La Velle E Neal: Molitor Leaning Towards Having May in Twins Bullpen

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't understand how you have Duffey so far ahead of May. I like both of them, but I think their floors are similar but May has a higher ceiling.

 

It's all just opinion... They're quite similar. Duffey has a better curveball. May has a better changeup. Fastballs pretty similar.  I just think that the Duffey curveball has the chance to be a real difference maker.

[d-mac]

 

He has maintained a 5%-10% gap between his strikeout rate with bases empty versus runners on for his entire career, both minors and majors. Last year it was 24.9% vs 19.2%. MLB average is about 2%. So he gives up a lot more contact, and subsequently hits, with runners on base relative to the model that FIP uses. Therefore, it is quite possible that he will give up more runs than FIP would predict.

 

I think you are really digging too deeply into splits- every pitcher is going to be worse with runners on, and moreso for starters than relievers. But I'll indulge you. We really aren't comparing May to the general MLB population, are we? We are discussing whether or not he belongs in the Twins rotation. If I had to guess, that isn't exactly a Twins' pitch to contact (i.e.,try to induce double plays avoid walks and passed balls/wild pitches) philosophy. So I would expect to see other pitchers the Twins developed with the same problem and also the players the Twins brought in to have that gap expand after they've been indoctrinated. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I would think that they are looking for quality as they already have a lot of quantity in their farm system. 

 

Our most recent signings of Runzler, Kintzler, and Boshers are absolutely quantity signings. There's no proven MLB quality in that. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Even with these numbers, doesn't that still put your assessment of May's current position and ceiling ahead of Hughes and Milone?

 

My frustration is that I know the organization values youth because they are very loathe to trade prospects, as am I.  However this only seems to be on paper as they do not commit to the youth.  They need to see that youth is not a liability, it is gigantic advantage both in terms of physical abilities and the nature of their contracts, which make them so much easier to de-commit if they do not work out.

 

The Twins appear to believe that experience is a much more important trait. Unfortunately because of this and the contracts that come with experience, they provide such a long leash to these guys. They really, really have to stop giving the vets priority over youth, it has to be the other way around if this team is going to turn the corner.

 

Two different points on  this message which makes for a third point.

 

I still think Milone gets trades which gives May a little better chance to start. Second, Hughes isn't moving to the bullpen. Not after what he did in 2014. 

 

But I do think you really make a great point in those final two paragraphs. The Twins don't trade prospects, and hoard them, but then there are some that just have to do a ton to overcome some mediocre veterans. Obviously guys like Sano and Rosario and Berrios aren't going  to have to fight that as much as the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects. But yeah, it's definitely a differing and someone opposite thinking within one organization. 

 

The only thought I have on that is that they want guys to come up when they're ready and not be pushed too fast, so they need stop gaps. I mean, it's like the idea of Danny Santana starting in CF for a month to allow Byron Buxton to get 25-30 games in at AAA before coming up. It's like bringing back Casey Fien knowing it's possible that if he pitches like 2015 as opposed to 2013 and 2014, one of those AA guys might be ready by June. 

 

I'm good with stop gaps, but I would likely go to prospects sooner than what the Twins do, and in some cases I might be wrong. In more cases, I'd probably be wrong, but it's all just opinion. Just as we all have differing opinions.

 

My third point is just that this was a wonderfully thought out and fair response. Thank you!

[sane09]

 

I

 

Why commit May to the pen now when there are still available, legitimate arms out there for that role, i.e. Bastardo.

Because it is mid-December, and plans can be revised if i.e. Bastardo is at Fort Myers.

[dgwills]

 

I wouldn't be surprised to go north with a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and Milone. May starts out as long relief, with Duffey and Berrios going to AAA even though they have nothing left to prove there.

 

I'll be less surprised when the vast majority of Twins Daily calls it a "worst case scenario." I'm not sure I would immediately join in, because that means that everyone is still healthy.

 

While we wait for one of our starters to go on the DL, there is also a real possibility that some other team's #3, 4 or 5 starter goes on the DL and they look at our plethora of "innings eaters" as a possibility. By June, we could have easily replaced 4/5 of our rotation with better (although relatively untested) talent.

 

Yes, it's ridiculous to be wringing our hands in December, but it's a way better use of my time than approving change requests. Keep it coming!

