Trade rumor: Buehrle

[gunnarthor]

https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/526405807345127424

 

So looks like the Jays will make Buehrle available.  The future HOFer (yep) is due 19m next year but Twins have long admired him.  Buehrle only has one year left on his contract so the return probably wouldn't have to be huge to get him, esp if the Jays are hoping for salary relief.  Jays are an old team and sorta stuck in that crappy .500 ish range.  

[beckmt]

he would only block pitchers we should be looking at this year.  At this time he is a number 3 or 4 starter and Twins have plenty of those types

[KGB]

Only if they are taking Nolasco in trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Only if they are taking Nolasco in trade.

I read this thread title and muttered "NOPE NOPE NOPE NOPE" to myself until I read this post.

 

Then I thought "hey, that's a pretty good idea... IF - and it's a mighty big IF - the Jays were willing to take on Nolasco's contract.

 

But ultimately, I don't see a point in that trade for either team.

[jharaldson]

I would think that picking up one the best pitchers in the AL last year for almost nothing on a 1 year contract would be fine.  Flip Hicks for Buehrle and trot out a rotation of:

 

Hughes

Buehrle

Nolasco

Gibson

May

 

Have Meyer, Pelfrey, and Milone in either AAA or in relief and know that at least 1 or 2 spots will open up during the year due to injury or failed performance.

[jharaldson]

12th best WAR amongst AL SP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

[nicksaviking]

With May and Meyer on the cusp, I suppose the Twins are going to need to get creative in their efforts to stay at the bottom of the league in strikeouts.

[Winston Smith]

The only way he blocks anyone is if they are better than him and four other starters. That would be a good problem to have. You can never have to much good pitching and right now we have a lot of iffy and few (one) good starters.

I'll never be against bringing in players that are better than what we have it's the only way you get better.

[DJL44]

Blocking? The Twins haven't had anyone as good as Buehrle since Santana left.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Blocking? The Twins haven't had anyone as good as Buehrle since Santana left.

Phil Hughes was better than Buerhle last season.

[davidc3915]

If it doesn't require too many prospects to acquire Buherle, it would be a great move.  He'd be a second pitching coach for the young pitchers and a great presence in the clubhouse and the community.  And...it would drive White Sox fans nuts to see him in a Twins uni!

[Brandon]

We could trade a few relievers and a prospect maybe.  Fien and Deunsing and Taylor Rogers maybe?  Also it would give us 4 starters who could win 12-15 games a piece.  That and if any of the flame throwers come up (Reed and Burdi) and our OF defense improves. We could theoretically have a team that can potentially win here or at least be in the hunt come next September.

[nicksaviking]

The only way he blocks anyone is if they are better than him and four other starters. That would be a good problem to have. You can never have to much good pitching and right now we have a lot of iffy and few (one) good starters.

I'll never be against bringing in players that are better than what we have it's the only way you get better.

 

Right, but this team has a history of giving the iffy pitchers a shot over real prospects.  So Buehrle may simply be blocking Logan Darnell and Tommy Milone, but they in turn are blocking Alex Meyer.

[tobi0040]

Twins need innings, consistency, and an upgrade in talent.

 

Innings - Mark has had 14 consecutive years of over 200 IP.  The last time he had under 200 was his rookie year when he was 21.

 

Consistency - ERA each year since 2007.  3.63, 3.79, 3.84, 3.79, 3.84, 4.28, 3.59, 3.74, 4.15, 3.39.

 

Talent - His career ERA of 3.81 would be the best on the Twins staff.  His 3.39 ERA last year would have been second, only to Hughes's career year.

 

Maybe the guy comes here and we tack on 1/13 to his deal.  If it only the years that scare off the Twins, it would seem like a good deal.

 

As far as blocking goes.  We would have six guys in my opinion.  Mark, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Meyer, and May.  May and Nolasco did not look last year like a guy that you just hand a rotation spot to.  They should have to earn them and it is likely Meyer starts in AAA anyway.  And that is before 1-2 guys get hurt.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Phil Hughes was better than Buerhle last season.

