So ... Do You Believe?

[John Bonnes]

As I right this, the Twins are one game away from the All-Star break. They have faced the two teams closest to them in the Wild Card race and swept one (BLT) and took two of three against the other (DET) including a win that I would describe as magical.

 

We've had three months of suprise results to help us forget four years of losing. We've seen them throw one giant monkey - er, tiger - off their back. We've seen a prospect come up and look instanty comfortable in the cleanup spot. We've added a $55 milion pitcher in the last week. And even in some of their weaker areas (SS and CF) we are seeing signs of life.

 

They are seven games over .500. They are three game clear of the nearest Wild Card team. They are trending upward. They have lots of trade chips, and seemingly the will to use them.

 

So, do you believe yet?

 

Give me up to three answers:

1) How many wins will they end with?

2) Will they make the playoffs (even if it's only as a Wild Card)?

3) Why do you say that?

 

I'll go....

 

1) 88 wins (64 losses)

2) Yes, as a Wild Card, but it won't matter because theyll win the Wild Card game

3) The veterans bought enough time for some of the young guys in the lineup (and rotation) to find their way. We'll remember this as 2002, not 2001.

[Dave T]

I'll go with 90 wins, Wild Card, starting pitching and Sano and Molitor.  IIRC, Twins made it to 10 games over .500 without Sano.  If he keeps playing like this, he's worth at least 5 wins, and I already had them at 85.

 

I have to say, Friday's win over the Tigers altered my opinion somewhat.  The Twins didn't play well against the Tigers all season.  Friday night they finally said "enough".  Today was like "Let us pound your crappy pitchers like they deserve".  Twins are not afraid of Detroit any more.

 

I really can't say enough good things about Molitor.  You want the latest thinking on shifts?  Molitor shifts the infield part-way through the at-bat.  You want leadership?  Molitor said after today's game that the guys are gaining confidence, and they will need that to be contenders.  I think he's going to be Twins manager for as long as he wants the job, kind of like Sparky Anderson.

[jorgenswest]

83 wins. No playoffs.

 

I think they will be close to a .500 pace the rest of the way which would put them at 85. However Perkins won't be perfect and they have 5 more games on the road. Hence 83.

[Brock Beauchamp]

84 wins. No playoffs because the kids falter down the stretch.

 

I still consider that outcome a HUGE win for Ryan and Molitor.

[stringer bell]

I have steadfastly stuck with 85 wins since the start of the season. The unforeseen positives and negatives have cancelled each other out and I think that trend will continue.

 

It looks to me that there will be a real cluster of teams close to 85 wins--a play-in game to make the play-in game? That would be a regular season game and require an 86th win, so I guess I'm predicting that Twins will lose a game 163 and not make the playoffs.

[jimbo92107]

I believe we are seeing the core of a great team emerging from the Twins minor league system. Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Santana, Hicks and Dozier, and later Vargas will power this team for the next decade. We might add Kepler to that, and Polanco.

 

Pitching is a lot harder to read, but the Twins certainly have some power arms for their bullpen rising through the ranks, and several promising starters are currently cutting their teeth on the farm.

 

For now, we get to enjoy something like the 1983 Twins, where a group of young stars started shaking up the American League Central. This team has some of that, and they are starting to believe that they're never out of a game until the last out. That's what makes the 2015 Twins one of the most entertaining teams in the league.

[Blackjack]

90 wins and make the playoffs as a Wild card.

 

Why? Starting pitching!!!!  Its the main reason they are where they are, it keeps them in most games and is only going to get better with the addition of Santana, the maturation of Gibson and Milone, PLUS they have some good replacement starting pitching available in May and Berrios if they need it. Secondary reasons why is that the young hitters are starting to learn their craft and the team is starting to believe in themselves.

 

Regardless of how they finish or how they do, I'm enjoying Twins baseball again!!!!!

 

 

[jokin]

 

I believe we are seeing the core of a great team emerging from the Twins minor league system. Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Santana, Hicks and Dozier, and later Vargas will power this team for the next decade. We might add Kepler to that, and Polanco.

 

 

You've evidently written off Arcia. 

 

LEN3 has written off Vargas.

 

Dozens doubt either Polanco or Santana can stick at SS.

 

And no heir apparent at C?

