Chthulu Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Author Posted May 13, 2016 Yea, i think May could be a great closer actually. He has 25 Major League starts and has barely got to the 6th inning. Mainly because of his lack of control. Yes he gets K's, but he also walks a lot of batters. Even in the Minors he struggled as a starter to get to the 7th inning because he was all over the place.Terrible Tommy as everyone says avg over 6 IP p/start in the Minors where May is just over 5 IP per start. Tommy also had a 5 to 1 rate of K's to BB. May was 2.5 to 1. Now May certainly has better stuff than Milone, but in the long run he is at best a #3 starter which is fine. But i really think he could be a dominant closer. And right now the Twins need to find a dominant closer. Needing a dominant closer would imply that the Twins have a lead going into the ninth. They have plenty of time to try and develop someone who's built to be a reliever into a closer. And again, if he doesn't work out as a starter then you can explore the closer option. I just feel there's no reason to not give him another go.
jimmer Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trevor-may-be-worth-watching/
nicksaviking Community Moderator Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Yea, i think May could be a great closer actually. He has 25 Major League starts and has barely got to the 6th inning. Mainly because of his lack of control. Yes he gets K's, but he also walks a lot of batters. Even in the Minors he struggled as a starter to get to the 7th inning because he was all over the place.Terrible Tommy as everyone says avg over 6 IP p/start in the Minors where May is just over 5 IP per start. Tommy also had a 5 to 1 rate of K's to BB. May was 2.5 to 1. Now May certainly has better stuff than Milone, but in the long run he is at best a #3 starter which is fine. But i really think he could be a dominant closer. And right now the Twins need to find a dominant closer.A number 3 starter will throw over three times the number of innings a reliever will. Why would you waste all those innings? Also, May never made it past six innings because both Gardenhire and Molitor don't trust young pitchers and pull them early.
jorgenswest Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 May's only recent injury was last year as a reliever. He also missed the future's game in the minors but not any real games. It was likely more about managing his innings than an injury. Quote from article last September. http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/10/05/twinsights-bullpen-revelation-trevor-may-would-rather-start-in-2016/ May also wonders if the lower-back spasms that plagued him over the final five-plus weeks would have be easier to ward off he’d remained in the rotation. In his starter days his hip would usually bother him in August, but he was able to manage the problem better with at least four days of rest between starts.He is more valuable if he can start. The Twins need starters beyond Duffey and Berrios. Putting him in the rotation this year makes sense.
CampQ Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Being a good reliever now doesn't have to mean he should be a reliever. he's a good pitcher, he's probably developing, and you want to investigate, especially when we are an awful team. You get to take a look at him in a season that has less entertainment value than being trapped in quicksand.
DocBauer Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 May was acquired by the Twins as a strapping, hard throwing SP. He has the frame and stuff to be a workhorse and throw many innings. No scouting report I ever read had him as a proverbial Ace, but all had him as a potential #2 SP, with a floor as a solid #3, and at worst, a #4 who could eat innings. The issue was not stuff, or endurance, but simply control to be effective enough as a 2 vs a 3 or 4 SP. And then, he found control. Like almost any young pitcher, he had a few bumps in the road. Witness Berrios, this season, everyone's darling and hope, showing great stuff and potential, but hitting a couple bumps as he acclimated to the ML. May wasn't great in 2015 as a SP, but he was OK. And he was getting a groove, and IMPROVING start to start. But the Twins had contention hopes, and TR brought in Jepsen and nobody else, so they moved May to the bullpen to help out. And he did great. And he probably has the potential to be a great RP. And right now, it could be debated if the Twins even need a closer, the truth is, with Jepsen regressing so much, a strong arguement could be made for May to audition for the role. But what helps the Twins in the long run more? Developing May in to a potential closer, or top set up man, OR, taking his arsenal of stuff and seeing what you may have in him as a viable, quality SP? Couldn't you always move him back to the pen at a later date?
Thrylos Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 A quick Google search shows that 18 days around the Futures Game in 2014 seems to be the ONLY time he's missed due to injury during his 9 year professional career.That sounds pretty darn durable to me.Someone please point out any that I might have missed. And that was because of a calf injury by a batted ball IIRC. Not arm, back or shoulder.
