What to do with Kepler?

[stringer bell]

I do hope the Twins let Kepler get some time this September, just to get his feet wet and also reward a really awesome season for him at AA. Beyond that, I think he starts spring training penciled for AAA, but given a shot to make the team. He would be behind the trio of Buxton, Hicks, and Rosario, as well as Arcia who would be out of options. The chances for at least one of the four to either be injured or fall off dramatically are (unfortunately) pretty high.

 

Kepler should get his chance sometime next year and I think he will do very well.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Can he play one of the following positions which are the glaring holes the Twins have?

1. Shortstop

2. Catcher

3. First Base

Those are the 3 biggest holes that need to be filled.

Best funny I have read on here in quite some time.

[Major League Ready]

 

Has anyone noticed the Twins record against RHSPs and the team OPS and SLG against RHPs?    LH power is a huge issue with this team.  Really not sure how much power Kepler will develop.  At this point, he is having a breakthrough season, but it is doubles power with only 8 HRs.   He could develop power.   I think that the Twins should flip a coin between him and Arcia and keep one and trade the other.  Kepler has the higher value right now of the 2, so he likely should be the one who goes.

It is a LONG way from a coin toss for me.  One guy has the best hitting stats in the southern league and is a superior athlete with excellent plate discipline and a very high OBP.    The other is batting 200 at AAA with below average defensive skill.  He strikes out a ton and looks to be a head case. How is this a coin flip.

 

Kepler could be the #3 hitter we lack.  If not he would make a great 2 hole hitter and Dozier hits 3rd or if Mauer  bounces back, we have Buxton, Mauer, and Kepler with Dozier or perhaps Vargas protecting Sano.  If Vargas reached his potential, by the end of 2016 we have ...

 

CF ... Buxton  or Buxton

LF .... Kepler

2B .... Dozier

3B .... Sano

DH ... Vargas

RF ... Rosario

1B ... Mauer

C ..... Trade or FA acquisition

SS ... Trade or FA acquisition

 

W e trade Plouffe and Hicks for a catcher, SS and/or pitching.  If Polanco pans out in 2016 we could potentially keep Hicks but if he continues to play at this current level or improve he is going to be more valuable as a trade asset that would return a great C or SS or perhaps the front of the rotation SP we need to be a serious post season contender.  It will take most or al of 2016 for this to play out.  Of course, we don't trade Hicks and/or Plouffe without getting considerable upgrades at SS and catcher which makes this a very strong lineup with excellent defensive capability.  If Mauer bounces back a bit, all the better.  If he gets worse, he is a bench player. 

[nytwinsfan]

Has anyone noticed the Twins record against RHSPs and the team OPS and SLG against RHPs?    LH power is a huge issue with this team.  Really not sure how much power Kepler will develop.  At this point, he is having a breakthrough season, but it is doubles power with only 8 HRs.   He could develop power.   I think that the Twins should flip a coin between him and Arcia and keep one and trade the other.  Kepler has the higher value right now of the 2, so he likely should be the one who goes.

Yeah, actually I posted a whole thread about it a couple of weeks ago. It has been this way for a while.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19507-twins-should-call-up-platoon-kepler-now/

 

Also, you do realize that 2 doubles is worth more than a HR and 3 triples is worth more than 2 HRs, right? Kepler has plenty of power. People just don't acknowledge it because it doesn't come completely in the form of HR.

[nytwinsfan]

It is a LONG way from a coin toss for me.  One guy has the best hitting stats in the southern league and is a superior athlete with excellent plate discipline and a very high OBP.    The other is batting 200 at AAA with below average defensive skill.  He strikes out a ton and looks to be a head case. How is this a coin flip.

 

Kepler could be the #3 hitter we lack.  If not he would make a great 2 hole hitter and Dozier hits 3rd or if Mauer  bounces back, we have Buxton, Mauer, and Kepler with Dozier or perhaps Vargas protecting Sano.  If Vargas reached his potential, by the end of 2016 we have ...