 

[Badsmerf]

86 wins. No playoffs. La, Houston, Baltimore, nyy, kc will all win more games. This still isn't a playoff team. Hughes is having a pumpkin year, it's only a matter of time for pelfrey/milone, Santana hasn't pitched all year and will be rusty, bullpen is a joke, lack of production is key positions. Again, this isn't a playoff team. They are a winning team, which is a nice change.

[jorgenswest]

I wouldn't write off any of the above before 1500 plate appearances.

[DaveW]

86 wins. No playoffs. La, Houston, Baltimore, nyy, kc will all win more games. This still isn't a playoff team. Hughes is having a pumpkin year, it's only a matter of time for pelfrey/milone, Santana hasn't pitched all year and will be rusty, bullpen is a joke, lack of production is key positions. Again, this isn't a playoff team. They are a winning team, which is a nice change.

If the Twins can get a little bit of bullpen help they can match any of those teams not named KC and maybe the Angels. NY, Houston, Balt? The twins can match them as is and a little inprovment in the pen and maybe at catcher makes me like the twins chances even more.

 

Houston is on a slide now and only one game up on Minnesota anyways.

 

 

I believe. I don't think we get the 94-97 wins it would take to win the division, but I really like our chances at one of the wild card spots, 88-90 wins should get it done. Sano, an awesome looking Hicks and a revitalized Mauer makes this offense look so much damn better!

[DaveW]

84 wins. No playoffs because the kids falter down the stretch.

 

I still consider that outcome a HUGE win for Ryan and Molitor.

I can't see them going less than .500 the rest of the way unless one of Sano, Mauer, dozier or Perkins misses significant time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can't see them going less than .500 the rest of the way unless one of Sano, Mauer, dozier or Perkins misses significant time.

I think it'll be close. A few games up or down from .500 from here on out... My nagging realistic side says it'll be down.

[DaveW]

What's fun about this year is the twins last 13 games are against Cleveland, Detroit and KC.

 

This could be a real deadly team in sept as well with sept call up guys like Arica and Vargas on the bench as PH and Buxton as a PR and defensive replacement.(assuming some or all aren't playing bigger roles than that anyways) Also, guys like Meyer, Berrios, etc could make the bullpen even deeper.

 

I think the twins could have a nice (sept roster advantage) over some of their main competition.

 

Either way, barring a complete disaster we will be watching some meaningful baseball games in August and Sept. That's what it's all about!

[David HK]

I think it will be a close call.  We've seen the comfort level of Sano, real resurgance from Mauer, Hicks, and a little life from Santana lately.  The starters, aside from Pelf, seem poised to continue giving the team a chance to win, as long as we can avoid our dumpster-fire bullpen.  

The questions for the grind of the 2nd half, through the dog days and beyond, are:

Which are the "real" Mauers, and Hickses, etc?  The ones we've seen lately, or those we've seen earlier?

Like others pointed out- can we remain relatively healthy?

Can the kids keep it up, and make adjustments as the league adjusts to them?

For the rest of this year, we still don't have SS sorted, and definintely need a C to spell Suzuki- maybe hit a little, and throw out some GD runners for a change, so I see those critical positions as big question marks.

 

For the front office: We Need BP Help!  And it looks like we have to go outside- and NOT 60-year-olds like Scott Atchison kind of help.  The Tigers just snatched up Feliz, and he had a good first outing. (98 mph- couldn't we use that in the pen?)

 

If we don't make the playoffs, I won't be gutted, because none of us expected to be in this position at Break-time.  But I do remember a certain 85-win team that made a lot of noise in the late 80's....  and that always gives me hope.

[John Bonnes]

I'll add this: if this team is playing meaningful games in September - and I think that is very probable at this point - I'm going to be beside myself with joy. Lord, could this be a fun late summer and fall. And I don't want anything more that that.

 

I mean it. Give me one random September weekday night where The Voice Of Reason and I feel like we NEED to go to a bar to watch the game with a community and have great passionate baseball conversations with strangers, and this year = "Success". I think we're two months from this. I can hardly wait.

[ashbury]

Do I believe yet? No. For a variety of reasons, I expect them to come back to earth. Staying above .500 isn't a given.

 

Put me down for 80 wins. That's a pessimistic view that I very much hope to be wrong about (to the upside), of course.

