How many current players are actually part of the future?

[goulik]

Examining our 25 man roster, I see a lot of "placeholders" on a playoff, division contending team. This raised a question in my mind

Two part question here, how many Twins that have played for the MLB Twins team this year will be a part of the 2016 25 man roster at any point? How about 2017?

I pose the question this way because we have Nolasco/Arcia/Etc currently not on the 25 man roster with significant experience this year that will be around...maybe...

Time to dig deep into your combined knowledge of upcoming MiLB players and MLB roster opinions.

[Seth Stohs]

Multi-part answer:

 

1.) I think we need to continue to think and be excited about the future. There is a lot to be excited about.

 

 

2.) But also, the team is in first place 60 games into the season. The future will take care of itself.

 

 

Now, to your question... which of these guys will be part of the 2016 roster? Impossible to know. 

 

Mauer, Hughes, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe (I think), Glen Perkins. Those are the only ones we know.

 

I think Rosario will be. I think Arcia or Vargas will be. I think Hicks can be. I think Gibson and May will be. 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

There are players that the Twins do not have under team control next year. Pelfrey, Hunter and some of the bullpen come to mind. I am hoping the Twins don't make them part of the future. They are doing well today but so were some of the other guys in the year they were extended. It is unwise to project the next year or two based on a half season of better than expected performance. Players will both regress to their mean and decline due to age.

[drjim]

 

Multi-part answer:

 

1.) I think we need to continue to think and be excited about the future. There is a lot to be excited about.

 

 

2.) But also, the team is in first place 60 games into the season. The future will take care of itself.

 

 

Now, to your question... which of these guys will be part of the 2016 roster? Impossible to know. 

 

Mauer, Hughes, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe (I think), Glen Perkins. Those are the only ones we know.

 

I think Rosario will be. I think Arcia or Vargas will be. I think Hicks can be. I think Gibson and May will be. 

 

Also a decent chance that Pressly and Graham will be. Argument can be made for Escobar, Fien, possibly Herrmann.

 

This actually strikes me as a pretty good percentage for a team.

[goulik]

I am excited about the future AND current team, that's part of the reason for the question! We have a good team looking at still improving even as the year goes by. Here we are leading a division, thinking playoffs and poking holes in the team and yearning for Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, etc and hoping Meyers, Gonsalves, etc pan out as well.

 

My guesses, 17 will reappear next year, 11-12 the year after. I am also guessing that approximately 22-23 of the players we see by the end of the year will reappear next year and17-18 appearing also in 2017. That's exciting to me!

[Rosterman]

I was discussing with my wife today after the Twins victory that a couple more fine starts by Pelfrey and he should have pretty good stock coming back in a trade to another team. She chastised me about why would you trade your best starter. Of course, he's a free agent at season's end and Mike will be able to turn that into a nice 2-3-4 year extension at a rate more than the Twins might pay. If we keep him, we just add to his worth with little or no return. We have too many starters and I doubt that santana, Hughes and Nolasco are going anywheres.

 

So, guys not around in 2016. Tommy Milton will go to arbitration again. Depending on the Twins need for a lefty, and what he shows the remainder of the year, it is 50-50 that he will stay.

 

Kyle Gibson COULD be on the bubble. He is a nice trade chip if the Twins get something that will fill a whole in return.

 

The bullpen is full of a bunch of also rans. Fien would be highly tradable. He has been consistent. Aaron Thompson and Caleb Thielbar will be around because they still have control and throw lefthanded. Duensing will be gone. Logan Darnell won't be protected. No to Tim Stauffer. The other names will stay in the organization if they pass thru waivers. A couple would be six-year free agents (Oliveros for example) and could leave.

 

If Chris Herrmann is removed from the 40-man, he will see work elsewhere. Suzuki still has anotehr contract year. Considering we aren't giving Pinto any rhythms behind the plate 1/3 of the way into the season, someone would have to blow the Twins away with an offer if he was to leave this summer. Considering no one did it last year. Be interesting to see who the Eric Fryer of 2016 will be.

 

Nunez is gone. Bernier should become an organization coach. The Twins have to consider the cost of Plouffe and Escobar and if they shall remain longterm with the organization, continue to be space fillers, or what. Daniel Santana is interesting. I never considered him the shortstop of the future and he now runs the risk of being jumped by Polanco, or will be jumped at some point by Nick Gordon.

 

Schafer and Robinson will both be gone. At worst, Hicks will be the forth outfielder. The Twins could always entertain offers on Arcia, Vargas or even Rosario. Rosario they have to look at like they did Santana. Give him another year and have him tank, trade him as a prime prospect for a hole in the organization, or hope is becomes a permanent part of the outfield which could be crowded with the likes of Walker, Kepler, and the return of Torii Hunter in 2016.

 

The Twins have to make a decision on Kepler and his worth to the organization.

