What to do with Kepler?

[Boone]

About a month ago I made a post arguing that it was time for the Twins to promote Kepler to AAA (http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19339-time-to-promote-kepler/).  Clearly this hasn't happened.

 

I don't have Kepler's numbers since that date (too much work), but he's been brilliant in August: .333/.424/.630 (1054 OPS) with 9BB:10K in 54 AB's; his plate discipline has remained stellar, he's hitting for more power than any other month (.297 ISO is the highest of the season).  In 14 games, he has 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, and 3 SB, which amounts to these stats over 154 games: 66 2B, 22 3B, 22 HR, and 33 SB.  Basically, he's been stupid good in August.

 

At this point, however, the Twins have probably missed the boat promoting Kepler to AAA.  He would only be there for only 3 weeks, so expect him to stay in AA and try to bring a Southern League championship to Chattanooga.

 

But the real question is: what do the Twins do with Max Kepler next season?  The outfield is deep, with Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all deserving of being everyday starters.  Kepler has experience playing 1B, but that is a waste of his athleticism and is currently occupied by our $184 million man, Joe Mauer.  As a result, Kepler will most likely begin the season in AAA, but that is only a short-term solution to a long-term problem (or if we're looking at the glass half-full, this long-term opportunity). 

 

The handling of Max Kepler will be one of a number of difficult personnel choices the Twins must make this offseason, and is one I will be watching closely.

[Badsmerf]

I'm guessing he starts in AAA next season and forces his way up when Hicks has a sub-700 OPS by mid-May. At this point, Buxton and Rosario are pretty much locks and Hicks has played well enough to earn a starting spot for 2016. I don't think Hicks will be able to hold on to it though.

[Shane Wahl]

Let's see how the Twins do with a legitimate roster for a change. Kepler/Rosario and Buxton/Hicks does make for some lefty/right situational stuff. If Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, Mauer, and the DH all played 9/10 of the games, that would get Kepler to half-time starting. The could be DL stints for some one or more of those five, and maybe Molitor actually uses his bench next year (especially if they can't dump Suzuki for pocket lint in the offseason).

[Major League Ready]

This will play out next year.  Buxton will be up and if Kepler comes up and plays well, Hicks will be traded.  His value as a CFer is higher than as a corner OFer. 

[Blackjack]

You can also throw Arcia and Vargas into this discussion because they'll also be competing for playing time in the outfield, first base, and DH.  Come spring training, Arcia will get the most slack because hes out of options. Kepler could force his way onto the roster if the keeps hitting but my guess is that he ends up in AAA. And Vargas will really have to rake to get out of AAA before next summer.

 

Its a good problem to have.

 

Hopefully Terry Ryan trades the right one. Which brings up the question, when is it best to trade a prospect?? If you wait too long and they fail (Arcia) you get a bag of balls for them. Do you trade Hicks now that he looks to be on the rise? Or do you wait until he has another good year and then trade him?? You hate to trade off a prospect like Kepler and see him develop into a star but on the other hand it takes a quality player to bring back a quality player. Its a crap shoot.

[dbminn]

Depth is a key to a winning season. I have no problem with four players competing for three OF spots. Someone will get injured or may have an extended slump.

 

I also wouldn't mind if one OF is included in a trade package for a young catcher. Hicks and Rosario probably have a higher trade value than Kepler since they have proven they can play in the show. 

 

 

[kab21]

You do realize that you could pick the wrong prospect to trade and the one that you kept fails and you are stuck with no good plan B in AAA?

 

I have never seen how there is a problem with the OF in 2016.  You start out the season with Hicks, Buxton and Rosario as the likely starters.  Hopefully they keep Arcia as a 4th OF'er and possibly a platoon with Hicks.  Hicks hits .841 OPS against LHP.  Arcia hits .779 OPS against RHP.  This might be the resolution for these two.

