Sorry...Buxton is a flop

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Bryant had missed half of 2014 due to injury, I think I can say safely that he would have spent more of 2015 in the minors.

No way.  The Cubs determination of Bryant's readiness had nothing to do with meeting some threshold of development time.

 

Now, obviously, if Bryant had sustained a wrist injury in 2014 and hit like garbage when he returned from it, sure the Cubs probably leave him in the minors longer.  But that is more like a lingering injury rather than lost development time.  It does not appear that a lingering injury was the case with Buxton last June, though.

 

Now, that obviously doesn't absolve the Twins of much -- they should have had other CF options last June and this spring, and it's their responsibility to effectively judge a player's readiness before promoting them -- but I think Buxton's struggles as a MLB hitter thus far are severe enough to suggest that any "rushing" isn't a huge factor.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No way.  The Cubs determination of Bryant's readiness had nothing to do with meeting some threshold of development time.

 

Now, obviously, if Bryant had sustained a wrist injury in 2014 and hit like garbage when he returned from it, sure the Cubs probably leave him in the minors longer.  But that is more like a lingering injury rather than lost development time.  It does not appear that a lingering injury was the case with Buxton last June, though.

 

Now, that obviously doesn't absolve the Twins of much -- they should have had other CF options last June and this spring, and it's their responsibility to effectively judge a player's readiness before promoting them -- but I think Buxton's struggles as a MLB hitter thus far are severe enough to suggest that any "rushing" isn't a huge factor.

While I agree the Cubs didn't put a number on Bryant's "development time", they shuffled him off to AAA for 300 PAs before promoting him to Chicago. That's a luxury Buxton didn't receive and obviously, it's development Byron could use.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No way.  The Cubs determination of Bryant's readiness had nothing to do with meeting some threshold of development time.

 

Now, obviously, if Bryant had sustained a wrist injury in 2014 and hit like garbage when he returned from it, sure the Cubs probably leave him in the minors longer.  But that is more like a lingering injury rather than lost development time.  It does not appear that a lingering injury was the case with Buxton last June, though.

 

Now, that obviously doesn't absolve the Twins of much -- they should have had other CF options last June and this spring, and it's their responsibility to effectively judge a player's readiness before promoting them -- but I think Buxton's struggles as a MLB hitter thus far are severe enough to suggest that any "rushing" isn't a huge factor.

 

Um, have we already forgotten that he was sent down to start the 2015 season?  That move prompted  a grievance. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Um, have we already forgotten that he was sent down to start the 2015 season?  That move prompted  a grievance. 

That supports my point.  The Cubs plan for Bryant, dating back probably to the start of the 2014 season, was based on service time.  NOT meeting some threshold of minor league development time.

 

If he got injured in his first AAA game in 2014, and returned in the spring of 2015 with the same spring / early season performance, I strongly suspect he would have been promoted at exactly the same time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While I agree the Cubs didn't put a number on Bryant's "development time", they shuffled him off to AAA for 300 PAs before promoting him to Chicago. That's a luxury Buxton didn't receive and obviously, it's development Byron could use.

Sure, no argument there.  And that's on the Twins for their failure to evaluate properly.  But Bryant was likely deemed ready by the Cubs even without those AAA PAs.

[tobi0040]

 

That supports my point.  The Cubs plan for Bryant, dating back probably to the start of the 2014 season, was based on service time.  NOT meeting some threshold of minor league development time.

 

If he got injured in his first AAA game in 2014, and returned in the spring of 2015 with the same spring / early season performance, I strongly suspect he would have been promoted at exactly the same time.

 

You are right.  The other issue is comparing high school players and college players.  Bryant is 3 years older than Buxton. 

 

University of San Diego plays a lot better competition than Appling HS does (Vanderbilt, Pepperdine, Cal Fullterton, etc.)

[Riverbrian]

It depends on each player's ability and perhaps most importantly opportunity. 

 

Bryant was over cooked in the minors before he was finally called up but he has nothing to do with Buxton in my opinion. 

 

I'm pretty sure Buxton was rushed because he didn't look very ready in 2015 and Terry Ryan admitted that he was rushed in 2015 because they didn't have any other options.

 

Now... I have no idea what the Twins organization saw or felt changed between October 2015 and April 2016 to make them think that he was now ready. Perhaps they went to his backyard in Georgia in December and threw him some whiffle balls. 

 

He clearly wasn't ready and they left themselves with no options so Buxton was handed a job before he was ready and therefore rushed. 

 

[laloesch]

I hope Buxton stays in AAA for most of the season if not the whole season.  It's painfully obvious that he's overwhelmed and over matched up here and is flat out NOT ready.  Do him and the team a favor and season him in Rochester.  There's no reason to rush a raw 22 year old when we have a bunch of other guys waiting to get there shot like Kepler and some stop gap options like Mastroianni.  

