Sorry...Buxton is a flop

[Mike Sixel]

It simply isn't true that the hype went up after his minor league career year. He was the number 2 pick in the draft. From the time he was in the minors, he was a top prospect in all the minors (not THE, a). So far, he's been a disappointment. That will hopefully change, but it isn't like people are being unrealistic thinking he should be good. He isn't a random prospect. He isn't someone that came out of the blue. He has been one of the top prospects in the game since he was drafted. 

[adorduan]

 

Buxton has struck out a thin hair under 50% of the time.

It's up to 53% now.  Look, he needs to go down,  the sooner the better.  He doesn't have a clue up there, he's just guessing. I don't care how good he is in the field, you can't have that kind of black whole in an offense that's struggling.

[Mike Sixel]

That's a staggering number. Utterly staggering.

[tobi0040]

 

It's up to 53% now.  Look, he needs to go down,  the sooner the better.  He doesn't have a clue up there, he's just guessing. I don't care how good he is in the field, you can't have that kind of black whole in an offense that's struggling.

 

Way too many uncompetitive at bats.  I think he should go down.  With the wheels he has he will have a decent OPS by turning doubles into triples, singles into doubles, etc.  But he needs to make more contact.  53% of the time. Yikes.

 

The single season record is Mark Reynolds in 2009 with 223 k's.  That was a 33.7% clip. 

[TheLeviathan]

Buxton needs to go to AAA for a bit.  Roll with Rosario in CF - it isn't ideal, but right now we're not progressing Buxton's development at all.

[Mike Sixel]

I think I reluctantly agree, anyone striking out half the time needs to go down.

[TheLeviathan]

I think if you send him down now he could be back up by the all-star break.  Give this kid 2 months of AAA pitching to adjust and then get him back here.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Buck will be okay. Hell, he might K 200 times this year, but as he gets into the groove as the season progresses, he will excite us and make evident his promise. At least for the first few years of his career he is going to be an up your ass strike out guy, Relax, stretch out, take a breather, everything will be okay with this guy. Players like Buxton are not refined products, and sometimes the minors won't solve those equations. Buxton is a super talent and none of us have even a fine hair of talent to judge him on a professional level. Let it ride and take the good with the bad.

The is no way the Twins let Buxton get even a whiff of 200k's.

 

see what I did there   

[HitInAPinch]

Buxton has made progress this year.  Remember that weird twisty thing he was doing with his front foot in Spring Training?  The overall swing mechanics are much better.  However, Buxton [like Arcia, Sano, Rosario, et al] is a sucker for ANY breaking ball low and away.  Not sure another 2 weeks of flailing away in the MLB will help that.  Betting [ hoping ] some more MiLB season will help.

[dcTC61]

I remember Torii starting off with a lot of hype and a .111BA. I was starting to cal him Tor111. At least BB has a better avg. so far. His speed on that triple is exciting. We need exciting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I remember Torii starting off with a lot of hype and a .111BA. I was starting to cal him Tor111. At least BB has a better avg. so far. His speed on that triple is exciting. We need exciting.

When did Torii have a .111 BA?  After his first 9 career AB?

 

After 187 career MLB PA, Hunter was hitting .225 with 37 Ks (19.8%).

 

At the same point, Buxton is hitting .195 with 68 Ks (36.4%) -- and both marks worse recently (this season).

[nicksaviking]

 

It's up to 53% now.  Look, he needs to go down,  the sooner the better.  He doesn't have a clue up there, he's just guessing. I don't care how good he is in the field, you can't have that kind of black whole in an offense that's struggling.

 

Buxton may need to go to AAA for some confidence boosting and/or adjustments, but not because he creates a black hole in the offense.

 

At this point the goal should be sustained long term winning, not a few extra wins in 2016.

[markos]

 

Buxton may need to go to AAA for some confidence boosting and/or adjustments, but not because he creates a black hole in the offense.

 

At this point the goal should be sustained long term winning, not a few extra wins in 2016.

How long would you keep him down in AAA? And what would be your criteria for calling him back up?

