Sorry...Buxton is a flop

[howieramone2]

Buxton will do better than Zach Jones, Pinto, Sano at 3B, May as a starter, or any of the decline phase NL relievers the board lusted for.

[USAFChief]

 

Buxton will do better than Zach Jones, Pinto, Sano at 3B, May as a starter, or any of the decline phase NL relievers the board lusted for.

Got your parade tickets yet?

[Pius Jefferson]

 

Buxton is hitting .172 and Sano is hitting .190.  So do you think Sano's growth will be stunted also?  They aren't performing to differently?

 

There's evidence that Sa no get at the major league level. There is not evidence that Buxton can hit at the major league level. 

[d-mac]

 

Interesting discussion.  Some of the posters are debating semantics, some are debating extremes.  My take on things is this.  

Part of the confusion is probably the old school tools evaluation.  Buxton has 5 tool potential, but that the two hit tools aren't fully developed.  And neither account for K's.  His defense and athleticism are fantastic, but likely to gradually decline as he ages while his bat improves.  This makes it awfully tempting to rush him up in order to take advantage of his youth and athleticism while his bat develops.  

 

The Mike Trout comparisons are several years old.  Expectations have already been tempered among scouts.  Put the guys he was ranked against who have graduated to the bigs, and suddenly Buxton isn't a top 2 prospect anymore.  Trout's continued level of success is amazing, Buxton has not developed at the same rate.  More recent comparisons have been McCutchen or Justin Upton on upside.  The bottom range of the prospect scale is never really mentioned.  People just hear "Trout" or "McCutchen" and they expect MVP seasons.  But those comparisons were best case scenarios from the beginning, and not really expectations.  Or they shouldn't be.  For every Trout there's a BJ Upton or Austin Jackson.

The fairest way to assess Buxton is to temper your expectations to something more realistic from the beginning.  Predictions here tend to range from MVP caliber to league average bat.  Those seem like reasonable parameters.  Let's aim for somewhere in the middle.  Gomez is a good comparison, although his initial struggles were over-aggression, Buxton seems to me, to be too tentative, which leads to my third takeaway.

There is a risk of stunting a player's development by sticking him in too early.  It was fashionable to blame Santana's BABIP for his horrible 2015, but HR aren't factored into BABIP.  He went from 7 to 0.  He got tentative and started slowing down his bat, trying not to strike out, which led to bad approaches, bad swings, and more K's.  Point is, striking out all the time can lead to horrible habits.  Rather than learning to read pitchers, read pitches, and stick to your approach, you go up with a survival approach.  Gomez never had that.  Ozzie doesn't have that.  Santana had that, Hicks had that, and Buxton looks to be getting that.  I'm not sure it's a good thing that he's striking out after 7 pitches instead of 4 if it means he's more tentative, ie fouling off pitches that he was whiffing at in exchange for not hitting the pitches he used to crush.  That's what people are describing when they say "over-matched".  The danger with Buxton, is that he's smart enough, and talented enough to likely gain a level of progress just trying to survive.  But survival will only get him to those bottom projections.

Personally, I think Delmon's career was stunted in this manner.  He was called up early, he could hit a fastball along way.  He flailed at breaking balls.  By the time he left the Twins, he could hit a hanging breaking ball, but a good fastball was a foul or swing and miss.  Your success as a big leaguer is pretty limited if you're fighting off fastballs and trying to hit breaking balls.  He was talented enough to hang around doing that, but his career is disappointing in comparison to his potential.  

 

I'd like to see Buxton go down to AAA to work on confidence and approach.  Worry more about pitch selection and hitting your pitch then fighting off their pitch.  I think he'll be at least as good as Gomez, but probably not for 2 years.  We used an option year last year when we didn't need to. There's a very real possibility that he'll be nearing but not at max potential at the time he's looking for a contract extension.  If he shows signs of breaking out or has 1 great season, but hasn't done it consistently, but wants a huge deal, well at that point we screwed ourselves.  We'll have to overpay for a risky contract (Mauer situation), lose him as he's reaching his prime (Hunter), or we'll have to trade him because of that one or two weeks last August.

 

 

Very well said. I think at this point, being in the majors is not doing him any good. I think it has and will continue to stunt his development with the bat. While his tools can allow him to be McCutchen, his approach at the plate and his contact tools are so undeveloped at this point he could just as easily washout of the bigs. Buxton is playing at a below replacement level (fWAR), so it's hard for me to see this as anything other than a lose-lose situation: being on the 25 man roster is hurting this team now, and hurting his development long-term. He needs to be in AAA for as long as it takes to get his bat ready for the show. 

[d-mac]

 

Through 2012 he was playing high school baseball, with reports of the competition being sub par. From 2012 to 2014 he was in rookie leagues, low A, and high A. Then he had a concussion.

