La Velle E Neal: Molitor Leaning Towards Having May in Twins Bullpen

[USAFChief]

I think May is a necessity in the pen, even IF they add two arms of his caliber, and they aren't going to add even one.

 

Plus I think May is way overrated around here as a starter.

[TheLeviathan]

No matter how you feel about where May should be, deciding this now is absolutely indefensible.

[tobi0040]

 

As expected and as it should be.  May was out-pitched (as a starter) by every one (even Pelfrey) except Nolasco (who stunk last year).  Face it, there are 5 guys with major league experience on the team who were better than May--and that doesn't include Berrios or any other minor league pitcher in the system.  May had success in relief with plenty of expectation that will continue.  

 

May was first in FIP as a starter (3.35) and second in K/9 (7.88), to Nolasco.  Nolasco obviously had a very small sample.

 

FIP and k/9 are more predictive than ERA, especially through 15 starts.

 

May has better stuff than everyone else.  You take that for 200 IP and you will get better results.

 

 

[bluechipper]

 

I think May is a necessity in the pen, even IF they add two arms of his caliber, and they aren't going to add even one.

Plus I think May is way overrated around here as a starter.

May, along with Duffey, are the only starters who have the potential to strike guys out. May was probably better than his ERA as a starter showed last year.

[d-mac]

 

I understand why they're moving in this direction but I don't have to like it.

 

May should be starting over either Nolasco or Milone.

 

Though I disagree that May should be starting over the likes of Hughes or Santana (particularly Hughes). While Trevor has upside, he hasn't shown the ability to come anywhere near Hughes' 2014 season, either in metrics or innings pitched. Hughes gets the nod before May, as do Gibson and Santana due to consistency, albeit mediocre consistency.

 

After that, it should be a free-for-all for the two remaining spots in the rotation.

 

Everybody is giving Hughes a pass because of 2014. But his 2014 looks an awful lot like a statistical outlier. he just doesn't have that track record. 2015 is closer to his career average. He just doesn't have enough pitches to be anything more than a back-end starter, but his fastball/curveball combo would play up in the pen. May should be in the rotation. Putting him in the bullpen is a fireable offense to me. 

[d-mac]

 

One would think that stating blatantly obvious truths wouldn't be needed at this point!

 

But sadly, we are all fans of one of the worst run teams in the American League. 

[kab21]

If I am Molitor and my bullpen has Perkins (injury concern), Jepsen (good but not great), Fien and some interesting but not proven prospects then I also put May in the bullpen when the rotation is pretty deep.

 

But I would have gone a different direction (still time) this offseason.  A direction where needing May in the bullpen wasn't a necessity.  I might have even tried to get a younger guy or two up and established last year (or the year before).

[d-mac]

 

As expected and as it should be.  May was out-pitched (as a starter) by every one (even Pelfrey) except Nolasco (who stunk last year).  Face it, there are 5 guys with major league experience on the team who were better than May--and that doesn't include Berrios or any other minor league pitcher in the system.  May had success in relief with plenty of expectation that will continue.  

 

False. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

[d-mac]

 

If I am Molitor and my bullpen has Perkins (injury concern), Jepsen (good but not great), Fien and some interesting but not proven prospects then I also put May in the bullpen when the rotation is pretty deep.

 

But I would have gone a different direction (still time) this offseason.  A direction where needing May in the bullpen wasn't a necessity.  I might have even tried to get a younger guy or two up and established last year (or the year before).

 

If I'm Molitor I'm putting Hughes in the bullpen and Milone is my long-man and demanding to TR to dump Nolasco for whatever he can. Because my job, as the team's manager, is to put the players in the best position to win games. And that means Santana, May, Duffey, Gibson, and Berrios are my starting 5. 

[tobi0040]

 

False. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

 

Interesting to look at Innings / WAR, or how many innings it took to accumlate 1 WAR.Yeah, send May to the pen.  Nice work Twins. 

 

 

1. May    46
2. Duffey 48
3. Nolasco
4. Gibson   77
5. Pelfrey 82
6. Ervin  83
7. Milone 90
8. Hughes 152

[TheLeviathan]

Why is Milone to the pen never discussed?  Are we so hung up on the idea of having a lefty in the rotation that we won't even consider him?

