So....uh...when..does...pelfrey finally get removed from the rotation?

[DaveW]

It's clear that any competent lineup is going to get to him by their second time through more often than not.

 

When does TR finally send Pelf to the pen(where he can succeed IMO) and either bring back May to the rotation or call up a berrios type?

 

At this point there is less than zero reason why Pelf should be in the rotation. If you can't protect a 6-0 lead for more than 3 innings, you really shouldn't be a starter at this point.

[DiscGolfer]

I think it's time to DFA Pelf, i really doubt he'll be any good in the pen and at what point in the game would you want to see him come in?  I'd only want to see him in a blowout situation and there are plenty of pitchers for that role already, and we've already seen what he does with big leads.  We won't even get a sack of baseballs in return for a trade at this point so just cut him loose and let some young guys get some experience.

 

Right now I think May is better in the pen, he's looking more like the best option for the 8th than anyone else.

[Shane Wahl]

It is time to just move on from Mike Pelfrey.

[TheLeviathan]

I want to believe this choice of Pelfrey over May (and the subsequent results) will teach this organization a lesson.

 

But I won't hold my breath on it.

[Old Twins Cap]

They had a chance to trade Pelfrey at the deadline and get something for him, low-level reliever likely, and they passed on it, so now he's just a sunk cost on a .500 ballclub who won't be around next year and blocks young starters on their way up.

 

It's definitely poor FO management but maybe a 6' 6" dude with a rugged expression and some New York swagger is worth something in the clubhouse. 

 

Or something.

[Linus]

I still think he might be an effective reliever. He frequently pitches well for a couple innings and the Twins can certainly use the help. No more Pelfrey starting for sure.

[Squirrel]

Yup, pen time for Pelf. Not holding my breath, but sheesh … something's gotta give and this seems like a logical first step … removes him from the rotation and potentially helps the pen. Of course, that means someone needs to go from the pen … hmmm … choices, choices.

[DaveW]

I think Pelf will be solid in the pen actually. The solution is extremely simple: swap May and Pelfrey.

[Thrylos]

Twins Rotation FIP, > 5 games started:

 

Nolasco: 2.79
May: 3.15
Pelfrey: 4.02
Gibson: 4.10
Hughes: 4.72
Milone: 4.82
Santana: 5.56

 

Removing Pelfrey will be following exactly the MO of the Twins FO: get rid of the best starters and let the rest pitch

[DaveW]

Twins Rotation FIP, > 5 games started:

 

Nolasco: 2.79

May: 3.15

Pelfrey: 4.02

Gibson: 4.10

Hughes: 4.72

Milone: 4.82

Santana: 5.56

 

Removing Pelfrey will be following exactly the MO of the Twins FO: get rid of the best starters and let the rest pitch

What's his FIP the last 10-12 games? Also this is just further truth that FIP is not an end all be all star or even close

[DaveW]

Last ten starts: 6.22 ERA

95 H+BB in 55 IP.

 

So either Pelf is not very good or is the unluckiest person in the history of luck.

[jimmer]

 

What's his FIP the last 10-12 games? Also this is just further truth that FIP is not an end all be all star or even close

There is no stat by itself that is end all be all or even close.  There are just some better than others.  In this case, if we're looking at how pitchers might perform going forward (i.e., who should stay in the rotation), xFIP might be best.  

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/xfip/

 

 

'Why xFIP:

While the value of moving from ERA to FIP is that it attempts to strip out defense, luck, and sequencing, moving from FIP to xFIP is useful because it tries to remove some of the randomness in the pitcher’s actual performance. Everything we do to calculate FIP is based on the idea that the pitcher is responsible for strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs while the defense is not. This makes FIP a better indicator of pitcher performance than ERA.'

 

'Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average home run to fly ball percentage (between 9 and 10% depending on the year).'

