35 million dollars ... 3 pitchers vs an ace

[DaveW]

The Twins also refused to retain Santana. Who knows what would have happened. It's widely assumed his arm broke down due to overuse by the Mets. Perhaps if the Twins had spent the cash he could have conitued as a hall of fame caliber pitcher.

 

They also refused to keep garza and liriano around as well, two guys with actual good "stuff" at the time. Instead they settle for pitch to contact guys left and right.

[spinowner]

 

The Twins also refused to retain Santana.

From what I understand the opposite is true: Santana refused to be retained by the Twins. It goes back to what I said before--free agents choose the team, not the other way around. There were many media reports at that time that Santana wanted to play for a major market team. He forced the Twins to trade him because if they didn't they'd have received even less compensation than they did in the trade.

[DaveW]

From what I understand the opposite is true: Santana refused to be retained by the Twins. It goes back to what I said before--free agents choose the team, not the other way around. There were many media reports at that time that Santana wanted to play for a major market team. He forced the Twins to trade him because if they didn't they'd have received even less compensation than they did in the trade.

That's not how it went down, Santana and his agents wanted an offer from the Twins before he was just a year away from FA (like a lot of elite pitchers) the Twins never made him a serious offer so he demanded a trade.

 

He and his agent had every reason in the world to be pissed at the Twins at that point.

[USAFChief]

 

From what I understand the opposite is true: Santana refused to be retained by the Twins. It goes back to what I said before--free agents choose the team, not the other way around. There were many media reports at that time that Santana wanted to play for a major market team. He forced the Twins to trade him because if they didn't they'd have received even less compensation than they did in the trade.

Off topic, but the Twins were not "forced" to trade Santana. 

 

If they couldn't sign him, it was proper to offer him in trade, but if they couldn't get a deal better than they got, the proper thing to do would have been to keep him for one more year on a competitive team, put another 230 innings on his arm, let him leave as a free agent, and take the two draft picks they would have received in those days.  

 

It's not second guessing, either...lots of us said so at the time.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moderator note, let's keep this to the topic(s) at hand here and stop the personal swipes.

[HitInAPinch]

So, what you're saying is money isn't the issue.  The selection of what the Twins are spending it on is.

Ok, true.  But here's the question:  If you are a very talented person, one that some would consider an Ace at what you do, would you go work for a company that has a very recent history of incredible failures?

 

That's the real life of pro-team sports.  You want to be a winner/successful?  Go to work for a successful organization.

[bird]

 

So, what you're saying is money isn't the issue.  The selection of what the Twins are spending it on is.

Ok, true.  But here's the question:  If you are a very talented person, one that some would consider an Ace at what you do, would you go work for a company that has a very recent history of incredible failures?

 

That's the real life of pro-team sports.  You want to be a winner/successful?  Go to work for a successful organization.

 

I'd like to see a response to this, an example that refutes this.

 

I'd also like to hear why timing should be ignored as a factor in signing fewer, more elite free agents. And an acknowledgement that injury risks and contract lengths should be a factor.

 

Under the premise of this thread, would the argument call for passing on Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana in favor of a single Top 30 pitcher? What would our season look like if that pitcher was Darvish?

 

Signing Kazmir instead of Santana? Sure. Calling the Nolasco contract a bad decision? Within our rights. Disagreeing with the Hughes extension? Why not? Hating the Santana signing? Understandable. People can and have made good points in discussing these, even if some were only doing so in hindsight.

 

But arguing that it would have been better two years ago, or even last off-seaon, to spend $35 million on some phantom ace (Price?) and retrospectively a productive second guy (Lewis?) I'm not buying it, even IF I could take the misguided leap and assume an ace would have signed here a year or two ago.

 

This coming off-season might be different because of the timing, and who knows, maybe the Twins will begin to look like an attractive place to pitch. And we won't be dealing with hindsight.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'd like to see a response to this, an example that refutes this.

 

I'd also like to hear why timing should be ignored as a factor in signing fewer, more elite free agents. And an acknowledgement that injury risks and contract lengths should be a factor.

 

Under the premise of this thread, would the argument call for passing on Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana in favor of a single Top 30 pitcher? What would our season look like if that pitcher was Darvish?