 

Why? I'll go with, "teams have halves out of kilter with each other all the time."

 

[Badsmerf]

I agree John. I'm just skeptical about the make up of this team being able to compete down the stretch. With a win total in the mid 80s, they will be playing meaningful games regardless. This will be a fun summer no matter what the end results are.

[Rosterman]

I've been amazed at the rotation.

 

But like the team as a whole, do you keep trying to get whatever you can out of placesetters or guys who won't be here in 2016, or keep trying the future where some shows life (Sano and Rosario) and some need more seasoning (Buxton). And even with the leash given to veterans like pelfrey and Duensing, how long of a leash do you give to Arcia, Danny Santana and Vargas.

 

The Twins have the ability to rotate pieces like a fantasy league that uses the waiver wire or excess players with glee. We could still see more Polanco and get a look at Kepler. I doubt that we will see Reed, Burdi or Jones this year as some thought, Unless the Twins make some changes in names, we won't even see Berrios, unless he comes up in September (who goes). And will the Twins give a 40-man spot in September to a job-well-done like Beresford just for the heck of it.

 

Right now want to see consistency. We do have it in the rotation, although I don't like ALL the pieces. The bullpen makes me shake whenever anyone not named Perkins is brought in for no armchair rhyme or reason. We need a shortstop...stick with Escobar, please. Hicks is playing like he wants a job. What do we do if he takes off. Where do we find places for everyone. We need a catcher, badly need a catcher, someone like Joe Mauer would be a dream right now.

 

It's how you play against your division. The Twins and Royals played a tight series. The Tigers have their weaknesses. Not sure if the Twins will hit 90 wins. It looks like the other divisions will be beating each other up pretty evenly, so a wild card spot is for the taking, and if the Twins can be well rested going into that final game, who knows.

 

The season ahs been a surprise. Terry and Co. did spend money this year, some last year. The results haven't been brilliant on the most part, but we can't fault him for doing so and we still got some life in those guys, too, who will play and pay no matter what they do for at least another season.

 

Again, we seem to have depth. No one is really playing All-Star-like, which is why we didn't get guys voted to the team except by default (except Perkins). We could have a rotation of five guys with 10-12 wins...no 18-20 winner, which is pretty amazing, considering the bullpen.

 

The tell, no cheap tickets for most Twins games. It is a watershed moment for the business office where they control the full-price cashin on at least half the tickets available for the game. It is a year in which NOT selling a lot of season tickets is actually helping the team's bottom line.

[jimbo92107]

 

You've evidently written off Arcia. 

 

LEN3 has written off Vargas.

 

Dozens doubt either Polanco or Santana can stick at SS.

 

And no heir apparent at C?

As part of the core of a great team, I don't see Oswaldo Arcia. Vargas can re-emerge as "that guy" hitting behind Sano, if he starts cranking homers in AA the way Arcia is doing in AAA.

 

Polanco and Santana are big question marks, but Santana has been looking much better at the plate lately. With him, it seems more a matter of controlling his emotions, which comes with more experience. Plus, Santana appears to be coachable at the highest level.

 

I'm not saying there isn't an heir apparent at catcher, but Stewart, Garver and Swim seem a long way off, and the Twins have had bad luck with catcher prospects since Ramos left town.

[diehardtwinsfan]

1)  90 wins.  That's very doable.  Offense and bull pen is the key.

2)  Wildcard, yes.  Division I doubt it.  KC is really making a case for being the team to beat (and on that, I'm pretty happy for Royals fans too).

3)  Above average to elite production in the rotation, 2B, and 3B.  Mauer returning to his former self offensively, and Hicks really looking like he could contribute well above average at CF. Sano is hitting well at DH also.  Pen is weak, but that can be addressed cheaply. 

[puckstopper1]

So, is it safe for us to get our hopes up?  After 4 years of some of the worst baseball in the Major Leagues, the Minnesota Twins sit here at the All Star break with the 2nd best record in the American League.  The also have a 4 game "lead" in the Wild Card race.  They have a solid starting rotation that is 6 deep.  They have a second baseman whose name could be in the under consideration for MVP and a closer whose name should be under consideration for Cy Young if they keep up their current paces.  Finally they just went 8-3 going into the All Star break against 3 teams that made the American League playoffs the previous season.  Yes, there are issues, but with the status of the American League right now, it is hard not to have some optimism that this team will be playing some very meaningful games over the next 2.5 months.  Thoughts?

