La Velle E Neal: Molitor Leaning Towards Having May in Twins Bullpen

[d-mac]

 

This split is something that has plagued May since his days with the Phillies. 

 

Regardless, we are kind of getting in the weeds here. The point I was trying to get across is that I don't think it is an open-and-shut case that May is one of the top-5 starters on this team, much less the best that his 3.35 FIP might indicate. Some of May's particular outliers (men-on-base splits, high BABIPs) that he has consistently demonstrated over the past 8 seasons will cause his FIP to overstate his actual run-prevention abilities. Not by a lot, but by enough that the gap between him and someone like Milone isn't as large as it might seem.

 

Other stats back this up. Baseball Prospectus's DRA ranked May as only their 5th best starter last season:

 

Santana 3.79
Gibson   3.88
Duffey    3.99
Milone    4.03
May        4.43
Pelfrey   4.54
Hughes  4.98

 

Further, as we project next season, we should really be looking at xFIP rather than FIP. And xFIP isn't nearly so kind to May (3.96 as a starter last year), and the gap between May and Milone is pretty tiny -just 0.26, or basically 5 runs over the full season.

 

We will know more once more projection systems release their numbers for next year (ZIPS, PECOTA, etc). Right now we only have Steamer on Fangraphs, and unfortunately they only project May's numbers as a reliever. 

 

Right now, my personal 'best rotation' would be:

 

Hughes (assuming full health)

Gibson

Santana

Berrios

Duffey

 

I have May and Milone as my #6 and #7, with Duffey, May and Milone all very close.

 

I have no idea what DRA is, since I don't follow BP much, but I don't have a ton of confidence in something that differs from xFIP and SEIRA by that much. But I don't think Hughes, Santana, or Gibson are as good as you think they are. Let's do some comparisons: 

 

                                 xFIP         SEIRA*

Santana: Career:   4.18          4.11

                 2015:      4.42         4.43

 

Gibson:  Career:   4.07          4.22

                 2015:     3.95          4.12

 

Milone:   Career:   4.22          4.23

                 2015:     4.22          4.39

 

Duffey:     2015:    3.64          3.83

 

Hughes:  Career:  4.17          3.95

                 2015:    4.31           4.39

 

May:        Career:  4.09          3.72

                  2015:   3.96           3.53

 

*Fangraphs doesn't have splits for SEIRA, so they are not adjusted for starter/reliever.

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

My conclusion is that the Twins wrongly believe there is an MLB rule that you must have a lefty starter in your rotation.  Only thing I could come up with.

I would guess it has something to do with his career 41-29 record.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would guess it has something to do with his career 41-29 record.

 

That may be a worse reason.

[tobi0040]

 

Ryan is as straight a shooter as you'll find in a GM. Could be a comprehension issue for the listener here.

 

Yes.  Like the token comment of "the budget will not limit what we do this offseason" every year.

[Brandon]

I keep seeing lots of comments for the maximum rotation.  and I agree for a maximum rotation There are lots of good comments and alignments.  But we are talking about a rotation built for 162 games.  we had 7 starters with 10 starts and an 8th starter with 8 starts last year.  We should be building our rotation with that in mind and not in banking on having the top 5 starters start every game or only needing a 6th starter. 

 

to have maximum depth the best alignment is to start the season with the veterans.

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Nolasco

Millone

 

If Nolasco doesn't pitch well in spring then he should be outrighted off the 40 man and sent to AAA.  he wont be claimed and will accept the assignment because he wont want to forfeit the money on his contract.  He will be pitching for his career though as it is now on the line.  If he is solid he should be given a chance to rebuild some value and traded of course. 

 

Now who should the 6th starter be if someone gets hurt?  May, Duffey, or Berrios?  I would go with Duffey at this point and is why the Twins are deciding if they should just keep May in the pen.  Spring May be different that is why TR is telling him to be ready to start.  So the Twins will have the best starter ready or in the rotation due to contingencies. 

 

As far as the bullpen goes, The Twins are closing in on a large number of relievers being ready to come up.  So instead of committing to a long term reliever contract the Twins are looking for short term gaps such as Rodney, Cotts, Thorton, or even May.  I wouldn't even mind if Boyer was invited back to spring as a minor league free agent. 

