35 million dollars ... 3 pitchers vs an ace

[DaveW]

Hughes: 9.2 million dollars (13+ mil starting in 2017 for 3! years). 4.58 ERA. 147 IP. 1.6 WAR

Santana: 13.5 million dollars (next few years) 4.55 ERA 87 IP. 0.5 WAR

Nolasco: 12 million dollars. 5.51 ERA. 32.2 IP. NEGATIVE 0.3 WAR

 

Those have been the big Terry Ryan "splashes" in free agency the past two years. For all this talk about the Twins never being able to afford an "ace" it should be noted that for 35 million+ per year, the Twins could easily sign a REAL ace like David Price etc and still have 10 million left over to sign a solid #2

Instead, what do we have? A couple number 3's and a guy whole might someday become a number 5 again some day.

[SF Twins Fan]

So Santana is at best a number 3??? His last 4 starts including tonight he has gone 29 innings and only giving up 4 runs.  That looks pretty good to me.  He's definitely not an ace but he's better than a number 3.  Two years ago who Ryan signed Hughes and Nolasco the Twins were in the middle of their 2nd and 3rd straight 90+ losing seasons.  What "ace" in their right mind would want to come to the Twins and play when they have multiple options and can pick a good team???

[DaveW]

After tonight Santana has a 4.55 ERA, has he been awesome these last three starts? Absolutely! But he has also looked dreadful in way too many games. He has talent no doubt, but the inconsistency keeps him from being a #1 or #2.

 

As far as ace pitchers going to better teams etc etc, Money talks. Always has, always will. Pretty sure Price will goto about 26 different teams this off-season if they offer enough cashola.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- this thread will be OK if people can focus on the wisdom of the signings of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco compared with the other options that were available.  

 

Please do NOT turn this into yet another broad debate about every possible reason why TR should or should not be fired.  And please be factual and civil.

[DaveW]

 

Moderator note -- this thread will be OK if people can focus on the wisdom of the signings of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco compared with the other options that were available.  

 

Please do NOT turn this into yet another broad debate about every possible reason why TR should or should not be fired.  And please be factual and civil.

No problem, it's an honest question/topic IMO and part of a bigger debate: Is it better to pay for an ace in FA and fill in the middle rotation guys with cheaper signings/farm/trade. Or is it better to pay for a couple mid rotation guys?

 

My buddy who is a Rangers fan was the one who sparked the discussion with me earlier today by basically saying, for that money we could have had either Hamels or Darvish and still had enough money left over for a Colby Lewis type.

[Badsmerf]

I'm in the ace boat. By far better use of money. When you pay for mediocrity you take a risk. Those players fluctuate year to year like Hughes has. Do this same thing for last year and he is a steal, average the two together and his contract looks OK.

[glunn]

 

I'm in the ace boat. By far better use of money. When you pay for mediocrity you take a risk. Those players fluctuate year to year like Hughes has. Do this same thing for last year and he is a steal, average the two together and his contract looks OK.

 

There is wisdom in your position, but how often do the aces get injured or decline?  Should the Yankees be happy with the Sabathia deal?  Should the Mets be happy with the trade for Yohan Santana?  I don't know.

 

What about mid market teams versus big market teams?  A $25 million contract would represent a much smaller percentage of payroll for the Dodgers than for the Twins, plus Los Angeles has better weather and endorsement opportunities.  How can the Twins compete with the Dodgers and other big market teams without putting too many eggs in one basket?

 

I would also like to see some analysis about deals that were successful and deals that were unsuccessful and that take probabilities/luck into account.

 

I think that there are some fascinating aspects to this, and that the best answer may not be the simplest one.

[DaveW]

Sabathia pitched like an ace for the Yankees until his injury.

 

Johan was a freak injury that nobody saw coming.

 

For each of them you have guys like Verlander, Scherzer, Grienke, Kershaw, Felix, Lester, Hamels, Etc etc who were well worth the price.