[twinsnorth49]

Just enjoying the ride and watching the kids play. Whatever happens, happens but I'm optimistic about meaningful Sept. baseball.

[ashbury]

Same thoughts here as when Bonnes asked the same question the other day.

[drock2190]

They need a good setup man before I get too excited.

[Mike Sixel]

I think they have a clear shot at the playoffs. I don't invest much hope/happiness in sports' teams success failure anymore though. but if I did, I'd be excited.

[PopRiveter]

I'm convinced. The whole "regression" angle doesn't convince me that they are in for a fall, because a team is dynamic and ever-changing.

 

Sano's recent contribution has made such an impact on the overall picture. The lineup looks so much stronger this week than 2 weeks ago, and it is basically just a one-man change. 

 

I can easily imagine the same thing happening for the bullpen. Maybe Graham just makes the next step. Surprising heroes emerge in bullpens. Maybe Thielbar, Pressly or Achter have a standout second half. Maybe a higher-upside minor league starter like Berrios, Meyer, Baxendale gets a run in the BP to close out the year and takes it by the throat.

 

Of course what looks like a solid, deep rotation could take an abrupt downturn. Imagine Gibson blows his elbow, and Nolasco heals. 

 

All things said, if a team competes this deep into the season, they are legit. Even if they wilt from here on, they deserve to be taken seriously at this point.

 

 

[JoshDungan1]

The team's about as "for real" as it can probably get. Just gotta keep winning and the rest will handle itself!

[Dman]

Let me say I still have my doubts.  Beware the 2011 Pirates who I believe were above .500 and in second place in their division half way through the season only to finish the year 72-90.  Regression to the mean can be mean.  

 

I am enjoying this team though and they have been really fun to watch this year.  I hope they keep trending up even if it is against the statistical odds.

[jimbo92107]

PopRiveter mentioned how the addition of Miguel Sano seemed to make the whole team stronger. Very true, and I think adding Oswaldo Arcia would be another key piece of that puzzle.

 

Arcia is a player with significant limitations, but his strong suit - lefty power hitter that dominates rightie pitchers - is just what the Twins need batting after Sano against righties. If Rosario were more of a power hitter, this wouldn't matter so much, but right now the team doesn't have that one important component. Hunter and Plouffe have been taking turns trying to protect Sano, but the results are not great. Hunter still whiffs at too many outside curves, and Plouffe, tho improving, isn't as dominant against righties as Arcia.

 

Looking at the second half, this team is definitely "for real," as in it's a threat to shake up the American League. The Twins are becoming the talented team of kids that nobody wants to face in the playoffs, because if they get hot, they can beat almost anybody. Almost.

 

One factor that makes this team legitimate is starting pitching. The Twins have no "ace" per se, but they do have a solid group of guys that most teams would love in the middle of their rotation, and that includes the forth and fifth starters.

 

Unfortunately, the same rotation that's so solid 1 to 5 is also the team's weakness once the playoffs begin. A team like Detroit will bring Price and Verlander for games 1 and 2. We've seen how tough it is for this team to do anything against Cy Young level pitchers, and the Twins have nobody on that level to counter. In a short series, the Tigers go Price, Verlander, Sanchez. If it gets to a fourth game, they bring Price again. Checkmate.

 

A couple years from now, things may be quite different. By then, the Twins might have Jose Berrios as an ace, and even Alex Meyer. They may also have at least a few flamethrowers in the bull pen. However, right now they're pretty much stuck with the starters they've got, and even an improved bull pen won't be enough to get them past teams with shut-down starters.

 

On the positive side, all the Twins starters are at this point battle hardened vets. Even Gibson no longer has the big up's and down's in his performance, and I expect them all to pitch like veterans if this team does get to the post season. If anything collapses, it would probably be the fielding and hitting of the rookies, not having played in the crazy atmosphere of playoff baseball. Best thing Molitor could do is tell them, "Nobody expected us to be here. We're the total underdogs, and we have nothing to lose. Play your asses off and see what happens. Let's put the pressure on them."