What to do with Kepler?

[nicksaviking]

 

Nothing at all wrong with an *ing A trade, I'd love one if the return is right.  I'd be all for Plouffe, Polanco, Walker, and Meyer for Lucroy, I just don't think the Brewers would go for that.  I think it's more likely we could flip Plouffe for 1-2 relievers, and rely on a strong top 7, a middle of the road rotation, and a hopefully much improved bullpen to challenge for the division.

 

Plouffe is good, but not great, and since he turns 30 next year in what will be his last arbitration year (I believe), he's about to get expensive too, which limits his attractiveness.

 

But unless the Twins are trying to get an elite closer, three years of an above average 3B is going to be worth a lot more than a reliever.  Plouffe won't be a free agent until 2018. 

 

[nytwinsfan]

Nothing at all wrong with an *ing A trade, I'd love one if the return is right.  I'd be all for Plouffe, Polanco, Walker, and Meyer for Lucroy, I just don't think the Brewers would go for that.  I think it's more likely we could flip Plouffe for 1-2 relievers, and rely on a strong top 7, a middle of the road rotation, and a hopefully much improved bullpen to challenge for the division.

 

Plouffe is good, but not great, and since he turns 30 next year in what will be his last arbitration year (I believe), he's about to get expensive too, which limits his attractiveness.

Why would we want to trade all that for a 29 year old catcher in the middle of a historically down year with only two years of control left? No way.  Trade for a younger catcher with some upside, even if there is some risk they won't turn out, and even if we have to offer more. Old catchers terrify me to begin with and old recently injured catchers with declining stats make me **** my pants.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

But unless the Twins are trying to get an elite closer, three years of an above average 3B is going to be worth a lot more than a reliever.  Plouffe won't be a free agent until 2018. 

 

He has 2 years left before his first free agent year, but this is a classic "trade from a surplus area" trade.  Trading Plouffe lets you get playing time for Arcia or Kepler, so if you think Arcia/Kepler plus whatever you get back for Plouffe is better than Plouffe, you should do it.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Why would we want to trade all that for a 29 year old catcher in the middle of a historically down year with only two years of control left? No way.  Trade for a younger catcher with some upside, even if there is some risk they won't turn out, and even if we have to offer more. Old catchers terrify me to begin with and old recently injured catchers with declining stats make me **** my pants.

 

I would want that catcher because it's so much better than Kurt Suzuki.  Your point also is contradictory--if Lucroy is an old, recently-injured catcher with declining stats, why is having only 2 years of control left a bad thing?

 

Also, that's really not giving up that much, really just Polanco.  Arcia/Kepler + Lucroy is at least as good as, if not better than Plouffe + Suzuki.  Walker will probably never stick with the Twins, and maybe not any team, so why not using him at the height of his value.  And Meyer is the definition of a boom or bust prospect, but he's heavily leaning towards bust at this point.  The Brewers get a nice middle infield piece, a solid corner infielder, and two lottery tickets.

[nytwinsfan]

 

He has 2 years left before his first free agent year, but this is a classic "trade from a surplus area" trade.  Trading Plouffe lets you get playing time for Arcia or Kepler, so if you think Arcia/Kepler plus whatever you get back for Plouffe is better than Plouffe, you should do it.

Or Vargas, but yeah. Totally agree.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I would want that catcher because it's so much better than Kurt Suzuki.  Your point also is contradictory--if Lucroy is an old, recently-injured catcher with declining stats, why is having only 2 years of control left a bad thing?

 

Also, that's really not giving up that much, really just Polanco.  Arcia/Kepler + Lucroy is at least as good as, if not better than Plouffe + Suzuki.  Walker will probably never stick with the Twins, and maybe not any team, so why not using him at the height of his value.  And Meyer is the definition of a boom or bust prospect, but he's heavily leaning towards bust at this point.  The Brewers get a nice middle infield piece, a solid corner infielder, and two lottery tickets.

It isn't contradictory. With Lucroy's relatively reasonable price of $4-5 million a year, I'd rather have the following things in the following order:

(1) a 28 year old catcher with 3 years of control left.