Badsmerf Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Hughes has to be getting close to the end of his leash in the rotation. This is becoming a trend instead of a bump in the road. Since Berrios is in the rotation, the next guys in line aren't really MLB arms. The problem here, is Molitor IMO. He moved May to the bullpen in the first place (getting pissed again). Now, he would have to move him back. What a terrible decision in 2015. He should have let Pelfrey pout or just cut his ass. I've really been uninspired with Molitor. The evidence is mounting, and its not looking good.
Thrylos Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 May wasn't great in 2015 as a SP, but he was OK. SSS but a comparison with everyone's darlings: Berrios 2016: 5.95 FIP, 1.744 WHIP (.394 BABIP), 11.9 K/9, 5.0 BB/9Duffey career SP: 3.50 FIP, 1.27 WHIP (.308 BABIP), 8.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9May career SP: 3.85 FIP, 1.51 WHIP (.354 BABIP), 8.2 K.8, 2.7 BB/9 May as a starter was much better than Berrios has been so far and pretty close to Duffey, if you normalize WHIP for BABIP. Plus he has improved as a pitcher the last season an a half. If you want Berrios in the rotation, you better want May more
nytwinsfan Provisional Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 By June 1st I want: Rotation: Berrios, Meyer, May, Duffey, GibsonBullpen: Hughes (long relief), Santana, Jepsen, Abad, Tonkin, Chargois, Pressly and/or RogersTraded: Nolasco, Milone
sorney Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Interesting comparison. Wade Davis was a clear failure as a starter and was given plenty of time to prove that, and Betances had exactly one start in the majors about 5 years ago and lasted a whopping 2 innings. He was never going to be a starter. Comparing May's starter career to theirs is like comparing monkeys to lizards.The old Monkey/Lizard comparison...one of my all-time favorites
Thrylos Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 The old Monkey/Lizard comparison...one of my all-time favorites http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20080926135112/starwars/images/c/c9/Monkey-lizard_UA.jpg
Otto von Ballpark Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Has there been any rumblings that the Twins might actually consider this? May to the rotation, I mean, not the monkey/lizard thing. If anything, the recent trend for May has been toward shorter 1-inning appearances. I think their lack of offseason bullpen moves, and issues with Perkins/Jepsen/Fien so far, pretty much guarantees May will be in the bullpen all season. When Gibson comes back, they will have 6 starters, and I'd guess that Milone might get another shot before May, as well as Dean and Rogers particularly for shorter-term spot start duty.
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Dreamers. This FO is not going to do this.
nytwinsfan Provisional Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Dreamers. This FO is not going to do this.If we limited this discussion board to things the FO might actually do it would be pretty effing boring around here, no?
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 If we limited this discussion board to things the FO might actually do it would be pretty effing boring around here, no?Yes, yes it would.
SirLoin Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 I'd flip Hughes with May and let Hughes close for a while. He was lights out as Rivera's set up man, and likely alright until Burdi gets his act together.
Thrylos Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 If we limited this discussion board to things the FO might actually do it would be pretty effing boring around here, no? nah. It would be just like the articles
d-mac Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 So was May. lol, what? I prefer this response: https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/378800000697945639/a7eeae038851851a2b0507cca1917b04.jpeg
d-mac Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Yea, i think May could be a great closer actually. He has 25 Major League starts and has barely got to the 6th inning. Mainly because of his lack of control. Yes he gets K's, but he also walks a lot of batters. Even in the Minors he struggled as a starter to get to the 7th inning because he was all over the place.Terrible Tommy as everyone says avg over 6 IP p/start in the Minors where May is just over 5 IP per start. Tommy also had a 5 to 1 rate of K's to BB. May was 2.5 to 1. Now May certainly has better stuff than Milone, but in the long run he is at best a #3 starter which is fine. But i really think he could be a dominant closer. And right now the Twins need to find a dominant closer.You want to talk about walks? As a starter in 2015 May's walk rate, 5%, was only second to Hughes' 2.5% on the team.