I agree. It's the best thing we have to talk about this time of year. The reason there's some hand ringing is because a lot of us can see your rotation happening. Given the Twins track record they will go with the veterans. Nolasco is 33 and has 2 good years to 8 bad years in the league. We know what he is. I'd give him about a 5 percent chance of having a good year at this point. If the Twins put him out there in hopes that he will build value and they will be able to shed his contract I will be real mad. Other teams will be paying players to win games and we will be playing games to win money.

[USAFChief]

I know you've been a  staunch defender of May in the pen Chief, and I'm not necessarily arguing that, but two questions,

 

1. Why commit May to the pen now when there are still available, legitimate arms out there for that role, i.e. Bastardo. May makes more sense in the pen if the team had stronger starting pitching and I don't see that as easy to solve as improving the bullpen.

 

2. Why do you think he's overrated as a starter?

1. I'm not sure the Twins have committed to May in the pen...there seems to be some disconnect between Ryan and Molitor in their statements.

 

I would commit May to the pen now, since I've long been a believer that bullpens are much more important than many believe, and that committing good arms to the pen pays off more than "well, he sucks as a starter, throw him in the pen." I see no reason to believe Nolasco, for example, would be a dominant bullpen pitcher. If the Twins HAD those types of arms, I'd be fine with leaving May in the rotation, but they don't. As far as Bastardo and his ilk, the Twins aren't going to add them. They just aren't. Book it. And even if they signed a Bastardo, or acquired a Papelbon, one arm isn't enough...I like to have an entire pen filled with "8th inning guys."

 

So if you need to commit good arms to the pen, well, I'm for paying that cost, and if it has to come from within the system, then so be it.

 

2. I think his weaknesses...occasional loss of command, loss of velocity, iffy third and fourth pitches...are magnified as a starter, and minimized as a one inning guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Eh, I still doubt I'd explore the option. It's possible - maybe even likely - Nolasco can be effective in the pen and Milone was nasty against lefties last season. I'd relegate those two to the bullpen before I considered Hughes, provided Phil looked healthy.

Oh, no doubt.  I wasn't arguing for Nolasco or Milone to displace Hughes, but rather May, Duffey, and/or Berrios to (potentially) displace him.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

But I do think you really make a great point in those final two paragraphs. The Twins don't trade prospects, and hoard them, but then there are some that just have to do a ton to overcome some mediocre veterans. Obviously guys like Sano and Rosario and Berrios aren't going  to have to fight that as much as the 2nd and 3rd tier prospects. But yeah, it's definitely a differing and someone opposite thinking within one organization.

 

 

And this makes me wonder how often the on-field staff makes choices that the front office wouldn't. I think the Twins pride themselves on not micro-managing, but we've seen young guys like Vargas, Arcia, Buxton, Kepler and Santana ride the bench instead of getting reps and there's no doubt that aside from May, it was the veterans who got the most high profile relief innings and first crack at the rotation.

 

It's possible Ryan would handle the young players on the roster differently, but Gardenhire and Molitor felt more comfortable with the vets. Additionally, it's possible there may be times where we as fans want a young guy up but Ryan knows the coaching staff wouldn't give him the requisite playing time to make it worthwhile so the player remains in the minors. After all, early in the off season it was Ryan who said May would get a chance to start, meanwhile now it is reportedly Molitor who said he wants to see him in the pen.

 

I respect the autonomy, but if there are any major philosophical differences I think that's a problem and in my opinion the youth/experience balance is a pretty major part of the game right now.

 

Not that I'm trying to take Ryan off the hook or put Molitor on it, I have no clue how the dynamic actually works.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's possible Ryan would handle the young players on the roster differently, but Gardenhire and Molitor felt more comfortable with the vets.

I don't think so.  On the bullpen, for example, TR is the one who put Stauffer, Boyer, and Thompson on the team last spring, with similar blueprints for years past.  I'd guess they are on pretty close to the same page.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think so.  On the bullpen, for example, TR is the one who put Stauffer, Boyer, and Thompson on the team last spring, with similar blueprints for years past.  I'd guess they are on pretty close to the same page.

 

My eyes just bled a little.....

[jimmer]

Wade dav is was moved to the pen by the Rays before he was ever traded. They had already concluded he was a relieved. Why KC chose to try again I don't know.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Has TR said he prefers May in the pen?  I know he said they still see him as a starter, and that he would get a chance to start in the spring, but that's not necessarily incompatible with what Molitor is saying here.