 

Conservative is just in the Twins DNA, while other teams risk it for upside, it happens in free agency with mid rotation guys like nolasco, Santana etc and in past drafts like Revere (grrrrr)

 

At the end of the day I would rather the Twins swing big and potentially miss like a Sano at bat, instead of playing it safe and hoping for a slap single (like a revere at bat)

[old nurse]

Sabathia signed for 8 years. 4 of those he will not be worth the money. You think the fans will be happy a 20 some million dollar player that isn't worth the money? See any thread the last 2 years that has a label of Joe Mauer.

In regards to E Santana having a bad year, what pitcher missing the first half of the year has pitched well starting midseason? It can't be easy. The length of spring training to get ready versus a few minor league games. Any judgment of the contract for Santana should wait until next year. 

Aces signing with a new team that is a bad, small or mid market team. Please feel free to refresh my memory.  Buerhle is close, but not really ace. When you have a bad team you have to sign what you can. 30 year old pitchers are a gamble. Nolasco has been injured. Santana suspended. Sometimes if it were not for bad luck, you would have no luck at all

[Major League Ready]

1) What ace was going to come here at the time of these signings?   Name one.  The team was among the worst in baseball.  If you have ever listened to the “Front Office” show on satellite radio, you have heard GMs and former GMs talk about the fact that elite free agents pick where they want to go (2 or 3 teams) and then they let the market forces get them the dollars they want. 

 

2) The rotation at the time was abysmal.   The team era was among the worst in baseball.  As a result, the team was among the worst in baseball.  Even if they could have signed an ace, having a true front of the rotation guy would have had little impact in making this a respectable team much less a contender.   What they needed was a number of arms.

 

3) Acquiring an ace at the time of the Hughes and Nolasco signings would have meant paying someone long past their prime.  So, we would have had this ace as we rebuilt.  It really was not reasonable to expect this team would be back in contention by 2015.  Therefore, the most likely case scenario would have that FA player would have had his best years when we still sucked and been a 3/4 or worse by the time we were hopefully competing.

 

Having said all of this, now we could use an ace.  Hopefully they can dump Nolasco.  The mistake with Hughes was not signing him.  It was extending him.  It is still possible that we can move 2 of our 3 FA SPs over the next year or year and a half and eventually sign a front of the rotation guy.  This team will have added even more young talent by then and also gained some of the experience necessary to win division title and compete in post season.  Just look at Houston this year and KC a couple years ago if you think they still don't need additional experience.  So, lets no complain until the thing actually plays out.

 

So now some of you want to b1t@^ when the problem was fixed adequately to get us in contention.  I would add that the FO went out and got guys that actually should have contributed much more to this return to contention than they have.  However, they did not rely on these players alone.  They added Milone and Pekfrey which many here did nothing but complain about but the fact is they had more to do with us being in contention than Hughes and Nolasco. 

 

The front office took a horrible team and made it into a contender it what is a very reasonable period of time.   This year alone Hicks, Rosario, Escobar, and Sano have proven that they will be valuable pieces going forward.  Duffey also looks like he is an important part of the future.  We have two guys close to contributing in Berrios and Kepler that look like they could be all-star in the future.  In other words, they build this contender without giving away assets and now are in position to make a sustained run.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think you're underestimating Santana and Hughes.  Bother are a bit better than #3s (though Hughes has either played over his head last season or is playing hurt this year, not sure which).  Nolasco pitched pretty well prior to his contract being signed too.  None of these guys were bad pitchers.  And just as there was risk when they were signed, there's risk when you sign the ace. I think the Mets would love to have the Johan contract back.  Most aces dont' age like Roger Clemens. 