 

Pretty much anyone of the above mentioned as not being around in 2016 could be jettisoned this season and replaced by a prospect.

 

 

[drjim]

Rosterman, your wife is brilliant.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

AA Southern League
15 Home Runs  (1st in league) 
13 Doubles
02 Triples
30 XBH  (1st in league)
46 RBI  (1st in league)
39 Runs Scored  (2nd in league)
114 TB  (1st in league)
77 SO (1st in league) - seems to be the main stat that matters
.573  SLG%  (2nd in league)
.891  OPS%  (4th in league)
This kid should be in the conversation as a major part of the future.  Each year people say he won't be able to do "it" against better pitching.  Until he proves me wrong, I have to be on his band wagon.  Get better yes, but no way is he not in my conversation about the future.

[SwainZag]

Gibson should be very much part of the Twins future.

[The Wise One]

Anybody who has a contract and is beyond arb years will be here for the lengthof the contract. Players that would be kept on longer would depend on how they are doing. The only contracts that come due at the end of this season are Pelfreu, Hunter and bullpen arms. Pelf keeps a sub 3 ERA I could see Ryan keeping him. If other bats do not develop Hunter could be back for one more year. For 2017, even Nostradamus can't predict when players will develop. However any current Lookout with an OPS over .800 is a better than 50/50 chance of getting to the Twins in the next 3 seasons. The current Twins bench will be elsewhere. Any Lookout pitcher with a k rate over 8/9 and is 25 or younger has a good shot to be up. After Perkins, the bullpen will be all gone by 2017. The last to go would be graham an boyer

[HitInAPinch]

 

Multi-part answer:

 

1.) I think we need to continue to think and be excited about the future. There is a lot to be excited about.

 

 

2.) But also, the team is in first place 60 games into the season. The future will take care of itself.

 

 

Now, to your question... which of these guys will be part of the 2016 roster? Impossible to know. 

 

Mauer, Hughes, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe (I think), Glen Perkins. Those are the only ones we know.

 

I think Rosario will be. I think Arcia or Vargas will be. I think Hicks can be. I think Gibson and May will be. 

 

Had to highlight your points there.  It's a GAME!  Let's step back for a moment and just enjoy it!

And I like your list.

 

Ahem, that being said

I'd add Escobar to the list.  He is, right now, the Twins starting shortstop.  Unless someone has a great spring training both at bat and in the field, Escobar is the starting SS next year.  What is widely perceived as the shortstop of the future [Polanco] is at AA and just recently moved back to SS after time at 2B.  No real need to rush.

 

In the list of outfielders, my gut tells me that Eddie Rosario is the only option that has earned a job for next year.  Let's face facts:  he is the only one who has kept improving.

 

I'd also consider adding Mike Pelfry.  And before it starts:  I KNOW, I KNOW, I KNOW!  And I'll toss in a smiley face for good measure He hasn't performed at this level in the past AND will he get injured again.  WHAT IF we're actually seeing the real thing?  A guy who's actually figured out how to pitch?  Maybe he belongs in the "Maybe list"?

[dbminn]

 

2016 Holdovers

SP: Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Hughes

RP: Perkins, Pressley, Graham

  C: Suzuki

 IF: Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Escobar

OF: Rosario, Hicks, Arcia

 

2016 Maybes

 P:  Fien, Thompson

 C:  Hermann

IF:  Vargas, Santana

OF:Hunter

 

Deadline Trade Bait if Twins Fade in 2015 (In order of possibility)

Pelfrey, Nunez, Fien, Plouffe, Hughes, Arcia, Suzuki

 

The "trade bait" category probably won't be relevant for one of two reasons: Either 1) The Twins stay in the hunt; or 2) Ryan won't be able to pull the trigger.

[gunnarthor]

I think a good chunk of the guys on this team will be here again next year. Obviously, some might have smaller roles.

 

 

[Thrylos]

For a competing team, the future is now.

 

Jack Morris at 36 and Dan Gladden at 33 were not part of the future of the 1991 Twins.  But it did not matter (well that future did not account to much either, but that is a different story)

 

Check the standings.  The Twins have to win now.   Does not make sense to think about next season at this point...

[Thegrin]

For the 2017 Twins lineup look at the current Chattanooga Lookouts.  We could do worse 

[Mike Sixel]

 

For a competing team, the future is now.

 

Jack Morris at 36 and Dan Gladden at 33 were not part of the future of the 1991 Twins.  But it did not matter (well that future did not account to much either, but that is a different story)

 

Check the standings.  The Twins have to win now.   Does not make sense to think about next season at this point...

 

This is a thread about that, if you don't want to discuss, why bother coming in and being mean to the OP?

