Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

PB&Js
10:14 Hey Jeff, would the Dodgers be better served in terms of $/WAR by keeping De Leon and starting Austin Barnes at 2b than trading for Dozier? Seems it could be close on overall WAR as well, assuming a little regression from Dozier and met expectations for the other two.

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:15 The Dodgers really like Barnes as a catcher, so I don't think they want to move him off the position

[Mike Sixel]

James
10:26 Welcome back, Jeff! What would you consider a reasonable baseline for Max Kepler this season? .275/.350/.425 with 20-25 HRs, 80 RBIs and 12-15 SBs seems reasonable, but is he already in position to exceed those?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:26 Might be overselling the BA/OBP, and underselling the SLG. These days it's awfully difficult to bat .275, but Kepler should be at least a league-average regular

[BK432]

 

Mike*
9:11 Who do you think has the bigger downside? Dozier regression to mean or DeLeon not living up to expectations and/or injury?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:12 Dozier has averaged 4 WAR a year over the last four seasons. He's a really good player. De Leon is a pitching prospect with health questions. It's easily De Leon, which is among the reasons why him alone hasn't been sufficient to swing an exchange

 

*not me....

 

I don't know, man, there seems to be a lot of Mikes asking Twins-related questions and you keep denying it's you...

[d-mac]

 

I don't know, man, there seems to be a lot of Mikes asking Twins-related questions and you keep denying it's you...

 

Break out the tinfoil hat. It's conspiracy time!

[Mike Sixel]

I did ask a question, it was not answered. Maybe because I whined taht we set a record low temp here last night, and they all keep promising me it isn't really like this (Sullivan lives out here too).

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

For those of you who don't follow ZiPs projections, Jose De Leon's just came out not bad for a 24 year old starter:

 

22 GS, 111 IP, 0 97 H, 133 K, 31 BB, 18 HR, 10.78 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 3.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.5 zWAR

What were Berrios projections last year? They seem a little similar with their minor league success, but also with similar questions on HOW they achieved it, and whether it would translate well to the MLB.

 

Small samples, but both seemed to fail in those ways they were questioned in bigs.

[Mike Sixel]

11:03
Oggy: While it’s certainly true that there will be more buyers for Dozier at the deadline, isn’t there also the potential for there to be more 2B available because there will be more sellers? I’d think his value would be less because you could buy another suitable replacement at a lesser price, plus he’d be that much closer to FA.

 

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: There could be other players available, but Dozier is likely to be the best potentially available 2B. Maybe Kinsler would be available, but I expect the Tigers to be in the hunt. So then you’d be looking at…Forsythe? Cesar Hernandez? And teams always want to pick from the top of the crop

[PseudoSABR]

I'd like to see/hear Sullivan and Cameron debate the De Leon/Dozier trade.   

[jimmer]

 

I'd like to see/hear Sullivan and Cameron debate the De Leon/Dozier trade.   

Cameron would have some other who work for/chat for the site arguing against Sullivan too.  Not only about the trade, but disagreeing with Sullivan, in regards to the possible trade, saying value only goes up as the season goes on, it doesn't go down.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Cameron would have some other who work for/chat for the site arguing against Sullivan too.  Not only about the trade, but disagreeing with Sullivan, in regards to the possible trade, saying value only goes up as the season goes on, it doesn't go down.

I don't really care how many people or who specifically endorses which side, but to have two senior writers at fangraphs (reasonable evidenced-oriented people) disagree about the merits of a potential trade should demonstrate there's a range of reasonable attitudes to have about that trade.  

[Lonestar]

Bump

from KLAW's chat today:

 

"help decide a debate between friends. Dozier and Stewart to the Dodger for Jose De Leon and a low level prospect"

KLAW:

Which friend is the delusional Dodgers fan?

 

[Mike Sixel]

Bryan from Boise: Dodgers and Twins trade talks for Dozier, which side gives in 1st. Both have what the other needs and there really does not seem like another landing place for Dozier at this time.

 

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I can see the Dodgers getting annoyed and budging that very last bit they have to budge

 

earlier, he admits he has doubts about major trades at this point of the off season. Clearly, no one knows anything right now....

[Mike Sixel]

Kent Hrbek Human Shreck: Is Kepler good for 20 HR, 325 OBP?

 

1:08
Eno Sarris: yes.

[Mike Sixel]

1:27Steve: Yesterday Dave likened Moncada’s k issue to Buxton’s where people will bail too early. Do you agree or is he overhyped?

 

1:27   Eno Sarris: Feels like Buxton’s issues were more established while Moncada has been up and down in that regard.  Eno Sarris: I’m personally closer to out than in on Buxton but i’d give Moncada some leash.

[Mike Sixel]

PolancoMVP
12:56 Miguel Sano- are you a believer? Or is he another version of a Jay Buhner?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:58 Peak Jay Buhner was pretty good. Preferable to Ken Phelps! I think Sano is going to be a 35-HR, high OBP, high K masher. So I believe

[Mike Sixel]

I won't copy the whole thing....but KLAW says

 

97:  Kirilloff has more realistic offensive upside than anyone else in the system, and could be their top prospect if he has a really good year....