 

CF ... Buxton  or Buxton

LF .... Kepler

2B .... Dozier

3B .... Sano

DH ... Vargas

RF ... Rosario

1B ... Mauer

C ..... Trade or FA acquisition

SS ... Trade or FA acquisition

 

W e trade Plouffe and Hicks for a catcher, SS and/or pitching.  If Polanco pans out in 2016 we could potentially keep Hicks but if he continues to play at this current level or improve he is going to be more valuable as a trade asset that would return a great C or SS or perhaps the front of the rotation SP we need to be a serious post season contender.  It will take most or al of 2016 for this to play out.  Of course, we don't trade Hicks and/or Plouffe without getting considerable upgrades at SS and catcher which makes this a very strong lineup with excellent defensive capability.  If Mauer bounces back a bit, all the better.  If he gets worse, he is a bench player.

Yup, what he said.

[Badsmerf]

Why would Rosario be a lock while Hicks is bound to struggle in your opinion?

 

Hicks: .276/.327/.423 WRC+ 105

Rosario: .279/.301/.455 WRC+ 104

 

Now, from these stats they have been fairly similiar with Rosario showing more slugging and Hicks are higher OBP. What these stats don't show you is Rosario's BB% of 3.2% and K% of 23.6%, meanwhile Hicks BB% is 6.9 and K% is 15.8%.

 

While Hick's BB% is down considerably from last year, his K% is down almost 10%. Eddie needs to figure out how to cut down on that K% if he is virtually never going to walk. While their averages are the same, Rosario's is fueled by a .348 BABIP, which while not as high as Dan San's .405 last year, it is probably unsustainable.

 

Even with Hick's struggle against right handed batters, Rosario struggles against lefties are near identical.

 

Hicks vs RHP: .243/.293/.355 .639 OPS wRC+ 76

Rosario vs LHP: .241/.273/.367 .641 OPS wRC+ 73

 

If anything they would make a pretty insane platoon for each other.

Well, coincidently hicks has done drastically better lately bringing those numbers up. Anyway, I trust Rosario a little more than hicks at this point. I get that he doesn't walk much, so his value is in his hit tool. Luckily, he has always had a high babip.

 

On the other hand, if hicks doesn't falter.... The twins have a back up plan for Buxton and a young cf to trade. I imagine with a strong start to 2016 he would have more value than revere did, and maybe as much as span when he was traded.

 

I don't think a year between aaa and mlb would be blasphemous for Kepler. In fact, if the twins want to make a run the more talent they have in October the better. Either way, he still needs to play everyday.

[John Kelsey]

He's 3-3 with a HR tonight and his OPS now sits at 1.002. He has to be up in September.....right?

[amjgt]

Make that 4/5 with a BB

[Tuba]

 

 The outfield is deep, with Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all deserving of being everyday starters.  

 

Is that deep? I think it is actually the bare minimum. 

[TKGuy]

Hicks value has probably never been higher, so I would use him as the center of a package to get a SS or C. I believe the ship has sailed on Arcia. Another 3k performance tonight in an 6-0 win. He cannot play defense, so even if Hicks is traded, Kepler will probably be before him in my book

[jimmer]

 

About a month ago I made a post arguing that it was time for the Twins to promote Kepler to AAA (http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19339-time-to-promote-kepler/).  Clearly this hasn't happened.

 

I don't have Kepler's numbers since that date (too much work), but he's been brilliant in August: .333/.424/.630 (1054 OPS) with 9BB:10K in 54 AB's; his plate discipline has remained stellar, he's hitting for more power than any other month (.297 ISO is the highest of the season).  In 14 games, he has 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, and 3 SB, which amounts to these stats over 154 games: 66 2B, 22 3B, 22 HR, and 33 SB.  Basically, he's been stupid good in August.

 

At this point, however, the Twins have probably missed the boat promoting Kepler to AAA.  He would only be there for only 3 weeks, so expect him to stay in AA and try to bring a Southern League championship to Chattanooga.

 

But the real question is: what do the Twins do with Max Kepler next season?  The outfield is deep, with Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all deserving of being everyday starters.  Kepler has experience playing 1B, but that is a waste of his athleticism and is currently occupied by our $184 million man, Joe Mauer.  As a result, Kepler will most likely begin the season in AAA, but that is only a short-term solution to a long-term problem (or if we're looking at the glass half-full, this long-term opportunity). 

 

The handling of Max Kepler will be one of a number of difficult personnel choices the Twins must make this offseason, and is one I will be watching closely.

Kepler starts in AAA and is kept as insurance just in case Rosario or Hick falters (if either, more likely Rosario than Hicks).