[DocBauer]

A lot of Posts I would like to like, but not sure I can on my phone. Good debates! To me, there are some obvious points.

 

1) The bullpen is very important, needs help, and May could be a huge factor now and in the future. If we are talking 2016 and then a move back to the rotation, (much like the much mentioned Cardinals) I can be on board. BUT...

 

2) Removing a talented young starter from the rotation this early in his career makes no sense to me. And the reason to move him? "Because we don't have anyone else." WELL..

 

3) Go get someone! There are/were FA and trade targets available. Get a LH and a RH, possibly on a short term contract since there are several talented young RH arms on the way.

 

4) We don't need a LH starter just for the sake of having one. No offense to the solid Milone, but if you want your top 5 SP to actually start, it would be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and May.

 

Berrios begins at Rochester. When someone is dinged, he comes up. You can always move May to the pen later in the season if you really need to. (injuries, poor performance, numbers crunch, etc).

 

I'm with Leviathan, why can't Milone be helpful in the pen? (Assuming you don't trade him)

 

Lastly, Nolasco fits nowhere in this equation. Move him for whatever you can get. I don't care if it's a bucket of batting practice balls. It's time for a fresh start for both parties.

[Seth Stohs]

 

And this makes me wonder how often the on-field staff makes choices that the front office wouldn't. I think the Twins pride themselves on not micro-managing, but we've seen young guys like Vargas, Arcia, Buxton, Kepler and Santana ride the bench instead of getting reps and there's no doubt that aside from May, it was the veterans who got the most high profile relief innings and first crack at the rotation.

 

I mean, Buxton, Kepler, Vargas, Santana were getting bench time in crunch time in September, and to me, that's totally fine. THey were in a playoff push. I have no problem with that. And, Arcia was sent to Rochester quickly and played there a lot. He didn't spend much time on the bench. 

 

If Arcia and Kepler are in the big leagues and sitting on the bench much in April through August, I would have a problem with it. 

[James Richter]

 

4) We don't need a LH starter just for the sake of having one. No offense to the solid Milone, but if you want your top 5 SP to actually start, it would be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey and May.

To underscore this, take a look at the current team WAR projections for SP at Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8

 

They have Duffey, Berrios & Meyer combining for 2.3 WAR over 177 IP. Nolasco & Milone combine for 2.0 WAR over 192 IP. Removing those 2 and giving twice as many IP to the young guys should improve the rotation somewhat.

 

But May's projection, prorated to 190 IP, would be about 3.0 WAR. In 31+ IP as a reliever last year he was worth 0.5 WAR, so let's give him 1.0 over a full season in that role. Probably more valuable in the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

I like WAR as an aide to understanding relative value. I don't like WAR for RP all that much, frankly.

 

edit:

That said, your point stands.....if Berrios and Duffey are not in the rotation, the Twins are not fielding the guys most likely to be the best SP.

[jimmer]

Phil Hughes FIP in 2015 was 4.70. It was 4.56 in 2012 and 4.50 in 2013. Those are very close.

 

His 2014 FIP was 2.65.  

 

[jimmer]

If May stays in the bullpen, it will be yet another horrible decision.  Won't at all be a surprising one, but horrible nonetheless.

[Halsey Hall]

 

Has TR said he prefers May in the pen?  I know he said they still see him as a starter, and that he would get a chance to start in the spring, but that's not necessarily incompatible with what Molitor is saying here.

TR said Duffey would be in the rotation and May this spring will be fighting for a rotation spot.  And I agree, that's not incompatible with what Molitor is saying. 

[SwainZag]

 

If May stays in the bullpen, it will be yet another horrible decision.  Won't at all be a surprising one, but horrible nonetheless.

I think that depends.

 

What do you do if you are TR and Nolasco comes to ST in shape and healthy and looks like his old self?  If the Twins ran out a rotation of Hughes-Santana-Nolasco-Duffy-Milone with May as a primary setup man with Jepson and Perkins, I think I could handle it.

 

Then again if Nolasco comes out as a shell of himself, Milone is traded, someone gets injured etc. I don't think I could watch May in the pen.  

[Thrylos]

 

Another indefensible decision by the Twins, if this happens. How any manager cannot see the wasted talent (losing 130+ innings) is something else.