 

I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations this morning, and - assuming my understanding of service time rules are correct - Buxton's service time clock is going to turn over in ~35 days. I never thought this was remotely a possibility going into the season, but is it time to start thinking about salvaging another year of service time with Buxton? I mean, if you think two months in AAA is reasonable, is it really crazy to keep him there for four months if it pushes back his free agency a year? If I was a cold-hearted, asset-maximizing GM, this is the conversation I'd have with Buxton:

 

"You have until Memorial Day to get your act together. If your performance still stinks, you are going to be sent back down to AAA. You will stay in AAA until you are able to demonstrate over at least 200 PAs the ability to sustain a K% < 20%, BB% > 10% and ISO > .200. If you cannot reach those marks, you will spend the rest of the season in AAA and try to make it in the majors next season. The performance or health of the big league roster will not dictate a potential promotion - only your own performance."

 

It is really hard for me to guess what the right decision is here. He has so much potential and so much promise - but he has been rushed and has struggled so badly. It may very well be that it makes the most sense to give him 400 PAs in AAA to finish out the year. And it may also be the best decision for the franchise as well, to be able to push back his free agency another year (securing his age-28 season). But at the same time, I really do feel like he is only a good week away from turning a corner and actually start playing like the star he is supposed to be.

[Mike Sixel]

He has not been rushed. He was the number 1 prospect in the game last year. He has not progressed. But, compared to others, he has not been rushed.

[nicksaviking]

 

How long would you keep him down in AAA? And what would be your criteria for calling him back up?

 

 

I don't have any plans for that, I hope the team has a good feel for what's needed. I'm simply saying where Buxton plays shouldn't be predicated on trying to win 75 games instead of 70 games.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

How long would you keep him down in AAA? And what would be your criteria for calling him back up?

 

I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations this morning, and - assuming my understanding of service time rules are correct - Buxton's service time clock is going to turn over in ~35 days. I never thought this was remotely a possibility going into the season, but is it time to start thinking about salvaging another year of service time with Buxton? I mean, if you think two months in AAA is reasonable, is it really crazy to keep him there for four months if it pushes back his free agency a year? If I was a cold-hearted, asset-maximizing GM, this is the conversation I'd have with Buxton:

 

"You have until Memorial Day to get your act together. If your performance still stinks, you are going to be sent back down to AAA. You will stay in AAA until you are able to demonstrate over at least 200 PAs the ability to sustain a K% < 20%, BB% > 10% and ISO > .200. If you cannot reach those marks, you will spend the rest of the season in AAA and try to make it in the majors next season. The performance or health of the big league roster will not dictate a potential promotion - only your own performance."

 

It is really hard for me to guess what the right decision is here. He has so much potential and so much promise - but he has been rushed and has struggled so badly. It may very well be that it makes the most sense to give him 400 PAs in AAA to finish out the year. And it may also be the best decision for the franchise as well, to be able to push back his free agency another year (securing his age-28 season). But at the same time, I really do feel like he is only a good week away from turning a corner and actually start playing like the star he is supposed to be.

If we are out of things, yes it would be in the teams best interest.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

 But at the same time, I really do feel like he is only a good week away from turning a corner and actually start playing like the star he is supposed to be.

A feeling based on what?  Cause he looks completely lost at the plate.

[jimmer]

 

He has not been rushed. He was the number 1 prospect in the game last year AND #2 THIS YEAR AND #1 TWO YEARS ago.. He has not progressed. But, compared to others, he has not been rushed.

this.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

He has not been rushed. He was the number 1 prospect in the game last year. He has not progressed. But, compared to others, he has not been rushed.

 

#1 on the lists has more to do with ceiling than it does readiness.  His ceiling was why he was number 1.  That means nothing about where he is now and what he needs to do to get to that ceiling.  I beg to differ on the rushed.  He shouldn't have been up last year except for an unfortunate need.  He's not ready this year either, as he spent way too much time on the major league roster not hitting or hurt.  What the kid needs more than anything else is more practice, and he's clearly overmatched at the ML level. 

 

He needs to learn trig before he can do calculus. 

[jimmer]

 

It's up to 53% now.  Look, he needs to go down,  the sooner the better.  He doesn't have a clue up there, he's just guessing. I don't care how good he is in the field, you can't have that kind of black whole in an offense that's struggling.

I was going by plate appearances not at bats.  24Ks in 49 PA.  Either way, horrible for sure.