 

I understand the frustration and how disappointing this seems but in all seriousness he can't handle off-speed / breaking ball pitches and doesn't seem to have a discerning eye at the plate.  He's also a free swinger and certainly doesn't have the build of a power hitter.  All those things coupled together and you have a sub .200 hitter.

 

Teams will exploit his free swinging tendencies over and over and over again if given the chance.  The problem is that A LOT of these recent call ups seem to have the same issue to a certain degree.  Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Arcia, etc. all struggle with pitch recognition and swing for the moon every single pitch.  They don't seem to understand that striking out all the time is a big problem.  

 

Some of these struggles can be attributed to the transition from the fastball dominated minor leagues to the majors were a much greater percentage of breaking balls are thrown.  But some of this falls on the coaching staff and manager.  Guys that show no plate discipline should be benched or sent down IMMEDIATELY.  It's not acceptable to go into the batter box and do your own thing all the time when games are on the line.  There has to be discipline and it is lacking.  

 

I know it's way early to be casting judgement on Buxton, but to be perfectly honest i just don't see the signs off a top five draft pick let alone a five tool player beyond his crazy speed.  I hope i'm wrong but the warning signs were everywhere.  Kid plays out of his mind for a tiny school in the middle of nowhere Georgia against inferior pitching.  And while the minors are a step above high school he still didn't see much off speed / breaking ball pitches and was able to conceal that gaping hole in his game (pitch recognition).  The result, he swings at everything and anything and looks totally lost in the batters box. 

 

What the Twins saw?  A speed Gonzalez outfielder with a slap hitter physique.  It was like deja vu  to Terry Ryan, back to the mid 2000's piranhas with Jason Tyner, Nick Punto, Luis Castillo and Jason Bartlett and he was hooked.  

 

Bust pick IMO.....    

[spinowner]

 

I know it's way early to be casting judgement on Buxton

 

Bust pick IMO.....    

If it's way early to be casting judgement then it's way early to call his selection a bust pick.

[markos]

 

Sure, no argument there.  And that's on the Twins for their failure to evaluate properly.  But Bryant was likely deemed ready by the Cubs even without those AAA PAs.

That is probably true. But Bryant is a different class of hitter than Buxton. Bryant's work up to that point: dominating college, low-A, high-A and the fall league in 2013 (wRC+ > 200 at all stops), followed by dominating AA to start 2014 (wRC+ of 220).

 

Going back to your earlier comment, Buxton had a 135 wRC+ in AA. Here is the list of prospects from my earlier list that were worse at the same level:

Lindor (109)

Swihart (131)

Orlando Arcia (126)

JP Crawford (121) <- still at AA

Polanco (112)

 

Above 150:

Seager (154)

Pederson (155)

Sano (156)

Bogaerts (153)

Taveras (159)

Baez (180)

Franco (153)

Springer (174)

 

Above 200:

Bryant (220)

Correa (226)

 

These aren't all exact apple-to-apple comparisons because there are different ages and number of at bats. But broadly speaking, Buxton was both one of the worst performers AND one of the least experienced top prospects to be called up recently.

[markos]

 

You are right.  The other issue is comparing high school players and college players.  Bryant is 3 years older than Buxton. 

 

University of San Diego plays a lot better competition than Appling HS does (Vanderbilt, Pepperdine, Cal Fullterton, etc.)

For what it's worth, Bryant (Jan 1993) is only 23 months older than Buxton (Dec 1994).

[Vanimal46]

 

I know it's way early to be casting judgement on Buxton, but to be perfectly honest i just don't see the signs off a top five draft pick let alone a five tool player beyond his crazy speed.  I hope i'm wrong but the warning signs were everywhere.   

 

Bust pick IMO.....    

 

If Buxton indeed is a bust pick, he's fooled nearly every baseball blogger/scout out there. All we've heard and read over the last 3 years is Buxton is the #1 or #2 ranked prospect in the MLB... 

[laloesch]

 

If Buxton indeed is a bust pick, he's fooled nearly every baseball blogger/scout out there. All we've heard and read over the last 3 years is Buxton is the #1 or #2 ranked prospect in the MLB... 

 

 

Maybe he has.

[Riverbrian]

 

I hope Buxton stays in AAA for most of the season if not the whole season.  It's painfully obvious that he's overwhelmed and over matched up here and is flat out NOT ready.  Do him and the team a favor and season him in Rochester.  There's no reason to rush a raw 22 year old when we have a bunch of other guys waiting to get there shot like Kepler and some stop gap options like Mastroianni.  

 

I understand the frustration and how disappointing this seemsbut in all seriousness he can't handle off-speed / breaking ball pitches and doesn't seem to have a discerning eye at the plate.  He's also a free swinger and certainly doesn't have the build of a power hitter.  All those things coupled together and you have a sub .200 hitter.