 

Kepler remains in AAA as plan B in case any injuries happen or a prospect fails.  It is very likely that 3 unproven starters make it through next season healthy and meeting expectations.  He can also be a trade chip for a piece of critical need but you don't put him on the block and make a trade because of supposed depth.

[puckstopper1]

Der Wunder Kid is potentially another who will be blocked by Mauer.  All the talk above about DH at bats is moot UNLESS the Twins move Plouffe and let Sano take over at 3B.

[goulik]

I do not think bringing Kepler up this season was a concern or thought at all. We have enough young guys on the MLB roster and being in contention, we didn't need another. Moving him to AAA might have been a good option and based on seasons past, it could still happen but not a big issue in my book.

Next year, there is no need to rush him as we will have Buxton ironing out the kinks with Hicks, Rosario, and Arcia (who's ironing things out himself) We have no guarantees. Any of them could look like major leaguers next year or they could all rake...we don't really know. Rosario may have a sophomore slump, Buxton might hit 110 the first couple months, Arcia may be this years version of Arcia and Hicks may regress or they may be the best OF in MLB.

Kepler only adds to those questions. Just because he's doing well at AA does not mean he'll be ready any time next year (see Hicks) and he has been a slow developer his whole MiLB career. I'm not concerned at all that he stayed in AA.

[nytwinsfan]

Yeah, a potential logjam is a good problem to have, but Terry Ryan needs to make some careful decisions this offseason that may determine whether the next 6 years will be great or just good. The best argument for calling up Kepler in September In My Opinion is so that Ryan can get a look at how he handles and responds to big league pitching before the offseason, so that his performance can inform off-season trades (do we trade Plouffe and/or one of Rosario/Hicks/Kepler, and/or Arcia and/or Vargas). Obviously one month of MLB is really not an ideal basis on which to evaluate a player, but given that some offseason trades are likely to happen either way, one month of watching Kepler at the major league level is better than nothing. He is the only one potentially on the trading block for the OF/DH/1B/3B logjam that has not seen big league pitching. 

[HitInAPinch]

I'm not wringing my hands over any of this.  It'll all get sorted out during the September auditions and 2016 Spring Training.

[Ncgo4]

I'm plenty hand wringing for both of us. To assume that Twin's mgmt will make the best choices is a stretch of faith.

 

This is the management that got rid of Revere (I think it was) & others to make way for Hicks on the basis almost solely of a strong spring training. Do I think it's possible this team could overreact I the opposite direction? Sure, but I'm not predicting they will.

 

The more ML info they can get before making trades is critical. I would like both Buxton and Kepler called up as soon as possible. Give TR and his people as fully loaded a data base as possible. I think we know what to expect from Hunter and Robinson.

 

These decision are critical and they're difficult.

[wagwan]

Kepler is destroying the Southern League. The Twins have not had a prospect dominate in a level this high since Joe Mauer. He leads in avg., slugging, OBP and OPS. By significant margins too. He should not be last in the list of potential starters next year. His numbers at AA are better than all of the others. Even higher than Buxton at Cedar Rapids. Kepler needs to be on the roster next year.

[Shane Wahl]

I certainly wouldn't trade any of these guys (two of Arcia, Vargas, and Pinto, yes, but not these OFs). I have a thing for 20/20 threats, though (and I know SBs are overrated, but I just mean the overall speed associated with that).

 

Find some way to get a damn catcher. Get Hughes to 2014 or in between 2014 and 2015 performance, hope that Ervin is good next year, and roll out with the youth movement in full in 2016. If neither Polanco nor Santana really can stick at SS, find some way to get a damn shortstop.

 

I still marvel at how this entire bullpen situation has unraveled, but we'll see. Don't trade squat for bullpen pieces.

[Shane Wahl]

 

 

Kepler is destroying the Southern League. The Twins have not had a prospect dominate in a level this high since Joe Mauer. He leads in avg., slugging, OBP and OPS. By significant margins too. He should not be last in the list of potential starters next year. His numbers at AA are better than all of the others. Even higher than Buxton at Cedar Rapids. Kepler needs to be on the roster next year.