[Badsmerf]

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/01/max-scherzer-james-shields-free-agent-pitchers-contracts-100-million-mlb

 

While this is an incomplete article, it highlights some issues. First, signing pitchers to big contacts after they are 30 is a bad idea in most cases. Second, the biggest risk is injury. An example of a preventable injury is santana with the mets. He was abused for a season, then got hurt the next. You have to take care of your assets.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Hughes: 9.2 million dollars (13+ mil starting in 2017 for 3! years). 4.58 ERA. 147 IP. 1.6 WAR

Santana: 13.5 million dollars (next few years) 4.55 ERA 87 IP. 0.5 WAR

Nolasco: 12 million dollars. 5.51 ERA. 32.2 IP. NEGATIVE 0.3 WAR

 

Those have been the big Terry Ryan "splashes" in free agency the past two years. For all this talk about the Twins never being able to afford an "ace" it should be noted that for 35 million+ per year, the Twins could easily sign a REAL ace like David Price etc and still have 10 million left over to sign a solid #2

Instead, what do we have? A couple number 3's and a guy whole might someday become a number 5 again some day.

 

What exactly does Terry Ryan do right these days again?

 

Time for a new GM.

 

It makes me scared to want any kind of big trade. He is just going to get it wrong. It makes me scared to sign free agent. He is just going to get it wrong.

 

The initial signing of Hughes was smart. I still cannot comprehend why they re-upped last offseason. It's really bad general managing.

[spinowner]

Getting an elite free agent is about much more than just offering a big contract. I don't know how many times I've said this, but free agency is the anti-draft. The player chooses the team. Elite free agents will get big payoffs no matter where they sign, so they will almost invariably sign with a team that they feel will have a good shot at the WS. When Greinke was a free agent before the 2013 season the Twins could have outbid the Dodgers by $10M a year and he still wouldn't have come here. At this point, however, I think the Twins are in a position where they could attract a big name.

[Mike Sixel]

Before you say no because the end of the deal is bad, is that how you feel about the Mauer deal?

[bird]

 

No problem, it's an honest question/topic IMO and part of a bigger debate: Is it better to pay for an ace in FA and fill in the middle rotation guys with cheaper signings/farm/trade. Or is it better to pay for a couple mid rotation guys?

 

My buddy who is a Rangers fan was the one who sparked the discussion with me earlier today by basically saying, for that money we could have had either Hamels or Darvish and still had enough money left over for a Colby Lewis type.

 

 

I'm confused about what your buddy is saying. Is he saying it was a good idea at the time to sign Darvish and Lewis as opposed to a couple of "mid rotation" guys like Hughes and Santana?

[bird]

Can we at least stipulate a couple of things when we debate the ace vs. #2-3 starter (Hughes and Nolasco) question?

 

First, let's agree that fans need to accept that it's fair for the team to operate under an annual budget. Let's arbitrarily set it reasonably high, say $125?

 

Second, let's acknowledge that the 6th or 8th year of a contract is equally impactful as the 1st or 3rd years, and therefore fair game to scrutiny, even though it requires speculation regarding its merit. For example, most of us probably consider the Mauer contract to be bad more because of the final 4 years of it than because of the value proposition to-date.

 

 

[spinowner]

 

 Most aces dont' age like Roger Clemens. 

Especially now that PED testing is so much more strict.

[nytwinsfan]

This post makes a fair point, and I think it has some validity, although a couple of qualifications. Hughes WAS AN ACE last year and at least in part it has been injuries keeping him (and others) out this year.  You can't blame Ryan for those injuries. As someone pointed out above, an Ace^TM could have gotten injured too.  In all honesty I would have preferred to have just signed Hughes for the original 3 year deal and then starting this year given Duffy, May, Rodgers, and maybe Berrios at the end more chances to start.

[dbminn]

As others have said, Hughes and Nolasco were signed because the Twins needed veteran pitchers. No ace was going to sign with the Twins in 2014. The deal for Hughes was very reasonable. The Twins had to overpay for Nolasco and the deal hasn't worked out due mainly to injury. The curse of Carl Pavano, I guess.

 

I was against signing Santana. The Twins needed slots for prospects this year and to get an ace in 2016 or 2017. That being said, I also didn't think the Twins would compete this year. To those that have wanted "all in this year", Santana could prove to be the key to winning the wild card... at the expense of future years.

 

 

[sane]

Ace? We don't need no stinkin' ACE!

