Expectations for Joe Know Who

[DocBauer]

This is absolutely, positively, in no way any kind of bash Joe Mauer post. As I stated in another post, I am a fan, have been a fan, and always will be a fan. Also, as stated, the only jersey I have...only Jersey I've ever owned...is a Mauer jersey. (Again, I can only wear it on special occasions do to my "drop food when wearing white" condition) And before we go any further, let's take a brief snapshot look at this all time great Twin and, IMO at least, future HOFer.

 

His CAREER quad slash is .313/ .394/ .451/ .845!!

 

Read that again. And those numbers are AFTER his vastly lower and disappointing last 2 seasons. In his first FULL 9 seasons, his worst BA was a paltry .287 in 2011. That was his ridiculously aweful .360 OB% low season and only .729 OPS. In other words, tongue removed from cheek, the man was one of the greatest hitters ever, not just for a catcher, but for his generation.

 

But the tragic truth is, for the past two seasons, the hitter that Joe Mauer was is no more. WHY has been hashed and re-hashed repeatedly. But no defining answer remains. There has been a tremendous amount of chatter the past couple of weeks about the makeup of our 2016 Twins. To be fair, we have absolutely no idea if the Twins are done making moves yet. We reflect, compare, hope, speculate, rip, but in truth, there is quite a bit of time left until ST, much less the start of the season, and we really don't know what is around the next bend, turn of the page, flip of the calendar. But while half of the discussion has been about the pitching staff, the other half has been about the lineup. (Fitting, of course) And amidst all the various Plouffe, Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Park, etc al conversation, there is a central figure that is starting to emerge in the discussions, that being Joe.

 

Someone, Stringer perhaps, I can't recall exactly, commented in a recent post regarding Joe that it was easier to defend him last season coming off a singular disappointing/poor season, but harder to do after a worse season in 2015. And I believe it's a very valid point/arguement. However, it may not be quite 100% accurate as Mauer's AVG and OB dropped in '15, but his power numbers were better in '15 vs '14. But still, the drop in production/numbers has been precipitous over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, one might say a trend has been developing.

 

Could Mauer suddenly rebound back in 2016 to his former self? Perhaps. Starry-eyed optimist or not, Ryan Or Molly, I forget, stated he thought Joe could hit .300 again. Hmm...maybe? In the OF, the Twins currently have Rosario coming off an uneven, but fun, productive and tantalizing rookie season. Buxton has had his coffee, a re-fill, and is about ready to take a seat and begin to enjoy a bottomless cup. Arcia is still immensely talented and due a shot to see where he fits. Kepler may be second only to Buxton in the organization in regard to all-around ability and potential. Sano needs a permanent spot somewhere, (and this not really a 3B/OF debate), plus we have Plouffe still. And we added Park. And while the jury is out on Vargas still, boy is there potential there!

 

Add it all up, and an honest realist would tell you that there just might not be a place for Mauer on this team much longer. At least, not as a starter. But that's really the point of this post: to address the elephant in the room, ride him or make him sit up on his haunches and perform for the crowd, but in no way ignore him. As I see it, here are the basic questions for us to consider:

 

Is Joe young enough, (I would think so), and healthy enough (?) to rebound after two disappointing seasons?

What are your expectations for Mauer in 2016?

What numbers does he have to produce, in your opinion, to be a lineup regular?

Where does he fit in the lineup?

What numbers remove him from the lineup?

Would Molitor and the Twins reduce Mauer to a bench player? And what would it take? What would Joe's reaction be?

 

Once again, this is not about bashing one of the greatest Twins or hitter/catcher of his generation. It is the reality of this Twins team, where it is headed, and who makes it up. What say you?

[Pius Jefferson]

At this point I don't have expectations other than stay near mediocrity. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Justin Morneau suffered a concussion in 2010 while he was sporting a .345/.437/.618 (1.055) slash line. This was half way through the season. Justin had to withdraw from his position on the All-Star game roster. Justin then had 3 ‘down’ years (for him). The next year he won the NL batting title.

In 2013 Joe Mauer caught 75 games before suffering a concussion. He will never catch a Major League Baseball game again. He has had 2 ‘down’ years (for him) since then.

I, for one, am not inclined to close the door on this man until nearly all avenues have been exhausted. If he should have a few more days off, so be it. If he appears to be holding the team back, adjustments should be made.