 

Yeah. My scenario placing him as the 1/2+ time player could be said of Hicks or Rosario too.

[jimbo92107]

Having three young studs that can play all three outfield positions (Rosario, Hicks, Kepler), plus a budding superstar CF in Buxton is a great situation for the Twins in 2016. Nothing wrong with platooning four guys depending on the situation, with one of them always available for PH, DH, PR, or just throwing sunflower seeds at whoever's being interviewed.

 

I do agree that Arcia is a big question mark. If he fully recovers from his bad hip by next year, then he's back to being a legitimate power hitting lefty to protect Sano. Otherwise it will have to be Kennys Vargas. You can't keep batting Plouffe 5th against righties, though he's done all right this season. The other option to protect Sano against LHP's could be Rosario, frankly.

 

Gotta think very carefully (and then say NO) before trading any of these guys, including Arcia, given how rare are Twins power hitting prospects, especially lefty ones. No way do I trade Kepler. Der Kid is destroying AA, and he has gotten better every year, including his power numbers. With his speed, average and gap power, he might be a very good lead-off hitter. If he develops more homer power, maybe it'll be Kepler protecting Sano.

 

I can see stashing Kepler in AAA next season as a plan B if Arcia doesn't work out, but otherwise you have to ask whether you're getting more value with a guy like Robinson as your 4th OF or if Kepler provides more. Robinson is a skilled all-around ballplayer, but Kepler could be a star pretty quickly. My guess is the Twins will go with the youth movement, but possibly keep Hunter around as mentor for one more season.

[Loosey]

Once again it seems that the Twins lose flexibility due to having to play #7.  Without Mauer they open up so many options.  Kepler can play 1st Base while the OF of Rosario, Buxton, Hicks rolls along.  Plouffe can play 3rd with Sano DHing, or switching them around with and adding in flexibility of Plouffe at 1st Sano at 3rd Kepler DH, or in OF while one of the other outfielders gets a day to DH.  So many options to be had if Mauer weren't there causing a jam.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I certainly wouldn't trade any of these guys (two of Arcia, Vargas, and Pinto, yes, but not these OFs). I have a thing for 20/20 threats, though (and I know SBs are overrated, but I just mean the overall speed associated with that).

 

Find some way to get a damn catcher. Get Hughes to 2014 or in between 2014 and 2015 performance, hope that Ervin is good next year, and roll out with the youth movement in full in 2016. If neither Polanco nor Santana really can stick at SS, find some way to get a damn shortstop.

 

I still marvel at how this entire bullpen situation has unraveled, but we'll see. Don't trade squat for bullpen pieces.

Agreed completely, although I think Escobar is adequate if no cost-controlled or reasonably obtainable better SS is available.

[birddog]

I think too much is made about progressing to AAA from AA. Sano has shown he is MLB ready and Rosario has a higher average with the big boys than in AAA (though with only 95 AB there).  I, too, agree Kepler probably starts next year in AAA until he is needed and/or to save service time; however, Twins fans will be cheated if we don't see Kepler in September as a semi-regular at both OF and 1B.

[Headfirst]

No matter how next year plays out it is great to have so many options.  Not just options but good options.  Love to hear a little positivity on TD.  Now with that in mind, Mr. Ryan don't let us down... 

[SwainZag]

 

I'm guessing he starts in AAA next season and forces his way up when Hicks has a sub-700 OPS by mid-May. At this point, Buxton and Rosario are pretty much locks and Hicks has played well enough to earn a starting spot for 2016. I don't think Hicks will be able to hold on to it though.

 

Why would Rosario be a lock while Hicks is bound to struggle in your opinion?