We coulda been a contender with:

SAMARDZIJA 9-13 5.27 ERA

NORRIS 3-11 7.06 ERA

ANIBAL SANCHEZ 10-10 4.99 ERA

PORCELLO 8-12 5.06 ERA

SABATHIA 4-9 4.93 ERA

TILLMAN 9-11 5.21 ERA

GUTHRIE 8-7 5.55 ERA

[Major League Ready]

 

There is wisdom in your position, but how often do the aces get injured or decline?  Should the Yankees be happy with the Sabathia deal?  Should the Mets be happy with the trade for Yohan Santana?  I don't know.

 

What about mid market teams versus big market teams?  A $25 million contract would represent a much smaller percentage of payroll for the Dodgers than for the Twins, plus Los Angeles has better weather and endorsement opportunities.  How can the Twins compete with the Dodgers and other big market teams without putting too many eggs in one basket?

 

I would also like to see some analysis about deals that were successful and deals that were unsuccessful and that take probabilities/luck into account.

 

I think that there are some fascinating aspects to this, and that the best answer may not be the simplest one.

On one hand this not nearly as simple as some suggest.  One the other hand, if your team has 50 or 100 or even $200M less in revenue then the teams they are bidding against, your team is going to lose that battle in the vast majority of instances.  Its not that complicated.  People who earn a median income usually don't live in million dollar homes.  It's not that complicated.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

After tonight Santana has a 4.55 ERA, has he been awesome these last three starts? Absolutely! But he has also looked dreadful in way too many games. He has talent no doubt, but the inconsistency keeps him from being a #1 or #2.

 

As far as ace pitchers going to better teams etc etc, Money talks. Always has, always will. Pretty sure Price will goto about 26 different teams this off-season if they offer enough cashola.

Seems like a lot of people don't feel the Twins could have signed a true "ace" a few years ago. Santana definitely has had some bad starts but after these last 4 starts has now had more good starts than bad. Yes his ERA is high but the 8 good starts are more in line with his career than the 5 clunkers he's thrown this season.

 

Here are Santana's starts including last night. 

                            IP  H  R  ER  HR  BB  SO  TP

Jul 5  @ KC        8.0  3  2    2    1     3    8     93
Jul 10  vs DET    4.0  8  6    6    3     3    5     81
Jul 17  @ OAK    7.2  5  0   0    0     1    1    103
Jul 23  @ LAA     8.0  4  0   0    0     0    7     91
Jul 29  vs PIT      5.2  8  8   6    2     4    3    107

Aug 3  @ TOR    6.0  6  3   3    2     3    2    108
Aug 8  @ CLE     2.1 10 8   8    0     2    1      71
Aug 13  vs TEX   6.0  8  5   5    1     2    1      92

Aug 19  @ NYY   7.2  7  4   4    2     2    6    108
Aug 25  @ TB     2.2  8  5   5    0     2    1      60
Aug 30  vs HOU  7.0  6  0   0    0     0   10    109
Sep 5  @ HOU    8.0  6  1   1    0     2   11    119

Sep 11  @ CHW 7.0   6  2    2    1     2    6    107
Sep 16  vs DET  7.0   4  2    2    0     4    5    109

 

Santana has had 8 very good starts (Red), 1 average start (Blue) and 5 very bad starts (Black).

 

I'm all for getting an "ace" and would love the Twins to get one but it wasn't reasonable at the time. You can say money talks but it doesn't because most players want to win and go to a team they see winning during their contract years. They are going to get multiple big money offers from good teams.

 

The Twins were terrible the last 4 years and weren't even supposed to be good this year. I could see the Twins waiting to sign an "ace" until after the 2016 season once our prospects have experience and they can free up rotation spots. It's not like Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Escobar, Hicks, Kepler, Gibson, Berrios, May and Duffey are going anywhere. Most of those players are 25 and younger and under team control for a long time. This team is now being built the correct way from the ground up and with mostly their draft picks. That's how you build an annual playoff team and hopefully an annual WS contender. 

[SwainZag]

 

Sabathia pitched like an ace for the Yankees until his injury.