Not by ERA, RA9 (includes unearned runs), or ERA+.  Buehrle topped Hughes in every measure of actual run prevention in 2014, all while simply matching his 15 year (!) career averages in run prevention, peripherals, and durability.  As compared to Hughes whose BB/9 rate was one-fourth of his previous career rate (and who also set by far a career high in IP).

 

Not to knock Hughes, but Buehrle was pretty good in 2014, and it wasn't a fluke -- he's been doing duplicating almost the same exact performance every year for 15 years now.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd bring him on.  I do think a veteran of his ilk would be good for this team, especially if you can either flip Nolasco in the deal or in another one.  

 

He may also be a guy you could consider offering the fallback for compensation after next season, depending on his success.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Buehrle is available for anything close to a salary dump, and you can't snag a better pitcher in FA (and/or you don't like the Masterson/Morrow/etc. rebound candidates), I would welcome Buehrle in a heartbeat.  For all the talk about blocking someone, remember Twins starters had the worst ERA and lowest IP in the league in 2014 -- there is virtually no way such a staff can't add another quality starter from outside the organization.

 

Not only would Buehrle almost certainly make us better in 2015, but we could very easily have the inside track to retain him on reasonable, low-risk, short-term deals into his later career too (think recent Andy Pettitte with the Yankees, or even Carl Pavano for the Twins 2010-2011 sans injury curse).

[Thrylos]

Not convinced that he is much better than Milone at this point (their stuff is about the same) but totally convinced that he is not a "future Hall of Famer".  Ask Tommy John, if you don't believe me.

 

Barely an 85 mph FB that is guaranteed to decline as he further ages.  Jamie Moyer is available too..

 

I'd like to see a, someone like Meyer given a chance and b. what the rest can do with a better pitching coach, before having them get someone like Buehrle...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I will say this: a Buehrle acquisition probably would not assuage those posters with the pet peeve about incorrect name spelling.

[tobi0040]

Not convinced that he is much better than Milone at this point (their stuff is about the same) but totally convinced that he is not a "future Hall of Famer".  Ask Tommy John, if you don't believe me.

 

Barely an 85 mph FB that is guaranteed to decline as he further ages.  Jamie Moyer is available too..

 

I'd like to see a, someone like Meyer given a chance and b. what the rest can do with a better pitching coach, before having them get someone like Buehrle...

 

I think where we sit right now, the blocking argument is a false debate.  It is nowhere near a lock the five guys we think are starters next year are going to start with the big club, be healthy, and effective.  We also have nothing to suggest the Twins want Meyer on the team in April.  Add in spycake's comments about our ERA last year....

 

I can't remember a single year where the five guys penned in in October were the five guys the following year.

 

Lastly, I am not as worried about Mark B's other metrics.  The guy has a career 3.81 ERA in over 3,000 innings.  He has had several years in the 4 K's per 9 range and still an ERA meaningfully under 4.00.   So if his last three years of 5.6, 6.1, and 5.3 regresses a tad he should be okay.  He is outlier in that regard.

 

Milone's first full year matched Mark B's ERA, then he has put up 4.15 and 4.19 the following two, including an awful stretch with the Twins. We should not cut the guy, but we should not be counting on him either.

[James Richter]

Along the lines of what Thrylos just said, look at the last 3 seasons from:

 

Buerhle: 6.1 IP/GS, 5.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.76 ERA, 4.12 xFIP

Milone: 6.0 IP/GS, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.99 ERA, 4.20 xFIP

 

Sure, Buerhle is a bit better. But is he $19M + a prospect better?

[gunnarthor]

Not convinced that he is much better than Milone at this point (their stuff is about the same) but totally convinced that he is not a "future Hall of Famer".  Ask Tommy John, if you don't believe me.

 

Not to disrespect John, who certainly has his HOF supporters, but Buehrle is the better pitcher.  It's not quite a fair comparison as pitcher's in John's day pitched a lot more innings but, when comparing to era, Buehrle comes out ahead.