 

Hicks:       .276/.327/.423  WRC+ 105  

Rosario:   .279/.301/.455  WRC+ 104

 

Now, from these stats they have been fairly similiar with Rosario showing more slugging and Hicks are higher OBP.  What these stats don't show you is Rosario's BB% of 3.2% and K% of 23.6%, meanwhile Hicks BB% is 6.9 and K% is 15.8%.

 

While Hick's BB% is down considerably from last year, his K% is down almost 10%.  Eddie needs to figure out how to cut down on that K% if he is virtually never going to walk.  While their averages are the same, Rosario's is fueled by a .348 BABIP, which while not as high as Dan San's .405 last year, it is probably unsustainable.  

 

Even with Hick's struggle against right handed batters, Rosario struggles against lefties are near identical.  

 

Hicks vs RHP:    .243/.293/.355   .639 OPS  wRC+ 76

Rosario vs LHP:  .241/.273/.367   .641 OPS  wRC+ 73

 

If anything they would make a pretty insane platoon for each other.

[Ncgo4]

The predicament of existing contracts is a puzzle. We owe Mauer $20 + million per year for the next 3 (?) years. We are, in effect, paying him now for his earlier performance. He seems incapable of performing up to pennant winning standards for his position. The same can be said for several of our pitchers.

 

The question is what do do? There seems to be a consensus that we must play him. If we have Buxton, Hicks & Rosario in the outfield performing at stellar levels and Kepler opens in Rochester next year and a month into the season is hitting .320, what do we do? It's simple, we call him up and put Mauer deep down the bench. We pay him $23 million to watch baseball. The Twins will not be hurting for salary space and the team may just need to eat some large contracts.

 

The same is true, even more so, on the pitching staff. Should Berrios, Santana, Duffey & May turn out to be the strength of the bullpen next year we might have to release several highly compensated pitchers. Or trade them and pay partial salaries. It may be even worse if we finally figure out that 13 in the bullpen, and Robinson as you pinch hitter makes no sense at all.

 

We got into this situation trying to cobble together a lineup until our great minor leaguers were ready to step in. Now they are ready and we are finding out that our long term planning needed some work. TR doesn't have an easy task ahead of himself. Some of his decisions may just reflect unfavorably on his earlier decisions. Ain't easy being an MLB GM.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

About a month ago I made a post arguing that it was time for the Twins to promote Kepler to AAA (http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19339-time-to-promote-kepler/).  Clearly this hasn't happened.

 

I don't have Kepler's numbers since that date (too much work), but he's been brilliant in August: .333/.424/.630 (1054 OPS) with 9BB:10K in 54 AB's; his plate discipline has remained stellar, he's hitting for more power than any other month (.297 ISO is the highest of the season).  In 14 games, he has 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, and 3 SB, which amounts to these stats over 154 games: 66 2B, 22 3B, 22 HR, and 33 SB.  Basically, he's been stupid good in August.

 

At this point, however, the Twins have probably missed the boat promoting Kepler to AAA.  He would only be there for only 3 weeks, so expect him to stay in AA and try to bring a Southern League championship to Chattanooga.

 

But the real question is: what do the Twins do with Max Kepler next season?  The outfield is deep, with Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all deserving of being everyday starters.  Kepler has experience playing 1B, but that is a waste of his athleticism and is currently occupied by our $184 million man, Joe Mauer.  As a result, Kepler will most likely begin the season in AAA, but that is only a short-term solution to a long-term problem (or if we're looking at the glass half-full, this long-term opportunity). 

 

The handling of Max Kepler will be one of a number of difficult personnel choices the Twins must make this offseason, and is one I will be watching closely.

 

I am guessing the Twins will not want to waste 1B on another player that is more valuable at another position...and that lacks HR power. At least, I personally wouldn't. We have plenty of other plodders that should only be DH/1B.