 

Teams will exploit his free swinging tendencies over and over and over again if given the chance.  The problem is that A LOT of these recent call ups seem to have the same issue to a certain degree.  Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Arcia, etc. all struggle with pitch recognition and swing for the moon every single pitch.  They don't seem to understand that striking out all the time is a big problem.  

 

Some of these struggles can be attributed to the transition from the fastball dominated minor leagues to the majors were a much greater percentage of breaking balls are thrown.  But some of this falls on the coaching staff and manager.  Guys that show no plate discipline should be benched or sent down IMMEDIATELY.  It's not acceptable to go into the batter box and do your own thing all the time when games are on the line.  There has to be discipline and it is lacking.  

 

I know it's way early to be casting judgement on Buxton, but to be perfectly honest i just don't see the signs off a top five draft pick let alone a five tool player beyond his crazy speed.  I hope i'm wrong but the warning signs were everywhere.  Kid plays out of his mind for a tiny school in the middle of nowhere Georgia against inferior pitching.  And while the minors are a step above high school he still didn't see much off speed / breaking ball pitches and was able to conceal the hole in his game (pitch recognition).  The result, he swings at everything and anything.  

 

What the Twins saw?  A speed Gonzalez outfielder with a slap hitter physique.  It was like deja vu  to Terry Ryan, back to the mid 2000's piranhas with Jason Tyner, Nick Punto, Luis Castillo and Jason Bartlett and he was hooked.  

 

Bust pick IMO.....    

 

I think Buck will be one of the greatest players in Minnesota Twins History when it's all said and done.

 

I also think that he will go from stuggling to amazing in the blink of an eye and I feel this way because of the reasons you list above. 

 

He's one of the fastest players in the game and he has struck out 50% of the time and when he made contact (23 times) he had a 26% ground ball rate. He put the ball in play 6 times on the ground. 

 

It really simple...  You are more likely to get on base with a ground ball than you are with a fly ball. If you have world class speed... You are more like to increase your BABIP because you can simply do it with speed when others can't. 

 

Now... If you can... go back and watch some of his swings this year. What I notice fairly consistently is an upward angle. Swinging like that makes... making contact... nearly impossible. Your bat is moving at a different angle than the baseball is coming in. This means you have to time it perfectly and it leads to strikeouts and when you do contact perfectly... a ball is hit into the air. 

 

I really think Buxton doesn't realize what kind of player he is.

 

When someone is able to get through to him that he really shouldn't try to hit the ball 500 feet and he believes it... I think we will get the Buxton that we are hoping to get.  

 

I think it will happen with a snap of the finger but how long before the finger snaps is the hard to know... That's gonna be up to Buck.  

[laloesch]

 

I think Buck will be one of the greatest players in Minnesota Twins History when it's all said and done.

 

I also think that he will go from stuggling to amazing in the blink of an eye and I feel this way because of the reasons you list above. 

 

He's one of the fastest players in the game and he has struck out 50% of the time and when he made contact (23 times) he had a 26% ground ball rate. He put the ball in play 6 times on the ground. 

 

It really simple...  You are more likely to get on base with a ground ball than you are with a fly ball. If you have world class speed... You are more like to increase your BABIP because you can simply do it with speed when others can't. 

 

Now... If you can... go back and watch some of his swings this year. What I notice fairly consistently is an upward angle. Swinging like that makes... making contact... nearly impossible. Your bat is moving at a different angle than the baseball is coming in. This means you have to time it perfectly and it leads to strikeouts and when you do contact perfectly... a ball is hit into the air. 

 

I really think Buxton doesn't realize what kind of player he is.

 

When someone is able to get through to him that he really shouldn't try to hit the ball 500 feet and he believes it... I think we will get the Buxton that we are hoping to get.  

 

I think it will happen with a snap of the finger but how long before the finger snaps is the hard to know... That's gonna be up to Buck.  

 

I hope your right, because we need him.

[twinssporto]

I don't think Buxton will be a bust.  As most of you have already said, "the kid is only 22"!  Look at what he did a few games back when he stretched a single into a double and ultimately scored a run based on his speed alone.  That's what I call "manufacturing a run".  That was impressive....His defensive skills in CF are awesome and I don't think anyone will argue that. He truly looks like he is playing at another level when on base or patrolling CF.

 

With some time and a little more instruction this kid will hopefully be able to start hitting.  In reality the only issue this kid seems to have at the moment is hitting ML pitching (yes, I know thats a biggie).  However, he had good numbers in the minors so I don't see why he won't eventually start hitting at the ML level too.  Hitting at the ML level is difficult and takes time (for many players both good and great) to excel at.  

 

This kid will eventually turn into a superstar...Lord willing.

[jimmer]

 

His defensive skills in CF are awesome and I don't think anyone will argue that. He truly looks like he is playing at another level when on base or patrolling CF.