In the 20 months since his concussion he has been in AA for 59 games, AAA for 13 games, and in the majors for about 50 games.

So over the last 20 months he is simultaneously working his way back from a concussion AND seeing breaking balls he has never seen before. I am not sure why Span, Morneau, and Mauer (two former league MVP's) get a two year pass after their concussions but we don’t even mention Buxton’s.

I give him another month, he has already started to look better at the plate. And Geez, he is one 4-4 game from a .257 average. As I mentioned, his defense and his base running more than make up for his bat right now anyways. He gets to add some value for us and get a look at the breaking balls he needs to work on.

 

This begs the question of "WHY THE HELL IS HE IN THE MAJORS NOW!?"

[d-mac]

 

Got your parade tickets yet?

 

His putting the bunting up now. 

[big dog]

Did anyone see the throw home that he made early in the game today?  He was way too deep to have any shot, and he missed getting a relatively fast runner at the plate by, I don't know, an inch or two.  An incredible throw.  He's not letting his batting troubles affect him in the field.  I also think he's looking better at the plate, though of course with where he started from there was a lot of room to move up.

 

Up to me, I let him play through.  At least for a couple more weeks.

[tobi0040]

This begs the question of "WHY THE HELL IS HE IN THE MAJORS NOW!?"

My decision points are:

 

Is he getting better here or in AAA?

 

Is his confidence taking a hit up here?

 

What is his defensive value vs. the next alternative?

 

I think you set a concrete timeline with measurable goals (internally). I would start with k rate, numbers with 2 strikes, BA against breaking balls, and

Ratio of at bats where he is ahead in count and behind in count.

[Riverbrian]

I'd like to see him level his swing out. It would give his bat a little more time in the zone and improve his contact rate.

 

If he did that... I think he would turn a corner very sharply. 

 

In Theory... on paper... of course. 

 

Reality is much harder. 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

He's 22

 

[bluechipper]

 

In fairness not all the prognosticators have been on the Buxton bandwagon.  Quite a few Fangraphs ones haven't.  Dave Cameron definitely didn't buy the hype.  He likes Confronto better.

I really doubt Dave Cameron thinks Conforto will be better than Buxton, but that is laughable if he does. Buxton has a higher minor league OPS than Conforto even though he was drafted out of college. Plus he doesn't add much in the field and nothing on the basepaths.

[Kwak]

The problem as I see it is that fans had projected Buxton to be the next HOF CF for the Twins--and the early results are disappointing, causing the fans to appear as "hopeless homers".  So, now some are lashing-out--"rushed" to the majors, poor coaching, and virtually every excuse ever used to describe a player who disappoints the fan.  The Twins have traded all of the other CF options (the return from these trades belongs in a separate thread) so now it's time for OTJ training (and proving).  It's less painful to just "rip the band-aids off".

[jimmer]

 

I really doubt Dave Cameron thinks Conforto will be better than Buxton, but that is laughable if he does. Buxton has a higher minor league OPS than Conforto even though he was drafted out of college. Plus he doesn't add much in the field and nothing on the basepaths.

It's exactly what he said in his chat.  Exactly.  

 

 

'michael: hey dave, saw you at pitch talks last week, you were hilarious. i absolutely loved the pujols reference. please come back…..Buxton or Conforto?

Dave Cameron: Well, thanks! I’ll take Conforto. I’ve never been sold on the Buxton hype, and he doesn’t look close to big league ready at this point.'

 

 

Not sure why it's laughable, either. Plenty of highly thought of prospects don't end up where people think they'll be.

 

Anyway, the point was, there are plenty of well respected baseball people who don't stand with the majority in their opinions of how Buxton will be in the majors

[bluechipper]

It's exactly what he said in his chat.  Exactly.  

 

 

'michael: hey dave, saw you at pitch talks last week, you were hilarious. i absolutely loved the pujols reference. please come back…..Buxton or Conforto?

Dave Cameron: Well, thanks! I’ll take Conforto. I’ve never been sold on the Buxton hype, and he doesn’t look close to big league ready at this point.'

 

 

Not sure why it's laughable, either. Plenty of highly thought of prospects don't end up where people think they'll be.

 

Anyway, the point was, there are plenty of well respected baseball people who don't stand with the majority in their opinions of how Buxton will be in the majors

It's laughable because Buxton has surpassed Conforto's minor league numbers, and that doesn't even include the huge difference in fielding and base running between the two. Plus, I don't think it's common at all for a well known guy like Cameron to think more highly of a guy who was rated towards the bottom of top 100's before his rookie year over a consensus top 3 guy.