 

'In a very simple sense, FIP tells you how a pitcher has performed (value) independent of their defense, while xFIP tells you about how well he has pitched (ability, talent) independent of their defense.'-- That is why xFIP is a better predictive stat (cause pitchers are usually expected to pitch to ability and talent), while FIP is a better stat to say how a pitcher has performed.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, Boyer and Duensing are still on the roster. Robinson is still on the roster. Nunez is still on the roster. They have 9 RP.

 

Why would anyone have confidence at this point of the year that they Twins FO will make what most would think is the obvious choce at this point?

[jimbo92107]

 

I think it's time to DFA Pelf, i really doubt he'll be any good in the pen and at what point in the game would you want to see him come in?  I'd only want to see him in a blowout situation and there are plenty of pitchers for that role already, and we've already seen what he does with big leads.  We won't even get a sack of baseballs in return for a trade at this point so just cut him loose and let some young guys get some experience.

 

Right now I think May is better in the pen, he's looking more like the best option for the 8th than anyone else.

I've got a buddy that collects junk from the alley, then "stores" it in his back yard, which of course became a junk yard. Twins management is like my buddy. It's hard as hell to get them to let go of what most people would say is junk, but which they still think might have some value, someday.

 

Recently my buddy's landlord started complaining, and now I've helped him get most of the junk out of his yard. I try not to think about what's in his house...

 

Getting rid of Pelfrey is going to be like that. Management is too much like my buddy. They have a tough time letting go.

 

 

[nokomismod]

Not sure why all the hate for Pefrey here, but he obviously had a horrible start. His season has been decent though and his start before this one was excellent. If you want to trade him via waivers let him get another good start or two.

He was flat out better than May as a starter this year and he gave the Twins a better chance to contend for a wild card spot.

[DaveW]

Not sure why all the hate for Pefrey here, but he obviously had a horrible start. His season has been decent though and his start before this one was excellent. If you want to trade him via waivers let him get another good start or two.

He was flat out better than May as a starter this year and he gave the Twins a better chance to contend for a wild card spot.

It's not hate for Pelfrey, it's just the fact that he is long overdue to be taken out of the rotation for may. 10 starts, 6.22 ERA a WHIP approaching 2.00 That is just unacceptable plain and simple when you have a guy of Mays caliber and potential rotting away in the bullpen.

 

I have said from the jump that Pelf would make a good 8th inning guy, time to give him the shot.

[SarasotaBill]

Pelfrey starting is like going to the dentist.

 

The first three innings is like sitting in the lobby.

 

The next three innings is like hearing the drill grind on your teeth.

 

See if Pelfrey becomes a Wade Davis in the bullpen.

 

Bring up Berrios or Rogers for spot starts (8/15, 8/20, 8/29).

 

Besides the three spot starts, use the roster spot for a bullpen/bench player.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Not sure why all the hate for Pefrey here, but he obviously had a horrible start. His season has been decent though and his start before this one was excellent. If you want to trade him via waivers let him get another good start or two.

He was flat out better than May as a starter this year and he gave the Twins a better chance to contend for a wild card spot.

 

So contract-wise, what do you see for Pelfrey in the offseason? 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

My opinion was to let Pelfrey ride the luck train as long as he was able to do it.

 

The luck train ran over Mike Pelfrey quite some time ago.

[nater79a]

 

They had a chance to trade Pelfrey at the deadline and get something for him, low-level reliever likely, and they passed on it, so now he's just a sunk cost on a .500 ballclub who won't be around next year and blocks young starters on their way up.

 

It's definitely poor FO management but maybe a 6' 6" dude with a rugged expression and some New York swagger is worth something in the clubhouse. 

. 

Or something.

 

Funny you should say that... Pelf is supposedly one of the most popular guys in the clubhouse. Glue guy, if you will.  T.R. always says that is one of the traits he looks for.

[SwainZag]

 

Funny you should say that... Pelf is supposedly one of the most popular guys in the clubhouse. Glue guy, if you will.  T.R. always says that is one of the traits he looks for.