 

Signing Kazmir instead of Santana? Sure. Calling the Nolasco contract a bad decision? Within our rights. Disagreeing with the Hughes extension? Why not? Hating the Santana signing? Understandable. People can and have made good points in discussing these, even if some were only doing so in hindsight.

 

But arguing that it would have been better two years ago, or even last off-seaon, to spend $35 million on some phantom ace (Price?) and retrospectively a productive second guy (Lewis?) I'm not buying it, even IF I could take the misguided leap and assume an ace would have signed here a year or two ago.

 

This coming off-season might be different because of the timing, and who knows, maybe the Twins will begin to look like an attractive place to pitch. And we won't be dealing with hindsight.

 

In the history of professional sports  [ok,ok, I'm not THAT old] I can only think of 1 player that was truly a superstar that signed with a pretty poor team:  Reggie White signing a free agent contract with the Packers.  But Reggie was a pretty special guy.  Besides being a terror on the field, he was also a minister. 

 

I'm not saying that it's completely impossible for the Twins to sign an Ace pitcher.  All they gotta do is find a guy like the late great Reggie White.

[Major League Ready]

 

In the history of professional sports  [ok,ok, I'm not THAT old] I can only think of 1 player that was truly a superstar that signed with a pretty poor team:  Reggie White signing a free agent contract with the Packers.  But Reggie was a pretty special guy.  Besides being a terror on the field, he was also a minister. 

 

I'm not saying that it's completely impossible for the Twins to sign an Ace pitcher.  All they gotta do is find a guy like the late great Reggie White.

 

 

In the history of professional sports  [ok,ok, I'm not THAT old] I can only think of 1 player that was truly a superstar that signed with a pretty poor team:  Reggie White signing a free agent contract with the Packers.  But Reggie was a pretty special guy.  Besides being a terror on the field, he was also a minister. 

 

I'm not saying that it's completely impossible for the Twins to sign an Ace pitcher.  All they gotta do is find a guy like the late great Reggie White.

This is why I asked for examples.  If Dave or anyone else can provide a reasonable number of valid examples of other teams with equal or less revenue than the Twins are getting this done, his criticism of the FO and Terry Ryan is valid.   I don’t believe that it has been done with anything close to the frequency that would suggest that it is easy.  As a matter of fact, if it has not been done, it would be reasonable to conclude that GMs feel it is financially imprudent for mid or small market teams to sign these players or they simply opt for bigger markets and the endorsement potential / fame associated with those markets.

 

Since Dave is unwilling to support his point.  I am going to look up the FA signings for the last 10 years.  I would like to know if the front office is in fact incompetent as Dave suggests or is the disconnect with those who blame the FO for everything a product of their own lack of understanding.

[d-mac]

 

So Santana is at best a number 3??? His last 4 starts including tonight he has gone 29 innings and only giving up 4 runs.  That looks pretty good to me.  He's definitely not an ace but he's better than a number 3.  Two years ago who Ryan signed Hughes and Nolasco the Twins were in the middle of their 2nd and 3rd straight 90+ losing seasons.  What "ace" in their right mind would want to come to the Twins and play when they have multiple options and can pick a good team???

 

Santana's entire career he's been incredibly inconsistent. Look at his ERA and xFIP numbers from year to year. He's never been anything more than a good number 3 when one. I never understood what people expected when we signed him. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

Think Barry Zito (SFG), Johan Santana (NYM), Mike Hampton (CR), etc.

 

Big splash #1 ace signings that fans go crazy for don't always work out. In fact, they most often don't. What then? You as a fan get pissed off at the GM for his foolish spending. It's hard to win in this GM free agent freaking game.

 

See this article from US Today published earlier this year: "Massive contracts for starting pitchers almost never work out."

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/01/max-scherzer-james-shields-free-agent-pitchers-contracts-100-million-mlb

[Major League Ready]

 

 

 

The FA signings for SPs is listed below.  Here is what I believe we can conclude with the facts in hand.

 

1. There are very few Sps of this caliber available.  Therefore, the premise that it is easy is not accurate.
2. It is either very difficult for a team outside the top 10 in revenue to sign this type of FA or the GMs feel it is not prudent.
3. Only a handful of different teams have had any success in landing these FAs.
4. Don’t see the Cardinals involved in any contract of this type in the last 10 years.
5. When fans don’t understand they blame the GM or FO.