d-mac Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 May was acquired by the Twins as a strapping, hard throwing SP. He has the frame and stuff to be a workhorse and throw many innings. No scouting report I ever read had him as a proverbial Ace, but all had him as a potential #2 SP, with a floor as a solid #3, and at worst, a #4 who could eat innings. The issue was not stuff, or endurance, but simply control to be effective enough as a 2 vs a 3 or 4 SP. And then, he found control.Like almost any young pitcher, he had a few bumps in the road. Witness Berrios, this season, everyone's darling and hope, showing great stuff and potential, but hitting a couple bumps as he acclimated to the ML. May wasn't great in 2015 as a SP, but he was OK. And he was getting a groove, and IMPROVING start to start. But the Twins had contention hopes, and TR brought in Jepsen and nobody else, so they moved May to the bullpen to help out. And he did great. And he probably has the potential to be a great RP. And right now, it could be debated if the Twins even need a closer, the truth is, with Jepsen regressing so much, a strong arguement could be made for May to audition for the role.But what helps the Twins in the long run more? Developing May in to a potential closer, or top set up man, OR, taking his arsenal of stuff and seeing what you may have in him as a viable, quality SP? Couldn't you always move him back to the pen at a later date? It's so logical that my brain hurts trying to understand any counter argument.
DaveW Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 If we limited this discussion board to things the FO might actually do it would be pretty effing boring around here, no?Plenty of topics! How many years will they extend Suzuki for?How many more former no hit twins will they pick up off the waiver wire?
DaveW Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Sadly I think the only shot May has this year to start is for Ryan to be fired. Ryan is way too stubborn to ever actually admidt he was actually "wrong" so thus we are stuck with Sano in RF, May in the pen and Hughes in the rotation all year long. It's just so so so stupid that May is still in the bullpen. What is amazing is its not even the stupidest roster decision currently playing out on this team, which of course is Sano in RF.
bluechipper Provisional Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 By June 1st I want: Rotation: Berrios, Meyer, May, Duffey, GibsonBullpen: Hughes (long relief), Santana, Jepsen, Abad, Tonkin, Chargois, Pressly and/or RogersTraded: Nolasco, Milone You had me until the Ervin Santana to the bullpen part. He's got a 8.5 K/9 on the year and an ERA at 3.86, and that's with him giving up a career high .342 BABIP.
Thrylos Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Sadly I think the only shot May has this year to start is for Ryan to be fired. What exactly is sad about Ryan getting fired (or rather re-retiring?)
d-mac Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 For those that think May was a terrible, washed, up, no-future starter at 25- I've got some stats. And no, they don't support your opinions. All pitchers that started more than two games in 2015 for the Twins (Sorry, J.R. Graham). Numbers as starters: Duffey: 10 GS, 58 IP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.83 SIERAGibson: 32 GS, 194.2 IP, 3.95 xFIP, 4.12 SIERAMay: 16GS, 83.1 IP, 3.96 xFIP, 3.86 SIERANolasco: 8GS. 35.1 IP, 4.21 xFIP, 4.32 SIERAMilone: 23 GS, 127.2 IP, 4.25 xFIP, 4.43 SIERAHughes: 25 GS, 152.1 IP, 4.30 xFIP, 4.39Santana: 17 GS, 108 IP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.43 SIERAPelfrey: 30 GS, 164.2 IP, 4.45 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA So May was #3 in xFIP and #2 in SIERA (like xFIP, but it adjusts for batted ball type) last year. He was our second best starter last year. Also, what the hell were we paying Pelfrey for?
Thrylos Old-Timey Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Also, what the hell were we paying Pelfrey for? Believe it or not, he is worse now for the Tigers
d-mac Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 You had me until the Ervin Santana to the bullpen part. He's got a 8.5 K/9 on the year and an ERA at 3.86, and that's with him giving up a career high .342 BABIP. I don't think Santana is as good as people are giving him credit on TD for. Of the Twins pitchers he had the second lowest BABIP (after Milone) last year. He had a xFIP and SIERA of 4.42 and 4.43, that's Mike Pelfrey level! He was super lucky to have a 4.00 ERA last year. This year he's got xFIP of 4.23 and SIERA of 4.39 and career high walk rate leading to an awful 2:1 K:BB ratio.
Badsmerf Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Also, what the hell were we paying Pelfrey for?Not only that... but he is the one whom displaced May in the rotation.
Hrbowski Verified Member Posted May 13, 2016 Posted May 13, 2016 Hrb, you might just get your wish at some point, but don't you think it would be prudent to build him up as a starter and analyze what we have in him instead of branding him a bullpen arm when he really has not had the chance to be a starter at the MLB level. He needs more than the 25 starts for us to come to a final conclusion. He did have some bright performances last year out of the starter's role and there is nothing left to lose this year. Executing this really does not have any consequences.The thing that I'm worried about is that if we send him down now we use up an option year, so if we do move him to a starter we need to first stretch him out as a long reliever.
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