[Ncgo4]

Regarding Rosario & Hicks. Both are hitting better from their "bad" side than Hunter is doing from both sides. This is why I fail to understand why Buxton isn't playing right now. Hunter could still be a great club house influence to the young players.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

This will play out next year.  Buxton will be up and if Kepler comes up and plays well, Hicks will be traded.  His value as a CFer is higher than as a corner OFer. 

Hicks will only be traded if he falters...and we are able to sell low.

[Ncgo4]

I am guessing the Twins will not want to waste 1B on another player that is more valuable at another position...and that lacks HR power. At least, I personally wouldn't. We have plenty of other plodders that should only be DH/1B.

Kepler doesn't lack power. He has only moderate HR power. He has demonstrated scary gap power, with a .552 slugging %. This compares to Mauer's .380 and Hunter's .420. Please, PLEASE, waste either of these positions on Kepler.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Kepler doesn't lack power. He has only moderate HR power. He has demonstrated scary gap power, with a .552 slugging %. This compares to Mauer's .380 and Hunter's .420. Please, PLEASE, waste either of these positions on Kepler.

I love me some Kepler, for footnote. I did not say that he lacked power, but only that he lacks HR power, which is CURRENTLY true. He had a brief HR streak recently, but not "valuable" 1B type of power. I want him in the OF, where he can produce Yelich, David Peralta, Zobrist, Gordon, and say Heyward type of batting profiles of decent avg/obp/iso/sb numbers. I say keep him down until the final super-2 deadline though. I think he will be the type of guy whose number will be better in his late twenties. 

 

My "DREAM" is to propose making the "Ultimate Barrier" into a super-utility Ben Zobrist or Kelly Johnson type of player, who could obviously play 1B and DH, but also focus on the corner OF spots, and also 3B, and possibly even 2B. This would just leave CF, SS, maybe 2B, and of course C that he would not help at. People might shout that he can't play those, but we don't KNOW that, and its not like he would be regulars at them. We might also find that he can play decent at one of these positions, which opens up more 1B/DH time.

 

I know he isn't as fast or athletic as he used to be, but there are some pretty pathetic 3B and LF/RF, and some bad 2B guys out there. This would play well with the fans because it make him look selfless and as someone who can help in multiple ways. Zobrist almost gets overrated due to this, though he is useful. He might even get on board with it as something fun...and as a learning process for latter managing;) 

 

Along with making Joe more valuable and fan friendly in the field, in the batting order place him lead off vs RHP's because he still has very solid OBP vs them, but hits way too many ground balls. He won't hit into as many double plays to start a game in this scenario. Vs LHP's he is devoid of power, but also rarely gets on base either, bat him 6th or later agains them, and sit him more and more slowly as well. He still would get several at bats due to batting leadoff vs RHP's, and his overall rate stats would look better since he would be getting much less at bats vs LHP's.

 

Again, this is MY dream, but I also fully believe this is a viable and reasonable solution to try in order to allow more at bats for our young guys, while not blocking any one type of position player. Yes, it won't happen, but I think it would be a nice answer and would be using the correct type of game theory of the assets we have.

 

Hey, if the guy is more likely to get hurt or need to sit more by playing these positions...I think we would not be decimated or too sad about this. I propose this because I like Joe, and it tears me up to see him fade like this. I think it would be a good look and help his image. Just my stupid thoughts.

[Thrylos]

Has anyone noticed the Twins record against RHSPs and the team OPS and SLG against RHPs?    LH power is a huge issue with this team.  Really not sure how much power Kepler will develop.  At this point, he is having a breakthrough season, but it is doubles power with only 8 HRs.   He could develop power.   I think that the Twins should flip a coin between him and Arcia and keep one and trade the other.  Kepler has the higher value right now of the 2, so he likely should be the one who goes.

[Mike Sixel]

Cut Mauer, play all five young guys in a rotation. Realistically? No idea what they still do.

[darin617]

Can he play one of the following positions which are the glaring holes the Twins have?

1. Shortstop

2. Catcher

3. First Base

Those are the 3 biggest holes that need to be filled.