 

Like you said, who knows what will happen with prospects, but I'll take Buxton and it's not close.

[longstrangetrip]

 

Did anyone see the throw home that he made early in the game today?  He was way too deep to have any shot, and he missed getting a relatively fast runner at the plate by, I don't know, an inch or two.  An incredible throw.  He's not letting his batting troubles affect him in the field.  I also think he's looking better at the plate, though of course with where he started from there was a lot of room to move up.

 

Up to me, I let him play through.  At least for a couple more weeks.

 

It was a great throw, dog.  Very impressive how he set up for it too...he must have been 25 feet behind the ball, so he had tremendous momentum as he made the catch.  And he almost got him, when most knowledgeable fans thought he had no chance. 

 

On the other hand, it was disappointing to see him mishandle the double in the 9th allowing the eventual winning run to get to third.  With his lack of contribution at the plate, he needs to be stellar in the field.

[longstrangetrip]

I'm far from giving up on Buxton.  His speed alone is game-changing.  Take last Sunday's game, for instance, where he entered the game in the 8th inning and scored 2 runs. 

 

But his struggles at the plate are painful to watch...I see no improvement in his plate approach.  I started a thread earlier about his ineptness when he gets behind in the count, and it's not getting any better.  He has now gotten to a 2-strike count 19 times this season, and he has struck out 15 of those times.  And unfortunately he is actually hitting worse than last season...BA, slugging, OBP and strikeout rate are all worse.

 

The problem with Buxton is pitch recognition...I really don't think he currently has much ability to pick up the spin of the ball until it's too late.  This results in taking pitches he should be swinging at, and swinging at tough pitches out of the zone...and regular negative counts.  In the rare instances when he gets ahead in the count, he looks like the #1 prospect we were told about (he is 4 for 9 in favorable counts this season).  The problem is his lack of recognition almost usually puts him in a hole, and at least right now, he is clearly in the bottom quartile (perhaps bottom 10%) in the league in hitting while behind.

 

I'm not smart enough to know if Byron would be better served by being sent down.  Advocates would argue that hitting in AAA would elevate his confidence and allow him to hone his recognition skills in a less pressure environment.  Others would argue that he has shown the ability to get ahead in the count and hit in the minors, and he needs lots of ABs against ML pitching to develop the same skill at this level.  I think I come down on the side of the second argument, but Mollie and Bruno need to watch him carefully and look for any signs of getting too down on himself.  I trust their judgement, and if they decide it is destructive for him to continue flailing at the ML level, I would support a demotion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I really doubt Dave Cameron thinks Conforto will be better than Buxton, but that is laughable if he does. Buxton has a higher minor league OPS than Conforto even though he was drafted out of college. Plus he doesn't add much in the field and nothing on the basepaths.

Age and minor league statistics become less meaningful as time passes and MLB stats are accumulated.  Conforto has been very good as a MLB hitter so far, and it doesn't look like a fluke -- great power, good control of the strike zone, and his left-handed bat means he will regularly have the platoon advantage.  Plus, while he is a corner outfielder, both B-Ref and Fangraphs give him positive marks for defense so far in his MLB career, so he's not hurting his case too much there.  Health has value too, and as far as I can tell, he's never had a serious injury.

 

It's an interesting comparison, and it's far from cut-and-dried as you suggest.  A case can still be made for Buxton, of course, particularly given the Twins roster/org where we need a CF more than another corner guy.  But I think you can make a case for Conforto now too.

[Willihammer]

I wonder if scouts and prospect nerds have short memories like the rest of us. Maybe the ascent of Mike Trout and advanced statistics, especially the emphasis on outfield defense, conspired to inflate Buxton's stock going all the way back to the 2012 draft. Probably didn't help that he runs like the wind either. Easy to be wooed by sheer SPEED. Its too early to call him a bust but its past time we adjust our expectations for the kid. Maybe a Melvin Upton type career arc was a more realistic projection for him all along.

[chopper0080]

Buxton is far from being the biggest problem on our roster.  He is struggling, but that is what many young players do.  I would be more concerned with the veteran players who aren't producing, or the bullpen which looks like a mess to me.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I wonder if scouts and prospect nerds have short memories like the rest of us. Maybe the ascent of Mike Trout and advanced statistics, especially the emphasis on outfield defense, conspired to inflate Buxton's stock going all the way back to the 2012 draft. Probably didn't help that he runs like the wind either. Easy to be wooed by sheer SPEED. Its too early to call him a bust but its past time we adjust our expectations for the kid. Maybe a Melvin Upton type career arc was a more realistic projection for him all along.

Let me be clear. I liked this, but I don't "like" this. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Let me be clear. I liked this, but I don't "like" this. 

Or is it the other way around? 