[Riverbrian]

We all saw it.

 

Apart from his incredible defense and speed.

 

There was nothing in 2015 that suggested he was ready for opening day 2016 at the plate.

 

I was never comfortable with the blind faith the Twins showed him. 

 

He was rushed last year and rushed this year as well because up in the majors before you show you are ready is rushing. 

 

 

 

 

 

[glunn]

Here is an article that gives me some comfort -- http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25566487/twins-demote-struggling-byron-buxton-to-triple-a

 

"The good news is Buxton is still only 22 years old. He has a December birthday and he's going to be 22 all season. Buxton will go to Triple-A, where he has only 13 career games of experience and will still be roughly five years younger than the average International League player.

 

Of course the Twins and Buxton are disappointed with the way things have gone this year, both on a team level and a personal level. The best thing for Buxton right now is to go to Triple-A, catch his breath, work on his strike zone discipline, then be ready to go when the team inevitably calls him back up."

[Riverbrian]

 

Here is an article that gives me some comfort -- http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25566487/twins-demote-struggling-byron-buxton-to-triple-a

 

"The good news is Buxton is still only 22 years old. He has a December birthday and he's going to be 22 all season. Buxton will go to Triple-A, where he has only 13 career games of experience and will still be roughly five years younger than the average International League player.

 

Of course the Twins and Buxton are disappointed with the way things have gone this year, both on a team level and a personal level. The best thing for Buxton right now is to go to Triple-A, catch his breath, work on his strike zone discipline, then be ready to go when the team inevitably calls him back up."

 

I'm not worried about Buxton... If he's a future superstar and I think he is... He'll be back and probably before the year is done. I don't think the experience will injure his Mental health. He's gonna be great and I look forward to it. 

 

I'm worried about the decision makers who felt he was ready to start opening day and felt that they had adequate back up in case he wasn't. 

[markos]

 

A feeling based on what?  Cause he looks completely lost at the plate.

A feeling based on hopes and dreams. 

[markos]

 

He has not been rushed. He was the number 1 prospect in the game last year. He has not progressed. But, compared to others, he has not been rushed.

Based on what metrics are you arguing that he hasn't been rushed? Looking at PAs in AA/AAA, here are the top prospects from the past three seasons who have had fewer PAs than Buxton:

Carlos Correa

Jorge Soler

 

Here are the prospects who got (or will get) 2x the PAs as Buxton in AA/AAA:

Kris Bryant

Corey Seager

Blake Swihart

Xander Bogaerts

Javier Baez

Gregory Polanco

George Springer

Orlando Arcia

Trea Turner

JP Crawford

 

And these are the top prospects that got at least 3x as many PAs as Buxton in AA/AAA:

Joc Pederson

Francisco Lindor

Oscar Taveras

Maikel Franco

 

There isn't one single definition of "rushed", so maybe we are talking about different things. I would argue that Buxton received far less development time in the high minors than the vast majority of other top prospects, to his detriment. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There isn't one single definition of "rushed", so maybe we are talking about different things. I would argue that Buxton received far less development time in the high minors than the vast majority of other top prospects, to his detriment. 

That's mostly due to Buxton's injuries.  Do you think if, say, Kris Bryant missed half of the 2014 season due to injury, the Cubs would have kept him down for half the season in 2015 in the name of "development time"?  Top prospects generally get promoted for factors other than meeting a requisite amount of development time.

 

Maybe the better comparison would be performance levels?  Buxton's 135 wRC+ in 268 PA at age 21 in AA probably compares pretty well with most of these guys too.  And in his brief appearance in AAA last year, he acquitted himself pretty well too.  Should the Twins have insisted he play a full season at AA?  Or a half season at AAA?  Does that really explain the depths to which his MLB plate approach fell this year?