 

His career splits aren't great, but last year he kicked the bejesus out of left handed hitters.  Move him to the pen to be a left-handed setup man and give May a shot at being better.

 

Yet some people believe May can only be what he's managed to be in less than a year's worth of starts.  (25)  What happened to letting a kid adjust. 

 

Some of the same people that minimize May's ceiling are the same ones that gave Aaron Hicks and Trevor Plouffe dozens of chances to develop into a functional player.  But May is cooked and best for the bullpen?

 

[markos]

 

May was first in FIP as a starter (3.35) and second in K/9 (7.88), to Nolasco.  Nolasco obviously had a very small sample.

 

FIP and k/9 are more predictive than ERA, especially through 15 starts.

 

May has better stuff than everyone else.  You take that for 200 IP and you will get better results.

I'm not 100% certain that the normal FIP/xFIP/k/9 rules apply to May. He struggles with runners on base, and his splits there are significantly larger than league average. Additionally, he has very high BABIPs, which may not be just randomness. These are issues that have plagued him throughout his minor league career. He has had only one season (2012 in AA) with a BABIP less than .305, and a majority season with a BABIP of .320 or higher. He might end up being another pitcher like Nolsaco who consistently underperforms his FIP.

[jharaldson]

I have created a spreadsheet with the Twins starters in the mix using only their 2015 numbers as a starter.

 

 

In my mind this shows that if you believe in the newer baseball stat models that May was a superior pitcher to Milone in K%, BB%, FIP, xFIP, ect....  If you are a more old school baseball mind and just look at the ERA and see that May's was higher then you say Milone was superior.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Everybody is giving Hughes a pass because of 2014. But his 2014 looks an awful lot like a statistical outlier. he just doesn't have that track record. 2015 is closer to his career average. He just doesn't have enough pitches to be anything more than a back-end starter, but his fastball/curveball combo would play up in the pen. May should be in the rotation. Putting him in the bullpen is a fireable offense to me. 

Hughes' 2015 was more of an aberration than 2014, which was also an outlier in the other direction but Phil's 2015 was way off the norm for his career.

 

Career K%: 19.3%

2015 K%: 14.4%

 

Career Swinging Strike: 8.2%

2015 Swinging Strike: 5.2%

 

Career Contact Rate: 83.7%

2015 Contact Rate: 89.2%

 

Career fastball velo: 92.1 mph

2015 fastball velo: 90.7 mph

 

Hughes is only entering his age 30 season. He should be in the rotation because he has upside. Maybe not year in, year out 2014 upside but the guy can pitch and pitch well.

[d-mac]

 

I'm not 100% certain that the normal FIP/xFIP/k/9 rules apply to May. He struggles with runners on base, and his splits there are significantly larger than league average. Additionally, he has very high BABIPs, which may not be just randomness. These are issues that have plagued him throughout his minor league career. He has had only one season (2012 in AA) with a BABIP less than .305, and a majority season with a BABIP of .320 or higher. He might end up being another pitcher like Nolsaco who consistently underperforms his FIP.

 

He's still young, and learning. He only has 25 major league starts under his belt. He improved alot from last fall to this past spring. Give him some time to figure it out. But the only way he can do that is in the starting rotation. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Interesting to look at Innings / WAR, or how many innings it took to accumlate 1 WAR.Yeah, send May to the pen.  Nice work Twins. 

 

 

1. May    46

2. Duffey 48

3. Nolasco

4. Gibson   77

5. Pelfrey 82

6. Ervin  83

7. Milone 90

8. Hughes 152

Interesting look at it, and maybe even an acceptable use of WAR ,thanks

[tobi0040]

Here I thought the problem was acquiring good pitchers.

 

We have moved onto another.  Keeping a good pitcher in the rotation.  Never thought that would be an issue.

[Dantes929]

 

On the May topic, I don't have any problem with this.

 

In my opinion, he can be an average major league starter, probably a four, with a chance to be a three. There's value in that. But, he also has a better chance of being a dominant 8th (or 9th) inning guy and soon. 