 

Locks:

Mauer, Ervin Santana, Dozier, Perkins, Hughes, Suzuki

 

Should be a lock but I am not sure they agree given Sano:

Plouffe

 

Probably:

Escobar (no idea why, but they love him), Gibson, May

 

Good chance:

Nolasco

 

50/50 imo:

Rosario, Hicks, Hunter (I smell an extension coming), Vargas

 

 

 

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

This is a thread about that, if you don't want to discuss, why bother coming in and being mean to the OP?

 

Locks:

Mauer, Ervin Santana, Dozier, Perkins, Hughes, Suzuki

 

Should be a lock but I am not sure they agree given Sano:

Plouffe

 

Probably:

Escobar (no idea why, but they love him), Gibson, May

 

Good chance:

Nolasco

 

50/50 imo:

Rosario, Hicks, Hunter (I smell an extension coming), Vargas

If Hunter gets an extension I'm blaming you for putting it out into the universe so strongly!

 

Seriously, though … I think I pretty much think this with a few exceptions ...

 

I think Rosario and Hicks are definites into the the future (well, at least through next year), particularly if they DON'T sign Hunter, which I'm hoping they won't and don't. If they re-sign Hunter then one of Arcia (more probable in this scenario) or Vargas is gone.

 

I think a pitcher will get traded at some point … hoping it's Nolasco, could be Gibson or May, so I put them more iffy, but I think Santana and Hughes are locks, and whomever isn't traded in the above 3.

[DaveW]

Mauer, Ervin Santana, Dozier, Perkins, Hughes, Suzuki, Plouffe, Gibson, May, Escobar (UTIL guy until he isn't cheap), Rosario, Hicks, Vargas, Duensing (He will never leave), Graham, Pelfrey (I would give him a 2 year extension if the price is right , worst case scenario is he goes to the pen where he would instantly be an asset)

 

Find someone to pick up 25% of Nolasco's salary and ship him out.

[jorgenswest]

 

AA Southern League
15 Home Runs  (1st in league) 
13 Doubles
02 Triples
30 XBH  (1st in league)
46 RBI  (1st in league)
39 Runs Scored  (2nd in league)
114 TB  (1st in league)
77 SO (1st in league) - seems to be the main stat that matters
.573  SLG%  (2nd in league)
.891  OPS%  (4th in league)
This kid should be in the conversation as a major part of the future.  Each year people say he won't be able to do "it" against better pitching.  Until he proves me wrong, I have to be on his band wagon.  Get better yes, but no way is he not in my conversation about the future.

 

Adam Walker: Looking for Comps

[goulik]

Here is my simple reason why I don't think Pelfrey Will be resigned...

Santana

Hughes

Nolasco

May

Gibson

Berrios

Meyer (has too figure it out or he's in MLB Bullpen next year)

Milone (still cheap to keep but I think he's trade bait)

[jorgenswest]

 

Here is my simple reason why I don't think Pelfrey Will be resigned...
Santana
Hughes
Nolasco
May
Gibson
Berrios
Meyer (has too figure it out or he's in MLB Bullpen next year)
Milone (still cheap to keep but I think he's trade bait)

I wonder if J.R. Graham might force his way on that list.

[SwainZag]

Guys I don't expect to be with the 2016 team: 

 

SP Pelfrey

MR Duensing

MR Stauffer

MR Thompson

IF Nunez

OF Robinson

OF Shafer

 

On the fence: MR Boyer, MR Fien, OF Hunter, C Hermann

 

If Boyer continues to pitch like he has, I could see a 1 year to bring him back.  If Fien can revert back to his 2013 ways and close the season the out, I can see him getting arbitration as Duensing did this year.  I think a Hunter decision would come after the season and I think it depends on a few things.  How Hicks, Rosario, Arcia and Vargas play the rest of the season and if Buxton is called up this season.  

[goulik]

Minus two catchers (Suzuki and ?) heres next years hitters...

Sano

Plouffe

Dozier

Mauer

Polanco (Mientkiewicz says hes the most ready for the show of all AA current roster)

Hicks

Buxton

Rosario

Hunter (I think hes resigned for one more last swan song if we dont win the WS)

 

which leaves room for 1-2 of the following:

Santana

Escobar

Nunez

Schafer

Arcia

Vargas

Robinson

Walker

[goulik]

For a competing team, the future is now.

 

Jack Morris at 36 and Dan Gladden at 33 were not part of the future of the 1991 Twins.  But it did not matter (well that future did not account to much either, but that is a different story)

 

Check the standings.  The Twins have to win now.   Does not make sense to think about next season at this point...

I brought the whole topic up because we are not only able to enjoy this season but next years Roster crunch is filled with a lot of future joy too. This isnt the 91 team built for win now. Its built for win now AND for several years to come.

 

This isnt a topic of negativity, it is one of growing enthusiasm and excitement!