[tobi0040]

 

Based on what metrics are you arguing that he hasn't been rushed? Looking at PAs in AA/AAA, here are the top prospects from the past three seasons who have had fewer PAs than Buxton:

Carlos Correa

Jorge Soler

 

Here are the prospects who got (or will get) 2x the PAs as Buxton in AA/AAA:

Kris Bryant

Corey Seager

Blake Swihart

Xander Bogaerts

Javier Baez

Gregory Polanco

George Springer

Orlando Arcia

Trea Turner

JP Crawford

 

And these are the top prospects that got at least 3x as many PAs as Buxton in AA/AAA:

Joc Pederson

Francisco Lindor

Oscar Taveras

Maikel Franco

 

There isn't one single definition of "rushed", so maybe we are talking about different things. I would argue that Buxton received far less development time in the high minors than the vast majority of other top prospects, to his detriment. 

 

And Buxton and Mike Trout have roughly the same amount of AB's above A ball.  Most think Trout shot right up but with Buxton's injuries that isn't the case

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's mostly due to Buxton's injuries.  Do you think if, say, Kris Bryant missed half of the 2014 season due to injury, the Cubs would have kept him down for half the season in 2015 in the name of "development time"?  Top prospects generally get promoted for factors other than meeting a requisite amount of development time.

 

Maybe the better comparison would be performance levels?  Buxton's 135 wRC+ in 268 PA at age 21 in AA probably compares pretty well with most of these guys too.  And in his brief appearance in AAA last year, he acquitted himself pretty well too.  Should the Twins have insisted he play a full season at AA?  Or a half season at AAA?  Does that really explain the depths to which his MLB plate approach fell this year?

 

I'm pretty sure you cannot develop the ability to hit a curve ball while sitting at a physical therapists office.  Just saying.  If Bryant had missed half of 2014 due to injury, I think I can say safely that he would have spent more of 2015 in the minors.  How much more would have depended on the type of injury and how he recovered.  Buxton got called up in 2015 after one hot month (after a cold start), and not surprisingly, he failed.  The callup, I'd add was out of need as they had no CFs at the time. 

 

Sano was similar, though his skills were definitely more advanced, but even now I suspect his current slow start has a lot to do with this. 

 

Would I have insisted?  I don't know.  It was obvious though in spring training that he wasn't ready. What I can say is that players succeed and fail for different reasons, and that development takes time.  I don't think there's a cookie cutter approach to MLB success, and I think that we drastically tend to minimize the importance of minor league time b/c we want our guy right now for all the wrong reasons and because we fail to understand just how big of a talent gap there is there (and in Buxton's case, we gloss over that he spent 2 months in AA and a week in AAA).  I do know that posting good stats in AA or AAA is not indicative of MLB success, and when only viewing a player in terms of their production is a recipe for failure.  I do know that those good stats can be good predictive tools of the player's future success, but that the prediction isn't based off of luck and regression but more on the idea that the player will continue to work out the kinks in his game.

 

From this fan's perspective, Buxton's failure both last and this year were not of any real surprise.  I'm not necessarily against giving him that shot like we did in April, but I'm more upset that there really wasn't a backup plan in place.  Buxton could be Aaron Hicks 2.0, though to the Twins credit, they appear to be learning from that mistake. I personally would have rolled with Sweeney in CF to start (or acquired a 1 year stop gap in the offseason, but that's a different debate)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

And Buxton and Mike Trout have roughly the same amount of AB's above A ball.  Most think Trout shot right up but with Buxton's injuries that isn't the case

 

Those comps also set some very unrealistic expectations I suspect as well. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Based on what metrics are you arguing that he hasn't been rushed? Looking at PAs in AA/AAA, here are the top prospects from the past three seasons who have had fewer PAs than Buxton:

Carlos Correa

Jorge Soler

 

Here are the prospects who got (or will get) 2x the PAs as Buxton in AA/AAA:

Kris Bryant

Corey Seager

Blake Swihart

Xander Bogaerts

Javier Baez

Gregory Polanco

George Springer

Orlando Arcia

Trea Turner

JP Crawford

 

And these are the top prospects that got at least 3x as many PAs as Buxton in AA/AAA:

Joc Pederson

Francisco Lindor

Oscar Taveras

Maikel Franco

 

There isn't one single definition of "rushed", so maybe we are talking about different things. I would argue that Buxton received far less development time in the high minors than the vast majority of other top prospects, to his detriment. 

 

That's a fair argument. Perhaps I'm wrong, perhaps we shouldn't expect him to be good yet.

 

If that's true, perhaps the GM should have had a back up plan this time.....