Article: What To Make Of Mike Pelfrey

[Sam Morley]

 

What exactly does "low level plus starter type" return mean?  It sounds high for a non-elite rental player.  Bud Norris got a pair of interesting prospects and a competitive balance pick at the deadline two years ago, but he was 28 years old at the time and controlled for two seasons beyond.

 

In terms of contract, age, control, and even performance, Pelfrey is probably a lot closer to Correia, who we had to give away last August despite 9 months of healthy average starting pitching out of his previous 10.

 

Pelfrey's value to this team is almost entirely in his present-season performance.

Maybe it is high, if someone else had said the same thing, I would think it was high. It seems like you know what I mean by low level plus starter, but to clarify anyway: some one at low or high A with a plus fastball and average/potential second/third offerings, maybe someone even better or higher up but recently had TJ surgery? I think with Pelfry's velocity, he's probably more valuable than Correia, and all this hinges on his performance over the next couple months. If his stuff maintains, and he's healthy, and his era is between three and four, and teams are always desperate for starters. All that being said, objectively, I probably agree more with your critique than with what I originally wishfully hypothesized. 

[Parker Hageman]

Luck is luck.  Don't get it confused with stuff.

 

 

Pelfrey's stuff has been better this year (better velocity, better secondary pitch). Luck is the residual of design. Yes, he's been very fortunate that he has had players there but Pelfrey's had a lower hard-hit average on balls in play so far this year (weaker contact). 

 

Constantly adding baserunners is a bad program and playing with fire. Based on his FIP-ERA difference, if he does not shave his BB rate or increase his K rate, he's in line for regression.

 

 

[old nurse]

With the way Nolasco has pitched this year (and last) I am sceptical of a trip to the dl and 2 rehab starts making him the pitcher he was before he signed with the Twins.  He had a whole offseason to heal from last year. I do not think he did.I doubt he will make it back as an effective pitcher.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

It seems like I read that Nolasco would be making two rehab starts. Did anyone else see that or am I imagining things?

 

Not imagining, here it is (link)...

although it's not clear if Berardino is attributing that statement to Ryan, it sure seems like a strong possibility that Nolasco could make two starts, to give the team more time to decide.

 

 

Ryan suggested Nolasco's pitch count would be fewer than 80, so it's possible he might need a second rehab outing before returning to the Twins rotation.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It seems like you know what I mean by low level plus starter, but to clarify anyway: some one at low or high A with a plus fastball and average/potential second/third offerings, maybe someone even better or higher up but recently had TJ surgery? I think with Pelfry's velocity, he's probably more valuable than Correia

Thanks for the clarification.  I actually was reading it as two players, a low level prospect PLUS a starter which was more than what you intended.

 

And given that Correia was absolutely worthless on the trade market, being more valuable than him doesn't necessarily return anything interesting.  And as you say, Pelfrey's not even there yet -- he's got what, 1-2 starts here, with good results by bad peripherals.  Long way to go.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm all for delaying Nolasco's return too.

 

But if in a couple weeks, Pelfrey is sitting at a 3.30 ERA with bad peripherals, and May/Gibson are around 4.80 or whatever, I'd have no problem shifting Pelf back to the pen and leaving the kids in the rotation.  It's quite likely we could use the help in the bullpen, in addition to the young starters needing innings.  (And as a side benefit, if Thompson is still pitching well, hopefully it could force out an underperformer from the pen, like Boyer or Stauffer.)

[ashbury]

What To Make Of Mike Pelfrey

The sweetener in a big Brian Duensing trade?

 

Came here expecting this was a punch line contest. Leaving disappointed.

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins advanced metrics team likes that Pelfrey nearly always has a low earned runs total per hour pitched. 

One of the best posts I have seen here in a while. 

[gbg]

 

Still a lot of base runners on in his last start.  

 

Five hits and two walks in seven innings in his last start. One base runner per inning is acceptable in my book.

 

As to the questions of what to do with Nolasco - I think the reality is that we can't just stick him in indefinite rehab, per the CBA. Either he has to be back with the club or he's released, and I can't see the Twins swallowing three years of contract to release him.

 

Both Milone and Pelfrey have had one good start, one mediocre one, and one poor one so far this year. Any differences in peripherals are because Milone struck out more batters in his one good start. We can no more call Milone consistent than we can say that about Pelfrey yet.

