Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[nicksaviking]

 

Mike: Seems like the holdup on the Twins trading Dozier to the Dodgers is the isistance on getting 2 MLB-ready prospects from the Dodgers. Are the Dodgers being unreasonable by trying to hold on to both DeLeon and Stewart?

Klaw: I don’t think that’s an unfair ask for the Twins, but that would severely cut into the Dodgers’ starting pitching depth, and I think the result would reduce the Dodgers’ potential gains from adding Dozier.

 

That is a good point. I wonder if it's possible that one or both teams actually put a higher value on Stewart than a Buehler or even an Alvarez due to Stewart's ability to contribute now. It does always seem that front offices put much more weight on "what can you do for me now" than pundits do.

 

Of course the Twins could help remedy the Dodgers starting pitching depth should either team be interested in expanding the trade.

[drjim]

 

One of the most reasonable takes I've heard on the situation thus far.

 

It's a fair argument from both sides, which is probably why we haven't seen a deal announced yet.

 

Also might make Alvarez more doable instead of Stewart.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

That is a good point. I wonder if it's possible that one or both teams actually put a higher value on Stewart than a Buehler or even an Alvarez due to Stewart's ability to contribute now. It does always seem that front offices put much more weight on "what can you do for me now" than pundits do.

 

Of course the Twins could help remedy the Dodgers starting pitching depth should either team be interested in expanding the trade.

 

FanGraph's Depth Charts suggest the Dodgers will have 5 starting pitchers with a WAR greater than or equal to ESan. ESan leads our pitching Depth Chart, so I cannot see anything current we could give the Dodgers to make them happy.

 

I think asking for two MLB ready pitchers is a little steep. I say this believing that Dozier would be a huge add to the Dodgers.

[The Wise One]

 

I think you're missing the point.  I think the last decade or so has shown us that for hitters their peak value is rarely in July.  

 

12 months from now you have Dozier with only one year of team control, which is a knock on his value.  He'd have to increase his production for what you claim to be true.

It is not unreasonable to think that the teams trading for Cespedes and Zobrist  in the middle of the year gave up more than what teams gave up during the off season

[The Wise One]

 

I'm saying the Rays took a package with MLB players, i.e. Less risk and less upside, intentionally so they could try to continue their window of contention the following year. The cost of acquiring young players that have shown themselves to be MLB quality is very high. Moncada could turn out to be Altuve or he could be Delmon Young. There is also the matter of the premium you pay to acquire pitching versus a 2B.

The Rays were not contending with Price. Replacing him in the rotation with Smyly is not going to keep  the team at the same level.   Adams was a low minor top 100 prospect, Nick Franklin was still a recent top 100 prospect at the time of the trade.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It is not unreasonable to think that the teams trading for Cespedes and Zobrist  in the middle of the year gave up more than what teams gave up during the off season

 

Cespedes returned the Mets 7th and 16th best prospects.  That would be like us taking Buehler and some guy we haven't even talked about.  

 

Zobrist returned the Royals' 3rd best prospect, but a guy who was a fringe top 100 in all of baseball.

 

Neither of these deals remotely approach a deal headlined by DeLeon.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins' Zips projections just went up:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

 

 

[markos]

 

Cespedes returned the Mets 7th and 16th best prospects.  That would be like us taking Buehler and some guy we haven't even talked about.  

 

Zobrist returned the Royals' 3rd best prospect, but a guy who was a fringe top 100 in all of baseball.

 

Neither of these deals remotely approach a deal headlined by DeLeon.

But it is hard to gauge how those prospects were valued at the deadline. Arguably, both headliners had trended up quite a bit by the trade deadline. The following January, BA had Fulmer and Manaea ranked at #47 and #48 overall, which isn't too far off of where De Leon is going to be ranked.

[Mike Frasier Law]

Fangraphs just published their ZiPS projections for the Twins:  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

 

These are completely computer based projections, so take them with a grain of salt. But, assuming the roster doesn't change at all, it projects a decent step forward in 2017.