 

While Millone or Nolasco could be with the Twins in 2017 I kind of doubt it and May can compete for a rotation spot then too if he isn't our closer then. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Nolasco doesn't pitch well in spring then he should be outrighted off the 40 man and sent to AAA.  he wont be claimed and will accept the assignment because he wont want to forfeit the money on his contract.

This is incorrect.  Nolasco can refuse the assignment and keep his salary too, which he almost assuredly would do.  The Twins would then have to release him to clear the roster spot, like the Cubs eventually did with Edwin Jackson.

 

Otherwise, you would see lots of underperforming veterans on big contracts outrighted to AAA, as the player would have virtually no financial choice in the matter.

 

Rules here:

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3531

 

 

If a player with Article XIX-A rights refuses an Outright Assignment but does not elect free-agency, the club must either retain the player on the club's MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), trade the player, or give the player his unconditional release.

 

[stringer bell]

Depth in the rotation is necessary. If you remember neither Pelf or May made the original starting 5 and one or both of them was in the rotation from beginning to end and the Twins didn't have any catastrophic injuries to their pitchers in 2015. I hope Berrios pitches his way to the Twins before his birthday, but the guys in the #4 and #5 slots can probably be assured they will get their starts if they stay effective.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Depth in the rotation is necessary. If you remember neither Pelf or May made the original starting 5 and one or both of them was in the rotation from beginning to end and the Twins didn't have any catastrophic injuries to their pitchers in 2015.

Nolasco missed almost the whole season (basically 5 of 6 months), and another starter (Santana) missed half the season (the same half that May started).  Within the context of one season, I'd say at least the former if not also the latter classify as catastrophic (although some of us welcomed the respite from Nolasco).

[stringer bell]

I did forget about Nolasco in the context of catastrophic injury, although it was only an old injury that came back to bite him, but the basic truth remains that if a guy in the rotation puts up OK numbers, they will probably start every fifth day. Guys lined up as 6-8 will probably get a shot, as well.

[DaveW]

This is why I didn't want them to tender Milone a contract this year. Not because he doesn't have value (he does) but because the Twins would owe him significant money (in their eyes) he would be blocking guys like May, and possibly Berrios.

 

TR should have had a trade lined up for Milone prior to the winter meetings, now we are stuck with him in the rotation for quite some time even if he fails (look how long we kept the leash for Pelfrey etc because he was drawing a decent salary)

[h2oface]

 

What does "athletic" have to do with pitching?
I have two words for you............Bartolo Colon.

 

Well, sometimes satire misses the recipient. The athletic bit is just repeating the meme about the reasons of sending Sano to the outfield. But seriously, to reply to your two words for me, briefly, as to not go to far off subject...... just think how much better Colon might be if he was a person that took care of himself, especially at his age. Being in shape and athletic condition never hurts and can help one achieve being the best they can be. Being soft and out of shape certainly didn't help Perkins or Hughes last year. But by all means, if you are fond of the tubby exceptions like Colon and Sabathia (I guess Sabathia can't be used as an example anymore), embrace it as you like.

[sane09]

 

I don't even understand how Milone hasn't been traded already.

I think the plan is to first trade the players away that Twins don't like, before they start on yours.

[sane09]

 

Well, sometimes satire misses the recipient. The athletic bit is just repeating the meme about the reasons of sending Sano to the outfield. But seriously, to reply to your two words for me, briefly, as to not go to far off subject...... just think how much better Colon might be if he was a person that took care of himself, especially at his age. Being in shape and athletic condition never hurts and can help one achieve being the best they can be. Being soft and out of shape certainly didn't help Perkins or Hughes last year. But by all means, if you are fond of the tubby exceptions like Colon and Sabathia (I guess Sabathia can't be used as an example anymore), embrace it as you like.

Not embracing tubby exceptions.

Just suggesting that non-athletes can pitch, but are less likely to become MLB position players.

[Willihammer]

Follow up on my last post. I tallied pitcher seasons during the TR era (min 10 GS). Very quick and dirty look at averages of those season totals below. LHSPs have done better overall.

 

[Willihammer]

Even taking out Santana the average SP seasons have been about equal.