 

As someone said above - each of our starters will get two more starts before Nolasco has to come back. A lot can (and will) change before then.

[DocBauer]

Where is the real Pelfrey?

 

What have you done with the real Pelfrey?

 

Can we keep this version of Pelfrey instead?

 

OK, so I said the same thing in a blog elsewhere. I liked the comment. Lol

 

I caught most of the game and was genuinely impressed. And I saw some of this wicked split fingers. And just when I thought he'd implode, he didn't. No guarantees, but I still think he has the right stuff to MAYBE re-invent himself as a quality bullpen arm: throw hard, mix in pitches, and only have to face a couple hitters,mor go through the lineup once. I just don't trust him.

 

To me he's that friend or cool uncle who is a really neat guy, who everyone likes and roots for, who always has the best intentions...but who always lets you down in the end.

[Sam Morley]

 

Thanks for the clarification.  I actually was reading it as two players, a low level prospect PLUS a starter which was more than what you intended.

 

And given that Correia was absolutely worthless on the trade market, being more valuable than him doesn't necessarily return anything interesting.  And as you say, Pelfrey's not even there yet -- he's got what, 1-2 starts here, with good results by bad peripherals.  Long way to go.

I probably should've ended my post without bringing up that trade scenario. It probably just distracted from any good points I might have actually made formerly. I don't think that hypothesizing whether or not Pelfry might garner any trade market value adds anything to the argument that he should continue to pitch. He should continue to pitch as long as he continues to pitch well. If Noloasco were ready to pitch today, I would not send Pelfry to the bullpen to make room for him. Neither would I send anyone else on the rotation to the bullpen or to AAA to make room for Nolasco. 

 

As for what to do with Nolasco...

 

What happens if the Twins just reassign him to Rochester? That's not the same as cutting or releasing him. We would still have to pay him according to his contract, yes? but wouldn't it force him to consider asking the club for a release so that he could seek MLB employment elsewhere, which wouldn't that then excuse the Twins from his contract?

[gbg]

 

 

What happens if the Twins just reassign him to Rochester? That's not the same as cutting or releasing him. We would still have to pay him according to his contract, yes? but wouldn't it force him to consider asking the club for a release so that he could seek MLB employment elsewhere, which wouldn't that then excuse the Twins from his contract?

He can refuse the assignment (as a veteran with more than five years of experience). He does become a free agent at that point, but it does not void his contract. So, basically, he'd get paid twice if another team signed him, and we'd still be on the hook.

[Steve Penz]

Pelfrey really did not pitch all that well did he?  He got into the same number of jams as usual, but then balls were hit at fielders instead of between them?  If  the double plays were just FC, wouldn't he have given up a good 3 or 4 runs and we would have probably lost?  I've never been a big Pelf fan, but results aside, I need to see a bit more.  I was fooled by Deduno last year.  Luck is luck.  Don't get it confused with stuff.

 

At the same time, Pelfrey owes us, and Nolasco may be worse yet.  Maybe Pelf really has turned a corner.  If that's the case, I throw him 120 pitches every 3rd day until the wheels fall off or his arm falls off, whichever comes first.  My bet is on the wheels, because I'm still not convinced he's even average.

 

I think this states things pretty well. We know what Pelfrey is and will be. A little success should not change anything. Guys who are early to mid twenties can "turn a corner", guys Pelfrey's age don't and nobody should be fooled. There were a lot of cases against KC where Suzuki had his glove low and on the corner and the ball drifted to the middle. He was lucky and more time will quickly expose that. Nolasco is no savior but we are married to him for now. When he is ready, Boyer should go, Pelfrey goes to the pen and May should stay.

[jorgenswest]

Nolasco's first rehab start is Sunday. It will likely take at least two as he builds towards 100 pitches. The 5 in the rotation have at least two more starts before a decision is made. If they are all pitching at 4th starter level or better, it would be foolish to replace them with Nolasco.

[Sam Morley]

 

He can refuse the assignment (as a veteran with more than five years of experience). He does become a free agent at that point, but it does not void his contract. So, basically, he'd get paid twice if another team signed him, and we'd still be on the hook.

ah. rats.

[nicksaviking]

Pelfrey just turned 31. He's definately a candidate for a four year extension from this club.