[tobi0040]

 

I wonder if scouts and prospect nerds have short memories like the rest of us. Maybe the ascent of Mike Trout and advanced statistics, especially the emphasis on outfield defense, conspired to inflate Buxton's stock going all the way back to the 2012 draft. Probably didn't help that he runs like the wind either. Easy to be wooed by sheer SPEED. Its too early to call him a bust but its past time we adjust our expectations for the kid. Maybe a Melvin Upton type career arc was a more realistic projection for him all along.

 

The Trout comps were as simple as both of them being toolsy OF.  Pretty lazy in my opinion.

 

Offensively I think his upside is more like Carl Crawford.  15 HR and 60 SB, versus Trout threatening 30+ in each category a year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Trout comps were as simple as both of them being toolsy OF.  Pretty lazy in my opinion.

 

Offensively I think his upside is more like Carl Crawford.  15 HR and 60 SB, versus Trout threatening 30+ in each category a year.

Career minor league ISO

 

Buxton .188

Trout .174

Crawford .110 (and that has been boosted a few points by recent year rehab stints)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wonder if scouts and prospect nerds have short memories like the rest of us. Maybe the ascent of Mike Trout and advanced statistics, especially the emphasis on outfield defense, conspired to inflate Buxton's stock going all the way back to the 2012 draft. Probably didn't help that he runs like the wind either. Easy to be wooed by sheer SPEED. Its too early to call him a bust but its past time we adjust our expectations for the kid. Maybe a Melvin Upton type career arc was a more realistic projection for him all along.

I think Buxton's stock got inflated primarily by his fantastic 2013 season.  Average, speed, power, walks, age 19... wow.  Not that many K's either.  ~.400 BABIP but good hitters can do that in the minor leagues (Trout was in that neighborhood too).

 

Melvin Upton is an interesting name -- he's been a punchline since he signed his big FA deal, but prior to that, he was a good but inconsistent player.  Now, if Buxton could do that with good defense, it could cover some inconsistencies with the bat, but Buxton also doesn't have Upton's good health track record which could be another concern.  Not a bad outcome, not a bust or a flop, but still a little short of what most observers thought they saw coming together in 2013.

[Willihammer]

 

I think Buxton's stock got inflated primarily by his fantastic 2013 season.  Average, speed, power, walks, age 19... wow.  Not that many K's either.  ~.400 BABIP but good hitters can do that in the minor leagues (Trout was in that neighborhood too).

 

Melvin Upton is an interesting name -- he's been a punchline since he signed his big FA deal, but prior to that, he was a good but inconsistent player.  Now, if Buxton could do that with good defense, it could cover some inconsistencies with the bat, but Buxton also doesn't have Upton's good health track record which could be another concern.  Not a bad outcome, not a bust or a flop, but still a little short of what most observers thought they saw coming together in 2013.

Yeah the 2013 season bumped his stock further, especially the 1/2 season in Cedar Rapids... where Trout was 3 years earlier.

[tobi0040]

 

Career minor league ISO

 

Buxton .188

Trout .174

Crawford .110 (and that has been boosted a few points by recent year rehab stints)

 

Trout and Buxton basically had the same slugging above A ball, about .485.  But Trout’s ISO is penalized by his .326 BA in AA and .405 in AAA (Buxton’s was .305).

 

The other interesting thing about the comparison is they have both had about the same number of minor league AB’s, given Buxton’s injuries.  I would have thought given his debut before his 20th birthday that he had fewer AB's

[Minniman]

 

Maybe we should trade him for David Ortiz so Big Pappy can end his career  here like Jared Allen did.

 

That would be like the Timberwolves trading a good power forward for a washed up Kevin Garnett.

 

Only an idiot would do that.

 

Anyway, the Twins did not trade Ortiz, they just let him go for nothing.

[big dog]

 

The Trout comps were as simple as both of them being toolsy OF.  Pretty lazy in my opinion.

 

Offensively I think his upside is more like Carl Crawford.  15 HR and 60 SB, versus Trout threatening 30+ in each category a year.

I was surprised to see that Trout has only stolen 27 bases COMBINED in the last two years.  I wonder if that's based primarily on having Pujols hitting behind him?

 

I could live with 15 HR, 60 SB, and Gold Glove defense in center.  Not a problem.

[nicksaviking]

I like Buxton, not his swing though. He'll never develop power with no leg kick or stride. He looks like a right handed Denard Span, and he should be much, much more.

 

I have no clue what to think about Buxton until the team puts him in a more appropriate swing, which I would guess will occur at some point.

[jimmer]

Poor Span continues to be devalued by our fan base.  One of the most under-rated players in the game and certainly under-rated by a huge chunk of the Twins fan base when he was here and now that he's gone.