 

I've heard that as well.  I can't figure out how to embed this, but it was before one of the games in the Toronto series, Pelfrey seems like a fun guy.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/min/video/v335450183/mintor-pelfrey-mimics-doziers-warmup-routine/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU

 

 

 

[DaveW]

Yeah I think Pelf is a good guy and I think he would have some real nice success in the pen, ideally he could haves nice last couple of months for the Twins to become a 7th/8th guy and the Twins could resign him for a 2 year/6-7 mil deal to stick in the pen.

[SwainZag]

 

Yeah I think Pelf is a good guy and I think he would have some real nice success in the pen, ideally he could haves nice last couple of months for the Twins to become a 7th/8th guy and the Twins could resign him for a 2 year/6-7 mil deal to stick in the pen.

 

And this needs to be given a shot.

[nicksaviking]

It's clear that any competent lineup is going to get to him by their second time through more often than not.

Are you suggesting Cleveland has a competent offense? I thought Pelf got destroyed by a terrible one.

[ashbury]

They had a chance to trade Pelfrey at the deadline and get something for him

You know this how? Some players are worth literally nothing on the trade market, due to contract value relative to talent.

 

a 6' 6" dude with a rugged expression and some New York swagger

Seems to have been born on a midwest Air Force base, and went to both high school and college in Kansas. I guess you can pick up the necessary swagger anywhere. Not always by actually playing in NY though - that town has destroyed as many swaggers as created them.

[nokomismod]

If they want to try to extend May in a few relief appearances and then give him starts it would make sense now. Or bring up Berrios and let May begin next year as a starter.

I think the Twins did the right thing (keeping Pelf in the rotation earlier when they were solidly in the hunt), but now they should go to plan b.

It's tough watching the rotation struggling now along with the offense.

[nokomismod]

Yeah I think Pelf is a good guy and I think he would have some real nice success in the pen, ideally he could haves nice last couple of months for the Twins to become a 7th/8th guy and the Twins could resign him for a 2 year/6-7 mil deal to stick in the pen.

I agree it's time to try this as well as starting to decrease Hunter's ABs.

[jimmer]

 

Are you suggesting Cleveland has a competent offense? I thought Pelf got destroyed by a terrible one.

He did.

 

It was a horrible decision to keep him in the rotation over May and equally bad to keep him in it since.  He's got zero stuff (for a MLB starter) and having a little success by smoke and mirrors is never a good sign for continued success. Only on a team with a rotation as bad as ours over the last few years could a team somewhat justify his place in a rotation to start the season and there is no justification now.  Nor has there been one for over a month. 

 

Bad idea to sign him, worse decision to re-sign him, inexcusable to keep him in the rotation now.  Putting a guy who can't strike people out in the pen, especially as an 8 inning guy, would be devastating.

[jun]

After Boyer gets released and Santana moves out of rotation, that would be the time to deal with Pelfrey.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

 

Bad idea to sign him, worse decision to re-sign him, inexcusable to keep him in the rotation now.  Putting a guy who can't strike people out in the pen, especially as an 8 inning guy, would be devastating.

 

I agree. What makes people think that the guy with lowest K/9 of any qualified SP in the entire MLB, would some how be a great option in the 8th inning?! Maybe he should just be our long relief and swing starter in a pinch. He just isn't a good fit for the rotation OR bullpen. Guys like him need to play in front of elite team defenses, and get lucky to have sustained luck-based success. He is Chris Young, but without a good defense. Oh wait, his luck ran out too. Don't buy into low-talented short stints of success.

 

Taking May out of the rotation was both the right and wrong decision. The guy looks the part as an endgame shutdown reliever. However, endgame relievers are only valuable to good teams. If the Twins thought they had 5 equal to or better SP's, then he was the best fit as a backend guy...it's just that they should not have any reason to believe that Pelfrey or Milone, and maybe anyone in the pen, was better than May. WE saw this coming, like so many of their glaringly obvious blunders. Berrios has his most dominant start tonight, and the Twins SP's have been shelled recently...the obvious to EVERYONE decision here will most likely not be made once again.