 

2015
Sherzer ………. Nationals
Lester ………… Cubs   Does Lester qualify as an ace?  He was very good in 2014 but 2012-2013 he rated 29th in WAR.
Shields ………. Padres  Is Shields an ace.  Shields got 4/74 and Santana was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2015. 

 

2014
Tanaka ………. Yankees
Garza was the 2nd highest paid SP in 2014.  $1M more than Nolasco and $2M more than Jimenez.  Pretty hard to fault what they did in 2014 when you actually look at the facts.

 

2013
Grienke …….. Dodgers
Sanchez ……. Tigers (resigned with current team so no pertinent to this discussion)  I also don’t know that he would have been considered an ace at the time of the signing.  E
Edwin Jackson was the next highest paid FA pitcher in 2013

 

2012
CJ Wilson …….  Angels      5/77M
Darvish ……….  Rangers    6/60M   Buehrle ………  Marlins     4/58M   

There was obviously some uncertainty about Darvish in the market

I would not think anyone considered Buehrle an ace, especially at 36 forward.

 

2011
Cliff Lee ……..  Rangers    5/120M
The next highest paid SP in 2011 was actually a relief pitcher (Soriano (35M)

 

2010
Lackey ……..  Angels    5/82.5
Randy Wolfe was the next highest paid SP at 29.75M

 

2009
Sabathia …….  Yankees
Burnett ……....  Yankees

 

2008
Pettite ………  Yankees   1yr 16M.  The highest paid SP was actually Silva’s deal with the Mariners @ 4/48M

 

2007
Zito …………..  Giants    7/126
Matsuzaka .....  Boston   6/52

 

 

 

[arkyvaughan]

Your point? Blackburn and Nolasco both started opening day for the Twins, would anyone sane (heh) call them an ace?

[DaveW]

This is why I asked for examples. If Dave or anyone else can provide a reasonable number of valid examples of other teams with equal or less revenue than the Twins are getting this done, his criticism of the FO and Terry Ryan is valid. I don’t believe that it has been done with anything close to the frequency that would suggest that it is easy. As a matter of fact, if it has not been done, it would be reasonable to conclude that GMs feel it is financially imprudent for mid or small market teams to sign these players or they simply opt for bigger markets and the endorsement potential / fame associated with those markets.

 

Since Dave is unwilling to support his point. I am going to look up the FA signings for the last 10 years. I would like to know if the front office is in fact incompetent as Dave suggests or is the disconnect with those who blame the FO for everything a product of their own lack of understanding.

I have given you examples: Mariners, Rangers, Padres etc

 

All have similar markets and payrolls. Detroit is an interesting one as well since they are in the division.

[DaveW]

Think Barry Zito (SFG), Johan Santana (NYM), Mike Hampton (CR), etc.

 

Big splash #1 ace signings that fans go crazy for don't always work out. In fact, they most often don't. What then? You as a fan get pissed off at the GM for his foolish spending. It's hard to win in this GM free agent freaking game.

 

See this article from US Today published earlier this year: "Massive contracts for starting pitchers almost never work out."

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/01/max-scherzer-james-shields-free-agent-pitchers-contracts-100-million-mlb

We have 17 years worth of data on this current front office and how they find/spend on picking. The results aren't pretty (one playoff series win total) so suggesting that maybe a new approach isn't such a crazy idea?

[DaveW]

Santana's entire career he's been incredibly inconsistent. Look at his ERA and xFIP numbers from year to year. He's never been anything more than a good number 3 when one. I never understood what people expected when we signed him.

yup

[Major League Ready]

 

I have given you examples: Mariners, Rangers, Padres etc

All have similar markets and payrolls. Detroit is an interesting one as well since they are in the division.

No.  You have not given examples.  An example would include specific free agent signings of "Ace" SPs signed by clubs with equal or less payroll than the twins.  You have simply restated your original assertion. 

 

I provided the list of free agent signings in the past 10 years.  If it were easy, there would be several similar signings.  I don't honestly think there is a single one that qualifies.  

 

Which specific contracts do you believe supports your case?  Frankly, it looks like you will maintain this position regardless of how overwhelming the facts.