 

Not all innings are made the same. I'd rather see the better pitchers in high leverage situations.  Here is an example:

 

Glen Perkins

 

2008: 151.1 IP,  102 PAs in high leverage situations; that was his best season as a starter at age 25
2012: 70.1 IP, 92 PAs in high leverage situations, and the Twins were bad so not many of those
2015: 57 IP, 118 PAs in high leverage situations, and he was bad ho he sat for a while

 

So, May likely will see more opponents in high leverage situations out of the pen, than starting...

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Phil Hughes FIP in 2015 was 4.70. It was 4.56 in 2012 and 4.50 in 2013. Those are very close.

 

His 2014 FIP was 2.65.  

FIP is a terrible stat to use for Hughes. His peripherals have radically changed. He went from a 2.5 BB/9 to a sub-1.0 BB/9. Previous to 2015, he was an 18-19 K% guy. He dropped to 14.4% in 2015, which coincided with a drop in fastball velo. He went from an extreme hitters park to the relative comfort of Target Field (not to mention switching divisions) and enjoyed extreme HR luck in 2014 and extreme not-luck in 2015.

 

The numbers look the same but it's white noise. How Hughes got there is so radically different the number is basically meaningless. Hughes could be regressing or he could have been injured but the fact that his 2015 FIP was similar to his 2013 FIP means little.

[Boom Boom]

Lots of people are bullish on Duffey, but let us not forget about Santana, and Vargas, and Pinto, and Parmelee. It can happen to pitchers, too.

[kab21]

 

Why is Milone to the pen never discussed?  Are we so hung up on the idea of having a lefty in the rotation that we won't even consider him?

 

His career splits aren't great, but last year he kicked the bejesus out of left handed hitters.  Move him to the pen to be a left-handed setup man and give May a shot at being better.

 

Yet some people believe May can only be what he's managed to be in less than a year's worth of starts.  (25)  What happened to letting a kid adjust. 

 

Some of the same people that minimize May's ceiling are the same ones that gave Aaron Hicks and Trevor Plouffe dozens of chances to develop into a functional player.  But May is cooked and best for the bullpen?

 

I guess there have been some that don't like May as a starter but this really isn't the opinion of many and definitely not myself.  May is certainly a better starter than Milone but the bullpen needs a backend guy.  The rotation actually looks pretty good overall (albeit lacking a #1/2) for the first time in a long time.

 

If the Twins bring in a Jepsen level RP'er then I would strongly prefer May in the rotation and Milone in the bullpen but Milone is most likely a 6th inning guy or a lefty specialist. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

 Milone is most likely a 6th inning guy or a lefty specialist. 

 

Milone:

Career against LHH: .256/.316/.415, 4.47 FIP against RHH: .267/.311/.434, 4.16 FIP

 

I'd take Duensing (.233/.289/.325, 2.82 FIP against LHH), thank you.

 

[sane09]

 

I'd take Duensing (.233/.289/.325, 2.82 FIP against LHH), thank you.

If you take him and the Twins don't, I second that emotion!

[TheLeviathan]

 

Milone:

Career against LHH: .256/.316/.415, 4.47 FIP against RHH: .267/.311/.434, 4.16 FIP

 

I'd take Duensing (.233/.289/.325, 2.82 FIP against LHH), thank you.

 

His career splits aren't great, but they were freaking good last year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I guess there have been some that don't like May as a starter but this really isn't the opinion of many and definitely not myself.  May is certainly a better starter than Milone but the bullpen needs a backend guy.  The rotation actually looks pretty good overall (albeit lacking a #1/2) for the first time in a long time.

 

If the Twins bring in a Jepsen level RP'er then I would strongly prefer May in the rotation and Milone in the bullpen but Milone is most likely a 6th inning guy or a lefty specialist. 

 

May has 25 starts, he shouldn't be shunned to the bullpen at this point.  

 

The Twins mistakes are compounding now: no reliever signed so now we shuffle May down.  2016 should be about seeing just what May's ceiling really is as a starter.

[sane09]

Why do so many posters want May in the rotation instead of Berrios on Opening Day?

Berrios is the Twins #1 pitching prospect and May was NEVER that.

Berrios is considered MLB-ready, far beyond his age.

IMO, keep May in the pen until Burdi, Chargois, Rogers, Reed and ? arrive. Rotation should be Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Duffey and Berrios, until May can be moved in from the bullpen to replace one of the above.