I believe it is too soon to write off the one greatest hitting catchers in the history of the game.

[stringer bell]

I've tried to stay out of the Mauer back and forth, but I do believe Mauer has to raise his OBP and OPS to continue as a regular. Honestly, Mauer can help the team as a 1b if he gets on base a lot and hits well from the #2 spot in the order. A powerless .265 isn't good enough, but .285 with a .360 OBP might make him the largest leadoff hitter in history.

 

[The Wise One]

Somebody with the advanced  snooping around abilities can find the answer to why Mauer does not get hits to right field you might have an answer to the lower batting average.  

[70charger]

The eternal optimist and Mauer fan in me likes Old Goat's analysis and the Morneau comparison. I think the primary concern will be his continued brain health, which, if it's truly healed should allow him to come back. I mean, he's really not that old at all. I know because, well, I'm older.

[Riverbrian]

My expectations are that he plays hard every day and he helps this team win games. 

 

Have a plan at the plate each at bat and a plan that includes trying to turn on an inside pitch every once in awhile.

 

Whatever happens... happens and I'm simply not worried about Mauer anymore. 

 

Other than that.

 

My expectations will be focused on Molitor. Will Joe be creative with Mauer, Park, Plouffe, Sano and Arcia?  Will the guys who are hitting play more? Will the guys who are slumping watch more?

 

If Mauer has to sit because Park is at first and Sano is at DH or whatever combination. So be it. If it happens 3 games in a row. So be it. 

 

I guess... in a nutshell.

 

My expectation is that Joe understands that the team has quality options and he needs to out-play them.

 

If he doesn't... it's going to get weird for him for the rest of his contract. 

 

I'm also glad he's a Twin and I don't worry about it.

 

I worry more about Buxton right now. We need Buxton to be what he hope he will be. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given his history and contract, Mauer has a pretty long leash in MN. I do agree though that if he is playing like he has the last two years, I hope that he starts finding himself getting rested more (especially if other players are doing well enough to deserve more PT). That might be part of the solution anyways. It's quite possible that he simply needs some time off from time to time. I'd like to believe this is concussion related, but after two years, it does not look good.

[Tom Froemming]

I am hopeful Mauer turns it around, but I expect him to put up numbers similar to the past two seasons. I think the concussions have robbed him of his feel at the plate (vision, hand-eye coordination) and defensive shifting has made it more difficult for him to be productive when he does make solid contact.

 

It's sad, and I don't understand how some people seem to revel in his struggles. I had to move out of my seats during a game this summer to get away from a guy who screamed "give it back Joe" repeatedly every time he was at the plate and every play he made in the field. 

 

We're all frustrated with Mauer's performance, Joe himself included, the booing isn't going to help anything.

[kab21]

I think he is going to rebound just enough to stop the 'gotta sit him' or 'offer him a buyout' talk but not enough to make everyone happy.

 

.285/.365/.410/.775

 

solid but not real good for a 1B man.  that might make him a 2.5-3 WAR player though.

[gunnarthor]

.270/.340/.380 type hitter is probably what he is now, which is too bad.

 

But if you want to drink the kool-aid, you could point out that many very good hitters (Joe Torre and Ted Simmons for example) have had a rebound season after a few disappointing seasons and Joe could certainly do that.

[stringer bell]

 

I think he is going to rebound just enough to stop the 'gotta sit him' or 'offer him a buyout' talk but not enough to make everyone happy.

 

.285/.365/.410/.775

 

solid but not real good for a 1B man.  that might make him a 2.5-3 WAR player though.

If Mauer stays healthy and puts up those numbers, he will be quite valuable to the Twins, given the rest of the team's low OBP.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Part time player who is now prone to extended slumps. Ride him when he is hot and sit for longer periods when he is not.

[jorgenswest]

Joe earned his huge contract with his elite performance. Concussions have eroded his ability. I agree with both and can't fault Joe for the contract or drop in performance.

 

I can find fault with the Twins management if they don't put the best team on the field in 2016. Is it possible that Arcia and Vargas are both more likely to put up better offensive numbers than Joe next year? Steamer and Bill James project Vargas to have a better OPS. Steamer projects Arcia to be the best of the three. If either is clearly swinging the bat better than Joe this spring, how do the Twins justify starting Joe?