[Shane Wahl]

A master list:

 

Pitchers:

 

Phil Hughes

Ervin Santana

Ricky Nolasco

Kyle Gibson

Trevor May

Tommy Milone

Alex Meyer

Taylor Rogers

Jose Berrios

Tyler Duffey

Mike Pelfrey

Jason Wheeler

Glen Perkins

Logan Darnell

Tim Stauffer

Ryan Pressly

J.R. Graham

Aaron Thompson

Brian Duensing

Caleb Thielbar

Ryan O'Rourke

Blaine Boyer

Michael Tonkin

Lester Oliveros

Casey Fien

A.J. Achter

Pat Dean

Zach Jones

Nick Burdi

Jake Reed

J.T. Chargois

Brandon Peterson

Adrian Salcedo

 

Batters:

Kurt Suzuki

Chris Herrmann

Josmil Pinto

Eric Fryer

Stuart Turner

Joe Mauer

Kennys Vargas

D.J. Hicks

Reynaldo Rodriguez

Brian Dozier

Eduardo Escobar

Trevor Plouffe

Jorge Polanco

James Beresford

Levi Michael

Doug Bernier

Eduardo Nunez

Miguel Sano

Eddie Rosario

Oswaldo Arcia

Byron Buxton

Aaron Hicks

Torii Hunter

Danny Ortiz

Shane Robinson

Jordan Schafer

Max Kepler

Adam Brett Walker

Travis Harrison

 

I think I covered pretty much everyone. It hurt my fingers to type some of these for 2016.

[Dman]

I am not sure if we are focused on the 25 man or 40 man or maybe both but next year I see 7 guys that will likely need to be added to the 40  man so moves will need to be made.  I don't think the Twins will want to give up on very many young controllable guys until they know what they have.  My list of who might get added and who they might replace is below.

 

Byron Buxton > jordan Schaefer
Jose Berrios > Caleb Thielbar
Tyler Duffy > Ryan Pressly
Taylor Rogers > Logan Darnell
Zach Jones > Brian Duensing
J.T. Chargios > Tim Stauffer
AB Walker > Shane Robinson

 

It would be nice if they could trade Pelfrey high but if the Twins are in it then I really don't see that happening.  They could sign him again after this season but he will likely be looking for a three year deal and I don't see how that works out well for the Twins given the pitching they have coming up.  To resign Pelf they would have to get rid of Nolasco.  Not sure if that can be done.  Anyway the Twins are not dying for more prospects right now anyway they can afford to waste the opportunity to collect more  prospects to get more wins this year.

 

The year after this one unless trades are made it seem like the Twins will be giving prospects away as they have another 9 or ten players that might need to be added but likely only four or five are locks to be added.  This team is gonna have to go young soon.  Just a matter of who wins the position battles.

 

Kohl Stewart
Stephan Gonsalves
Stuart Turner
Zach Granite
Brandon Peterson
C.K. Irby
Ryan Eades
Alex Swim
Mitch Garver

[Shane Wahl]

Pick 40 of those 62, I guess!

[Shane Wahl]

Some possible formulations, part 1:

 

(complexity of trades and other moves left out for simplicity and discussion's sake--assume all trades return back non-40 man mid-tier prospects)

 

Youth, youth, and More Youth:

 

Pinto

Turner

Mauer

Vargas

Dozier

Polanco

Santana

Plouffe

Sano

Arcia

Hicks

Rosario

Buxton

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

May

Berrios

Meyer

Graham

O'Rourke

Tonkin

Z. Jones

Burdi

Perkins

 

(some interchangeability in bullpen with Oliveros (!), Reed, Achter, etc.)

 

(more formulations later)

 

 

[Andrew]

I'd also consider adding Mike Pelfry. And before it starts: I KNOW, I KNOW, I KNOW! And I'll toss in a smiley face for good measure He hasn't performed at this level in the past AND will he get injured again. WHAT IF we're actually seeing the real thing? A guy who's actually figured out how to pitch? Maybe he belongs in the "Maybe list"?

NO, trust me he isn't. This is a fluke and partly a deal with the devil himself. If we resign him to a 2-3 year contract I might loose it.... Again.

[Steven Buhr]

 

For a competing team, the future is now.

 

Jack Morris at 36 and Dan Gladden at 33 were not part of the future of the 1991 Twins.  But it did not matter (well that future did not account to much either, but that is a different story)

 

Check the standings.  The Twins have to win now.   Does not make sense to think about next season at this point...

I agree 100%.

 

It would amaze me if Twins fans, of all people, did not recognize how totally uncertain the future is, regardless of what we think "should" happen. This team, whatever the reasons are, IS competitve and can be right in the hunt. That doesn't mean you trade away all of your prospects for a handful of magic beans, but you also certainly don't throw away your best current players just because you're afraid their value may drop by the offseason, either.