[jimmer]

Completely computer based, but based on programs written by humans based on player means and historical trends. ZiPS isnt like a magic 8 ball :-)

 

 

Anyway, projections should be taken with a grain of salt including humans just using their gut :-)

[Mike Frasier Law]

And another Fangraphs article - from a fantasy baseball perspective - talking about Buxton and Sano.  http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/twin-mid-round-mancrushes-buxton-and-sano/

[drjim]

Projections like ZIPS are usually accurate in the aggregate while less reliable in the specific, especially for young players.

 

Good to see a little bit of a rebound, maybe 20% chance to compete was a little light...

[Vanimal46]

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit just thinking of the slight possibility Robbie Grossman would receive 520 PAs.... And D Santana receiving 428 PAs.  

[jimmer]

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit just thinking of the slight possibility Robbie Grossman would receive 520 PAs.... And D Santana receiving 428 PAs.

just remember projections are not predictions and that should settle your stomach a bit :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

But it is hard to gauge how those prospects were valued at the deadline. Arguably, both headliners had trended up quite a bit by the trade deadline. The following January, BA had Fulmer and Manaea ranked at #47 and #48 overall, which isn't too far off of where De Leon is going to be ranked.

That is fair. But then again, everybody here wants significantly MORE than just De Leon. History doesn't suggest that is likely at the deadline (and might not be likely right now, apparently).

[TheLeviathan]

 

But it is hard to gauge how those prospects were valued at the deadline. Arguably, both headliners had trended up quite a bit by the trade deadline. The following January, BA had Fulmer and Manaea ranked at #47 and #48 overall, which isn't too far off of where De Leon is going to be ranked.

 

Remember, as spy pointed out, the argument is that we'll get more than Deleon + other good stuff.  Even if we didn't quibble about DeLeon vs. Fulmer, the argument of "wait until the deadline" has to show we can do better than DeLeon plus Buehler plus a third piece.  And neither the Zobrist or Cespedes deal is anywhere close to that.  DeLeon may be superior by himself, much less the quality of second and third pieces we are talking.

 

And, for the record, the prospect rankings I gave were for the mid-season BA rankings for those guys.  So that was relative value at the time.

[Thrylos]

Those Zips projections are nuts.  

Adding the top 15 position players' (disregarding Plouffe and Suzuki) zWAR is 27.2

Adding the top 15 pitchers' zWAR is 14.4

 

This is 41.6 wins above replacement.   A replacement team baseline is 48 wins.  So this projects the Twins to win 89.6 games in 2017.  

 

I would not take it to Vegas quite yet...

[jimmer]

Those Zips projections are nuts.

Adding the top 15 position players' (disregarding Plouffe and Suzuki) zWAR is 27.2

Adding the top 15 pitchers' zWAR is 14.4

 

This is 41.6 wins above replacement. A replacement team baseline is 48 wins. So this projects the Twins to win 89.6 games in 2017.

 

I would not take it to Vegas quite yet...

yeah, adding them up like that...doesnt really work that way. First, cause these arent predictions or overall team projections, these are individual projections. Second because playing time will be affected in a lot of ways. Injuries, not even spending significant time on the 25 man, their role, because some players will play above and below their means, etc, etc, etc.

 

Cant just add them up and figure thats what is actually going to happen or assume the people who make these projection systems think that either.

[BK432]

 

Those Zips projections are nuts.  

Adding the top 15 position players' (disregarding Plouffe and Suzuki) zWAR is 27.2

Adding the top 15 pitchers' zWAR is 14.4

 

This is 41.6 wins above replacement.   A replacement team baseline is 48 wins.  So this projects the Twins to win 89.6 games in 2017.  

 

I would not take it to Vegas quite yet...

 

Nor should you!

 

Last sentence of every ZiPS article on Fangraphs: "Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR."

[snepp]

Those Zips projections are nuts.  

Adding the top 15 position players' (disregarding Plouffe and Suzuki) zWAR is 27.2

Adding the top 15 pitchers' zWAR is 14.4

 

This is 41.6 wins above replacement.   A replacement team baseline is 48 wins.  So this projects the Twins to win 89.6 games in 2017.  