[Old Twins Cap]

A guy like Mauer, who at 18 struck out only once his senior-year in high school, has more than likely peaked early.  He was a talented three-sport athlete, matured early, reached unprecedented heights as a young man -- HOFer, three-time batting champ, many year All-Star -- and is now on the down-side of this career.

 

Concussions don't help, and who can be sure that isn't a contributing factor?  But, swing and miss rates, solid contact rates -- these are tangible things that can't be pushed aside or attributed to some outside force. 

 

Joe is what he is at this point, and it ain't what he used to be.

 

But, he is taking up first base, where MLB teams stash their best power hitters.  The worst thing is that Mauer went from the most valuable defensive position on the field -- catcher, to the most valuable offensive position on the field -- 1B, while losing his ability to make contact with the baseball.

 

Along with Morneau, Mauer's decline is a sad fact of how fickle a baseball career can be.  I thought the Twins had a good eight to ten years of middle lineup production coming between Mauer and Morneau and it turns out:  just one of those desert oasis mirages. 

 

The whole M and M thing is just a sad piece of fate.  Cuddyer hits a ground ball to short in Toronto and the Twins end up losing a decade in the standings.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

Joe was always known as a world class hitter and student of the art, I think that's what makes his decline so painful. In most analysis' of Joe's issues, a large part of his struggles are credited to pitchers throwing to him differently (down and away) and fielders shifting on him. So naturally one thinks that if Joe is such a hitting guru, why isn't he adjusting to these new approaches?

 

Were we wrong to think Joe had an elite mind for hitting? Is he stubbornly refusing to change his old swing and approach at the plate? Is his physical decline just too much to overcome with adjustments? Were his concussions too damaging? Is he just unlucky?

 

If he turns it around there will be rejoice, praise and analysis and there's a very good chance we will find out what the issue(s) was. If he doesn't, we probably never will. We know Tony O's decline was caused be his damaged knees, Kirby's career was cut short due to Glaucoma. If we never know what happened with Mauer, the debate caused by speculation is going to hurt his legacy I fear.

[HitInAPinch]

 

.270/.340/.380 type hitter is probably what he is now, which is too bad.

 

But if you want to drink the kool-aid, you could point out that many very good hitters (Joe Torre and Ted Simmons for example) have had a rebound season after a few disappointing seasons and Joe could certainly do that.

Comparing Mauer to Torre and Simmons is a great analogy:  All 3 catchers early in their careers and moved to other positions. 

 

I've always had a theory that players who make that type of move will lose some of their hitting skills because they are no longer "into the game".  They lose some concentration at the plate when they don't have the same involvement in the game being behind the plate.  It's an adjustment period.  This could be Joe's year.

[Wizard11]

For me the issue with Joe Mauer is how the team adjusts to the real performance they see vs. his history. I feel that Paul Molitor has an obligation to put his players in the best position to succeed. Will he be willing to remove Joe from a 2-5 spot in the batting order? Will he give him more days off? Will he be willing to coach and advise Joe on how to better defeat defensive strategies used against him? At least in regard to the first 2 questions, it appears Joe was often set up for failure last year which l suspect causes him to press more. Molly now has a year under his belt and hopefully will be willing to use his well regarded baseball intellect to try something different with Joe if the results continue on the same track as the past 2 years.

[mickeymental]

while .285/.365/.410/.775 and morneau's batting title legitimately keep hope alive, cuddyer just paved the way for what to do if it doesn't pan out.

[mnfireman]

Being a fan of Mauer, I hope he rebounds. That being said, I don't think it will happen unless he changes his approach at the plate. I know that is easier said than done, but if he is as great as he showed early in his career, I think he can do it. 

 

He needs to look to drive the ball early in the count, because now that he is no longer behind the plate he is no longer getting favorable calls on close pitches. Whether this is because the umpires no longer feel obligated to give him the call both ways (at bat and as a catcher) or because he got those calls for so many years he thinks he should still be getting them I don't know, but he needs to adapt to the umpire's zone. 

 

I also think he needs to get away from the "give yourself up to move the runner over" train of thought. Teams expect this and adjust accordingly, playing heavy to the pull side (probably the only time!) Not every time, but every so often cut loose and swing for the fences.