(2) a 29 year old catcher with 3 years of control left.

(3) a 28 year old catcher with 2 years of control left.

(4) a 29 year old catcher with 2 years of control left.

 

I think most would agree, although maybe switch 2 and 3. I'm not too worried about paying Lucroy's salary. It is a down-side, but it is nothing compared to the opportunity cost lost by giving up those pieces.

 

Polanco is not a sack of potatoes. You are giving up the pieces you could use to get a younger catcher who you will have for even cheaper and for longer. Yeah, there is always risk with prospects, but there is also a lot of risk with a 29-yo catcher who just came off a career down-year.

 

[nicksaviking]

He has 2 years left before his first free agent year, but this is a classic "trade from a surplus area" trade.  Trading Plouffe lets you get playing time for Arcia or Kepler, so if you think Arcia/Kepler plus whatever you get back for Plouffe is better than Plouffe, you should do it.

I'm all for trading Plouffe this winter. Just not for a reliever.

[DocBauer]

I believe Kepler will hit for more HR power over time. His LH bat would undoubtedly be a welcome addition to the lineup.

 

I, for one, don't really see a logjam with Kepler joining Rosario, Buxton and Hicks in the OF, with Sano and Mauer at 3rd and 1st respectively, even if the Twins end up not trading Plouffe. First, who ever your two catcher are, that's what they do, they catch. Dozier, your SS winner and utility (or prime utility) cover the middle inf. You still have 7 guys to rotate in and around the OF, 1B, 3B and DH consisting of 6 spots in the batting order. Baseball math, with days off, matchups, occasional mid-game replacement, and occasional injuries, would tell you that 7 guys in to 6 lineup spots consists of pretty easy equations.

 

And again, I'm not 100% convinced Plouffe HAS to be included in a trade to get a catcher. I believe Arcia still holds at least some value. Put yourself behind the GM desk of another team and think about acquiring the enigmatic but talented youngster and how intriguing he might be. Then there is Polanco. And there are options, including some nice young arms, (not Berrios).

[jimbo92107]

 

I don't think it will happen, it's just what I would like to see happen, perhaps not so much in 2016 as in 2017 and beyond.  What I think will happen is below.

 

1--Buxton--CF

2--Dozier--2B

3--Mauer--1B

4--Sano--DH

5--Plouffe--3B

6--Rosario--LF

7--Suzuki--C

8--Santana--SS

9--Hicks--RF

Close, but I'm betting that Kepler's bat will get him more at-bats than Mauer next season, and Polanco's bat will win out over Santana's. I'll add one fantasy pick to take over the starting catcher duties:

 

1--Buxton--CF

2--Dozier--2B

3--Kepler--1B

4--Sano--DH

5--Plouffe--3B

6--Rosario--LF

7--Turner--C

8--Polanco--SS

9--Hicks--RF

 

Suzuki can be a really good backup catcher on my 2016 Twins. I'd also make room for Vargas to get back into the mix. Mauer and Hunter may still be around for platooning and mentoring, but not so much playing time. 2016 should be really, really fun to watch.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

It isn't contradictory. With Lucroy's relatively reasonable price of $4-5 million a year, I'd rather have the following things in the following order:

(1) a 28 year old catcher with 3 years of control left.

(2) a 29 year old catcher with 3 years of control left.

(3) a 28 year old catcher with 2 years of control left.

(4) a 29 year old catcher with 2 years of control left.

 

I think most would agree, although maybe switch 2 and 3. I'm not too worried about paying Lucroy's salary. It is a down-side, but it is nothing compared to the opportunity cost lost by giving up those pieces.

 

Polanco is not a sack of potatoes. You are giving up the pieces you could use to get a younger catcher who you will have for even cheaper and for longer. Yeah, there is always risk with prospects, but there is also a lot of risk with a 29-yo catcher who just came off a career down-year.