 

I would not take it to Vegas quite yet...

 

I'm quoting and echoing the following two posts just to reinforce that what you're doing here is absolutely not something that should be done, ever, with projections like this. Hopefully it stops someone else from doing the same in the future.

 

 

Jimmer:

yeah, adding them up like that...doesnt really work that way. First, cause these arent predictions or overall team projections, these are individual projections. Second because playing time will be affected in a lot of ways. Injuries, not even spending significant time on the 25 man, their role, because some players will play above and below their means, etc, etc, etc.

 

Cant just add them up and figure thats what is actually going to happen or assume the people who make these projection systems think that either.

 

 

BK432:

Nor should you!

 

Last sentence of every ZiPS article on Fangraphs: "Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR."

[jorgenswest]

Good projections are critical and important to success. I would think teams in house have much more detail in the data to develop their projections. The projections we can see will be far better than simply using 2016 data to forecast future performance. They won't be perfect. There is far too much randomness involved in human performance. That variability should not be an argument that they should be ignored. Great forecasts based on data and the eye of trained personnel is a key to success for any team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

just remember projections are not predictions and that should settle your stomach a bit :-)

 

The problem is using projections predictively

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Remember, as spy pointed out, the argument is that we'll get more than Deleon + other good stuff.  Even if we didn't quibble about DeLeon vs. Fulmer, the argument of "wait until the deadline" has to show we can do better than DeLeon plus Buehler plus a third piece.  And neither the Zobrist or Cespedes deal is anywhere close to that.  DeLeon may be superior by himself, much less the quality of second and third pieces we are talking.

 

And, for the record, the prospect rankings I gave were for the mid-season BA rankings for those guys.  So that was relative value at the time.

 

The other real problem is time value. I doubt you see a De Leon at the deadline. If he's still pitching well, he's in the rotation essentially making him untouchable. You may be looking at a fast rising Buehler in that scenario, but it puts us back a year too.  De Leon is the mix for the rotation this spring, Buehler will not be.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nor should you!

 

Last sentence of every ZiPS article on Fangraphs: "Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR."

 

Honestly though, if that's the advice, then it really means you should put little stock into projections at all. They are all generally rosy, especially if you're adding up every team's projections and seeing results that say 80+ wins.  Yeah, some can hit the low side, but if this is true, they miss high far more than they miss low.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Honestly though, if that's the advice, then it really means you should put little stock into projections at all. They are all generally rosy, especially if you're adding up every team's projections and seeing results that say 80+ wins.  Yeah, some can hit the low side, but if this is true, they miss high far more than they miss low.

 

No. The issue is that he doesn't project playing time. If you adjust for playing time then there's nothing wrong with using it as a team projection - Fangraphs already does this, though it is 50/50 between Steamer and ZiPS, with playing time projected manually by their staff.

 

Obviously, if you assume a team gets a thousand extra ABs because you didn't adjust for playing time, the resulting WAR will be too high. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No. The issue is that he doesn't project playing time. If you adjust for playing time then there's nothing wrong with using it as a team projection - Fangraphs already does this, though it is 50/50 between Steamer and ZiPS, with playing time projected manually by their staff.

 

Obviously, if you assume a team gets a thousand extra ABs because you didn't adjust for playing time, the resulting WAR will be too high. 

What if my projection includes 162 extra-inning games?

[ashbury]

What if my projection includes 162 extra-inning games?

Or everybody else's pitching staff going against us suddenly becomes the 2016 Twins.

[snepp]

 

Or everybody else's pitching staff going against us suddenly becomes the 2016 Twins.

 

60+ HR's for Dozier, book it.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

What if my projection includes 162 extra-inning games?

With our pitching staff? You hang yourself.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Or everybody else's pitching staff going against us suddenly becomes the 2016 Twins.

 

You go to Vegas and put $1000 on the Twins winning the division. Then sit back until October, when you retire.