 

I think that the Twins are now in Win-Now mode, as opposed to building, so I think this is the right plan for the 2016 Twins. It also is likely the best move for Trevor. 

 

Santana is a given, and rightfully so.

Hughes is a given, and rightfully so. Obviously he's going to have to show that 2015 was an off year and that 2014 was closer to what he can be. We'll see.

Gibson is a given, and rightfully so.

Duffey SHOULD BE a given for opening day. I think he earned that.

Milone is a given, unless he's traded.

Berrios should be up soon. 

Nolasco isn't a given for anything. I think they're past caring about the contract at this point.

 

Easy choice... 

This was a discussion point with Chief on another board.   If you think he is a #4 starter then the bullpen is a very obvious choice.    That is not the ceiling I see on him at all.   If I had to qualify it I would expect him to be a #2 and don't know his ceiling.   The big rip on him was always his command, not his stuff.  Now he has made command a strength instead of a weakness.   I discount his final starts in 2014 and his first ones in 2015 to nerves and confidence.     He looks like he is in control now and I think what he showed in his last 9 starts and his bullpen stats as what we can look for in the future.   He has command and stuff which I think would result in much closer to a 3 ERA.   I don't know what that makes him in peoples's mind as far as a # of starter.   I just know a 3 ERA is almost a run better than anything we have had in quite a while.   

 

While I understand May can be an asset in the bullpen and will be disappointed if he doesn't start I won't be mad about it.       If Duffey pitches well in ST and is not in the rotation, then I will be mad.   He earned his shot in the minors and was the best starter down the stretch last year.    This should make him the guy that has a spot to lose rather than be the guy that has to prove himself over others.   If May is in the pen the pecking order should be Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone, Hughes, Berrios and Nolasco.   The first three should be written in ink.   Milone and Hughes can be switched and Berrios and Nolasco can be switched but Duffey should be in there til he proves he shouldn't be.

[Dantes929]

 

I think May is a necessity in the pen, even IF they add two arms of his caliber, and they aren't going to add even one.

Plus I think May is way overrated around here as a starter.

That is the crux of it all and if that is the Twins viewpoint as well then it is defensible.  If the decision is made on those merits I am fine with it.   If they are doing it because they are paying Noalsco a lot of money then I am less fine with it.    I personally think May would be our best starter, at least in terms of most quality starts.    Its just an opinion and I have been wrong before and if May is stuck in the pen we will never know.   

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm pretty sure Ryan has said May will begin as a starter in ST, so this almost sounds like Molitor holding May hostage for relief help. Solution: acquire a reliever for 2016, Ryan!

[tobi0040]

 

This was a discussion point with Chief on another board.   If you think he is a #4 starter then the bullpen is a very obvious choice.    That is not the ceiling I see on him at all.   If I had to qualify it I would expect him to be a #2 and don't know his ceiling.   The big rip on him was always his command, not his stuff.  Now he has made command a strength instead of a weakness.   I discount his final starts in 2014 and his first ones in 2015 to nerves and confidence.     He looks like he is in control now and I think what he showed in his last 9 starts and his bullpen stats as what we can look for in the future.   He has command and stuff which I think would result in much closer to a 3 ERA.   I don't know what that makes him in peoples's mind as far as a # of starter.   I just know a 3 ERA is almost a run better than anything we have had in quite a while.   

 

While I understand May can be an asset in the bullpen and will be disappointed if he doesn't start I won't be mad about it.       If Duffey pitches well in ST and is not in the rotation, then I will be mad.   He earned his shot in the minors and was the best starter down the stretch last year.    This should make him the guy that has a spot to lose rather than be the guy that has to prove himself over others.   If May is in the pen the pecking order should be Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone, Hughes, Berrios and Nolasco.   The first three should be written in ink.   Milone and Hughes can be switched and Berrios and Nolasco can be switched but Duffey should be in there til he proves he shouldn't be.

 

My thoughts are, if he is a #4 starter or a dominant set up guy than put him in the pen.  

 

Seth and maybe the Twins appear to have already concluded that.  But how could we already know? He has been given no leash to show what he has.  25 starts at ages 24 and 25 and we are concluding things? 

Some others have pointed to the leash and patience we have had with Hicks.  How about Plouffe?  How about Cuddyer?  Hunter? 