 

Sure, more team control is good, but right now the priority should be to do something to not have to start Suzuki.  I'd rather have Lucroy for the next two years at 9.2M than Suzuki + who knows at 6M and whatever.  The opportunity cost of the prospects is also not as big as you think it is.  Polanco is very good, but if we're getting Lucroy, we're going to have to give up something good.  He's also replaceable since you have Dozier and Escobar (with Vielma and Gordon 2 to 3 years away).  Finally, there's also a risk with a younger, less proven catcher, namely that they might not turn out to be very good.  At least Lucroy has a track record of 3 seasons of 3+ WAR to fall back on.

[Thrylos]

 

What's wrong with an *ing trade?  Looks like Plouffe left in one.

 

If Plouffe goes, I'd really hope it was to improve upon those 8 and 9 hitters, he certainly has more value than getting bullpen help.

 

Sure.  Pencil in Pinto and Polanco.  Done.  Those 2 are ahead of Kepler (and Buxton.)

[Thrylos]

 

7--Turner--C

 

Must be kidding

 

Talking about a guy who has regressed every season with the stick, and his AA numbers (this season - .606 OPS) are worse than Butera's career AA numbers (.611 OPS).   The guy should be a cut candidate, not a promotion candidate...

[nytwinsfan]

Sure.  Pencil in Pinto and Polanco.  Done.  Those 2 are ahead of Kepler (and Buxton.)

ahead of?????

[kab21]

 

I thought someone was channeling Terry Ryan when I read this. I thinks this very internal dialogue is why he does nothing and signs mediocre pitchers and free agents. His fear of failing is stronger than his preceived reward to succeed by having the confidence in his choice and making the right decision. No decision instead of making the decision and trading the redundancy will they still have value.

 

You could also pick the right prospect, make the decision while the other prospect that is traded still has value, and get a comparable prospect back for the prospect you traded. Doing nothing or settling for replacement level is the worst, for me.

 

Of course you can also win trading prospects.  I like the idea of trading prospects for proven players but everything I read in this thread is more of the 1st situation below.

 

1)  We have a surplus of OF'ers (which could easily not be true in a year) and we need to trade one for the best (young) player that we can this winter.  This is a way to almost guarantee that you get the short end of the stick.

 

2)  This is how you approach trades.  Pick the 3-4 guys that you want and don't include Kepler, Plouffe, Hicks, Rosario, Polanco and anyone else as untouchable for your trade targets.  Let the dialogue progress from there.

 

 

[jimbo92107]

 

Must be kidding

 

Talking about a guy who has regressed every season with the stick, and his AA numbers (this season - .606 OPS) are worse than Butera's career AA numbers (.611 OPS).   The guy should be a cut candidate, not a promotion candidate...

I'm basing my evaluation on one swing of the bat I watched, where Turner hit a home run. It wasn't a very good swing, almost no legs, yet the ball went over the fence anyway, mostly because Turner has very strong arms.

 

Like the problem Aaron Hicks is finally solving, Stuart Turner does not do a good job transferring power from his lower half to his upper half. Unlike Hicks was doing, Turner is not doing the "French Mistake" where he pushes his butt away from the plate. Turner simply needs to cock his bat farther and turn his lead hip more. Right now he's trying to be a contact hitter, not realizing that he be a better hitter all around if he'd prepare to hit the ball harder.

 

One possible key to getting better offensive production from Turner is Tom Brunanski, who will know what to tell Turner...not that others haven't told him already. Meanwhile, Turner is hands down the best defensive prospect within range of the major league club.

 

Of course he could flop completely, but I'd still like to see Turner have a September call-up. When was the last time opposing teams were hesitant to steal bases on a Twins catcher?

[launchingthrees]

This is an exciting time to be a twins fan. We have 5 legitimate options in the OF next year. I don't think it's hyperbole to call it an embarrassment of riches. Do they want to have an elite range/uzr/fielding group(Rosario,Buxton,Hicks)? Do we want to throw arcia in there as a platoon hitter? Should Kepler get some burn in AAA for service time reason? These are fun questions to ask and answer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But unless the Twins are trying to get an elite closer, three years of an above average 3B is going to be worth a lot more than a reliever. Plouffe won't be a free agent until 2018.

2018 meaning after 2017. Plouffe has 2 seasons left until FA.