 

And along with those two points, almost every at bat he gets a pitch that is belt-high, right down the gut. Whether its the first pitch, or 2-0/3-0, he gets one and needs to start turning on those. Again, not every time (he won't get them any more) but once in awhile (remember him going upper deck on Sabathia!).

[birddog]

Joe has gone from "the guy" to "just one of the 25". As stated, all of Twins territory is hoping and praying he gets back to the numbers that earned him the big contract--albeit 60% of his money was earned as a catcher. If Morneau and Cuddyer can win batting titles in their mid 30s, so can Joe; however, not with his approach at the plate these last two years.

 

If he can not exploit the fact that right fielders are playing him 100 feet off the foul line and turn on the inside fastball any more, his mediocrity will continue. If he can get the right fielder closer to the line, it will create the gaps he needs to be successful. If he is mediocre, he gets treated just like anyone else and Moli has to play the man who gives us the best chance to win since Mauer is by no means a gold-glove 1B.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ryan Or Molly, I forget, stated he thought Joe could hit .300 again. Hmm...maybe?

Maybe Joe can hit 300 again. Ryan said that. I think it was a mistake for him to say that, especially if the Twins are confident he is not likely to ever return to that level again.

[Don Walcott]

I agree with the analyses above that Joe isn't getting calls he used to get, and he needs to change his approach.  I think he'll work hard to do that.  I also hope that umpires stop the trend of expanding the strike zone this year. 

 

One good sign from last year is that he had more plate appearances than in any year of his career.  And his strikeout rate actually went down from 2013 and 2014.  I expect his OBP to come up, though I don't expect more power from him.  So he still will get on base a lot more than the other guys in this lineup.

[Hrbowski]

I thought this was thread about expectations for Joe West.

[Minniman]

Mauer needs a strength coach that can get him more hits and a hitting coach that can work to his strengths.

 

[USAFChief]

 

I think he is going to rebound just enough to stop the 'gotta sit him' or 'offer him a buyout' talk but not enough to make everyone happy.

 

.285/.365/.410/.775

 

solid but not real good for a 1B man.  that might make him a 2.5-3 WAR player though.

If all they get from Mauer is .775, I will be among those thinking "not enough to make me happy."

 

 

 

 

[twinsnorth49]

I expect he'll be better than last year.

[ashbury]

For forecasting purposes, I tend to give any player a pass for one outlier season, in either direction. But two consecutive seasons set a new level of expectation for me. If Joe bounces back merely to his 2014 level of production, amounting to above league-average OPS, it will be difficult to say he's not an everyday player. It just won't be what we had come to expect from the man.

 

There is nothing that says a player at a particular defensive position has to have certain offensive characteristics. It's simply that a team needs a balance of performance, getting guys on base and then driving them in, and power is easiest to obtain from hulking guys who are limited defensively to 1B or a corner outfield position. If somehow an up the middle position, such as our second baseman currently, provides above average power, you can more easily accept elite OBP from first base, if indeed that's what is produced.  But Dozier isn't going to hit 40 homers, and such a number will have to come from Sano and maaaaaaybe Park.

 

The concussion is the easiest explanation for the loss of ability at the plate. It's a brain injury, and like any injury, sometimes the patient heals completely, and other times the healing is less than 100% and ability is degraded permanently. It is quite plausible that Mauer's elite hand-eye coordination has been degraded to the level of ordinary folks like you and me, and it's only his experience and ongoing work habits that allow him to still hit as well as he does. But because the brain is harder to diagnose and monitor than a torn ACL or broken bone, the optimist isn't without grounds to hope for some kind of miraculous bounce-back to his former .300-hitting level. Conversely, age and further wear-and-tear will continue to take its toll on any player, and you can't rule out further decline in 2016 and for the rest of his time with the Twins.

 

[sane09]

If all they get from Mauer is .775, I will be among those thinking "not enough to make me happy."

Chief, the last time ANYTHING was enough to make you happy was probably when the Edwards AFB Chow Hall served SOS ala mode!

[Kwak]

My! How things have changed--there used to be at least one thread per year concerning Mauer and his election to the HOF!  I guess those days are over.  There is another scenario the pom pom wavers have omitted--the one where Mauer out-hits most of the team by being merely league average.  A possible stat:  the team's (by batters!) have a higher strikeout average than batting average.  All of a sudden, the focus of ineptitude isn't on Mauer.