Johan was a freak injury that nobody saw coming.

For each of them you have guys like Verlander, Scherzer, Grienke, Kershaw, Felix, Lester, Hamels, Etc etc who were well worth the price.

Conservative is just in the Twins DNA, while other teams risk it for upside, it happens in free agency with mid rotation guys like nolasco, Santana etc and in past drafts like Revere (grrrrr)

At the end of the day I would rather the Twins swing big and potentially miss like a Sano at bat, instead of playing it safe and hoping for a slap single (like a revere at bat)

 

This is quite the list.  Let's break it down.

 

Verlander:  $28M per season for the next 4 years with a 5th year vesting option.  Is 32, has made $20 and $28M the last two seasons, was injured this year, has a FIP over those 2 years of 3.73 with declining strikeout numbers.  How's that contract looking going forward?

 

Scherzer: How does he even make the list?  He is in the 1st year of a gigantic contract. He technically has 6 years left on his deal, but he will be paid for 14 more years.  What will the Nationals this of this contract later as they are paying him $15M per season until he is 47 years old?

 

Grienke: One of the few that actually looks good. At age 31 he is having his finest season of his career.  With only 3 years @ ~25M apiece left, he could be worth it for the entire length of his contract.

 

Kershaw: In the middle of this prime at age 27, he does not belong on this list.  Yes, he makes a ton of money, $35M per, but will become a free agent following his 32 year old season.

 

Felix: Age 29, has 4 years left on his deal worth ~$27M.  He has certainly been worth his contract so far and even with a down year is an ace.  His contract is set up well.

 

Lester: Having a fine year at age 31 in the first year of a 6 year deal with the Cubs.  Has he been worth it this year, certainly.  But his contract, which averages ~25M takes him through age 36.  Calling him worth it so far, not even 20% into his contract, seems premature.

 

Hamels: He is in year 3 of 6 of his deal.  At age 31, he is certainly been worth it thus far.  His contract takes him through age 34 and averages $23.5M a season.  

 

So on this list you have Kershaw and Felix, who are under the age of 30, still in their prime and still with the team they were drafted by.  Lester and Scherzer two players who signed deals long deals who are still in the 1st year of their deal.  Grienke and Hamels, both in the middle of their contracts, both signed through 34 and both playing very well, and then there is Verlander....who very much looks like an albatross going forward.

 

I the 5 year contract Sabathia signed in 2011 worth $23M per season, he was above average for exactly 1 of them, 2012.  Injury or not he has been a below average pitcher with another year and possibly 2 left on his deal.

 

In your original post you said the Twins could "easily sign" David Price and have $10M left over to sign a real #2 starter.  At age 30 at the level that Price is playing at, you are realistically looking at 28-30M per season, for 6-7 years.  That's not an easy contract for anyone to sign.  The Twins aren't the Dodgers or the Yankees.

 

Who is this solid #2 they are going to sign for $10M that is going to be better than Hughes/Santana?  How long is that contract going to be?

[DaveW]

 

Ace? We don't need no stinkin' ACE!

We coulda been a contender with:

SAMARDZIJA 9-13 5.27 ERA

NORRIS 3-11 7.06 ERA

ANIBAL SANCHEZ 10-10 4.99 ERA

PORCELLO 8-12 5.06 ERA

SABATHIA 4-9 4.93 ERA

TILLMAN 9-11 5.21 ERA

GUTHRIE 8-7 5.55 ERA

Uh, none of those guys with the exception of CC were ever an Ace or considered an ace.

[DaveW]

 

 

This is quite the list.  Let's break it down.

 

Verlander:  $28M per season for the next 4 years with a 5th year vesting option.  Is 32, has made $20 and $28M the last two seasons, was injured this year, has a FIP over those 2 years of 3.73 with declining strikeout numbers.  How's that contract looking going forward?

 

Scherzer: How does he even make the list?  He is in the 1st year of a gigantic contract. He technically has 6 years left on his deal, but he will be paid for 14 more years.  What will the Nationals this of this contract later as they are paying him $15M per season until he is 47 years old?