[nytwinsfan]

Kepler is figured very heavily (2nd) in Fangraph's in-Season KOTAH update, actually above Buxton (3rd), both of whom have seen their stock skyrocket, at least under this projection system.  Pretty great.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-in-season-prospect-update/

[Cap'n Piranha]

Best possible Twins lineup next year (barring an f'ing a trade).

 

1--Buxton--CF

2--Hicks--RF

3--Kepler--DH/1B (Backup OF)

4--Sano--3B

5--Dozier--2B

6--Mauer--1B/DH

7--Rosario--LF

8--Suzuki--C

9--Escobar--SS

 

Speed and OBP at the top, Power in the middle, 1-7 should all be productive hitters.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Best possible Twins lineup next year (barring an f'ing a trade).

 

1--Buxton--CF

2--Hicks--RF

3--Kepler--DH/1B (Backup OF)

4--Sano--3B

5--Dozier--2B

6--Mauer--1B/DH

7--Rosario--LF

8--Suzuki--C

9--Escobar--SS

 

Speed and OBP at the top, Power in the middle, 1-7 should all be productive hitters.

I'd probably want Dozier 3rd, no? And if Plouffe is not there, hopefully that is because we've traded him for a better catcher, making Suzuki the backup.

[zenser]

Correct me if I am wrong, but he is on the 40 man and this year is his first option year, right?

[Mike Sixel]

Kepler is in the 40 man roster.

[70charger]

 

Kepler is in the 40 man roster.

 

And I think this is his second option year of four.

[twinssouth]

If they don't move Kepler, they must have made a deal with the Lookouts to keep a few of the better prospects for the playoff run. I don't know, just speculating.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I'd probably want Dozier 3rd, no? And if Plouffe is not there, hopefully that is because we've traded him for a better catcher, making Suzuki the backup.

 

I say no, because I want my 3 hitter to be patient, to give Hicks/Buxton a chance to steal bases.  Kepler also doesn't strike out that much, so you can do a lot more hit and run too.  Having Dozier behind Sano also provides a deterrent to pitching around Miguel.

 

I'd also be very happy to have someone else at catcher, but it might be more beneficial to use Plouffe to get bullpen help (depending on how much teams want for a catcher versus bullpen arms).

 

 

[Loosey]

 

I say no, because I want my 3 hitter to be patient, to give Hicks/Buxton a chance to steal bases.  Kepler also doesn't strike out that much, so you can do a lot more hit and run too.  Having Dozier behind Sano also provides a deterrent to pitching around Miguel.

 

I'd also be very happy to have someone else at catcher, but it might be more beneficial to use Plouffe to get bullpen help (depending on how much teams want for a catcher versus bullpen arms).

I like the pieces in the lineup.  I just don't see the Twins having a rookie bat 3rd.  Even if he is deserving.  And why are we even speculating that someone other that Joe Mauer is going to bat 3rd.  Even though he shouldn't, you damn well know exactly where he will be in the lineup.

 

I honestly think Sano would be a great 3 hitter.  If he continues with his patience I think he would be great there.

[SwainZag]

 

Best possible Twins lineup next year (barring an f'ing a trade).

 

1--Buxton--CF

2--Hicks--RF

3--Kepler--DH/1B (Backup OF)

4--Sano--3B

5--Dozier--2B

6--Mauer--1B/DH

7--Rosario--LF

8--Suzuki--C

9--Escobar--SS

 

Speed and OBP at the top, Power in the middle, 1-7 should all be productive hitters.

 

Can we at least see him compete against pitching better than AA ball before we pencil him into the 3 hole in the lineup?  I know he is raking in AA, but maybe we should temper expectations a little bit?  

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I like the pieces in the lineup.  I just don't see the Twins having a rookie bat 3rd.  Even if he is deserving.  And why are we even speculating that someone other that Joe Mauer is going to bat 3rd.  Even though he shouldn't, you damn well know exactly where he will be in the lineup.

 

I honestly think Sano would be a great 3 hitter.  If he continues with his patience I think he would be great there.

 

I don't think it will happen, it's just what I would like to see happen, perhaps not so much in 2016 as in 2017 and beyond.  What I think will happen is below.

