Nolasco, dump him immediately, if they can find a decent return for Santana? Do it immediately.

[jorgenswest]

I am not as confident in trading Santana. Something is not right. He is laboring to get through 6 innings throwing a lot more pitches. This year he is over 100 pitches per 6 innings. Last year it was 93. In KC it was 90. I am not sure how to compare Atlanta since NL pitchers have the advantage of fewer DHs and disadvantage of getting pulled strategically for a pinch hitter.

 

The increase is batters fouling off pitches that were once swinging strikes. Without the ability to miss bats, he has become more similar to Mike Pelfrey than the pitcher he was in 2013-14. His velocity remains the same but he really has no more space to decline and still be effective. I don't think they need a good return if they can get out of their 2017-2018 commitment.

[laloesch]

 

I am not as confident in trading Santana. Something is not right. He is laboring to get through 6 innings throwing a lot more pitches. This year he is over 100 pitches per 6 innings. Last year it was 93. In KC it was 90. I am not sure how to compare Atlanta since NL pitchers have the advantage of fewer DHs and disadvantage of getting pulled strategically for a pinch hitter.

The increase is batters fouling off pitches that were once swinging strikes. Without the ability to miss bats, he has become more similar to Mike Pelfrey than the pitcher he was in 2013-14. His velocity remains the same but he really has no more space to decline and still be effective. I don't think they need a good return if they can get out of their 2017-2018 commitment.

 

He's not been as effective this season as he was the second half of 2015.  The Twins should dump him any chance they get along with Nolasco if possible.  If they could clear 75% of his remaining contract and half of Nolasco I think that's a huge relief and allows them some flexibility to sign a higher quality starter or roll with the young guys for a while. 

[gocgo]

Both Nolasco and Santana are north of 30.  The Twins would be wise to trade both prior to the wheels (which are already wobbling) coming off.

[HitInAPinch]

Ervin Santana is now 33.  His value to the Twins would be as an innings eater, giving the bullpen a break while the new starters get acclimated.  After a poor 2012 season, he hasn't been that since.  Maybe the Rangers think that the Texas heat will bring out Santana's best.  I'm thinking that would be a move of last resort. 

[d-mac]

 

I am not as confident in trading Santana. Something is not right. He is laboring to get through 6 innings throwing a lot more pitches. This year he is over 100 pitches per 6 innings. Last year it was 93. In KC it was 90. I am not sure how to compare Atlanta since NL pitchers have the advantage of fewer DHs and disadvantage of getting pulled strategically for a pinch hitter.

The increase is batters fouling off pitches that were once swinging strikes. Without the ability to miss bats, he has become more similar to Mike Pelfrey than the pitcher he was in 2013-14. His velocity remains the same but he really has no more space to decline and still be effective. I don't think they need a good return if they can get out of their 2017-2018 commitment.

 

I think this is the key here. I worry about being stuck with him if he continues to deteriorate. Let's not wait for his value to go to zero like it did with Perkins and Hughes. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

Bernadino tweets that the Orioles, Blue Jays, Mets, Marlins and A's have all had scouts at Target Field.

 

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino

What? Are they checking out the hotdogs? The grass?

[wsnydes]

 

What? Are they checking out the hotdogs? The grass?

Craft beer selection, duh!

[Dave The Dastardly]

Okay, let's get real here. I mean I want the Twinkies to shut the geriatric ward and start creating room for the "prospects' languishing in the minor leagues, but come on, actually get something of value in trade for guys like Santana and Nolasco? You can't buy medicinal marijuana that can make any rational person believe this. For one thing; the Twins are known throughout the league as the "mark"; the team you can get something for nothing from. And that's if you're a poor negotiator. If you're a decent negotiator you can get the Twinkies to pay you to take decent players off their hands. But if the Twinks are peddling marginal players... well then you raid their farm system and steal a couple of those "prospects" that the Twinksters have stranded back on the farm because they haven't been pronounced "ready" enough to carry on the proud franchise's winning tradition at the major league level. Guffaw! (Always wanted to use that word somewhere. Seems as good a place as any.)

 

Net result for Twinkdom; no highly paid marginal players, no prospects left to bring up to the majors, open season on signing marginal players on the downside of their careers from the scrap heap next spring. Business as usual!

[laloesch]

 

Okay, let's get real here. I mean I want the Twinkies to shut the geriatric ward and start creating room for the "prospects' languishing in the minor leagues, but come on, actually get something of value in trade for guys like Santana and

Nolasco?

 

 

No disrespect intended Dave, but this is a ridiculous statement.  Santana has certainly been a viable #3 or #4 starter this year.  He has CERTAINLY NOT been backed by the offense which has skewed his win total in a very negative way.  He should be 6-3 instead of 2-7.  His run support is 3.15 per 9. 

[tobi0040]

I guess the point for me is, we are in a position where we need to sign a FA starter next offseason. We definitely do if we trade Ervin. How does his 2/27 compare with what we can get on the FA market? Because if a pitcher like Mike Leake gets 5/80 and Nolasco and Ervin 4/50.....than 2/27 isn't the end of the world.

 

If we can get a good piece, especially if we can get a prospect in AAA who can pitch for us next year by all means. But he is a guy that might actually help us piece together a halway competent rotation

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I understand the comments here about the decline in Santana effectiveness. I agree that it’s unlikely to improve and he is certainly susceptible to a further decline in the future. The problem I see is we have no replacement unless we want to go to a rotation made entirely of unproven young pitchers.

At the moment?  Perhaps.  But the Twins could shed up to $34 million by shedding Santana.  They could easily afford a Doug Fister ($7 mil) or Colby Lewis ($6 mil) type in the offseason if they so desired a veteran starter.  Heck, even Tommy Milone at his arbitration salary might be able to fill that void, if needed.