 

Grienke: One of the few that actually looks good. At age 31 he is having his finest season of his career.  With only 3 years @ ~25M apiece left, he could be worth it for the entire length of his contract.

 

Kershaw: In the middle of this prime at age 27, he does not belong on this list.  Yes, he makes a ton of money, $35M per, but will become a free agent following his 32 year old season.

 

Felix: Age 29, has 4 years left on his deal worth ~$27M.  He has certainly been worth his contract so far and even with a down year is an ace.  His contract is set up well.

 

Lester: Having a fine year at age 31 in the first year of a 6 year deal with the Cubs.  Has he been worth it this year, certainly.  But his contract, which averages ~25M takes him through age 36.  Calling him worth it so far, not even 20% into his contract, seems premature.

 

Hamels: He is in year 3 of 6 of his deal.  At age 31, he is certainly been worth it thus far.  His contract takes him through age 34 and averages $23.5M a season.  

 

So on this list you have Kershaw and Felix, who are under the age of 30, still in their prime and still with the team they were drafted by.  Lester and Scherzer two players who signed deals long deals who are still in the 1st year of their deal.  Grienke and Hamels, both in the middle of their contracts, both signed through 34 and both playing very well, and then there is Verlander....who very much looks like an albatross going forward.

 

I the 5 year contract Sabathia signed in 2011 worth $23M per season, he was above average for exactly 1 of them, 2012.  Injury or not he has been a below average pitcher with another year and possibly 2 left on his deal.

 

In your original post you said the Twins could "easily sign" David Price and have $10M left over to sign a real #2 starter.  At age 30 at the level that Price is playing at, you are realistically looking at 28-30M per season, for 6-7 years.  That's not an easy contract for anyone to sign.  The Twins aren't the Dodgers or the Yankees.

 

Who is this solid #2 they are going to sign for $10M that is going to be better than Hughes/Santana?  How long is that contract going to be?

Kazmir is the guy I wanted the Twins to target the past two years, that is the #2 that costs $10 million a year.

 

In regards to Verlander, not sure how you can say his contract is an albatross moving forward, he was hurt for like the first time ever seemingly this year which lead to early on bad results, however in his lat 10 starts he is looking like the Verlander of old rocking a 2.03 ERA and even a dominant no hitter.

 

Pretty much everyone else on that list besides Sabathia you have used the reasoning "Oh well he has looked good so far, but you never know what will happen in the future!" Sorry, that just isn't a strong argument when you are talking about Nolasco, Santana and Hughes who combined have done zero this year in the present.

[DaveW]

Also, this Twins are a "small market team, therefore they can't sign an ace" meme needs to stop. If teams like Detroit, Texas, Seattle, Toronto, can afford long term huge contracts, there is no reason whatsoever why the Twins can't.

 

Also, money talks, if the Twins offered the most money, an ace would have came here anytime the past 3 years. It's a good ballpark, good city, good fans, young talent, etc.

[DaveW]

You can also add in the pointless overpays for guys like Stauffer, Hunter, Kubel, Bartlett, Pelfrey over the past two years as well, that opens up over 25 million or so more (over 2 seasons) to help sign an impact player.

[Squirrel]

Still ... you don't know, none of us does ... who would have signed with us the last two years? And were those the years to pull the trigger on an ace? Maybe. Is there a good time and a not so good a time to do that? That's part of it for me, I guess. However ... I would like to see one or two of Nolasco, Hughes, Santana moved (i.e. Nolasco gone, Hughes to the pen, maybe?) and the signing of an 'ace' for next year and years to come. Now is the time to jump.  I know, I know ... there are those who think every season is the time ... and you are as welcome to that opinion as I am to mine.

[Squirrel]

 

 

You can also add in the pointless overpays for guys like Stauffer, Hunter, Kubel, Bartlett, Pelfrey over the past two years as well, that opens up over 25 million or so more (over 2 seasons) to help sign an impact player.

One topic at a time ... this thread is about 3 pitchers vs an ace.