 

In 26 seasons, John finished top 10 in IP 4 times.  Buehrle managed it 7x in 15 seasons.  Including leading the league twice.  John's ERA+ is a solid 111, Buehrle's is 117.  By WAR, Buehrle was about 1.5 WAR/season better, avg nearly 4 WAR every year (w/5 top 10 finishes), while John avg about 2.4 WAR (and 4 top 10 finishes in 11 more seasons).  Buehrle was also an all star more often and won a few gold gloves as well.

[tobi0040]

Along the lines of what Thrylos just said, look at the last 3 seasons from:

 

Buerhle: 6.1 IP/GS, 5.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.76 ERA, 4.12 xFIP

Milone: 6.0 IP/GS, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.99 ERA, 4.20 xFIP

 

Sure, Buerhle is a bit better. But is he $19M + a prospect better?

 

You could take the same ERA numbers for Mark across 15 seasons, and get way more innings a year.  How about ERA+.  Milone 97 and Mark 117.

 

If the prospect is B level like we expect...this seems like a no brainer to me.

[gunnarthor]

Along the lines of what Thrylos just said, look at the last 3 seasons from:

 

Buerhle: 6.1 IP/GS, 5.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.76 ERA, 4.12 xFIP

Milone: 6.0 IP/GS, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.99 ERA, 4.20 xFIP

 

Sure, Buerhle is a bit better. But is he $19M + a prospect better?

Those rate stats are out of context.  Buehrle threw 140 more innings and over 2 WAR/season better.  

[Brandon]

Along the lines of what Thrylos just said, look at the last 3 seasons from:

 

Buerhle: 6.1 IP/GS, 5.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.76 ERA, 4.12 xFIP

Milone: 6.0 IP/GS, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.99 ERA, 4.20 xFIP

 

Sure, Buerhle is a bit better. But is he $19M + a prospect better?

 

The stat you chose to ignore is the 200 innings per season pitched That is what Buerhle brings to the table  A rested bullpen.  Buerhle would give us 4 starters capable of winning 12-15/16 games a season.  Plus whatever May and prospects bring to the table. Plus our bullpen is likely to implode next season from too much wear.  Especially if Nolasco comes back and gives us close to 200 innings as well.

 

Buerhle is one of many pitchers with only 1 year till FA so there are other options to trade from. But a pitcher who can give us 200 innings with minimal cost is a good idea. 

 

New Proposal:  Buerhe and $5 million for Millone, Deunsing and Pinto

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be up for that. Max Kepler and one of the AAAA pitchers or a RP prospect.....

[ALessKosherScott]

If we can talk about his tail battling-ness and ability to pitch to contract, I'm all in on Buerhle.

 

If we're going to try to win baseball games, I'm all in on seeing what affect a good defender in center will have on Millone and Nolasco.

[JB_Iowa]

Intentional r?  I have qualms about his ability to pitch o a $19 million contract plus a prospect or two-- unless the Jays take Nolasco in return..

 

We have a tendency to like old rivals  -- kind of like the one who got away.

[notoriousgod71]

Buehrle is exactly the guy I'm sure Ryan would acquire. A guy who pitches innings and gives up tons of hits.

[Major League Ready]

It is hard to understand how the FO gets absolutely flogged for acquiring soft tossers and now a guy who throws 85 is getting supported here.  Actually, I like Buehrle and I really like the pace at which he pitches.  I am just confused about the call for power arms and then the support for Buehrle. 

 

Most years it seems you need 7-8 SPs so would May, Meyer, and/or Gibson be blocked?  Maybe and maybe not.  If Millone is on the staff, two of these three projects will be blocked unless two of Buehrle, Hughes, Nolasco, and Gibson are injured.  So, you could look at as the odds of 50% of our starting staff getting hurts.  However, if it is Buehrle that goes down, the deal is obviously a bust so we are really talking about 2 of Hughes, Nolasco, and Gibson need to go down in the context of the deal making sense.  So, what is the likelihood of two-thirds of those SPs being out for an extended period.   And, even then, one of the prospects will be blocked.