 

FYI, Get ready for stretching out being an issue all year when the rotation falters and we reach down to AAA for an additional 10-15 starts.

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

As of today, this would be my rotation:

 

Hughes - Lock, Written in Pen

Gibson - Lock, Written in Pen

Santana - Lock, Written in Pen

 

May - Lightly Penciled

Duffey - Lightly Penciled

 

Milone and Nolasco would enter camp looking in from the outside. If one or more of those guys are injured/out of shape/whatever in mid-February, then you alter plans as necessary.

 

This rotation needs upside. Those guys bring a mix of upside and consistency. If the first three guys pitch to something resembling career norms and the latter two guys pitch as they did in 2015 - or something close to it - that's a solid rotation. It won't win any awards but it's the kind of rotation that can keep a team in contention through a season (never mind the possible addition of Berrios).

[Dantes929]

 

One would think that stating blatantly obvious truths wouldn't be needed at this point!

Stating blatantly obvious truths wouldn't be needed but what makes this a blatantly obvious truth?   Average is underrated.   If a team is made up of mostly average players and have just a couple that are above average then the team will be above average.    Specifically if Milone is an average starter then statistically that equates to a #3.     There is no reason to think that Sano will fail as a right fielder and if you think the risk of injury is too great then you might as well  just tell him not to run out ground balls either because the risk is probably much greater there.   The guy started as a shortstop and I am guessing is faster than Arcia, Hunter, Willingham  and just as fast as many others on the roster.   The question about whether he can catch a ball will be answered soon enough.    

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

Another indefensible decision by the Twins, if this happens. How any manager cannot see the wasted talent (losing 130+ innings) is something else.

 

"Moving Wade Davis to the bullpen is a waste of 130 innings from a major league starter", said someone somewhere in the KC Royals universe.  

 

Innings are an irrelevant statistic, quality innings that impact wins and losses matter much more.  If May can lock down the 8th inning virtually every night for the Twins this season, then the number of innings he pitches is irrelevant.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

My thoughts are, if he is a #4 starter or a dominant set up guy than put him in the pen.  

 

Seth and maybe the Twins appear to have already concluded that.  But how could we already know? He has been given no leash to show what he has.  25 starts at ages 24 and 25 and we are concluding things? 

Some others have pointed to the leash and patience we have had with Hicks.  How about Plouffe?  How about Cuddyer?  Hunter? 

 

FYI, Get ready for stretching out being an issue all year when the rotation falters and we reach down to AAA for an additional 10-15 starts.

 

I haven't concluded that... but scouting reports and performance have said he's probably a #4 now, and he can be a #3. #2s in MLB are pretty rare. Could he be that... maybe?

 

I like that he'll get a shot in spring. I hope he gets a real shot. But, I think with the numbers game as it is, he is most likely to go to the bullpen.

[Hrbowski]

I totally understand and agree. I have never been a fan of May in the rotation.

[tobi0040]

 

"Moving Wade Davis to the bullpen is a waste of 130 innings from a major league starter", said someone somewhere in the KC Royals universe.  

 

Innings are an irrelevant statistic, quality innings that impact wins and losses matter much more.  If May can lock down the 8th inning virtually every night for the Twins this season, then the number of innings he pitches is irrelevant.  

 

That is easily one of the most drastic starter to reliever splits ever.  If memory serves I don't know if the Royals concluded he would neccesarily be a better reliever, but that he wasn't one of the best five starters at that point but he was still one of their better 12 pitchers.    If we conclude that, so be it.  Just way premature to do so.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I haven't concluded that... but scouting reports and performance have said he's probably a #4 now, and he can be a #3. #2s in MLB are pretty rare. Could he be that... maybe?

If May is probably a number #4 -- what does that make the rest of our rotation?

[clutterheart]

Its not fun to think about May in the bullpen

Its more fun to think of a Rotation that looks like:

Santana

Hughes

Duffey

May 

Berrios

 

 

 

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

I'll drink the organizational Kool-Aid on this one. Give the Nolasco debacle one more try, and when he fails again, call up Berrios. I like the roster options. May's flexibility is an asset, not a liability.