 

91:  Gonsalves: it starts with praising the twins for how they've developed him. "I think he's a fourth starter in the majors", but if the cutter works, it's possible I have underestimated him again

 

87: Kohl Stewart: teams are down on him, but KLAW thinks he needs to use more pitches to get Ks. Needs to figure it out mentally.....

 

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

PolancoMVP
12:56 Miguel Sano- are you a believer? Or is he another version of a Jay Buhner?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:58 Peak Jay Buhner was pretty good. Preferable to Ken Phelps! I think Sano is going to be a 35-HR, high OBP, high K masher. So I believe

I'm also a big believer in Sano still. Fangraphs' projections of Sano this year are encouraging.... between 28-34 HRs, 800+ OPS, and 3-4 WAR would be great. 

[Mike Sixel]

Dusty: Do you think Fernando Romero of the Twins has a good chance of becoming a frontline pitching prospect this year?

 

Klaw: Might already be one.

[nicksaviking]

 

87: Kohl Stewart: teams are down on him, but KLAW thinks he needs to use more pitches to get Ks. Needs to figure it out mentally.....

 

In other words, stop using your sinker as an out pitch?

 

There is a bit of that going around the organization. I think if the new front office feels similar to Klaw, we could be surprised by more than just Kohl Stewart.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In other words, stop using your sinker as an out pitch?

 

There is a bit of that going around the organization. I think if the new front office feels similar to Klaw, we could be surprised by more than just Kohl Stewart.

Stewart baffles me. A guy who sits mid 90s with a solid breaking ball but can't finish off batters in the lower minors.

 

Double-U. Tee. Eff.

[nicksaviking]

 

Stewart baffles me. A guy who sits mid 90s with a solid breaking ball but can't finish off batters in the lower minors.

 

Double-U. Tee. Eff.

 

Yeah, Mike Pelfrey, Kyle Gibson and Brandon Kintzler seem to have the same problem, what could they possibly all have in common......

 

Pelfrey and Kintzler may have an excuse because they don't have good breaking or off-speed pitches. Gibson does, as does Stewart so it appears.

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah, Mike Pelfrey, Kyle Gibson and Brandon Kintzler seem to have the same problem, what could they possibly all have in common......

 

Pelfrey and Kintzler may have an excuse because they don't have good breaking or off-speed pitches. Gibson does, as does Stewart so it appears.

It's like they took pitching lessons from this guy or something.... 

[Squirrel]

In other words, stop using your sinker as an out pitch?

 

There is a bit of that going around the organization. I think if the new front office feels similar to Klaw, we could be surprised by more than just Kohl Stewart.

I'm hoping so.

[TheLeviathan]

I tend to believe 2017 is going to make or break Kohl Stewart.  One more year of mulling around with inconsistency and lower expectations and I think it's time to give up the ghost.  Or he shocks us and gives us some hope in our pitching minors.

[Thrylos]

 

I tend to believe 2017 is going to make or break Kohl Stewart.  One more year of mulling around with inconsistency and lower expectations and I think it's time to give up the ghost.  Or he shocks us and gives us some hope in our pitching minors.

 

He is 22.  Not 26.  One year older than Lewis Thorpe whose last 2 seasons were worse than Stewart's, and any other pitcher's in the organization.

 

So how do you feel about Lewis Thorpe?

[TheLeviathan]

 

He is 22.  Not 26.  One year older than Lewis Thorpe whose last 2 seasons were worse than Stewart's, and any other pitcher's in the organization.

 

So how do you feel about Lewis Thorpe?

 

That he's significantly outperformed Stewart?  Or, maybe even more inarguably, that's he's significantly outperformed expectations as opposed to under-performing expectations.

[Thrylos]

 

That he's significantly outperformed Stewart?  Or, maybe even more inarguably, that's he's significantly outperformed expectations as opposed to under-performing expectations.

 

The last 2 seasons?

 

check again

[TheLeviathan]

 

The last 2 seasons?

 

check again

 

You mean last year when he struck out 90 guys in 140 innings and Thorpe was hurt?  What the hell kind of comparison is that?

 

Kohl Stewart was a top pick and he continues to strike out guys at a Nick Blackburnian pace.  That's an issue.

[nicksaviking]

He is 22.  Not 26.  One year older than Lewis Thorpe whose last 2 seasons were worse than Stewart's, and any other pitcher's in the organization.

 

So how do you feel about Lewis Thorpe?

Why would the way one feels about Thorpe have anything to do with how they feel about Stewart? One has had injury issues, the other has had performance issues.

 

And I have yet to see any prospect list with Thorpe ahead of Stewart, much to my personal chagrin.

[drivlikejehu]

I think the new front office is basically Stewart's only chance at this point, to be good and not just a AAAA journeyman type. I don't know how realistic it is, but I'd be curious to at least see what happened if Stewart started mixing in 4-seamers at the top of or above the strike zone.