 

The level he looks like he's playing while on defense and on base (on the rare occasion he is on base) is the major league level.

[Eazy]

One thing to consider when looking at his minor league numbers is that his game is predicated on speed which I think can do a lot more in terms of producing a gaudy hitting line in the minors than it can in the majors where the fielders are better.  So for me personally I take Buxton's minor league line with a grain of salt more so than  I would a guy like Bryant who is more of a pure hitter.  I might be wrong, but I certainly think its something that should be considered.

 

Unfortunately it doesn't seem Fangraphs has batted ball data for the minors.

[Champuckett]

Danny Goodwin

Todd Van Poppel

Brooks Kieschnick

 

Byron Buxton?

[markos]

 

One thing to consider when looking at his minor league numbers is that his game is predicated on speed which I think can do a lot more in terms of producing a gaudy hitting line in the minors than it can in the majors where the fielders are better.  So for me personally I take Buxton's minor league line with a grain of salt more so than  I would a guy like Bryant who is more of a pure hitter.  I might be wrong, but I certainly think its something that should be considered.

 

Unfortunately it doesn't seem Fangraphs has batted ball data for the minors.

That is a good thing to point out. In the minors, his BABIP was above .400 in both 2013 and 2015 (.500 in AAA!). I expect him to have above-average BABIPs, but .400 is pretty extreme.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Bump

[DaveW]

Lulz this thread.

[mickeymental]

you're saying it's too soon to stick a fork in him?

[Seth Stohs]

The beauty of maintaining forums... the comments stick around...

[DaveW]

Another great game by Buxton.

I'd wager that amongst all teams that lost 103+ games in a single season, nobody has as much "hope" for 2017 as do the Twins.

 

Dozier, Buxton and Sano could be the best player at their respective positions next year. Kepler, Vargas, Polanco all appear to be potential above average/really good players in the making. Berrios, while a disappointment this year, could be a front end of the rotation pitcher soon, and if Ervin+Hughes channel their "good selves" the Twins rotation could creep close to just below league average (assuming Berrios steps up of course)

 

I think we can all agree that OP was.....um.......hmmm....um....silly? In his proclamation of Buxton being a bust, but the Twins have been one of these weird teams where their top prospects either: Kick ass early and often (and continue to)

See: Liriano, Mauer, Morneau, Sano

or Bomb, and continue to bomb:

See: Hicks, Ryan Johnson, Delmon Young (not a prospect but tons of expectation for a youngster)

Other than Hunter there haven't been a lot of top prospects who struggled for a decent chunk, then became studs later on. 

 

But Buxton was always very young, and always showed the flashes that made you know he would figure it out eventually, and at worst if the bat didn't develop all the way he would be Mike Cameron or so. Now that the bat is coming around? The sky is truely the limit, he has legit 25-30 HR power already, which puts him at 35-40 HR power when he gets a few years older, oh and he plays the best D CF in baseball. 

 

Wow.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

Other than Hunter there haven't been a lot of top prospects who struggled for a decent chunk, then became studs later on. 

 

Actually, that's not true.  Morneau didn't become Morneau until about 1000 ML PA.  Guzman struggled a lot before becoming an all-star.  Koskie didn't make the bigs til 26.  Cuddyer had the bust label on him.  Scott Baker was sent back and forth to AAA several times.  Etc, etc.  Young players struggle on every team. 

[gunnarthor]

That said, while his strike outs are still quite high, he seems to be taking better at-bats and increased his walk rate slightly and decreased his strike outs a bit.  He needs to continue on both but he certainly seems to be moving in the right direction. 

 

And my expectation that he'd look more like McCutchen in Sept doesn't seem too far off.

[jimbo92107]

Buxton clearly was missing something fundamental at the plate, and he finally found it his last trip to Rochester. Once he started making good contact, his confidence came back, and now we're seeing a little of what he can do offensively. 

 

Let's hope he continues to refine his hitting, bunting and base stealing. Then he'll truly be the pretty good player that Tom Kelly wants to see. 

[Platoon]

Button is the perfect example of what the Twins should continue to look for in the middle. Fielders who can hit, not hitters who can field. He looks like he is starting to get it. A little longer than normal, but on the same plane as he did in every other stop along the way.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Buxton clearly was missing something fundamental at the plate, and he finally found it his last trip to Rochester. Once he started making good contact, his confidence came back, and now we're seeing a little of what he can do offensively. 

 

Let's hope he continues to refine his hitting, bunting and base stealing. Then he'll truly be the pretty good player that Tom Kelly wants to see. 

What I'm seeing  in the Twins callups is they've been tuned to get MiLB players out, but not so much focus on getting MLB players out.  This adjustment happens all the time.  It just seems that for the Twins, it's a longer adjustment.  Seems they need to adjust their MiLB training manuals some.