 

1--Buxton--CF

2--Dozier--2B

3--Mauer--1B

4--Sano--DH

5--Plouffe--3B

6--Rosario--LF

7--Suzuki--C

8--Santana--SS

9--Hicks--RF

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Can we at least see him compete against pitching better than AA ball before we pencil him into the 3 hole in the lineup?  I know he is raking in AA, but maybe we should temper expectations a little bit?  

 

Miguel Sano got exactly 20 Plate Appearances above AA before we put him in the cleanup spot.  Kepler is only 4 months older than Miguel, and has put up superior numbers in AA.  I'm not saying Kepler will be better than Sano, I'm just saying it's not unrealistic to say he could be.

[SwainZag]

 

Miguel Sano got exactly 20 Plate Appearances above AA before we put him in the cleanup spot.  Kepler is only 4 months older than Miguel, and has put up superior numbers in AA.  I'm not saying Kepler will be better than Sano, I'm just saying it's not unrealistic to say he could be.

 

I understand that. Miguel Sano was a heralded Top prospect for years.  I just don't want everyone to be down when he comes up and isn't an immediate star in the big leagues. 

[stringer bell]

Looking again at Kepler's stats, this is well beyond mastery. It is domination. He is well ahead in all three legs of the saber triple crown--OBP, Slugging and OPS--and is close to leading all of AA in all three categories. I don't remember another Twins farmhand so dominant in the high minors. He has actually stepped up since Buxton and Sano left (Polanco also was gone for about a month).

 

The guy deserves promotion to the majors as a reward for this season. He has to be considered for regular play in 2016.

[nicksaviking]

 

Best possible Twins lineup next year (barring an f'ing a trade).

 

1--Buxton--CF

2--Hicks--RF

3--Kepler--DH/1B (Backup OF)

4--Sano--3B

5--Dozier--2B

6--Mauer--1B/DH

7--Rosario--LF

8--Suzuki--C

9--Escobar--SS

 

Speed and OBP at the top, Power in the middle, 1-7 should all be productive hitters.

 

What's wrong with an *ing trade?  Looks like Plouffe left in one.

 

If Plouffe goes, I'd really hope it was to improve upon those 8 and 9 hitters, he certainly has more value than getting bullpen help.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My 2 cents, someone will struggle next season (probably Rosario) and that makes for a good opportunity to swap them when the time comes.  It could also be that someone gets hurt at which point Kepler is the first guy up.  He's got two more options, so starting in AAA is where I think he goes, but I suspect he gets some time in MLB at some point.  If everyone's doing well, one of those guys gets traded for something of need...

 

On that note, If there was a well above average cost controlled catcher/SS on the market, I'd consider trading Kepler now.

[h2oface]

 

You do realize that you could pick the wrong prospect to trade and the one that you kept fails and you are stuck with no good plan B in AAA?

 

I thought someone was channeling Terry Ryan when I read this. I thinks this very internal dialogue is why he does nothing and signs mediocre pitchers and free agents. His fear of failing is stronger than his preceived reward to succeed by having the confidence in his choice and making the right decision. No decision instead of making the decision and trading the redundancy will they still have value.

 

You could also pick the right prospect, make the decision while the other prospect that is traded still has value, and get a comparable prospect back for the prospect you traded. Doing nothing or settling for replacement level is the worst, for me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think at the end of the day, given failure rates for prospects, you're better off letting as many a chance to succeed before you trade than to trade one for another prospect.  The OF situation as it is will likely be Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and Arcia, with one or two of these guys in AAA next season.  If they are all succeeding as they rotate in, this team is in a great place to trade one of them off for a kings ransom.  If we weed out the failures, the team is still successful.  If they sent a guy like Kepler away now, there's a lot more risk.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

What's wrong with an *ing trade?  Looks like Plouffe left in one.

 

If Plouffe goes, I'd really hope it was to improve upon those 8 and 9 hitters, he certainly has more value than getting bullpen help.

 

Nothing at all wrong with an *ing A trade, I'd love one if the return is right.  I'd be all for Plouffe, Polanco, Walker, and Meyer for Lucroy, I just don't think the Brewers would go for that.  I think it's more likely we could flip Plouffe for 1-2 relievers, and rely on a strong top 7, a middle of the road rotation, and a hopefully much improved bullpen to challenge for the division.

 

Plouffe is good, but not great, and since he turns 30 next year in what will be his last arbitration year (I believe), he's about to get expensive too, which limits his attractiveness.