[bertrecords]

I notice that Pelfrey has his seasonal K rate (8) above his BB rate (7).  Definitely an improvement over last year.  Apparently, he believes he is accomplishing something.  Very disheartening having these stats being touted as serviceable for a SP.  That could only happen on a truly terrible team.

 

Could Pelfrey be an above average RP?  Maybe the velocity goes up with pitching one inning at a time instead of five innings at a time.   (Pelfrey has 51 IP over his last ten starts, so yes, he has been a five inning pitcher.)

 

Does Pelfrey want to continue a career?  He should try to stick as a relief pitcher.  Or, he could revamp his approach in the minor leagues to see if better results are possible.  But, the strikeouts and the walks indicate that what he is doing currently is not major league quality.  If he is too stubborn to understand this, Mike Pelfrey will soon find himself to be an ex-major leaguer.  Teams that trot out terrible starting pitchers year after year do not sell tickets.

[howieramone2]

Pelfrey just turned 31. He's definately a candidate for a four year extension from this club.

Thank you for your insight.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

As of tonight's Detroit game, Pelfrey is pitching very well. Nobody expects a whole season of this, but stranger things have happened. Ride the hot hand. Keep him in the rotation.

 

Ricky Nolasco? When you get back from your rehab, there is a new place for you to sit. Easy Eddie will take you out there and explain...

[Linus]

 

 

Pelfrey just turned 31. He's definately a candidate for a four year extension from this club.

Hilarious. Thanks for posting.

[Blake]

Well, after tonight against Detroit, this post became incredibly relevant.

 

I don't know what to make of Pelfrey now. Up until this year, Pelfrey would unravel and be done. Now, he unravels a bit, then gets better.

 

Maybe his health really was that bad the last couple of years?

 

Or, it's the old Twins way of finding a reclamation project that finally pays off. 

 

Although, Pelfrey as an 8th inning setup man really intrigues me now.

[h2oface]

 

He can refuse the assignment (as a veteran with more than five years of experience). He does become a free agent at that point, but it does not void his contract. So, basically, he'd get paid twice if another team signed him, and we'd still be on the hook.

I think getting paid twice is not correct. A player can be signed for the minimum by the other team, and the team that releases the player gets that amount of salary relief. The total paid remains the same, just split between the teams, with the signing team getting the player for the minimum.

[Halsey Hall]

I'd hand Rick the Mike.  You're going to the pen.

[DaveW]

Pelfrey has looked solid thus far, keep riding him while he is hot.

 

Also, I don't get why people are so incensed that he was upset about going to the pen (after out preforming Milone in the spring) frankly I like to see a few guys on this team with a little fire at this point..

[Mike Sixel]

Well, this is unexpected. Admittedly, it is only a couple of starts, but still........

 

I'd put Nolasco in the bullpen now, or Milone, but Pelfrey should stay in the rotation until he proves this isn't a fluke (or, the whole year being a success, which would be awesome).

[JB_Iowa]

Pelfrey has been a joy to watch the last 2 games.  There is a crispness to his pitching and he is maintaining a good pace.  (So good that the games have just flown by).

 

Given his pre-Twins record, I think you give him a chance to continue it.

 

I'd probably send Nolasco or Milone to the pen but then I've yet to see anything good from Nolasco in a Twins uniform so its hard to want him in the rotation.

[gbg]

 

 

 

I'd probably send Nolasco or Milone to the pen but then I've yet to see anything good from Nolasco in a Twins uniform so its hard to want him in the rotation.

We at least got one good month out of Nolasco last September. We've only seen one good start from Milone, including last year. At this point, I'd keep Nolasco in the rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A hallmark of Pelfrey's career has been inconsistency.  He alternated 80 and ~110 ERA+ seasons for the Mets, and likewise has had similar Jeckyl-and-Hyde (albeit more Hyde) stretches for the Twins.

 

That said, if he can pull another ~110 ERA+ season out of his hat, that would be fine by me!  Given his age and contract status, I probably wouldn't tolerate a whole lot of in-season inconsistency in pursuit of that goal, though.

[Boom Boom]

I've never been a believer in Pelfrey, but I hope he continues pitching well. I also hope the Twins don't hesitate to trade him if the opportunity arises, because some space has got to be cleared out.